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Ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, signs of slowing growth and mounting risks of a double-dip recession take center stage. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Euro Recession Eurozone Inflation Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 25 July 2023 In last week's update, we asked whether the DAX and the FTSE could follow the lead of US equity markets and trade and retest year-to-date highs. While last week's lower-than-expected inflation print in the UK sparked a relief rally, the release of flash PMIs overnight pointed to further weakening of the growth momentum. In the UK, the composite flash PMI fell by 2.1pts to 50.7, below consensus expectations of 52.3. The decline in the Composite index was broad-based across sectors but skewed towards services which fell to 51.5 vs 53 expected. In Europe, the Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMIs for France, Germany, and the Euro Area all declined and came in below consensus expectations. Of particular concern, the German Manufacturing PMI fell to 38.8 from 40.6 previously, the lowest reading except for the Covid-19 and GFC periods, a sure sign of a deep manufacturing recession. While the market is looking for positive Euro Area growth in Q2 of 2023, ending the current technical recession (the Euro Zone entered a technical recession in Q1 of 2023), the risks of a double dip slowdown are increasing - A risk that even the most hawkish ECB members can hardly ignore ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. ECB interest rate meeting preview Date: Thursday, July 27 at 10.15 pm AEST At its meeting in June, the ECB raised the deposit rate facility by 25bps to 3.5%, as widely expected. The decision was accompanied by hawkish tones as the ECB's inflation projections for 2024 and 2025 were revised higher. ECB President Lagarde stated that a rate hike in July was very likely, and that the ECB was not considering a skip or a pause. "Staff have revised up their projections for inflation excluding energy and food, especially for this year and next year, owing to past upward surprises and the implications of the robust labour market for the speed of disinflation." Despite signs of a further slowdown, including the confirmation that the Euro Zone entered a technical recession in Q1 of 2023, a 25bp rate hike to 3.75% this week is assumed to be a done deal. The real interest will be on the communication for upcoming meetings and whether next week's hike will be the last or if more are to follow. If this week's hike is flagged as the last, it will trigger a dovish reaction, and the DAX may fly. However, it is equally possible that the ECB will leave the door open for another 25bp rate hike at the September meeting, which currently has about 14bp priced in. ECB deposit rate chart Source: TradingEconomics DAX technical analysis In last week's update, we noted that the decline in the DAX from the mid-June 16,572 high to the 15,559 low unfolded in three waves, indicative of the pullback being a correction rather than a reversal lower. From here, a sustained move above resistance at 16,350/375, ideally after Thursday's FED/ECB doubleheader, would confirm we are on the right track and open up a retest and break of the mid-June 16,572 high. Aware that if the DAX were to reject resistance at 16350/375, a retest of uptrend support at 15,750 is possible. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis In last week's update, we noted that the FTSE had reached our downside target at the recent 7229 low, and should the FTSE reclaim trend line support at 7450 and the 200-day moving average at 7560ish, we would move to a more positive bias looking for the rally to extend, initially towards 7800. The call above has worked out reasonably well. However, since the last update, the downtrend resistance from the 8047 February high has fallen from around 7800 to 7775. The FTSE needs a sustained break above 7775/7810 to indicate a stronger recovery towards year-to-date highs is underway. Otherwise, a return to 7200 is possible. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of July 25, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Charting the Markets: 25 July Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 aim for further gains. EUR/GBP and USD/CAD weaken, but AUD/USD makes headway. And gold prices under pressure, while WTI and wheat prices enjoy strong gains. Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 25 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 aim for further gains The Nasdaq 100 is edging higher ahead of tech earnings tonight, and the Nikkei is up on hopes of China stimulus. Meanwhile, the CAC40 breakout continues. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 25 July 2023 Nasdaq 100 sees buyers step in Shallow pullbacks continue to be the norm for this index, and already buyers are stepping in after the losses on Wednesday and Thursday last week. For now the 15,400 level has been firmly defended, and further gains will target last week’s highs around 15,930. Above this a fresh higher high for this relentless uptrend will have been created. Sellers will want a reversal back below 15,400 that can potentially open the way to the 50-day SMA and the 14,900 level that marked support earlier in July. Source: ProRealTiime Nikkei 225 recovery goes on The index continues to carve out a rounded bottom, with the latest reports of further support for the Chinese economy helping to lift spirits. Gains above 33,000 have proven impossible to sustain over the course of July, but buyers have repeatedly stepped in around 32,000, stalling any deeper pullback from the June highs. Above 33,000 a move back to the June highs seems to beckon. A daily close below 32,000 is needed to provide an indication that a deeper pullback is at hand, perhaps towards the 100-day SMA. Source: ProRealTiime CAC40 breakout continues The index continues to make headway above trendline resistance from the April highs. The breakout of the past week continues to reinforce the bullish view. The next target will be the May lower high at 7500, and then on to April’s peak at 7580. Above this the price will move to a new higher high and fresh record highs. A move back below 7300 would be needed to suggest that the sellers are back in control in the short-term, although the overall move higher remains in place. Source: ProRealTiime

Gold prices under pressure, while WTI and wheat prices enjoy strong gains While gold is still finding it hard to resume its move higher, WTI crude oil and wheat prices have both seen strong gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 25 July 2023 Gold struggles to move higher The price struggled for another day yesterday, slipping back below the 100-day SMA. It is attempting to recover this morning, and if it can hold above $1960 and push on back above the 100-day SMA again a more bullish view may prevail. This would target $1985 and then $2000. A drop back below $1950 would advance the bearish case, and potentially see the price head back to $1930 and then $1900. Source: ProRealTime WTI shoots through 200-day SMA Gains have continued for the commodity, and Monday’s session witnessed a surge above the 200-day SMA. This takes the price to its highest level since late April. Further gains will target $82, and then on to the peak at $82.94 from mid-April. This time, this level is firmly above the 200-day SMA. A drop back below the 200-day SMA might yet suggest that the sellers have regained control, with a move below $74 confirming this view. Source: ProRealTime Wheat price surges Wheat prices have seen further strength over the past week as the Russia-Ukraine grain deal has broken down. The price has surged from the lows of July, and in trading overnight reached its highest level since mid-February. So long as the price holds above 700 then a more bullish view will begin to emerge. Further gains target 790 and then 825, and a move back below 700 would be needed to reverse the growing bullish view. Source: ProRealTime

