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Looks like we might get a fight after all. Meta Platforms is planning to release a microblogging app called ‘Threads’. IGTV’s @AngelineOng takes a look at what this means for Elon Musk’s Twitter. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 (Video Transcript) Threads Now, tech news and media platforms are expecting to launch a new app. It's called Threads, and it is a platform where users can publish, share, or like short messages. Sound familiar? Well, it's pretty much like Zuckerberg taking on this space and Elon Musk. Twitter This Twitter-like rival couldn't come at a worse time for Elon Musk. His users are growing unhappy with the management of the app. Musk has just announced a temporary cap on how many posts users can read on the social media site. The rant will be directly linked to Instagram, which means using the same username as those using Instagram. It can easily put followers across using the new application. For more videos from us here at IGTV. Join us on Twitter at @IGcom and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Early Morning Call: JPY rises against major currencies The APAC region and Hong Kong's Hang Seng recorded a second day of heavy losses. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 06 July 2023 FOMC The minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the US left rates on hold showed a split vote, with some still wanting to push rates up, but the final decision to hold was to buy time and assess the need for further rate hikes. The USD climbed on the news, and equity markets around the world fell. Overnight in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, Hong Kong's Hang Seng recorded a second day of heavy losses. More economic data today, including the monthly US jobs report, automatic data processing (ADP) private payrolls, and Friday's non-farm jobs numbers, could all help determine the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate trajectory. The Reserve Bank of Australia After Tuesday's decision to keep rates unchanged, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike by 25 basis points. This is according to economists polled by Reuters. More than 90% of respondents, that's 23 out of 25, believe the RBA will increase its official cash rate to 4.35% at its next meeting on August 1. Also in Australia, the trade surplus unexpectedly rose in May to A$11.8 billion. Exports increased by 4.4%, while imports rose by a soft 2.5% a year earlier. Levi's Levi's has to fight battles on two fronts: on the production side, costs have been escalating with the cost of cotton, labour, and transport. Swollen inventories have also forced the group to ramp up discounts and promotions. Oil overview Oil prices rose on Wednesday. WTI briefly passed the $72 mark and hovered around that level after weekly inventories showed a larger than expected fall in crude stocks. Crude oil inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, according to the API. An oil analyst anticipated a smaller drop of 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks rose by 1.6 million and 600,000 barrels, respectively. UK banks Today, the big UK banks are in front of regulators at the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), facing accusations of "profiteering" for not adequately passing through recent rate rises. The Bank of England's hefty interest rate increases have seen high-street banks such as NatWest, Barclays, HSBC, and Lloyds increase mortgage costs steeply, but savers have seen their rates rise less fast. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has backed the FCA's request to meet the banks, saying "Increased interest rates must also be passed on to savers." Currys Elsewhere on the equity market, British electrical retailer Currys reported a 38% fall in full-year profit, hurt by the weak performance of its Nordics business, and said it would not pay a final dividend. Levi Strauss Levi Strauss is set to report earnings before the market opens. The street expects the denim maker to post earnings of 3 cents per share on revenue of $1.34 billion. That is to be compared to Earnings per Share (EPS) of 29 cents and revenue of $1.47 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Levi Strauss has seen its stock decline by nearly 21% over the past three months. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Wall Street posted modest declines overnight, following its return from the holiday break. Source: Bloomberg Indices Commodities United States Federal Reserve Gold Dow Jones Industrial Average Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 06 July 2023 Market Recap Wall Street posted modest declines overnight (DJIA -0.38%; S&P 500 -0.20%; Nasdaq -0.18%), following its return from the holiday break. Late last week, the Fear and Greed Index has reverted back to ‘extreme greed’ territory, which may point to near-term overextended price levels. That said, seasonality over the past 20 years remains in favour for a continuation of the upward trend, with the month of July delivering the second-highest average return and positive frequency across other months. The Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes came with not too much of a surprise, largely serving as a reinforcement for the Fed’s hawkish stance, which were presented in the series of Fedspeak beforehand. The additional colour is that ‘almost all’ Fed officials indicated that further tightening is likely, but settled at a pause at the previous meeting to buy time in assessing the lagged impact of current policies. Rate expectations remain largely unswayed by the Fed minutes, with a continued lean towards an additional 25 basis-point rate hike in July to conclude the Fed’s hiking process. Nevertheless, US Treasury yields found their way higher, with the 10-year yields surging to a new three-month high. The US dollar received an uplift (+0.2%) overnight as well, seemingly heading back to retest the key 103.12 level of resistance once more. The formation of higher highs and higher lows since mid-June reflects buyers attempting to take back some control, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has defended its key 50 level thus far. Further upmove above the 103.12 level could place a retest of its May 2023 high in sight. Source: IG charts Ahead, the US ISM services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be on the radar, which is expected to show a slight uptick to 51.0, following the surprise underperformance in May. With the Fed having their eyes on the core services ex-shelter prices, further signs of progress in the services sector’s prices data will provide more conviction for an impending rate pause. The lead-up to the US non-farm payroll report this week will also leave US job openings data in focus today, along with the initial jobless claims and ADP report. Any resilience on that front could point to strength in the US labour market which supports soft-landing hopes, but much will still revolve around a continued moderation in wage pressures, which will only be presented in the US non-farm report tomorrow. Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a negative open, with Nikkei -0.94%, ASX -0.63% and KOSPI -0.58% at the time of writing. Despite the stellar record of outperformance in the China’s Caixin services PMI since the start of the year (outperform 5 out of 6 occasions), the latest data has disappointed with a lower-than-expected read (53.9 versus 56.2 forecast). That joined the list of economic data pointing to a more lacklustre growth picture in the world’s second largest economy, which suggests more to be done in the second half of the year. The relatively quiet economic calendar in the region will leave Australia’s trade balance in focus ahead. The China A50 index continues to show a downward trend in place thus far, trading on a series of lower highs and lows since the start of the year. On the upside, a downward trendline and Ichimoku cloud resistance seems to be in the way, with the RSI still hovering below the key 50 level. Further downside may leave the 12,300 level on watch as near-term support, with any failure to hold the level potentially paving the way towards the 11,700 level next. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Gold prices continue to show signs of exhaustion An upmove in US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar has not been well-received by gold prices overnight, which failed to find much conviction for a move back above the US$1,940 level. Thus far, abating recession concerns have curtailed safe-haven flows, while rate expectations continue to price for rate cuts only in 2024, with the pushback in rate-cuts timeline compared to the start of the year driving some unwinding in gold from previous bullish build-up. On the technical front, its RSI continues to hover below the key 50 level as a reflection of sellers in control, reinforced by a breakdown of previous key support confluence at the US$1,940. Further downside may leave the US$1,900 level on watch, where previous dip-buying drove the formation of a bullish pin bar last week on the daily chart. Failure to hold this level could pave the way to retest the US$1,850 level next. Source: IG charts Wednesday: DJIA -0.38%; S&P 500 -0.20%; Nasdaq -0.18%, DAX -0.63%, FTSE -1.03%

