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Brent crude oil remains bid while wheat and orange juice prices struggle Outlook on Brent crude oil, Chicago wheat and orange juice as U.S. dollar falls out of bed. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 Brent crude oil prices trade in near three-month highs Brent crude oil’s advance on the back of total OPEC+ output cuts of nearly 5.2 million barrels per day until the end of August has taken it to levels last traded in early May with the late April high at $80.49 being within reach. Further up beckons the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.41. Minor support may come in around Tuesday’s $79.36 high and at Wednesday’s $79.06 low. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices remain under pressure Chicago Wheat’s swift decline from its four-month June high at $7.70 as the weather in the U.S. has improved has taken it so far to the current July low at $6.27, to below its early July trough at $6.42. The early June low at $6.20 may soon also be reached ahead of the psychological $6.00 region. Resistance above $6.42 is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $6.49. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice struggles at resistance Front month orange juice futures have been unsuccessfully trying to break trough a resistance zone over the past four consecutive days despite a rapidly falling dollar and other commodities surging higher due to this. Orange juice futures so far reached $2.7152, a daily chart close above which is needed for the early June high at $2.7546 to be reached next. While the price of orange juice remains capped, a slip back towards Wednesday’s low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.6398 to $2.6233 remains at hand. Source: ProRealTime

The second quarter earnings season for US stocks will officially kick off from July 14th. It is forecasted that the upcoming Q2 earnings reports will mark the third consecutive quarter of declining revenues and earnings growth. Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities United States Interest Interest rates Price Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 The second quarter earnings season for US stocks will officially kick off from July 14th, 2023. It is forecasted that the upcoming Q2 earnings reports will mark the third consecutive quarter of declining revenues and earnings growth. According to Factset, the S&P 500 is projected to demonstrate a yearly earnings decline of -7.2% for the Q2, 2023 and an approximately 2% decline in EPS. However, at the same time, the performance of the US stock market this year has surprised many investors. Despite the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes and the multiple headwinds faced by US corporations, the S&P 500 has already experienced a remarkable surge of 15% since the start of the year, reaching a yearly high in June. So, will the upcoming earnings season continue to propel the US stock market upwards or will it become a turning point? Here are the key highlights to watch in weeks ahead: US Q2 Earnings Week 1 (July 14-16) As usual, the second quarter earnings season will raise the curtain by major banks. The key highlights of this week will include the earnings reports from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. In the previous quarter, major bank stocks delivered eye-widening strong performances. Despite a regional banking crisis shock in March, the large US banks showcased impressive results. JPMorgan Chase, in particular, experienced a surge of over 7% in its stock price following the release of its Q1 earnings report, marking one of the company's best earnings days. Generally, bank stocks are heavily influenced by interest rate cycles. On one hand, rising interest rates benefit banks by increasing deposit volumes and net interest margins (NIM). On the other hand, the demand for loans tends to decline. Both of these factors will be major focal points in the upcoming earnings reports of the major banks. US Q2 Earnings Week 2 (July 17-23) The second week of the US Q2 earnings season will showcase a more diverse range of industry sectors, including banking, technology, and consumer discretionary. During the first half of the week, the focus will remain on bank stocks, with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs scheduled to announce their earnings. Moving into the mid-week, the spotlight will shift to Netflixand the market darling, Tesla. Netflix is set to announce its Q2 earnings after the US market closes on July 19th. In the first quarter, Netflix's performance was not particularly impressive, with a modest year-on-year revenue increase of 3.7% but a significant drop of 18% in net profit. The company continues to face concerns regarding its subscriber growth, which remains a key watch point for the Q2 report. On the same day, Tesla will also unveil its Q2 earnings. Market expectations are for its earnings per share (EPS) to slightly increase from $0.65 in the same period last year to $0.69. However, the key watch point for Tesla will be its profitability, as the company's net profit margin saw a significant contraction of nearly 40% in the previous quarter following multiple rounds of price cuts. US Q2 Earnings Week 3 (July 24-30) The spotlight of the third week of the US Q2 earnings season will be dominated by tech giants. On July 25th, Tuesday, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, and Snap will be on the central stage. On July 26th, Wednesday, Facebook (Meta), Boeing, and Coca-Cola will release their Q2 earnings report. On July 27th, Thursday, investors' eyes will turn to Amazon, Intel, and McDonald's Corp. These companies' earnings reports will not only provide insights into their individual business performance but also shed light on broader trends in technology development and consumer behaviour. For example, investors and analysts will be particularly interested in gaining a glimpse into the progress and potential of AI-related business models from companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta. US Q2 Earnings Week 4 (July 31-August 6) Entering the first week of August, investors will likely be closely watching the performance of Apple, AMD, and Alibaba. Apple, with its stock price reaching new all-time highs in recent times, is anticipated to report an approximately 2% yearly decline on both revenues and earnings. AMD, as a leading chip company benefiting from the AI gold rush this year, has seen its share price soar by over 70% year to date, despite a dip in net income and margin in Q1. Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, has been busy making large-scale strategic moves in the past quarter. This includes breaking down the conglomerate into six business units and undergoing a leadership reshuffle. Investors will eagerly await Alibaba's presentation of its business performance after all these major changes. US Q2 Earnings Season: Summary The upcoming US Q2 earnings season is not only a test for US companies individually but also a crucial barometer for overall market sentiment. If the earnings season demonstrates strength and resilience, it is likely to bolster the market's existing bullish momentum, which has faced criticism for being disconnected from the US economy fundamentally. However, if the earnings season highlights the adverse impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, it could prompt a reassessment of the prevailing optimism in the first half of 2023.