Hong Kong stocks rise after China support promise On Monday, China leaders pledged to step up policy support. On Tuesday, Chinese stocks are rising. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 25 July 2023 Chinese stocks On Monday, China leaders pledged to step up policy support. On Tuesday, Chinese stocks are rising. Beijing said it will step up economic policy support to focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence and preventing risks. Property policies are to be adjusted and optimised in a timely manner, in response to what the authorities call "significant changes" in the property market supply and demand. Adidas On Monday evening, Adidas gave us a taster of what Q2 earnings will look like. Adidas announced an operating profit for the second quarter of €176MIn, down from €392MIn a year earlier. Group revenue in the second quarter fell 5% to €5.3BIn, but gross margin rose 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%. The forecast could please investors. Adidas now expecting a full-year operating loss of €450MIn, down from a previously estimated €700MIn loss, thanks to unexpectedly strong sales of Yeezy shoes left over from abandoned collaboration with rapper Kanye West. Full second-quarter results are expected on August 3. Alphabet Two tech giants are due to report tonight after the closing bell. One of them is Alphabet. The Google parent company is forecast to post earnings of $1.34 per share, on revenue of $72.82BIn. Investors will be attentive to any Al-related announcements. They would like to know how the group can drive incremental monetisation through generative Al search. Ad revenue will be key. Google ad revenue is expected to reach $57.45BIn, while Youtube ad revenue is seen at $7.41BIn by analysts. Cloud growth is another point of interest. In the previous quarter, Google Cloud turned profitable for the first time. Revenue in this division is forecast at $7.83BIn. Microsoft The other tech giant due to report is Microsoft. Earnings are expected to rise by 14.3% YoY to $2.55 per share. Revenue should reach $55.44BIn, up 7% on the same quarter a year ago. If the launch of ChatGPT earlier in March gave a boost to the stock, it still followed a trend line that began earlier. Since the start of 2023, Microsoft shares have gained about 43%. For now, Microsoft's fate remains bound to its cloud service Azure. Visa Other earnings expected today include Visa. Earning per share (EPS) is seen at $2.11 on revenue of just over $8Bin. Visa has beaten estimate for the past 12 quarters. General Motors is forecast to post earnings of $1.84 per share on revenue of $41.92BIn. Earlier his month the automaker said that US deliveries rose 18.8% to just under 700,000 vehicles, its best performance since Q4 2020. Verizon's EPS is expected at $1.17, down 10.7% year-over-year (YoY), and are unlikely to give a boost to share price, down some 30% over the past 12 months. Oil outlook Investors are concerned that Verizon's generous dividend could shrink. Oil prices rise for a third straight day. Hopes for tighter supplies helped WTI and Brent to hit a new three-month high. The market is growing confident that global central bank tightening will soon come to an end, and therefore provide support for global growth. Oil analysts also hope China leaders' pledge to shore up the country's economy will give a boost to demand. The destruction by Russia of Ukrainian grain warehouses on the Danube River sent Wheat price in Chicago nearly 10% higher. Commodity traders now fear that Russian attacks will become a real threat to grain exports and shipping. Russia & Ukraine After refusing to renew Black Sea Grain deal last week, Russia has been targeting infrastructures in Odesa port. Since Russia's invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has expanded grain exports overland via the EU to about 1 million tons a month. Any interruption of these alternative routes could quickly hit international grain supplies. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Week ahead Bloomberg Indices Inflation European Central Bank Bank of Japan United States Central bank Vincent Boy | Analyste technique, Paris | Publication date: Monday 24 July 2023 A busy week could lead to a return of volatility on the markets, with the results season, monetary policy decisions and China in particular. Three central banks are expected this week, with the Fed on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and Japan's BoJ on Friday. While the first two are expected to raise their respective rates by 25 bps, the Bank of Japan is likely to try to gain time and maintain its ultra-accommodating policy, which it has held for years, while inflation is now over 3%. The Fed is expected to maintain its hawkish tone, although the markets expect Wednesday's hike to be the last in this cycle of monetary policy tightening. Falling inflation and slowing economic data could force Jerome Powell to leave monetary policy unchanged. The labour market is still very solid, but the next decision will not be taken until September, and employment could show some weakness between now and then, allowing the Fed to take a real break from the autumn. As for the ECB, although inflation remains high, economic data shows a risk of a more significant slowdown over the next few quarters and the markets are beginning to think that Christine Lagarde may be forced to stop tightening monetary policy quickly. Finally, the BoJ does not seem to be worried about inflation rising above its target and is likely to keep its rate at the floor, on the pretext that inflation should return to close to 2% soon. In other words, that the rise in inflation is only transitory, like the ECB and the Fed in 2021. The other major event of the week is results season. Investors are waiting to justify the incredible rebound seen on the financial markets with company results and outlooks. So far, the markets have risen against a backdrop of falling corporate earnings, thanks in particular to hopes linked to AI and the prospect of central bank rates falling in the near future. On the other hand, the results of the first technology companies to publish their results, with Netflix and Tesla last Wednesday, showed that the penalty could be brutal if the companies disappoint. On Monday, we will be keeping an eye on Domino's Pizza, Philips, Ryanair and a number of US regional banks. On Tuesday, Verizon, General Motor, 3M, General Electric, Spotify before the US markets opened, but especially Microsoft, and Alphabet, or Snap Inc and Visa, after the close. On Wednesday, AT&T, Boeing and Coca-Cola before the opening, then Meta, Chipotle and Ebay after the close. On Thursday, investors will be looking at McDonald's, Mastercard and Valero at the start of the day, before Ford, Intel and TMobile at the end. On Friday, ExxonMobil, Procter & Gamble and AstraZeneca will be closely watched. In terms of statistics, on Monday, the manufacturing and services PMIs will be analysed in Europe in the morning and in the United States in the afternoon, and they could confirm the continuing contraction in manufacturing activity and the slowdown in services activity worldwide. On Tuesday, we will find out about the IFO business climate indices in Germany, and US consumer confidence, which could rebound again after rising to its highest level since January 2022 in June. Wednesday will be quieter in terms of statistics, with only a few data on the US housing market, pending the Fed's decision at the end of the day. On Thursday, on the other hand, a number of statistics are expected, including industrial company profits in China and consumer confidence in Germany, but in the second half of the day investors will be focusing on durable goods orders, PCE prices, GDP and weekly jobless claims in the United States. Friday will also be a busy day, with inflation figures for the eurozone and some of its member countries, including Germany, ahead of PCE prices, as well as some data on consumer confidence in the United States. In addition to these major events, the markets will be paying close attention to the Politburo meeting in China, which is due to take place at the end of the week. Investors are awaiting measures from the party to support the economy, as the post-covid rebound has been undermined since the start of the year. Measures were announced on Monday, but given investors' high expectations, they could be disappointed.