The US dollar index finds itself in the spotlight as the market anticipates key labour market data releases, while simultaneously grappling with weaker-than-expected Chinese PMI and currency fluctuations. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar China Renminbi United States Economy of China Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 It was a quiet overnight trading session with muted trading volumes in the FX space due to US Independence Day. The US dollar index, the DXY, closed marginally higher at 103.08 (+0.09%). This morning, the USD edged higher again after China’s Caixin PMI Service and Composite PMI data came in weaker than expected. Following a better read on the Caixin Manufacturing PMI yesterday (50.5 vs 50.4 expected), both the Services (53.9 vs 56.5 expected) and the Composite PMI (52.5 vs 55.1 expected) have disappointed. The soft PMI numbers are another indication that the Chinese economy is slipping towards a double-dip slowdown and that further stimulus measures are required to reverse the spiral. Earlier this week, the Chinese currency, the CNY, gained four big figures (+0.75%) against the USD after tumbling -5.5% in the June quarter. Although the CNY is not part of the DXY, it directly influences other currencies in the DXY basket, including the JPY and the CAD, which are easing as I write. Regarding domestic data that can impact the DXY in the near future, we are looking at three key labour market data points scheduled for release later this week. What is expected from the JOLTS, ADP Employment Report and NFP? ADP employment report The ADP employment report will be released on Thursday, 06 July, at 10.15 pm AEST The ADP report isn’t an exceptionally reliable guide to Non-Farm Payrolls Nevertheless, the market expects a 240k rise in June, falling from 278k in May. JOLTS job openings JOLTS job openings are released on Friday, 07 July at 12.00 am AEST The market is looking for JOLTS job openings to fall to 9,900k in May from a red-hot rise of 10,103k in April Last month’s robust number confirms how tight the labour market still is. Unless some cooling is seen shortly, it will increase the pressure on the Fed to extend its tightening cycle. NFP Non-Farm Payrolls is scheduled for release on Friday night, 07 July, at 10.30 pm AEST The market is looking for payrolls to rise by 225k in June, slowing from 339k in May The unemployment rate is expected to ease to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May The participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 62.6% Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% in June, allowing the annual rate to ease to 4.2% from 4.3%. DXY technical analysis During the first half of 2023, the US dollar index, the DXY, tested and held support at 101.00/80 on three separate occasions before bouncing to a high of 104.69 in late May. While the downside has been well protected near 101.00/80, overhead resistance is firming above 104.00, via the 200-day moving average, currently at 104.73 and the downtrend resistance that connects the March 105.88 high with the May 104.69 high, coming in at 104.30ish. Should the DXY move towards the range extremes mentioned above, we suspect that it will initially hold. Aware that if they were to break on a sustained basis, it would likely see a test of support at 97.00 on the downside or 106.00 on the topside. DXY index daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of July 5, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Look Ahead 6/7/23: JOLTS; Australia trade balance; Curry’s; Levi’s US jobs-related data including the JOLTS will be key ahead of the NFP report on Friday. Australia’s trade surplus is expected to narrow. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 Watch out for what electronics retailer Curry’s and denim clothing giant Levi’s say about margins in a tough economic environment.