Thanks for sharing great content @THT this was an interesting read. All the best - MongiIG

Are there dark clouds on the horizon for the Nikkei 225? Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Shares Nikkei 225 Japanese yen Market trend Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 Nikkei 225: one of the top performing global stock indices to date The Nikkei 225 ended the first half of the year narrowly behind the Nasdaq as foreign investors piled in but the beginning of the second half of the year looks less rosy. According to DailyFX strategist Richard Snow “the Nikkei has been one of the top performing equity indices in the world during the first half of 2023, bested only by the high-flying, tech heavy Nasdaq. In fact, the Nikkei ended 1H having risen 27.8%, only a little less than the Nasdaq at 29.86%.” Year-to-date Nikkei 225, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average comparison chart Source: Google Finance Ongoing monetary support from the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and a weaker yen have made Japanese stocks an attractive proposition for fund managers. The ultra-lose monetary policy allows for ample access to credit while the yen depreciation improves company profitability and makes Japanese stocks cheaper to buy for foreign buyers. USD/JPY Daily Candlesticks Chart Source: Tradingview The recent yen appreciation on news of broad participation in this year's wage increases has had a detrimental effect on the Nikkei 225 rally as it points to possible policy normalisation. Technical analysis outlook on the Nikkei 225 The Nikkei 225 formed a double top on its weekly and daily charts with last week’s Bearish Engulfing pattern on the weekly chart being followed by this week’s slide, a clear technical sign of at least an interim top being formed. Nikkei 225 Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview The March-to-June uptrend line at 31,145.30 represents a potential first downside target, followed by the double top downside target at 30,841.09 and the February and September 2021 highs at 30,795.78 to 30,714.52. The pattern downside target can be found by taking the distance from the 33,772.89 June peak to the 32,306.99 late-June low and project it lower from that low. This gives a target of 32,306.99 – 1,465.90 = 30,841.09. Nikkei 225 Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview On the way down the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and 8 June low at 31,427.86 to 31,420.45 may offer short-term support. Only a currently not expected bullish reversal, rise and daily chart close above the recent highs at 33,762.81 to 33,772.89 would invalidate the bearish double top pattern which can be spotted better on the daily chart as it looks like an “M.”

Money management is all about capital preservation, so that one will be able to stay in the game for the long haul. Source: Bloomberg Indices Investment management Risk Asset Nasdaq-100 Analytics Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 Preserving your capital is the key to even staying in the game Many traders tend to focus on achieving a high win rate in their trades, but an often overlooked but essential aspect of the trading process is also about money management. Money management is all about capital preservation, so that one will be able to stay in the game for the long haul and not let an unexpected streak of losing trades wipe out the entire portfolio. A phrase basically summarises it: “Trading is a marathon and not a sprint”. As an example, a trader may have a high winning rate of 80%, but if the losses from the 20% losing trades are large enough to wipe out all the profits from the winning trades, the trading account could still be unsustainable over the long run. A common trading statistics is that 90% of all traders fail and while there are many reasons to account for the high failure rate, poor money management may be one key reason as to why trading accounts are blown quickly. Example: A trader with high 80% win rate but less ideal money management With that, here are some concepts that may be useful for staying in the game: 1. Stagger your trade position into different entries to limit your risk When a trader has established a view on the direction of a certain asset, he/she may have the tendency to go all-in on a single trade. While that is surely up to one’s risk appetite, the risks are relatively higher as compared to splitting up the entries into different tranches, especially if the asset price does not move as initially intended. As an example, in January 2023, a trader may establish that a trend reversal could be in place for the Nasdaq 100 index after seeing an upward break of a key trendline resistance and its 200-day moving average (MA). He may choose to go all-in with a long-positioning in the Nasdaq 100 index there and then, but he should be prepared to weather the losses if things do not go his way. On the other hand, he may prefer to put in one-third of his intended positioning, wait for subsequent confirmation of the upward trend potentially on a breakout to new higher high, before building up his positioning further. On the downside, he may use a trailing-stop loss to protect his profits because capital preservation will always be the key to staying in the game. The example is as depicted below. Fair enough, some may argue that he will be much more profitable if he chose to put in all of his intended positioning at one shot back in January 2023, but he will also run the risk of experiencing hefty losses if the breakout turns out to be a false signal, which could end up wiping out a significant portion of his portfolio. Staggering out the entries may allow one to seek for more signs of trend confirmation. Furthermore, a trend tends to build over a period of time, which should provide one with ample opportunities to buy on retracements or to buy on breakouts. Example: Source: IG charts 2. Limiting the amount to risk on each trade However convinced you are in a trade setup, there is always the chance that it could turn out wrong. With that, being overly exposed to a single asset in your trading account can end up increasing the likelihood of taking on significant losses, even if you have risk management measures in place. Placing a limit on how much to risk on each trade may avoid having a series of bad trades draining out all the profits in your account. This may be done through limiting a certain percentage of your portfolio eg. 5% or 10%, or by an absolute amount. For example, if you have a system to risk 2% of your $100,000 portfolio on each of your trades, a drastic scenario of having ten consecutive losing trades will leave you with $81,700 to still stay in the game. In the case of using an absolute amount, with a system to risk $2,000 on each of your trades, ten consecutive losing trades will leave you with $80,000. Having a system in place and the discipline to adhere to it will help you avoid overextending yourself to just a small handful of trades, which may be the ultimatum to wipe out your portfolio. 3. Build on your strength and limit areas of weakness After trading for some time, you will be able to clock some statistics on your trading performance for a certain asset (or how badly). Otherwise, the IG platform has a trade analytics tool to track your trades and provide you with a breakdown of key metrics such as return rate, win rate and profit/loss ratio on your trading history. Based on the information, you will be able to establish which are your areas of expertise and also if your average losses are consistently towering above your gains. Instilling a suitable risk-to-reward ratio for each trade may be an approach to ensure that losses are kept relatively small as compared to potential gains. The key here may also be to focus more on your strength and reduce your position sizing at areas of weakness until performance shows significant improvement. Example: Source: IG