Charting the Markets: 24 July FTSE 100 & Dow hold up well after gains, while Dax remains in consolidation mode. Risk appetite weakens ahead of busy period for markets, weakening EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while stalling the USD/JPY rebound. Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 July 2023 And gold and silver prices edge lower, but Brent crude oil price heads higher This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

FTSE 100 & Dow hold up well after gains, while Dax remains in consolidation mode The FTSE 100 and Dow have started the week well after their recent surges, while the Dax is still moving sideways. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 July 2023 FTSE 100 steady after recent rebound The surge of the past two weeks has carried the index to its highest level since late May. The price rallied above the 100-day SMA on Friday, and after gaining around 400 points it is perhaps not surprising to see some weakness enter the picture. Nonetheless, this looks more like consolidation at present. The key battleground will be the 7700 area. This was support in early May and resistance in June, so a close above 7700 would mark a fresh bullish development. From here the index might then move on to 7800 and then on towards the April highs around 7900. A move back below 7550 and the 50-day SMA would be needed to dent the bullish view, and a close back below downtrend resistance from the April highs would put the sellers back in charge. Source: ProRealTime DAX aiming for another attempt to break 16,200 Consolidation continue to be the theme here, after the recovery from the early July lows. Upside progress has stalled around 16,200, though the index remains close to its record highs near 16,400. This is the first destination in any move higher, with further gains then taking the index into fresh uncharted territory. A close back below 16,000 might suggest another drop back towards the all-important 15,700 support level. Source: ProRealTime Dow holding firm around 2023 highs Over the past two weeks the index has finally found the strength to move to the upside, rallying to its highest level since April 2022. The next two weeks are packed with earnings updates, economic data and central bank decisions. This may militate against any further upside in the short-term, but further gains might target the February 2022 high at 35,860, and then on towards 36,465, the November 2021 peak. Consolidation may develop from here as the market digests all the news expected over the coming two weeks. Some support might be expected around 34,500, which was previously resistance in February and June. Source: ProRealTime

Gold and silver prices edge lower, but Brent crude oil price heads higher Oil prices have seen renewed strength, but precious metals are struggling this morning. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 July 2023 Gold edges lower Gold prices have rallied from the beginning of July, but have fallen back over the past three sessions. The break back above the 50- and 100-day SMAs helps to solidify a new bullish view, after the pullback over the past two months. If the price can hold above $1960 then the bullish view remains intact and the price may then target $1980 and higher. Alternately, a reversal below the 50-day SMA would see the $1930 level come in as potential support once more. Source: ProRealTime Brent heading higher again Oil prices have shown further strength over the last week, adding to the view that a more sustained period of upside is in the offing. The rebound off the 100-day SMA now puts the price on course to target the 200-day SMA, which the price has not touched since August last year, Above this the longer-term view targets $85. A reversal back below the 100-day SMA might indicate that the sellers have regained control. Source: ProRealTime Silver retreats for a third day The price has fallen back over the past two sessions, with further losses this morning. A close back below the $24.55 level would potentially indicate some more short-term weakness, though after the sharp gains since the June low some losses were to be expected. Buyers will want to see a close back above $25 to revive the bullish view and open the way to the highs around $26, while additional losses target the 100-day SMA. Source: ProRealTime