Charting the Markets: 05 July FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 on a negative footing. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY all drop back in morning trading And Brent crude oil and natural gas prices rise while wheat prices drop like a stone. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 on a negative footing Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the US re-opens after its Independence Day holiday. Source:Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 FTSE 100 slips on risk-off sentiment The FTSE 100 trades back in negative territory for the year as it is impacted by the knock-on effect of a five-month low for China's Caixin services PMI which hit sentiment in Asia. Last Thursday’s low at 7,459 may thus be revisited. Below it lies the May trough at 7,433. Resistance above Monday’s low at 7,514 can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and at this week’s high at 7,562 to 7,569. While it caps, the FTSE 100 should remain under pressure. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 continues to slide this week The DAX 40 shot up strongly at the end of last week to finish the second quarter on a high and early this week rose to 16,211 before coming off again as sentiment deteriorated on weaker data and Germany’s trade surplus falling to a five-month low. The 8 June low at 15,886 may thus soon be tested, a fall through which would push the 15,710 late June low back to the fore. Good resistance above the 29 June high at 16,000 comes in between the late May and early June highs at 16,080 to 16,115. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 back from Independence Day holiday The S&P 500 is expected to trade on a weaker footing as markets re-open after Tuesday’s Independence Day holiday ahead of the publication of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and as China imposes export curbs on metals used in semiconductors and EVs. This points to some renewed US-China tensions. The June peak at 4,447 is to be revisited, below which there is no support to speak of until Thursday’s high at 4,405. Only a bullish continuation and rise above last week’s 14-month high at 4,458 could lead to the April 2022 high at 4,513 being reached. Source: ProRealTime

It's the release of the minutes of the Fed's last rate meeting at which it left the Federal Funds Rate on hold. The pause in rates followed a run of consecutive rate hikes at every meeting since March 2022. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 The updated economic projections suggest rates may reach 5.6% by year-end, thus suggesting two more increases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reinforced the view that the board is leaning towards two rate hikes and hasn't ruled out consecutive-meeting rate increases. The latest economic projections from the Fed indicate that the fed funds rate is expected to gradually fall to 4.6% in 2024. (Video Transcript) Fed minutes It's the release of Federal funds minutes of the last meeting show that we saw the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep interest rates on hold following the Independence Day holiday. As it does, the release today will force people back to their desks, I guess bringing them back to reality after what's a long weekend for many been. The pause in rates followed a run of consecutive rate hikes at every meeting since March 2022. The updated economic projections suggest rates may reach 5.6% by year's end, thus suggesting more rate increases. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, seen here recently reinforcing the view that the board is leaning towards two rate hikes and hasn't ruled out consecutive meeting rate increases, The latest economic projections from the Fed indicate that the Fed funds rate is expected to gradually fall to 4.6% in 2024. USD Let's show you what's happening with the USD. This is the dollar basket up for a third day in a row today. Despite the fact we saw the US markets out yesterday, money was going into the dollar, and I think the minutes may reveal the board's intention is to keep interest rates higher for an extended period of time, with a rate hike possibly delayed until the end of the first quarter or second quarter of 2024 if inflation falls towards that desired trajectory. EUR Let's take a look at the EUR very quickly, all the way down, not quite as low as we've been in the last week or so, but at 1.77 looking weak. So, if you're selling euros at the expense of the USD, your stock goes up above the 110 level, currently trading at 1 to 876.