Anticipating a significant increase in revenue, Tesla is set to release its Q2 results on Wednesday, July 19. With record sales in China, can it sustain its growth and justify its valuation in an increasingly competitive market? Source: Bloomberg Shares Tesla, Inc. Tesla Forecasting Relative strength index Valuation Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 Anticipation for Tesla's Q2 results When is Tesla’s results date? Wednesday, July 19, after the market closes, is when we can expect Tesla, Inc. to release its figures for the second quarter of this year. Tesla predictions post Q2 results Following what were clear beats on deliveries, the forecasts are for an increase in revenue. This increase is expected to best first quarter figures and what we saw for the same quarter a year earlier. Insight into Tesla's delivery numbers Breaking down the deliveries, the preliminary print showed 466K, an increase of over 10% quarter-on-quarter (q/q). Production was higher at 480K, up 9% over the same period. This reduced the gap between it and deliveries, though a gap still exists, raising the net tally after consecutive quarters of excess supply. As a percentage, Model X and S rose to 4% of total deliveries, a big increase for the quarter. Consequently, the share of the lower-margin Model 3 and Y dropped, even if retaining an obvious and near-full majority. Record sales in China of over 93K for the month of June were a big plus, according to data from China’s Passenger Car Association. These sales showed gains of nearly 19% from a year earlier. Keys to justifying Tesla's valuation This quarter has seen big moves in partnerships in the EV charging space for Tesla. It includes automakers choosing its Supercharger network and/or adopting its charging standard. Price reductions have been less pronounced compared to the first quarter’s ‘EV price war’ cuts. Along with eligibility for the Inflation Reduction Act’s $7,500 tax credit, this is seen as a boon. It aids in maintaining price stability and competitive price ranges. This comes after pushing for high volumes compared to the previous “lower volume and high margin” approach, as CEO Elon Musk pointed out after the Q1 earnings release. Forecasts for Tesla's revenue and EPS Forecasts suggest revenue is expected to rise to $24.57bn, up from Q1's $23.33bn and Q2 2022's $16.93bn. However, earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to drop to $0.82, down from Q1's $0.85 but higher than Q2's $0.76. This figure has been revised higher over the past two months (source: Refinitiv). While it might not have bested estimates last time around, Tesla does have a decent history of beats. Analyst recommendations on Tesla's shares Analyst recommendations are more spread out compared to previous months. There's been an uptick in those venturing into ‘sell’ and ‘heavy underweight territory’, rising to two and four respectively. The number of those in ‘strong buy’ territory has dropped to six, 'buy' stands at 12. A larger group of 19 are opting to 'hold'. The average target is $213.9, which is beneath its current share price (source: Refinitiv). Trading Tesla’s Q2 results: Weekly technical overview What a difference a quarter can make. With a change in the key technical indicators on the weekly time frame for Tesla’s share price, a breach is not just out of its previous bear channel covered in the first quarter earnings preview, but now in a smaller and narrower bull channel as seen in the chart below. Strong technical indicators in the weekly time frame The technicals are naturally stronger on the daily time frame but here on the weekly time frame, we’re seeing the price above all its main moving averages and near the upper end of both the Bollinger Band and the bull channel. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is just beneath what is considered to be overbought territory. There is a sizable margin on the DMI (Directional Movement Index) front between the +DI and -DI. The ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) reading isn’t far off a decent trending figure. However, combined with a sizable channel (even if narrower than the prior weekly bear), it makes its technical overview more ‘bull average’ for now than ‘stalling bull trend’. Strategic standpoint for buying and selling Tesla stocks From a strategic standpoint, that puts buys into the conformist camp and allots sells for contrarians but this doesn’t mean conformists ought to initiate without caution, especially on any pullback that could take the price to the lower end of the channel. As a result, buying off the weekly 1st Support level should ideally be done only after a significant reversal for those opting to go conformist. It's crucial to understand what’s on offer in terms of upside follow-through for breakouts above its 1st Resistance. Contrarian approach and impact of earnings release Those who don’t expect the recent bullish moves to last and favour going contrarian should consider shorting the 1st Resistance level only after a reversal. Sell-breakouts for more follow-through should be considered if eying a price near or beneath key weekly moving averages (such as the 50-week and 200-week). It's important to remember that the earnings release is a fundamental event. Depending on how far results veer from expectations, it can easily test even longer-term weekly technical levels. This could result in a more breakout vs. reversal strategic scenario when the figures hit the wires. Source: IG Tesla weekly chart with key technical indicators (from IG’s trading platform) Source: IG Tesla weekly chart with IG client sentiment Source: IG IG Client sentiment* and short interest for Tesla shares Looking at the weekly chart, where the IG client sentiment (as an average for the week) is plotted as a blue-dotted line with the left axis representing % long, it's clear that the majority have remained in buy territory throughout this period. They reached extreme levels when prices dipped beneath $150, but fell back closer to heavy buy during the recovery. The latest reading from this morning (see image below) shows a heavy long position of 67% among retail traders, higher than the 64% at the start of this month. Short interest has averaged higher over the past quarter, reaching over 96.48m shares, now representing 3.04% of the total, up from 2.7% at the start of the second quarter. These figures, however, are nowhere near the levels seen in 2019 when they briefly topped 600m (source: Refinitiv). Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of the week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the first trading day of this month, Monday, July 3rd.