The JPY is under pressure as the market awaits three central bank decisions Economists believe that the BoJ rate decision will be as it's been since it first adopted negative rates in 2016, with a short-term interest rate target of -0.1%. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 July 2023 Fed rate decision A big week for central banks is starting, and it may be a week where there is little coordinated action. On Wednesday, there's the Federal Reserve rate decision (Fed) at 7 p.m. UK time. While the target rate is expected to rise by 25 basis points, the most interesting thing about this release is the press conference to see what's behind the decision and to what degree there will be dissent. There's building evidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may already have done enough, and this expected rate rise may be indicated as the last, at least for the time being. European Central Bank Then on Thursday. 1:15pm UK time, there's the European Central Bank decision. While the outcome that's expected is forecast to be the same as for the US, with the refinancing rate rising by 25 basis points to 4.25%, there's a fair bet that the European Central Bank (ECB) will indicate that their job is far from over. Bank of Japan Finally, on Friday, it's the Bank of Japan's turn. Economists believe that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision will be as it's been since it first adopted negative rates in 2016, with a short-term interest rate target of -0.1%. Ryanair Ryanair posted a €663 million after-tax profit for the three months ending in June. It also lowered its passenger growth forecast for 2023 because of Boeing delivery delays. It now expects traffic in the year to March 2024 to grow by 9% to around 183.5 million, compared to the 185 million originally expected. Philips Phillips operating income rose to €221Mln in the second quarter, up from €11Mln a year ago, and beating estimates of €149Mln. Revenue also beat estimates, at €4.5Bln. Philips also said that it has produced approximately 99% of the new replacement respiratory devices it needed to provide. In June 2021, the group was forced to recall of millions of respirators used to treat sleep apnoea. US earnings report Files group was to recall millions of respirators used to treat sleep apnea. This week is arguably the busiest week of the quarter in terms of US earnings reports. On Tuesday, the market awaits quarterly earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa, GM, Verizon, and Snap. On Wednesday, Boeing,Coca-Cola , and AT&T were followed on Thursday by Intel, Ford Motor, Comcast, and McDonald's, and on Friday by Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Procter & Gamble. Chevron US oil giant Chevron said last Friday that its second-quarter earnings topped Wall Street estimates Chief Executive Michael Wirth also signaled the business remains open to more acquisitions and to increasing shareholder distributions this year. Reuters says, in a rare preview of its results that coincided with the announced retirement of its finance chief, Chevron disclosed a $5.8 billion net profit in the quarter ended June 30. Full results will be disclosed on Friday, July 28. The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by six this week, according to Baker Hughes, taking the total rig count down to 669. Baker Hughes This means that so far this year, Baker Hughes estimates a loss of more than 100 active drilling rigs. This week's count is also 406 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic. In terms of detail, oil rigs fell by 7 to 530, down by 91 so far in 2023. Gas rigs dropped by 2, to 131, a loss of 25 active gas rigs from the start of the year. That gives a total of 9 down but included in this calculation are miscellaneous rigs that gained 3 rigs, which gives that total drop from last week. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

An in-depth analysis of the Reserve Bank of Australia's July Board meeting minutes, highlighting the impact of unemployment rates, Q2 CPI reports, and retail sales on the likelihood of an August rate rise. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Australian dollar Consumer price index Reserve Bank of Australia Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 24 July 2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently published the meeting minutes for their July Board meeting, a key event that has put the spotlight on the incoming data ahead of the RBA's August Board meeting. The financial market was put on notice last Thursday following a firm labour force report. Despite a record 400bp of RBA rate hikes, the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5%, a record low. This prompted the interest rate market to increase the probability of an RBA rate hike in August from 20% to 50%. A hotter-than-expected Q2 CPI report and robust retail sales this week could likely see the probability of an RBA rate rise in August rise to nearly 80%. Inflation expectations for the Q2 CPI report The market expectations are for headline inflation to fall to 6.2% YoY from 7%, with a fall in fuel prices being the key driver. The range of expectations varies from 5.8% to 6.7%. The RBA's preferred measure of core inflation, the Trimmed Mean, is expected to fall to 6% YoY from 6.6% previously. The range of expectations varies from 5.8% to 6.3%. If core inflation is equal to or higher than 6.1%, i.e., above the RBA's forecast of 6%, it would likely be enough to see the RBA raise rates in August by 25bp to 4.35%. AU trimmed mean inflation chart Source: RBA RBA forecasts Source: RBA AUD/USD technical analysis Last week, the AUD/USD ended lower at .6729 (-1.58%) as the US dollar rallied on Friday due to short covering ahead of this week's data-rich calendar and reports suggesting the BoJ will maintain its YCC unchanged at the Friday meeting. In our previous AUD/USD update, we noted a double top at .6900c and suggested: "Until the AUD/USD mounts a successful attack on .6900c, allow for a retracement back towards the 200-day moving average at .6700c." The subsequent pullback reached the 200-day moving average, now at .6718c. While the high level of event risk this week leaves us neutral on the AUD/USD's direction, we see support at .6720/00 as the bull/bear pivot. If the AUD/USD remains above this support, a rebound back towards .6800c is plausible. However, a sustained breach below .6720/00 may trigger a deeper decline towards .6600c. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of July 20, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 24 July Chris Beauchamp's insight This week is again dominated by earnings season in the US, which continues with technology companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel. Rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank’s (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the latter part of the week will also be closely monitored. Flash purchasing managers index (PMI), consumer sentiment, US and French preliminary second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) as well as German consumer price index (CPI) and US personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) price inflation data will likely add some volatility to the mix. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 1.30am – Japan PMI (July, flash): manufacturing to rise to 50 and services to drop to 53.4. Markets to watch: JPY crosses 8.30am – Germany PMI (July, flash): manufacturing to fall to 40 and services to weaken to 52.9. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9am – eurozone PMI (July, flash): manufacturing to fall to 42.8 and services to fall to 51.5. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK PMI (July, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 46 and services to fall to 53. Markets to watch: 1.45 – US Chicago Fed index (June): index to rise to 0.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2.45pm – US PMI (July, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 46 and services to weaken to 54. Markets to watch: Tuesday 9am – German IFO index (July): index to fall to 86.6 from 88.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 3pm – US consumer confidence (July): index to rise to 113 from 109.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday 2.30am – Australia inflation (Q2): prices to rise 6.3% YoY from 7% and 1.1% from 1.4% QoQ. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 3pm – US new home sales (June): sales to fall 4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 21 July): stockpiles fell by 70.1 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 7pm – FOMC rate decision: US interest rates expected to rise to 5.5% from 5.25%. Press conference at 7.30pm. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Thursday 7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): index to rise to -24. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates to rise to 4.25%. Press conference at 1.45pm, which may provide further detail on the outlook. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, advance), durable goods orders (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 22 July): GDP to rise 1.9% QoQ, from 2% in Q1. Durable goods orders to rise 1% and fall 0.1% excluding transportation. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US pending home sales (June): sales to rise 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 4am – Bank of Japan rate decision: rates to be held at 0.1%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses 1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): prices to rise 6.1% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 6.4% and 0.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US PCE price index (June): core PCE price index to rise 0.2%, from 0.3% in May. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Company announcements Monday 24 July Tuesday 25 July Wednesday 26 July Thursday 27 July Friday 28 July Full-year earnings Half/ Quarterly earnings Moneysupermarket.com, Philips, Ryanair Unilever, Deutsche Boerse, Alstom, Spotify, Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa, General Motors, Verizon, Snap British American Tobacco, Rio Tinto, Lloyds, GSK, Just Eat Takeaway, Stellantis, Carrefour, Deutsche Bank, Airbus, Boeing, Coca-Cola, AT&T BT, Shell, Barclays, TotalEnergies, Volkswagen, Nestle, Intel, Ford, McDonalds AstraZeneca, Standard Chartered, NatWest, IAG, Air France-KLM, Sanofi, Chevron, Procter & Gamble Trading update* Vodafone Dividends FTSE 100: SSE FTSE 250: Qinetiq, NB Private Equity, Monks Inv Trust, Bankers Inv Trust, City of London Inv Trust Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 17 July Tuesday 18 July Wednesday 19 July Thursday 20 July Friday 21 July Monday 24 July FTSE 100 Australia 200 0.4 Wall Street 8.6 6.2 US 500 0.08 0.44 0.08 0.08 Nasdaq 0.01 Netherlands 25 EU Stocks 50 2.4 China H-Shares 1.3 Singapore Blue Chip Hong Kong HS50 2.4 South Africa 40 Italy 40 110.0 Japan 225 * Please note these can change without notice * Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day