Brent crude oil and natural gas prices rise while wheat prices drop like a stone Outlook on Brent crude oil, Chicago wheat and natural gas amid weakening manufacturing activity in major economies. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 Brent crude oil prices continue to rise Brent crude oil is still grappling with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $75.97 per barrel for the third day in a row as Saudi Arabia earlier this week announced that its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day would last a month longer, until the end of August. Weakening manufacturing activity in major economies is putting pressure on the oil price, though, as did this morning’s Caixin China services PMI which fell to a five-month low. Only a rise above Monday’s $76.56 high could lead to the late June high and the May-to-July resistance line at $77.20 to $77.24 being retested. If overcome, the May and June highs at $78.17 to $78.52 may be reached as well. Minor support can be found around the late June high at $75.07. The short-term uptrend will remain in play while last week’s low at $72.28 underpins. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices fall off a cliff Chicago Wheat’s rally to a four-month high at $7.70 in June on worries about Midwestern dryness and political instability in Russia has been followed by just as steep a decline. The reason for this slide is improving weather in the US. The wheat price is now trading back below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $6.53 and nears the $6.34 mid-June low, a fall through which looks imminent. Further downside targets are the $6.31 late May high, the $6.20 early June low and the psychological $6.00 region. Resistance above the $6.56 early June high can be spotted at the $6.71 May peak. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas prices consolidate around the $2.75 mark Natural gas price rises are running out of steam. The recent decline from the $2.930 MMBtu near four-month late June high has so far taken it to last week’s low at $2.617 as Norway hopes to soon ramp up production. Since last week natural gas has been trading in a low volatility sideways trading range above its one-month tentative uptrend line at $2.686. Immediate resistance sits between the May and last Friday’s highs at $2.786 to $2.824 and support below the support line at Tuesday’s $2.661 low. Below it lies last week’s low at $2.617. Source: ProRealTime

This week, Fed Chair Powell discussed the FOMC's current perspective at the ECB Forum. Join IG Strategists Frank Kaberna and Paul Cappetta to learn how to interpret how central banks speak and how their language can translate to market movements. They also analyze this week's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data forecast and what the data release could mean for the strength of the US dollar. Intro: (0:00) What did Fed Chair Powell say?: (1:45) Central banks monitor inflation: (5:12) Global interest rates: (6:33) Core PCE data: (8:57) What does a change in US PCE mean for forex markets?: (11:16)

This week, Japanese yen is experiencing price extremes in major pairs such as EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. Traders watch as the euro-yen pair nears 160.00 for the first time in over a decade, and the US dollar similarly climbs towards 150.00 against the yen. IG Strategist Frank Kaberna investigates the coincidences that have occurred between stock market crashes and currency price extremes. Learn how these traditionally uncorrelated assets have experienced similar trends during past times of market stress and what to look for this time around. Intro: (0:00) EUR/JPY hits new high since 2008: (0:18) USD/JPY back to high since 1998: (2:24) Forex extremes correlate to crashes: (3:08) Why do price extremes tend to correlate: (4:26) Will extremes subside without a crash: (6:10)

Japan remains one of the top economies in the world by GDP, yet recently the Japanese yen has slowed considerably compared to other major currencies. IG Strategist Frank Kaberna compares relative price extremes in various yen pairs as traders speculate if prices will revert to the mean or break through to new highs. Learn how using IG client sentiment can reveal how traders are opening positions across pairs to get a better sense of where the forex markets can go. Intro: (0:00) USD/JPY back to high since 1998: (0:45) EUR/JPY hits new high since 2008: (1:45) GBP/JPY hits new high since 2015: (2:32) IG client sentiment around JPY pairs: (3:22) Global interest rate divergences: (5:08)