Dollar falls after US CPI data The USD weakened further on Wednesday with the release of the US consumer price index. Headline CPI growth slowed to top 3% year-over-year (YoY), lower than the 3.1% expected. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 July 2023 The US dollar The USD index is closing down on the highly psychological level of 100, a level it hasn't touched since 18 April 2022, some 15 months ago the USD weakened further on Wednesday with the release of the US consumer price index (CPI). Headline CPI growth slowed to top 3% year-over-year (YoY), lower than the 3.1% expected. We have to go back to February 2021 to find a lower consumer price index (CPI). Core CPI rose by 4.8% YoY, also missing estimates of 5%. The next test for the USD is expected to be the producer price index, which is expected to rise by 0.4% in June compared to a year ago. Core PPI, though, is expected to rise by 2.6% after rising by 2.8% in May. The weak dollar supported US equity markets on Wednesday. It was also good news for Gold, which is now trading at a two-and-a-half-month high. China overview Even though China's trade surplus widened in June, this shouldn't hide the fact that this is another sign the world's second-largest economy is dwindling. China's trade missed forecasts for both imports and exports. Imports fell 6.8% in June compared to a year ago. Economists anticipated a smaller drop of 4.1%. Exports also fell by 12.8%, more than the 10% expected. To find a higher drop, we have to go back to February 2020, when China's exports came virtually to a halt. China's export slump comes as sluggish overseas economies struggle with inflation and rising interest rates and buy fewer goods from Chinese factories. Chinese factory activity has been shrinking in recent months, and policymakers are now reckoning with the prospect of prolonged slower growth in the world's second-largest economy of around 3% annually, according to economists' forecasts. That is less than half the rates typical throughout recent decades and gives the impression of an economy in recession. The UK Economy The UK economy shrank by 0.1% in May compared to April; this is better than the -0.3% economists had anticipated. Industrial production fell by 2.6% in May compared to last year, in line with expectations. Walt Disney Over in the US, Walt Disney shares and all sessions on the IG platform were up late on Wednesday. After the bell, The Walt Disney Company said it would extend CEO Bob Iger's deal by two years, taking his tenure through 2026. Iger told CNBC in February that he had no intention to stay longer than two years in his post, which would have taken him through 2024. Iger had a successful 15 years at the company as CEO, starting in 2005, during which the company expanded in many directions, including the acquisition of Pixar for $7.4 billion, Marvel for $4 billion, and possibly the most lucrative deal in the purchase of Lucasfilm from George Lucas to acquire the Star Wars multimedia franchise and Indiana Jones series. Iger returned to Disney in November, retaking the job from Bob Chapek, who was appointed CEO in early 2020. Iger planned to prepare his next successor during his new stint as CEO. Delta Air Lines Investors and traders are now looking west as the US earnings season is about to start. Before US banks open tomorrow, a few stocks are due to report today. Delta Air Lines is one of them. Over the past three months, the stock has risen some 53%, benefiting from high demand for travel following the pandemic. But there is still a long way to go to get Delta Air Lines's share of pre-pandemic levels Since February 2020, Delta's stock has been down about 15.5%. Will this upcoming report give the stock another boost? PepsiCo The street expects earnings of $2.35 per share, up 64% YOY. Revenue is forecast to rise by 11.9% YoY to $15.46 billion. For the full fiscal year, analysts are currently forecasting Earnings per share (EPS) of $6.13 on revenue of $56.86 billion PepsiCo is also due to report Q2 earnings before the opening bell. The street expects the group to post adjusted earnings of $1.96 per share, which would be a 5.4% increase on the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is expected to rise by 7.4% YoY to $21.72 billion. Investors also await any potential update on the full-year forecast. PepsiCo currently expects to post revenue of $90.97 billion, up 5.3%, and EPS of $7.96 billion, up 7.8%. US crude oil US Crude stocks rose much more than expected last week, according to the enviromental impact assessment (EIA) crude inventories rose by 5.9 million barrels last week as net crude imports rose by 600,000 barrels per day. U.S. gasoline stocks were virtually unchanged, falling by just 3,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 4.8 million barrels.

Stocks rallied sharply after the US inflation print yesterday, as the slower growth in prices in June reduced the pressure on the Fed for more rate hikes. Asian stocks enjoyed strong gains, while Beijing also pledged to support tech platforms, raising hopes that a crackdown on the sector was easing. UK GDP fell 0.1% between April and May, but this was better than expected. Today is something of a lull between CPI data and US bank earnings tomorrow, though US PPI and initial jobless claims are on the calendar for the session.

Look Ahead to 13/7/23: China trade; US PPI; Delta; PepsiCo US producer price data will be in focus after CPI showed that consumer prices rose by less than economists had forecast in June. Then, China releases trade figures. Plus, keep an eye out for earnings from Delta Airlines, Conagra Brands, and PepsiCo. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023

Charting the Markets: 12 July Stock indices remain bid ahead of U.S. CPI release. WTI, gold and natural gas remain bid ahead of U.S. inflation publication. And Dollar weakens ahead of US CPI, driving EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher and weighing on USD/CAD. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

WTI, gold and natural gas remain bid ahead of U.S. inflation publication Outlook on WTI, gold and natural gas ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI for June. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 WTI trades in 2 ½ month highs WTI’s steady advance on the back of tighter supply after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia announced additional production cuts for August has taken it to a 2 ½ month high, close to the $75 mark. Above it beckons the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.13. Minor support below the $74.70 May peak can be seen between the mid-May and early June highs at $73.82 to $73.89. Further minor support sits at the late June high at $72.70. Source: ProRealTime Gold gradually rises ahead of key U.S. inflation reading The gold price has been slowly rising from its $1,903 per troy ounce early July low and has so far reached a 2-week high at $1,941 ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print for June. Resistance can be found between the $1,970 mid-April low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,962. Support sits at the mid-June low at $1,925 and at the 23 June low at $1,911. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas prices rise on two consecutive days Natural gas price rises seem to be running out of steam around Tuesday’s high at $2.73 MMBtu, marginally below the $2.7836 May peak and the early July high at $2.789. While this resistance area caps, the decline seen from the June peak at $2.930 remains intact. A fall through the late June low at $2.617 would put last week’s low at $2.534 back on the cards. Source: ProRealTime

Stock indices remain bid ahead of U.S. CPI release Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation report for June. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 FTSE 100 stabilises ahead of U.S. inflation data The FTSE 100 managed to stabilise above its March low at 7,204 ahead of today’s key U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) which is expected to come in at 3.1% in June, following May's 4% year-on-year increase. A rise above Monday’s high at 7,306 would put the 7,331 late March low on the map. Far more significant resistance can be seen between the May and early June lows at 7,401 to 7,433. While this area caps, overall downside pressure should retain the upper hand. A fall through last week’s low at 7,228 would push the 7,204 March low to the fore, below which the October 2022 high and November 2022 low at 7,104 to 7,071 can be seen. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 has seen three days of consecutive gains Last week’s sell-off to its 3 ½ months low at 15,455 has been followed by three consecutive days of gains for the DAX 40 which is approaching the 15,886 to 15,967 resistance zone ahead of today’s U.S. inflation print. It is where the early June lows and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) can be seen. Further up a one-month resistance line can be spotted at 16,074. The April-to-July lows at 15,710 to 15,625 should offer support today in case of U.S. inflation remaining stubbornly high or core inflation coming in above its expected 5.0% year-on-year level for June. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 mixed ahead of U.S. CPI release The Nasdaq 100’s recent decline has been very shallow when compared to other U.S. but especially European stock indices with it slipping to Monday’s low at 14,920. Since then it has risen over two consecutive days ahead of today’s U.S. inflation data and earning’s season kicking off later this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at Friday’s 15,211 high, above which key resistance sits at the 15,281 to 15,283 June and early July highs. If overcome, the December 2021 low at 15,502 would be targeted. Support below the psychological 15,000 mark lies at the 6 and 11 July lows at 14,971 ahead of Monday’s 14,920 trough. If this level were to give way, the late June low at 14,689 would be back in the picture. Source: ProRealTime

Can high inflation be a good thing for the US dollar? Join IG Strategist Frank Kaberna in exploring the intricate relationship between inflation and the US dollar, and how upcoming data could affect its value relative to other currencies.