Markets are contemplating an action-packed week of data, earnings and central bank decisions. Overnight in Asia the Nikkei was the standout performer, rising over 1% versus losses for Australia, Shanghai and the Hang Seng. US stocks finished the week in mixed form, with gains concentrated in defensive sectors versus losses for big tech stocks. Flash PMI readings dominate the day, giving investors an insight into the global economy, with mixed readings so far from Japan and Australia. Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan rate decisions are the key events to watch this week on the economic front, along with US GDP data for Q2, while earnings come through thick and fast, most notably from the big tech names such as Alphabet and Microsoft.

Thanks for update @phillo

Charting the Markets: 21 July Stock indices, except the FTSE 100, consolidate ahead of weekend. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD slip on stronger dollar and UK retail sales. And WTI rises on China stimulus package, but gold and silver retrace lower. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Stock indices, except the FTSE 100, consolidate ahead of weekend Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid mixed U.S. earnings and strong UK retail sales. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023 FTSE 100 approaches key resistance The FTSE 100’s rally, triggered by weaker-than-expected UK inflation, is being boosted by June retail sales which came in at 0.7% versus an expected 0.2% and a downwardly revised 0.1% in May. The UK blue-chip index, which has so far risen by over 5% from its July low, is fast approaching its 7,679 to 7,688 resistance zone. It consists of the mid-May low and the mid-June high and as such may short-term cap. If not, the way would be open for the 7,806 mid-May high to be reached next. Support is seen along the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) at 7,599 and 7,573 as well as along the breached April-to-July downtrend line at 7,552. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 stays below key resistance area The DAX 40 this week has only briefly managed to rise above its 16,187 to 16,221 previous July highs, to 16,240, before continuing to sideways trade amid mixed earnings. If this week’s high at 16,240 were to be bettered, however, the May peak at 16,333 would be next in line. Immediate support can be spotted at Thursday’s 16,047 low and also between the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Monday’s low at 15,994. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 comes off its 16-month highs Mixed corporate earnings provoked some profit-taking on the S&P 500 and have taken the index away from its 16-month high. Were this week’s high at 4,578 to be exceeded, however, the late January 2022 high at 4,595 and the March 2022 peak at 4,637 may be reached as well. Minor support below Thursday’s low at 4,528 can be seen around Monday’s low at 4,498. Source: ProRealTime

WTI rises on China stimulus package but gold and silver retrace lower Outlook on WTI, gold and silver amid appreciating U.S. dollar. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023 WTI rises on China stimulus package WTI is heading back up towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76.68 following an announcement by Beijing that it will introduce measures to help boost sales of automobiles and electronics with the aim of shoring up its sluggish economy. Above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76.68 sits last week’s high at $77.17 which is back in focus. These levels are expected to be reached provided that this week’s low at $73.78 holds. It was made close to the mid-May and early June highs at $73.89 to $73.82. Above $73.78 lie the June-to-July support line at $75.02 and Thursday’s low at $74.51. Should $73.78 be fallen through, however, minor support around the $72.70 late June high may be reached instead.  Source: ProRealTime Gold comes off its two-month high as the U.S. dollar regains lost ground Several times this week the gold price tried to overcome the $1,983 per troy ounce June peak but so far to no avail. The recovering U.S. dollar has led to the precious metal short-term topping out at $1,987 on Thursday with it sliding back towards the July support line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,958 to $1,957. Further down lies Monday’s low at $1,946 which may also be reached, provided that $1,987 caps. While the $1,946 Monday low underpins, however, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Source: ProRealTime Silver consolidates below its two-month high Silver’s swift advance to its $25.26 per troy ounce two-month high has lost upside momentum as the greenback is regaining recently lost ground. A slip back to Monday’s $24.61 low may thus be on the cards, a drop through which would engage the late April low and June high at $24.52 to $24.50 which are likely to hold. If not, a more pronounced decline may take the precious metal to the mid-June high at $24.21. Above Thursday’s high at $25.26 lie the 20 April high at $25.49, followed by the April and May peaks at $26.09 to $26.13. Source: ProRealTime