Early Morning Call: APAC indices fall as China's service activity slows The Hang Seng was by far the worst performer in APAC on Wednesday as traders digested the latest service activity data in China. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 July 2023 The Hang Seng The Hang Seng was by far the worst performer in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region on Wednesday as traders digested the latest service activity data in China. The Caixin services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.9 in June from 57.1 in May, the lowest reading since January. The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week. On Monday, the Caixin manufacturing PMI managed to keep its head above the water in June, falling to 50.5. This means that the composite PMI, which compiles manufacturing and services activity, is down to 52.5, making it a sixth straight month of expansion. Macroeconomic indicators The market awaits a few macroeconomic indicators today at 10AM, the producer price index in the eurozone is expected to be down -13% in May year-on-year (YoY), and later in the afternoon, US factory orders are forecast to rise 0.8% in May month-over-month (MoM). The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of its last meeting, at which it left the Federal Funds Rate on hold. The pause in rates followed a run of consecutive rate hikes at every meeting since March 2022. The updated economic projections suggest rates may reach 5.6% by year's end, thus suggesting two more increases. The Federal Reserve Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reinforced the view that the board is leaning towards two rate hikes and hasn't ruled out consecutive-meeting rate increases. The latest economic projections from the Fed indicate that the fed funds rate is expected to gradually fall to 4.6% in 2024. Furthermore, the minutes may reveal the board's intention to keep interest rates higher for an extended period, with a rate hike possibly delayed until the end of the first quarter or second quarter of 2024 if inflation falls towards the desired trajectory. AO World AO World said profit recovered in its 2022–23 year as it benefited from a plan to reduce costs and improve margins. The British online electricals group's financial year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (FY EBITDA) reached 45 million pounds, in line with guidance and up from 23 million pounds in 2021–22. Revenue fell 17% to 1.14 billion pounds. Oil overview Oil prices remained range-bound after two of the world's largest oil producers said earlier this week, they would cut supplies further to support prices. Saudi Arabia's voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day will be extended for another month to include August, and Russia will cut oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August. Soft commodities On the soft commodities market, soybeans rose over 5% last Friday, while corn prices have been falling. At the end of last week, the US Department of Agriculture announced that farmers in Illinois, Minnesota, and North Dakota had shifted from soybeans to corn. Analysts are now concerned that soybean supplies will be tight and expect the soybean and soybean oil markets to remain bullish. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

WTI slips on demand woes and orange juice on supply hopes while silver recovers Outlook on WTI, silver and orange juice as US factory activity shrinks and OPEC+ cuts its output further still. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 WTI slips back as investors mull outlook WTI’s recent advance ran out of steam close to its May-to-July downtrend line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $71.88 to $71.96 despite Saudi Arabia announcing that it would prolong its 1 million barrel per day (bpd) voluntary output cut until the end of August. Worries about slowing US factory activity trumped additional Russian oil export reductions by 500,000 bpd next month which brings the total amount of output cuts by OPEC+ members to 5.16 million bpd as the group of major oil producers tries to shore up prices. Little trading volume is expected to go through the oil markets on Tuesday as the US is celebrating its 4 July holiday. A slip through Monday’s low at $69.77 could lead to the mid-June low at $68.15 being revisited. Immediate resistance sits at Thursday’s high at $70.65, followed by Friday’s high at $71.10 and then Monday’s peak at $71.82. Source: ProRealTime Silver price back above the 200-day simple moving average The price of silver continues to oscillate around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $22.62, as it has done over the past week, inversely mimicking US dollar moves. Last week’s high at $23.10 is currently in sight, a rise above which would engage the early to mid-June lows at $23.22 to $23.25. Further up lies the May-to-June downtrend line at $23.48. Slips should find support along the 200-day SMA at $22.62. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice falls through uptrend line Front month orange juice futures gapped lower and now trade below their January-to-June uptrend line at $2.5455 as supply of oranges seems to be picking up again. The early June low at $2.4909 is now within reach, a fall through which would have medium-term negative implications and target the May trough at $2.3807. Resistance can be spotted at this week’s $2.5232 to $2.5388 gap on the daily chart and along the breached 2023 uptrend line at $2.5455. The medium-term downtrend remains in play while last week’s high at $2.6572 isn’t overcome. Below it, the June resistance line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) can be spotted at $2.6070 to $2.6253. Source: ProRealTime

Dow & Nasdaq 100 return to recent highs, while Nikkei 225 drops back Both the Dow and Nasdaq 100 have seen a revival in recent days, while the Nikkei’s bounce has stalled this morning. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 Dow back above 34,000 The index has surged to the 34,000 once more, and sits just below its previous June high. The bounce from the 50-day SMA has created a higher low, and further upside seems likely while this remains in place. Above 34,500 the next target would be 35,000. A drop back below 33,640 would be needed to suggest that a new leg lower is in play. Source:ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 still firmly in uptrend As with the Dow, the index has returned to the highs seen in early June. The uptrend has recovered from the weakness of mid-June, and now a push above 15,260 will open the way to 15,760, and on from there towards 16,630, the record highs of 2021. The price remains overstretched, but the recent recovery has cancelled out any bearish view in the short-term. A reversal back below 14,700 would be needed to suggest fresh short-term weakness has appeared. Source:ProRealTime Nikkei 225 edges lower The index has fallen back this morning, as markets continue to look nervously for any signs of intervention in the FX market by the Ministry of Finance, something that is unlikely to leave the index unaffected. Recent weakness stabilised around 32,500, so a move below this would be needed to open the way to more downside. This might then bring the 50-day SMA into play. A revival above 33,700 would put the price on an upward footing once more, and suggest a move back to 34,000. Source:ProRealTime