CORRECTION: From 2:26 to 3:43 in the above video, the chart displayed is mistitled as "GBP/EUR" and in fact shows the historical pricing for EUR/GBP The British pound has been showing strength across major forex pairs. Learn what could be driving the pound's recent success, and which pairs are experiencing price extremes as a result. Intro: (0:00) GBP/USD price action: (0:38) GBP/JPY multi-year highs: (1:47) Pound gaining on the euro: (2:27) Are stocks the reason?: (3:43) Global inflation: (4:47)

Crude oil prices are eyeing best month since October so far; recently, retail traders began increasing downside WTI bets and IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator, will oil rise? Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Forex Petroleum IG Group Oil Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 WTI crude oil prices rallied 2.2 percent on Tuesday, extending gains since the end of last this. The past 24 hours also marked the highest close since early May. The commodity is up about 6.2% in July so far. If gains are maintained throughout this month, it would confirm the strongest 4-week period since October, which was when WTI gained 8.4%. The latest push higher brought the commodity to the edge of the 74.68 – 76.28 inflection zone – see chart below. As such, a rejection at resistance could send prices back lower towards the near-term rising trendline from June 28th. Confirming a breakout under the latter exposes support at 66.86 before the critical 63.60 – 65.72 zone kicks in. Otherwise, climbing higher into the inflection zone and surpassing upper resistance at 76.28 exposes the long-term 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This could hold as key resistance, maintaining the broader downside focus. Otherwise, extending gains would open the door to revisiting the 81.44 – 83.48 resistance zone that was reinforced in April. Crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView Crude oil sentiment outlook - bullish The IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) gauge shows that about 59% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. IGCS typically tends to function as a contrarian indicator. Since most traders are still biased to the upside, this suggests that prices may fall down the road. Recently, downside exposure has increased by 14.56% and 54.41% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, these changes hint that the price trend may soon reverse higher despite overall positioning. Crude oil sentiment outlook chart Source: DailyFX This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Recent earnings from Marathon Digital have driven the stock to an eleven-month high. Source: Bloomberg Shares Price Share price Beta Financial analyst Interest rate Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 July 2023 Marathon Digital fundamental background ahead of its Q1 trading statement Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc (MARA) which works in the digital asset technology industry, recently shared its impressive earnings for the quarter that ended on May 10th. The company did better than expected, reporting a loss per share of 5 cents, compared to the forecast loss of 10 cents. Marathon Digital focuses on mining digital assets within the blockchain ecosystem in the United States. It was originally named Marathon Patent Group, Inc., and changed its name to Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc in February 2021 to better reflect its main operations. With a market value of $2.66 billion and a beta of 5.02, Marathon Digital has proven itself to be a major player in the digital asset technology industry. The company has strong financial indicators like a current ratio and quick ratio of 16.22, showing that it can meet its short-term financial obligations. A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34 indicates that borrowing levels remain under control, an important factor in this period of rising interest rates. What do analysts think of Marathon Digital Holdings? Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Marathon Digital – 1 strong buy, 2 buy and 3 hold - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $14.40 for the share, roughly 17% lower than the current price (as of 11 July 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 99% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 11 July 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while only 1% of clients expect the price to decline. This week and month 56% and 60% of clients respectively sold the share, though. Marathon Digital share price – technical view Marathon Digital’s share price has risen by nearly 400% year-to-date and after five consecutive weeks of rising prices doesn’t show any technical signs of topping out. The next upside targets are the May 2021 low at $18.32, followed by the August 2022 high at $18.88 and the July 2021, January-to-March 2022 lows at $19.43 to $20.61. Marathon Digital Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview After a six week sideways trading spell from May to mid-June the Marathon Digital’s share price has suddenly taken off and has been rising in a steep upward manner ever since. Slips should find support along the one-month uptrend line at $15.67, followed by the last daily reaction low made at last Thursday’s $14.51 low. While above this level, immediate upside pressure should be maintained. Marathon Digital Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview Further potential support at the $12.83 April peak is more significant but isn’t expected to be revisited anytime soon.

The usual cautious lead-up to the US CPI release has failed to deter risk appetite in Wall Street overnight, as major US indices pushed higher on strength in value sectors. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Inflation Consumer price index United States Consumer Price Index /business/market_index Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 Market Recap The usual cautious lead-up to the US consumer price index (CPI) release has failed to deter risk appetite in Wall Street overnight, as major US indices pushed higher on strength in value sectors (energy, industrials, financials). The market confidence could arise as broad expectations are positioned for the upcoming US CPI to reflect further moderation in pricing pressures, with the headline figure expected to decline to 3.1% year-on-year from previous 4%. Likewise, the core aspect is expected to decline to 5.0% year-over-year from 5.3% in May. Month-on-month, both the headline and core inflation prints are expected to increase by 0.3%. Another dip in the US core CPI read may reinforce some degree of success in Fed’s tightening moves thus far and leaves room for the Fed to consider a prolonged rate pause for more policy flexibility. Any upside surprise in inflation may put chatters of more rate hikes on the table but given that a 25 basis-point (bp) hike is already heavily priced for the upcoming Fed meeting (88% probability from US Fed funds futures) and the broader trend for inflation is still to the downside, it may potentially have to take a significant beat in inflation numbers to drive a pronounced recalibration in rate pricing. The DJIA has largely traded in a wide consolidation pattern since November last year, with a retest of the upper consolidation range marked with the formation of a double-top pattern. Bearish divergences on Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) seem to point to moderating upward momentum on recent peaks but nevertheless, buyers have managed to defend the double-top neckline overnight at the 33,600 level. Another retest of the upper range may be on watch at the 34,500 level, with any successful upward break potentially leaving the 35,300 level in sight. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a mixed open, with Nikkei -0.35%, ASX +0.67% and KOSPI -0.13% at the time of writing. Chinese equities have managed to see some gains yesterday, with the small step from China authorities in extending stimulus support for the property sector providing hopes for more to come over the coming months. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index is up 1.6% overnight after an initial dip. That said, past instances suggest that signs of policy success in lifting economic conditions may still be needed to drive more sustained gains. China’s economic surprise index has turned in a new two-year low recently, with the worst-is-over conditions still on the lookout among investors. The economic calendar this morning saw a downside surprise in Japan’s producer prices (4.1% versus 4.3% forecast), with its sixth consecutive month of decline seemingly pointing towards some easing upward pressure on consumer prices. With views of a quicker policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on the surge in Japanese workers’ wages lately, today’s wholesale inflation data may slightly dampen some hawkish expectations. A brief breakout for the USD/JPY above its ascending channel pattern has failed to find much follow-through, as interaction at the 145.00 level was faced with strong resistance. The level marked a previous area of intervention by Japanese authorities, which prompted some retreat from buyers. The pair is currently back to retest its 139.60 level of support, with any failure for the level to hold potentially paving the way towards the 136.60 level, where the lower channel trendline resides. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: NZD/USD still stuck below resistance confluence ahead of RBNZ meeting Aggressive tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) thus far has forced its economy into a technical recession, which led market rate expectations to be fully priced for rates to be on hold (5.5%) at the upcoming meeting. This follows after 525 basis-point worth of rate hikes have been delivered to bring its official cash rate to its 14-year high. Nevertheless, the central bank is expected to retain its hawkish stance, given that inflation at 6.7% remains too high for comfort (central bank’s target band is at 1% to 3%). This places a potential hawkish pause scenario on the table, where further rate hikes ahead remain an option if inflation proves to be more persistent. On the weekly chart, the NZD/USD has been trading within a descending channel pattern since the start of the year, with a key resistance confluence at the 0.630 level. This is where the upper channel trendline resistance coincides with the upper edge of the weekly Ichimoku cloud, while its weekly RSI still struggles to overcome its 50 level for now. A reclaim of the 0.630 level may be needed to pave the way to retest its year-to-date high at the 0.654 level next. On the downside, the channel support will place the 0.591 level on watch, if the pair resumes its prevailing downward trend. Source: IG charts Tuesday: DJIA +0.93%; S&P 500 +0.67%; Nasdaq +0.55%, DAX +0.75%, FTSE +0.12%