Apple’s share price: what to expect from its Q3 results Source: Bloomberg Shares Apple Inc. iPhone Market trend Price Share repurchase Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023 When does Apple Inc report earnings? Apple Inc is set to release its quarter three (Q3) financial results on 3 August 2023, after market closes. Apple’s earnings – what to expect Current market expectations are for Apple’s Q3 revenue to decline 1.7% from a year ago, turning in its third straight quarter of contraction but coming off a smaller decline from the -2.5% in Q2. Likewise, earnings per share (EPS) are expected to decline 0.7% year-on-year, a softer read than the flat growth in Q2. However, its EBITDA margin is expected to remain resilient at 31.8%, just a slight downtick from the 32.9% in the previous quarter. Being a heavyweight in the Nasdaq, its year-to-date gain of 54.5% has contributed significantly to the index’s outperformance. Undoubtedly, all eyes will be on its upcoming earnings release to determine whether the Nasdaq’s rally has further room to run in the near term. Subdued Greater China’s recovery could remain a drag, Apple services to stay resilient The Greater China market accounts for one-fifth of Apple’s revenue and thus far, recovery on that front has not been as promising as what many initially expected. A look at the China’s economic surprise index has revealed its lowest level since May 2020, which points to the challenging economic conditions for one of Apple’s iPhone key markets. Amid this backdrop, iPhone sales for Q3 2023 are expected to contract 1.5% from a year ago, before a stronger recovery can be seen through the rest of the year. Other product demand are also expected to stay weak, with iPad and Mac sales expected to decline by 11.6% and 14.1% year-on-year respectively. The more consistent showing will be its services segment, which is expected to grow 5.8% in Q3 2023, up slightly from the 5.5% in the previous quarter. The segment has delivered an all-time record with $20.9 billion in revenue in the previous quarter measured and the momentum seems primed to continue, given the stickiness of the ecosystem. That may aid to cushion the prevailing weaknesses in hardware sales in the meantime, until conditions improve on those fronts. Source: Refinitiv Market pricing for a subsequent recovery and future growth potential Nevertheless, with Apple’s share price pushing to a new all-time high, much may be priced for future recovery, with Q3 2023 expected to validate views of a potential bottom in both its top and bottom-line growth. In the previous quarter’s earnings call, the management’s guidance has carried some reservations around the macroeconomic environment, and eyes will be on whether a more optimistic tone could be struck this time round with the mounting views of a ‘soft landing’. With a forward price-to-sales valuation of 7.5, a premium also seems to be priced for future growth potential. This valuation is more lofty than that of Meta Platforms (5.9) and Alphabet (4.9), but on par with Tesla (8.0). Several growth catalysts remain on watch to potentially diversify the company’s revenue stream away from iPhone sales (54% of total revenue) over the longer term. While monetisation efforts will not be reflected in the upcoming results, clues will be sought on the respective launch plans and initial progress to support Apple’s growth momentum into next year. This includes the New Vision Pro headset announced last month, which is expected to launch early next year. Apple is also tapping on its huge user base to include financial services as part of its ecosystem, such as offering a high-yield saving account program for Apple Card holders and “buy now, pay later” offerings (Apple Pay Later). Not to mention its recent venture to join the Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbot race with its Apple GPT tool. Apple also typically releases new iPhones in September and is expected to take the wraps off the new iPhone 15 range this year. While an announcement may be made closer to late-August, this will be something to put on the radar, especially with recent chatters of display manufacturing issues potentially causing some delays. More clarity will be sought on that front from the upcoming earnings call. Share buyback and dividends? Apple generally raised its dividend in the January-March reporting season, which it has done so with a 4% increase to $0.24 per share this year. It also guided for a US$90 billion stock buyback then, which provides a vote of confidence for its cashflow over coming quarters. For the coming quarter, its free cashflow is expected to rise 5.9% from a year ago. Strong record of earnings outperformance, but forward guidance will be key Apple generally has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates. Since FY2018, it has only missed earnings estimate once out of the past 22 quarters. On a revenue basis, it has also outperformed on 20 out of the past 22 quarters since FY2018. Therefore, the odds seem to be heavily leaning towards another positive surprise at the upcoming results. That said, recent results from Netflix and Tesla will serve as a warning to market participants that forward guidance will be key as well, to validate broad expectations for a recovery in corporate earnings through the rest of the year. Source: Refinitiv Technical analysis – Upward trend intact but near-term bearish RSI divergence on watch Apple’s share price has been on a tear, gaining as much as 60% year-to-date. While the series of higher highs and higher lows provide conviction of a clear upward trend in place, the recent tops are marked with a bearish divergence on its Relative Strength Index (RSI), which points towards some exhaustion in upward momentum. The recent formation of bearish shooting star candles on the daily chart also raises the odds of a near-term retracement. Nevertheless, any retracement could still leave a series of support lines on watch to resume its upward trend. This includes a key upward trendline, alongside its 20-day moving average (MA) in the near term. Perhaps a major level of support will be at the US$180.00 level, where the upper edge of its Ichimoku cloud zone coincides with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement on its year-to-date rally. Source: IG charts