Major US indices drifted higher on lighter volume to deliver a positive start to the new quarter, as we head into the Independence Day holiday. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Commodities United States China United States dollar Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 Market Recap Major US indices drifted higher on lighter volume to deliver a positive start to the new quarter, as we head into the Independence Day holiday. Overnight, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data has been mixed with a slight underperformance (46 versus 47 consensus). Some reasons to cheer may be the significant progress in pricing pressures for US manufacturers (41.8 versus 44.0 consensus) and some cooling of employment (48.1 versus 50.8 consensus), but new orders remained in contractionary territory for the 10 straight months as a reflection of some downside risks to growth ahead. Along with stronger-than-expected US construction spending, expectations remained firm that the Fed will deliver its last 25 basis-point (bp) hike later this month to conclude its hiking cycle. US Treasury yields closed higher despite an initial dip, while the US dollar continues to show some signs of exhaustion with a subdued close. Gold prices have been trading on a descending wedge pattern thus far, with a move below its support confluence at the US$1,940 in mid-June this year suggesting sellers taking control and leaves the near-term trend tilted to the downside. CFTC data has revealed further unwinding of net-long positioning from money managers last week. Thus far, the RSI on the daily chart has also struggled to reclaim its 50 level. Immediate support at the US$1,900 level will be crucial to hold next, with some dip-buying seen last week with the formation of a bullish pin bar. Failure for the US$1,900 level to hold could potentially pave the way to retest the US$1,850 level next. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a mixed open, with Nikkei -1.06%, ASX +0.12% and KOSPI -0.11% at the time of writing. An upside surprise in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI has paved the way for some gains in Chinese equities yesterday, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.1%, following a similar gain in the Hang Seng Index in the earlier session. The recent tit-for-tat move from China to restrict export of chip-making metals to US could take some focus, which may affect longer-term production rather than near-term impact. While it raises the prospects for more tit-for-tat escalation between US and China, tensions may still seem measured for now, as both economies countries are still trying to cope with their respective economic issues (US inflation, China’s growth). The day ahead will bring focus to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision. While the recent 13-month low in Australia’s May inflation data has anchored views of a potential rate pause at the upcoming meeting, markets are still pricing for any upcoming pause to be a temporary move as compared to the end of tightening. That will leave the policymakers’ guidance on close watch. Any acknowledgement of the recent downside surprise in inflation could raise hopes for a prolonged rate pause, but on the other hand, keeping its firm stance for additional tightening ahead could be seen as hawkish and provide an uplift for the AUD. The AUD/USD is attempting to bounce off a previous resistance-turned-support trendline but much awaits for buyers, with the RSI still hanging below the 50 level while its 100-day MA serves as immediate resistance to overcome. Failure to hold the trendline support over the coming days at the 0.658 level could pave the way to retest its year-to-date low at the 0.646 level. On the upside, any reclaim of its 100-day MA will leave the key 0.680 level on watch. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: NZD/USD trading on descending channel pattern Since the start of the year, the NZD/USD has been kept firmly within a descending channel pattern on the weekly chart, with the weekly RSI struggling to cross above the key 50 level as a reflection of sellers in control. The series of lower highs over the past year, along with a failure to move above its Ichimoku cloud resistance (weekly) on past three interactions, has kept a downward trend in place for now. With New Zealand’s economy falling in a technical recession ahead of the US, the pressure for rate cuts may be mounting for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) versus the US Fed, where pockets of economic resilience are still presented in the US. The US economic surprise index currently hangs at its three-month high. Immediate resistance for buyers may be at the 0.625 level, where a resistance confluence stands (Ichimoku cloud, upper channel trendline, downward trendline resistance). Any reclaim of the 0.625 level could pave the way to retest the 0.654 level next. Until that occurs, the current downward bias remain, which could leave the lower channel support on watch at the 0.600 level. Source: IG charts Monday: DJIA +0.03%; S&P 500 +0.12%; Nasdaq +0.21%, DAX -0.41%, FTSE -0.06%

RBA keeps rates on hold, but leaves door open to more hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates at 4.10%, but didn't rule out further tightening ahead. IGTV’s @AngelineOng takes a look at the details and the impact on the Australian dollar. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023