A brief description of ETFs and four of the best ETFs for UK investors to consider in Q4 2023. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities ETF Investment Stock Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 10 July 2023 Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) is an incredibly popular trading strategy, especially among newer investors. ETFs allow you to buy into a ‘basket of securities’ based on a specific sector or investing approach, without having to buy the assets individually. Investing in an ETF allows for increased exposure to a diversified range of investments, the trading liquidity of equity instead of the rigidity of a mutual fund, and the ability to manage risk by trading futures just like an individual stock. Of course, ETFs can contain all sorts of investments, from stocks to commodities to bonds. Other than the convenience, ETFs usually offer low expense ratios and lower broker commissions than buying the constituent assets individually. Naturally, there are many actively managed ETFs which are more expensive, but none make this short rundown for Q4. With inflation still raging, a potential recession inbound, and uncertainty soaring, the diversification of ETFs appears more attractive than ever. However, it’s worth noting that an ETF will only ever perform as well as its underlying constituents. For the uninitiated, we offer an ETF screener that can help to inform your investing decisions. Best UK ETFs to watch 1. iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector ETF For those looking for a chance of strong capital growth but with a little risk, the iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS ETF could represent a decent choice. The ETF seeks to track the performance of an index composed of U.S. Information Technology Sector companies as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard. It boasts diversified exposure to titanic US tech stocks including top holdings Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, while also highlighting its single country exposure. US information technology stocks suffered from tightening monetary policy in 2022, but a combination of AI-derived enthusiasm due to the success of ChatGPT and evidence that US inflation has now peaked, have helped to spur the larger tech stocks back to former heights. For context, Apple recently soared above a $3 trillion market cap, more than every London-listed company combined. Further, this ETF might represent a decent choice to pair with the below FTSE dividend-tracking ETF; with the former outperforming during boom times and the latter acting as a hedge against inflationary periods. 2. iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF The iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF is a selective ETF which focuses on the most appealing strength of the some of the best FTSE 100 companies — reliable dividend returns. Instead of investing in all 100 companies in the UK’s premier index, it instead offers diversified exposure to the top 50 UK companies within the FTSE 350 with the highest dividend yield (excluding investment trusts). This approach is becoming more popular in 2023 — a FTSE 100 index tracker has returned -3.6% year-to-date, compared to a positive 15% return on the S&P 500. British American Tobacco, Rio Tinto, Imperial Brands, and HSBC are its top four holdings, alongside other miners, banks, and several defensive stocks with a reliable history of dividend pay-outs. Of course, there are risks — dividends are not guaranteed and cyclical companies like Rio Tinto or Persimmon can see dividend yield fall fast in poor years. Many investors look to pair this fund with a NASDAQ 100 index tracker ETF, allowing for some exposure to growth for a balanced portfolio. 3. Invesco Physical Gold ETC Invesco Physical Gold ETC seeks to replicate the performance of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd PM Fix Price/USD, with the fund backed one-to-one with gold bullion held by JP Morgan Chase in London bank vaults. Gold currently trades for a near-record $1,926/oz, as the traditional real asset inflation-hedge, which preserves purchasing power and acts as a protective asset in times of severe market stress once again performs admirably in this inflationary environment. It’s worth noting that during the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by 37% while gold rose by 24%. And this particular financial crunch currently looks far from over — with central banks buying a record 1,136 tons of the precious metal in 2022 and continuing to buy huge amounts this year. Of course, gold’s price trades in an unofficial pair with the US Dollar; usually, rate rises tend to see gold fall as defensive investors seek the safe haven of the world’s reserve currency. However, gold has continued to rise even as monetary policy has tightened, and with some expecting that the US Federal Reserve will soon pause or pivot, gold could go on to new highs. It is worth noting that equities have historically outperformed gold over the long term, as investors tend to reallocate their portfolios towards stocks when growth returns. 4. iShares Core UK Gilts UCITS ETF The iShares Core UK Gilts UCITS ETF may be becoming a more popular ETF choice. Gilts are often seen as a complex investment but are not particularly hard to understand. When the UK government wants to raise money to pay for its spending, it issues bonds known as gilts. The term can range from a few months to decades; investors receive an interest payment (coupon) during the bond’s life and get their capital back on maturation. The price of an individual bond can fluctuate, but gilts are considered practically risk-free for long-term investors who plan to hold their bonds to maturation, as the UK government guarantees repayments. UK bonds suffered heavily during 2022 from the twin dangers of rising inflation and interest rates. However, potentially slowing rate hikes could see bond markets improve, and recessionary fears mean some investors are prepared to buy UK gilts to offset higher risk equities. This circa £1.8 billion ETF makes investing the in UK gilt market very simple; with a total expense of ratio of 0.07%, it is low-cost and also very liquid.