Wall Street ended mixed overall, with further catch-up gains in value sectors as the DJIA delivered its ninth day winning streak. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Bank of Japan AUD/JPY Relative strength index Inflation Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023 Market Recap Earnings from Netflix and Tesla have triggered some profit-taking in big tech companies overnight, as pockets of weaknesses in their results seem to give rise to concerns for other upcoming big tech results as well. Given the stellar tech rally since the start of the year, market participants may be pricing for not just an earnings beat, but a strong guidance in corporate earnings over the coming quarters with current ‘soft landing’ hopes. Any signs to challenge that narrative may call for some re-rating in their present lofty valuation. Wall Street ended mixed overall (DJIA +0.47%; S&P 500-0.68%; Nasdaq -2.05%), with further catch-up gains in value sectors as the DJIA delivered its ninth day winning streak. Weaker-than-expected read in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (-13.5 versus -10 forecast) and a deeper contraction in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index have been largely shrugged off, with the earnings season taking centre stage and expectations well-positioned for the last rate hike from the Fed next week. Treasury yields largely headed higher, with the 10-year yields jumping 10 basis-point (bp) overnight. One to watch may be the US dollar, which is back to retest its previous support-turned-resistance level at the 100.50 level. For now, the broader trend of lower highs and lower lows could still suggest sellers largely in control, while there are the odds that the recent upmove is a near-term moderation from oversold technical conditions following a hefty 4% sell-off over the past two week. Failure to reclaim the 100.50 level over the coming days could leave its July 2023 low on watch at the 99.00 level for a retest. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a negative open, with Japan 225 -0.69%, ASX-0.22% and KOSPI -0.75% at the time of writing. The economic calendar is relatively quiet to end the week, with focus this morning revolving around the Japan’s inflation data for June. The headline print was lower than expected (3.3% versus 3.5% year-on-year), but the core aspect continue to show some persistence with a match of consensus at 4.2%. That may still keep speculations of a policy adjustment from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in place, with the Japanese 10-year bond yields hovering near its two-month high into the BoJ meeting next week. While there has been some pushback from authorities lately for a July move, the consensus remains that a policy shift will be a matter of when and could eventually take place by the end of this year. Any hawkish shift in policy settings may be negative for the Nikkei 225 index, as seen from the 2% sell-off back in December 2022 on the BoJ’s surprise yield curve control (YCC) tweak. But while that is still perceived to be a few meetings away, the index is currently attempting to defend a key double-top neckline at the 32,400 level. The recent lower highs on its Relative Strength Index (RSI) point to some exhaustion in upward momentum for now, while the index attempts to stay above its 100-day moving average (MA) for now. Failure to defend the 32,400 level may potentially pave the way towards the next line of support at the 31,400 level. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: AUD/JPY back to retest key resistance once more A hotter-than-expected jobs data out of Australia yesterday has prompted a hawkish recalibration in rate expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as market participants price for a higher odds of a 25 bp move from the central bank next month. That triggered an initial jump in the AUD/JPY before the more subdued risk environment dampened some optimism around the risk-sensitive AUD. With that, the AUD/JPY is once again back to retest its key resistance at the 95.34 level, with a near-term ascending triangle pattern in place on the four-hour chart. Buyers may have to overcome the 95.34 level to provide greater conviction for a move to retest its June 2023 high, but for now, the risks of a lower high is still present, with any downside potentially leaving the 93.20 level on watch as immediate support. Source: IG charts Thursday: DJIA +0.47%; S&P 500 -0.68%; Nasdaq -2.05%, DAX +0.59%, FTSE +0.76%

Risk event for the week starting 24 July: Fed & ECB rate decisions With two of the big central bank decisions next week, Warren Venketas, foreign exchange analyst at DailyFX, joins us to look at a short EUR/USD trade. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023

British consumer confidence drops. "Reality has started to bite." - GFK In a context of high inflation and rising interest rates, British consumers turned more pessimistic last month, according to market research firm GfK. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 July 2023 GFK In a context of high inflation and rising interest rates, British consumers turned more pessimistic last month, according to market research firm GfK. Consumer confidence fell to -30 this month from -24 in June, the first decline since January and below economists' estimates of -26. This was the biggest month-on-month fall since April last year. In the Gfk Statement, its client strategy director, Joe Staton, said that "Reality has started to bite and, as people continue to struggle to make ends meet, consumers will pull back from spending." Gf's monthly survey showed a decline in all measures of consumer sentiment compared to the previous month. One of them, how consumers view the economy in the coming 12 months, fell sharply to -33 from -25. Inflation may have eased more than expected in June, falling to 7.9%, but it nonetheless remains the fastest pace of price growth among the world's richest economies. UK retail sales UK retail sales for June have come in better than expected, up by 0.7% month-over-month (MoM), when the market expected a 0.2% rise. There were increases across all the main sectors (food, non-food, and non-store retailing) except automotive fuel, which was slightly lower. Food store sales volumes bounced back with 0.7% growth in June 2023, following a fall of 0.4% in May 2023. Japanese Inflation In Japan, inflation remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for the 15th straight month in June. Headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3% in June year-over-year (YoY), after rising 3.5% the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food costs, rose 3.3% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.2% gain in May. Excluding both fresh food and fuel costs, the index rose 4.2% in June from a year earlier, slower than a 4.3% gain in May. This version of the index, favoured by the BOJ, slowed for the first time since January 2022. American Express American Express all sessions on the IG platform, is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings before market open. The street expects earnings of $2.81 per share on revenue of $15.41 billion. Schlumberger is also set to report at lunchtime. Oil services group The oil services group is set to post earnings of 71 cents per share on revenue of $8.2 billion. Over the past 12 months, the stock has risen by a staggering 77%, way more than its rivals: Halliburton rose 32% over the period, and Baker Hughes rose 29%. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Despite Chinese authorities announcing measures intended to help boost sales of automobiles and electronics with the aim of shoring up its sluggish economy and moderating growth in Japanese core inflation Asian equities were mixed today. The effect of disappointing earnings by the likes of Netflix and Tesla on Thursday still seem to linger on with investors now looking ahead to Q2 earnings by American Express and Schlumberger. Much stronger-than-expected UK June retail sales should help the FTSE 100 remain bid at Friday's open, though