RBA pauses rate hike for July but warns it may increase in the future. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation Market Wage growth Interest rate ASX Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 At its Board Meeting today, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate on hold at 4.10%. The RBA's decision to keep rates on hold today was largely expected by the rates market (80% priced). In contrast, about two-thirds of the forecasting community predicted a rate hike. The RBA's reasons for staying on hold echoed in part why it paused its rate hiking cycle in April - to assess the impact of a cumulative 400bp or rate hikes over the past fourteen months. "Interest rates have been increased by 4 percentage points since May last year", and today's pause "will provide some time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook." The RBA elected to look through strength in June across employment, retail sales, building approval and a fourth consecutive monthly rise in housing prices to focus on a welcome fall in inflation. "Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, and the monthly CPI indicator for May showed a further decline." While at the same time sounding less concerned about the possibility of wage growth spiralling out of control. "At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up." While a pause will no doubt see mortgage holders sigh in relief, the RBA left the door open to future rate hikes. "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve." The RBA noted that the most critical factors behind the next move in rates would be "developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market". The rates market is almost fully priced (78%) for a 25bp rate hike by September which would take the cash rate to 4.35%. The following incoming data will be closely scrutinised for clues around when and how much further the RBA might tighten. RBA Governor Lowe's speech tomorrow (Wednesday, July 12 at 1.10 pm) RBA Meeting Minutes (Tuesday, July 18 at 11.30 am) Labour Force report for June (Thursday, July 20 at 11.30 am) Q2 inflation data (Wednesday, July 28 at 11.30 am) Retail Sales (Thursday, July 28 at 11.30 am) What happened to the ASX 200? The ASX 200 was trading down 10 points at 7235 before the RBA announcement. The RBA's on-hold decision prompted a 50-point bounce to a high of 7285.80 – a move that should extend in the coming days above 7300, potentially towards the top of its recent range at 7360/90. The Financial (+0.94%), Energy (+0.90%) and Real Estate (0.76%) sectors have led the gains. In contrast, the Health Care (-0.12%) and Industrial (-0.14%) sectors are trading lower. ASX 200 daily chart Source: TradingView

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are bracing for probable interest rate hikes following persisting inflation woes. While DAX retains potential for continued growth, FTSE confronts a potentially deeper decline. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation DAX Technical analysis United Kingdom Macroeconomics Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 04 July 2023 Lagarde's hawkish tone echoes in ECB's path ahead Last week, hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde at the ECB's Sintra conference solidified expectations of an rate hike in July. Lagarde's comments came ahead of the release of EA inflation data, which would have provided little comfort to ECB hawks. While EA headline inflation eased to 5.5% YoY in June from 6.1%, it remains well above the ECB's target of 2%. Additionally, core inflation increased in June to 5.4% YoY from 5.3% prior. Neither reading gives much reason to push back on market pricing of another two 25bp rate hikes, which would take the ECB's official deposit rate to 4% by year-end. UK markets reel from inflation shock In the UK, markets are still dealing with the fallout of May's recent horrific inflation data print. The rates market is almost fully priced for another 125 bp of rate hikes from the BoE over the next eight months, taking the BoE's official cash rate to 6.25%. Just one month ago, the market was looking for the BoE's terminal rate to land at 5.50%. The savage repricing higher in the rates market has revived fears of a recession and weighed on the FTSE in the process. DAX technical analysis Last month the DAX printed a fresh all-time high at 16572 before bearish divergence via the RSI indicator undermined the move and kept the DAX trading within the confines of its upward-sloping trend channel. Providing the DAX remains above support from the bottom of the trend channel 15950ish and last week's 15,833 low allow for the DAX to continue to edge higher. Aware that should the DAX see a sustained break of 15,950ish and then falls below the recent swing low at 15,833 low, a deeper decline is expected towards support at 15,300/300 before the 200-day moving average (MA) of 14,900. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis The dour macro backdrop in the UK outlined above has weighed more heavily on the FTSE in recent weeks as it builds acceptance under the 200-day MA, currently at 7543. Presuming the FTSE remains below the 200-day MA and then breaks below uptrend support at 7400, a deeper decline is expected towards support at 7200, coming from year-to-date lows. Until then, however, further sideways-range trading within the triangle mapped below is possible. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of July 4th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Look Ahead 4/7/23: RBA; German trade balance; Sainsbury’s trading Australia’s central bank is likely to raise rates to 4.35%, but it may not be a done deal. German trade balance figures come as economists say Brexit has been an ‘economic disaster’ for trade ties between the UK and Germany. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 03 July 2023