The dollar weakens ahead of the US CPI The dollar continues to weaken ahead of the US consumer price index later today. It now trades at its lowest level since May 8 against the euro. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 July 2023 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to keep its official cash rate at 5.5%. This decision was widely expected. After the previous RBNZ meeting, its Governor Adrian Orr said the bank was seeing borrowing costs peak at that level. The RBNZ was one of the first banks to withdraw its pandemic-era stimulus and, since October 2021, has hiked rates by a total of 525 basis points. Now the RBNZ committee says that "the optical character recognition (OCR) will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future". Even though inflation has come down in recent months, New Zealand is still dealing with 6.7% inflation. Minutes from the latest monetary policy committee meeting said it expects inflation to decline to within the central bank's 1% to 3% target by the second half of 2024. Like everywhere else, the fight against inflation has a cost. The New Zealand economy is currently in a technical recession. The Bank of Canada This afternoon, the Bank of Canada is seen to have added another quarter of a percentage point to its overnight rate, taking it to 5%. Concerns about inflation have increased in recent weeks. If headline inflation has been almost constantly falling since June last year, core inflation appears to be stickier. The core consumer price index (CPI) has also been falling, but at a slower rate than the main index. The USD continues to weaken ahead of the US consumer price index later today. It now trades at its lowest level since May 8 against the EUR. Cable Cable is also rising for a sixth day, closing in on $1.30, a level last seen in April last year. Headline consumer price index (CPI) is expected to decelerate to 3.1% in June YoY, down from 4% in May. Core CPI growth is also expected to slow to 5% after a 5.3% print in May. Since March, the headline CPI figure has been below core inflation. Nvidia Energy prices have substantially fallen, but broad-based inflation seems more stubborn. Following last year's abortive attempt by NVIDIA Corp to buy rival chip maker Arm, the latter is now wanting to bring Nvidia in as an anchor investor. That's according to the FT, which says the tactic is to pump prime interest in Arm's spinoff later this year from parent Softbank. Softbank SoftBank wants to list Arm in an initial public offering (IPO) in New York, possibly as early as September. Nvidia, which is the world's most valuable semiconductor company, was forced last year to abandon its planned $66 billion acquisition of Arm after the deal was challenged by regulators. SoftBank bought Arm for $32 billion in 2016, a valuation that Softbank aims to double on the sale of the business. Many private tech companies and their advisers are watching closely to see if Arm can succeed in launching its IPO in 2023 after a year-long slump in new listings. Oil overview Oil prices were broadly flat overnight during the Asia Pacific region (APAC) session but rose to a 10-week high yesterday afternoon after the Environmental Impact Assessment (ElA) cut its 2023 US crude oil production forecast. The ElA also added that the oil market should remain tight in the second half of 2023, citing strong demand from China combined with the supply cuts announced recently by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The ElA now expects Brent to average $78 a barrel in July and us to average $80 a barrel after a year-long slump in new listings. Oil prices Oil prices were broadly flat overnight during the Asia Pacific region (APAC) session but rose to a 10-week high yesterday afternoon after the ElA cut its 2023 US crude oil production forecast. The ElA also added that the oil market should remain tight in the second half of 2023, citing strong demand from China combined with the supply cuts announced recently by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The ElA now expects Brent to average $78 a barrel in July and up to $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023. OPEC Yesterday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the organisation was seeing global demand for all forms of energy rise by 23% through 2045 and added that limiting or stopping funding new oil projects was unrealistic and unwise. He also acknowledged the need for technology to tackle continued fossil fuel emissions: "We will require innovative solutions such as carbon capture, utilisation, and storage, and hydrogen projects in addition to a circular carbon economy." This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the U.S. inflation report, set to be released later today. Economists are predicting that the consumer price index will have risen by 3.1% in June, following May's 4% increase. In the meantime, global markets have adopted a risk-on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan has climbed almost 1%, signaling a third consecutive day of gains. The U.S. dollar has dipped against major currencies, reaching a two-month low. The yen, in particular, has continued to strengthen, dipping below 140 for the first time in a month. European stocks are also expected to maintain their positive momentum, according to futures indicators. Aside from the U.S. inflation report, market attention will also be focused on the Bank of Canada's policy decision. The central bank is expected to increase interest rates by a quarter-point for the second consecutive time.

Hi @mrButch Welcome to the IG community! You are welcome All the best - MongiIG

Look Ahead to 12/7/23: US CPI; BoC and RBNZ rate decision US CPI figures will give traders a hint of whether or not inflation is easing enough to cool the US central bank’s hawkish stance on rates. Plus, the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is seen keeping rates on hold. Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 July 2023

Charting the Markets: 11 July Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei struggle to maintain bullish momentum. EUR/USD nears April highs while EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY continue their descents. And Brent crude oil and silver probe key resistance while wheat remains under pressure. Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 July 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