What to expect and how to trade UK banks’ upcoming results. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares HSBC Lloyds Banking Group NatWest Barclays Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 July 2023 UK bank earnings loom Lloyds, Barclays, NatWest Group, Standard Chartered, and HSBC are all set to release their second-quarter figures in the coming days. Lloyds and HSBC may see upgrades to net interest income and return on tangible equity due to their low existing guidance. NatWest’ s current income guidance is above the City consensus, and there is a potential for a miss on costs after higher levels were forecasted in the first half. Declining balance sheets a risk The major focus of this reporting season will be declining balance sheets. Deposits in the UK are falling faster than loans, which puts pressure on banks to adjust their balance sheets to maintain liquidity levels. The spreads on deposits are also higher than on loans, meaning that larger declines in deposits are leading to larger movements in net interest income. On the positive side, lower balance sheet growth requires less capital, which should benefit capital distributions to shareholders. Currently, UK banks are yielding 15%, including dividends and share buybacks. Although Lloyds is likely to increase its net interest margin guidance, 150 basis points (bp) of interest rate hikes since the first quarter are unlikely to provide any further benefit. Mixed year-to-date performance for UK banks HSBC has outperformed the market this year with a 20% rise. Despite this, it still trades at a significant discount to its own historical valuations. Barclays is the only other bank to have outperformed the FTSE 100, with NatWest the weakest performer for the year so far. Source: Google Finance Except for HSBC, most UK banks have had a bad year-to-date and are even underperforming this year’s global worst performing major stock index, the FTSE 100 (of which they are all constituents) which is only just creeping back into positive territory. When are Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest’s results expected and what are the expectations? Second quarter (Q2) 2023 results are on: 26 July: Lloyds Revenue of £4.583 billion : +5.6% year on year (YoY) and Earnings per share (EPS): 1.85p (-18.1% YoY) 27 July: Barclays Revenue of £6.572 billion : -2.0% year on year (YoY) and Earnings per share (EPS): 8.34p (+1.1% YoY) 28 July: NatWest Revenue of £3.670 billion : +14.3% year on year (YoY) and Earnings per share (EPS): 11.04p (-15.4% YoY) 1 August: HSBC Revenue of £16.035 billion : +22.0% year on year (YoY) and Earnings per share (EPS): 31p (+63.2% YoY) Analyst ratings, P/Es and dividend yields for Barclays, Lloyds, HSBC and NatWest shares: Only the Barclays share price is mirroring the blue-chip index with the Lloyds and NatWest share prices so far remaining in negative territory but the HSBC share price greatly outperforming. This may soon be about to change, though, as both analyst recommendations and the technical picture are improving for its competitors as well. Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Barclays (3 strong buy, 10 buy, 5 hold but also 2 sell) with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 235.00 pence, roughly 42% above current levels (as of 20/07/2023). Looking closer at the numbers, according to Refinitiv Eikon Barclays currently has a P/E ratio of 5.52 and dividend yield of 4.41% which compares to HSBC’s P/E of 10.97 and 4.84%, Lloyds’ 6.48 and 5.14% and NatWest’s 7.18 and 5.29%. Lloyds is also rated as a ‘buy’ by analysts (4 strong buy, 8 buy, 6 hold but also 3 sell) with a median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 61.00 pence, approximately 32% above current levels. So is NatWest with 4 strong buy, 11 buy, 4 hold but 2 sell with a median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 360.00 pence, roughly 39% above current levels, and HSBC with 4 strong buy, 9 buy and 7 hold and a median long-term price target of 765.00 pence, about 20% above current levels. Technical outlook on Barclays, Lloyds, HSBC and NatWest shares Barclays share price daily candlestick chart Source: Tradingview The rise and daily chart close above the April and May highs at 162.88p to 163.76p this week has confirmed a bullish reversal pattern with the February price gap at 176.98p to 186.00p being eyed, as well as the February peak at 193.18p. The next higher psychological 200p region also remains in sight. The bullish reversal pattern in the Barclays share price will remain valid as long as it stays above its 141.26 June low. Lloyds share price daily candlestick chart Source: Tradingview The Lloyds share price is currently grappling with its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 46.69p which needs to be overcome, together with the late-May high at 47.59p on a daily chart closing basis, for a medium-term bullish reversal to gain traction. If indeed a bullish turn-around is taking place, the April peak at 50.30p would represent the next upside target, followed by the February high at 54.33p. Since the February-to-July downtrend line has been broken through, we believe that a medium-term bottom has been formed since the 41.24p June low. While it doesn’t give way, a recovery scenario in the Lloyds share price looks probable. HSBC share price daily candlestick chart Source: Tradingview The HSBC share price continues its steady advance from its March 512.3p low towards its February peak at 653.8p. A rise above this level would push the psychological 700p mark to the fore. Given that the HSBC share price has risen for the past seven consecutive days and has left its May-to-July sideways trading range, the February peak is expected to be reached within days. Overall upside momentum should prevail while the June trough at 587.4p underpins. NatWest share price daily candlestick chart Source: Tradingview The fact that the NatWest share price has managed to break and close above its 2023 downtrend line at 255p is encouraging for the bulls. A rise and daily chart close above the 200-day (SMA) and the mid-June high at 263.8p to 266.8p is needed to confirm a medium-term trend reversal. Once this has happened, the February low, April and May highs at 275.6p to 277.4p will back in focus. Once bettered, the February peak at 313.1p would also be back in play. This technical bullish view will remain valid as long as no potential decline takes the NatWest share price to below its June low at 225.7p

Look Ahead to 21/7/23: UK consumer confidence and retail sales; American Express; Schlumberger Disappointing UK retail sales could lead to more volatility for cable. Japan releases inflation figures. Plus, American Express and Schlumberger hand in their Q2 earnings report cards. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 July 2023

Charting the Markets: 20 July Dow makes progress and Nasdaq 100 edges lower, but Nikkei 225 comes under pressure .EUR/USD consolidates as EUR/GBP and AUD/USD rally. And Brent crude oil consolidates while Chicago wheat and orange juice rally. Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 20 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.