Charting the Markets: 03 July FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin new quarter on positive footing. EUR/USD, GBP/USD slip while USD/JPY rises despite risk of BoJ intervention. Gold and oil under pressure, while sugar prices look to rebound. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 03 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Gold and oil under pressure, while sugar prices look to rebound Gold and oil have struggled to hold their initial gains this morning, while sugar prices are up after rebounding from a three-month low on Friday. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 03 July 2023 Gold gives up morning gains The price continues to fall, though it rebounded from a three-month low on Friday. An initial recovery targets trendline resistance around $1935, while a fresh decline back below $1900 would open the path to the 200-day SMA (currently $1861). The bearish case continues to hold sway while the price remains below $1930, while a recovery might result in an eventual test of the 50-day SMA. For now, the price is still in a longer-term uptrend from the lows of October last year, and it will need a move back below $1850 to really dent that view. Source: ProRealTime Brent struggles higher The price remains relatively unchanged this morning, after the rally last week that took the price back to the declining 50-day SMA. This has capped gains since mid-May, while on the downside losses have been halted around $71.60. This marks the continuation of a zone of support from mid-March. Since then the price has been stuck between these two areas, unable to move higher or lower over the medium term. A failure to break the 50-day SMA could see the price head lower once again. A break below $70 opens the way to $67.50, and then on to $64.75. Source: ProRealTime Sugar stabilises after steep falls The price came plummeting back to earth last week, after a huge rally in the first five months of the year. The substantial reversal took the price back to 2200, but it has rallied in early trading this morning. The potential for a higher low is now building, and a move above the 100-day SMA might help to reinforce a short-term bullish move. This might then target 2450 and then on to 2600. A fresh drop below 2200 brings the 200-day SMA into view. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin new quarter on positive footing Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as a new month and quarter begin. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 03 July 2023 FTSE 100 revisits 200-day simple moving average The FTSE 100 managed to finish last week and month on a positive note but still ended the quarter in negative territory as it continues to underperform its peers. Last Friday’s positive US PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, pushed global stock markets higher with the FTSE 100 reaching the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,564 on Monday morning’s overnight session. It will need to be overcome for further upside towards the April-to-July downtrend line at 7,635 to be in sight. Slips should find support around the 28 June high and Monday’s intraday low at 7,519 to 7,516, below which further support sits at the 29 June 7,459 low. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 continues to rise on positive sentiment The DAX 40 shot up strongly at the end of last week to finish the second quarter on a high but is expected to lose upside momentum at the beginning of this week as trading volumes may well thin out with US markets being shut for the 4th of July holiday on Tuesday. Nonetheless the May peak at 16,333 remains in view ahead of the June peak at 16,428. In case of a minor retracement lower taking shape, the late May and early June highs at 16,115 to 16,080 should offer at least initial support. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 trades in 15-month highs The S&P 500 continues to head higher as solid economic data and slowing inflationary pressures led to renewed risk-on sentiment last week. The April 2022 high at 4,513 represents a possible upside target while last Friday’s low at 4,398 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Immediate support comes in around the 4,447 June peak. Source: ProRealTime

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Early Morning Call: Equity markets start H2 in positive territory Apple closed Friday's session with a $3 trillion market capitalization for the first time. But can it remain at this level in today's session? Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 03 July 2023 09:31 Japan overview In Japan, business sentiment improved in the second quarter. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Tankan large manufacturers index rose 5 in June, bouncing back from the two-year low of 1 recorded three months ago. This latest data confirms economists' opinion that the world's third-largest economy is on track for a moderate recovery. China overview In China, factory activity in the private sector managed to keep its head above water in June. The Caixin Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.5 in June 2023 from 50.9 in the prior month but was above the market consensus of 50.2. Crucially, the index remains above 50. A print below 50, like the official NBS PMI last week, suggests the sector is in contraction territory. US markets Over in the US, the market awaits the institute for supply management (ISM) manufacturing's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for June. The index is forecast to be 47, up from 46.9 in May. This would be the eighth month of contraction for the manufacturing sector in the country. Tesla Tesla reported on Sunday a record number of vehicles delivered in the second quarter. Tesla delivered 466,140 vehicles in the April–June period, up 10% on the previous quarter and 83% higher than a year earlier. Since the start of 2023, Tesla has taken the risk of cutting its prices to make its cars more competitive, especially on the Chinese market, its second-largest market after North America. Apple Another stock to keep an eye on at 9 a.m. at the opening of the IG all-session market is Apple. The stock closed Friday's session with a $3 trillion market capitalization for the first time. But can it remain at this level in today's session? The Financial Times reports that Apple has been forced to make major cuts to production forecasts for its Vision Pro headset. According to the newspaper, the complexity of the design of the mixed-reality device makes its production more difficult than anticipated. US banks After the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) stress test results a few days ago, US banks have announced their dividend and share buyback plans. Goldman Sachs raises its quarterly dividend to $2.75 from $2.50. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo & Co and Morgan Stanley also raise their dividends; the latter also renews its $20 billion share buyback programme. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.