The upcoming Netflix results are expected to show a 3% increase in revenue for Q2 2023, or 6% growth on a foreign exchange neutral basis. Source: IG Indices Forex Shares Revenue Netflix Company Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 11 July 2023 Key Takeaways: Netflix is set to report its Q2 2023 earnings on July 19th, and the company has projected an optimistic financial forecast for the fiscal year 2023 The company's main financial indicators for profitability include revenue growth and operating margin, and Netflix aims to maintain double-digit revenue growth, expand operating margins, and generate increasing positive free cash flow Netflix anticipates a 3% increase in revenue for Q2 2023, reaching $8.2 billion, or 6% growth on a foreign exchange neutral basis The introduction of paid sharing has been well-received, and the company has rescheduled the broad launch from late Q1 to Q2, which means that some expected membership growth and revenue benefit will be reflected in Q3 instead of Q2 Netflix expects constant currency revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of 2023, facilitated by the broader rollout of paid sharing and the expansion of its advertising business. The company also targets a 2023 operating margin of 18%-20% and anticipates year-over-year operating profit growth When is the Netflix Inc. earnings date? Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), the Nasdaq listed, world leading internet television network will report its second quarter earnings for 2023 (Q2 2023) on Wednesday the 19th of July. Netflix results Q2 2023 earnings preview, what does ‘The Street’ expect? Netflix Inc. has projected an optimistic financial forecast for the fiscal year 2023. The company's main financial indicators remain revenue growth and operating margin for profitability. The firm's long-term financial goals remain consistent, aiming to maintain double-digit revenue growth, expand operating margins, and generate increasing positive free cash flow. The company is on course to meet its financial objectives for the full year 2023. For the second quarter of 2023, the company anticipates a revenue of $8.2 billion, a 3% increase year over year, or 6% growth on a foreign exchange neutral basis. The recent introduction of paid sharing has been met with positive reception. Despite opportunities to launch broadly in the first quarter, the company identified ways to enhance the user experience. With each launch, the company gains valuable insights, leading to improved results. As a result, the broad launch was rescheduled from late Q1 to Q2. This delay implies that some expected membership growth and revenue benefit will be reflected in Q3 instead of Q2. The majority of Netflix's year-over-year foreign exchange neutral revenue growth in Q2 is anticipated to come from an increase in its paid membership base. This is expected to result in Q2 paid net additions like Q1'23 and a slight increase in year-over-year foreign exchange neutral Average Revenue Per User (ARM). For Q2'23, Netflix forecasts an operating income of $1.6 billion, roughly flat year over year, and an operating margin of 19%, compared to 20% in Q2'22. The year-over-year decline in operating margin is due to the appreciation of the US dollar against most other currencies over the past year. As the company continues to enhance its service, it expects constant currency revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of 2023. This will be facilitated by the broader rollout of paid sharing in Q2 and the expansion of its advertising business. The company also anticipates year-over-year operating profit growth and operating margin expansion for the full year, targeting a 2023 operating margin of 18%-20%. A consensus of estimates from Refinitiv arrives at the following expectations for the Q2 2023 Netflix results: Revenue $8.27bn (+3.70% y/y) Net income on an adjusted basis $1.270bn (-11.01% y/y) Earnings Before tax Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) $1.789bn (-1.30% y/y) EPS of $2.84 (-11.37% y/y) Netflix's ability to meet its long-term financial targets will depend on increasing engagement and improving monetization to fuel revenue growth and increased profitability. This provides a promising outlook for traders looking to invest in a company with a solid growth strategy and a robust financial forecast. How to trade the Netflix results Source: Refinitiv A Refinitiv poll of forty-three analysts maintain a long-term average rating of buy for Netflix (as of the 10th of July 2023. Netflix Inc.: trading view Source: IG The share price of Netflix trades within a short-term range between levels 41315 (support) and 44930 (resistance). The long-term trend for the share remains up as we see the price trading firmly above the 200-day simple moving average (blue line) (200MA). The longer-term uptrend suggests keeping a long bias to trades on the company. Long entry might be considered on either a bullish price reversal near range support (41315) or a break of (close above) range resistance (44930). In this scenario 48335 becomes a longer-term upside resistance target. Should the price instead move to break a confluence of support at around 41315, 36775 becomes the next support target. In this scenario trend followers might prefer to wait for weakness to play out before looking for a bullish price reversal closer to the 36775 level for long entry.

Outlook on the Burberry’s share price ahead of its first quarter trading statement on Friday. Source: Bloomberg Shares Burberry Price Share price Profit Luxury goods Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 July 2023 Burberry’s fundamental background ahead of its Q1 trading statement Burberry: The most recent annual report for Burberry (BRBY) seems very positive at first glance. Not only did their revenue, profits, and overall cash flow improve compared to the previous year, but they also saw a resurgence in sales in China once COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. However, despite these positive developments, Burberry's stock prices dropped over 6% the morning they announced their results. This could be due to how Burberry's performance stacks up against other top-tier luxury brands. For example, LVMH (MC), the French company that owns Dior and Louis Vuitton, reported sales of €79bn (£69bn) and a profit of more than €21bn in 2022, both of which are up 23 per cent. When compared to these numbers, Burberry's growth seems less impressive. Another factor could be declining demand in the US, where Burberry saw a 3% decrease in sales throughout the year and a 7% drop in the last quarter. The largest decrease was in their more affordable items, which could indicate that brands aimed towards ambitious consumers are struggling as US consumption slows down. Despite these challenges, the global luxury market is known for being able to withstand economic downturns. Therefore, a continued slowdown in the US is unlikely to significantly impact Burberry's profits. Currently, Burberry's shares are trading at 18 times their estimated earnings for 2024. Although Burberry's growth may not be as remarkable as LVMH's, its steady expansion suggests that the brand still holds good value amongst its competitors. How to trade Burberry ahead of its Q1 trading statement? Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘hold’ for Burberry – 2 buy, 18 hold and 2 sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 2,342.50 pence for the share, roughly 13% higher than the current price (as of 11 July 2023). Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 77% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 11 July 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 23% of clients expect the price to fall. This month 71% of clients bought the share. Burberry’s share price – technical view The Burberry’s share price, which at the beginning of the year rose by over 30% and made a new all-time high at 2,656 pence in April, has since given back all of this year’s gains. Year-to-date the Burberry’s share price is down around 2%, slightly less than the FTSE 100. Burberry Weekly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-to-2023 bull market at 2,032p is currently being revisited, a level around which the Burberry share price found support in June. While the area between it and the December 2022 low at 1,997.5p hold, a resumption of the long-term uptrend may remain in play. Given the speed of the last few months’ near 25% decline from its all-time record April high at 2,656p, the odds favour further downside with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at 1,881p being eyed, together with the 50% retracement at 1,830.5p. This represents another potential 7%-to-9% decline in the Burberry’s share price. As can be seen on the daily chart, the Burberry’s share price’s descent has remained below its May-to-July downtrend line at 2,081p despite the minor early to mid-June countertrend rally whish ran out of steam at the 2,289p June peak. Burberry Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview A fall through the current July low at 2,001p is likely to occur over the coming days, in which case the mid-November to late December lows at 1,997.5p to 1,973p may offer at least interim support. Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal above the last reaction high on the daily candlestick chart - a daily high which is higher than the one of the candle to its left and right – at the late June 2,165 high would question this medium-term bearish outlook. For a bottom to be formed the 200-day SMA at 2,228p should also be overcome, however, something that isn’t likely to occur in the days ahead.