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Kodiak

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Posts posted by Kodiak

  1. 13 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

    great, so this is just an average run then and bound to continue for at least another few years. 🥳

    Probably, 

    Dont forget to use a wide stop😉

    "To summarize: while the range of returns across 1-year periods have varied from negative 37.0% to +53.2%, the annualized returns across 20 year periods have a much tighter range from +0.5% to +13.2%."

    https://themeasureofaplan.com/us-stock-market-returns-1870s-to-present/

    Returns-by-year.png

    • Like 1
  2. 2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

    Donald J. Trump  @realDonaldTrump

    18m

    “11,000 points gained in the Dow in the 3 years since the Election of President Trump. Today it may hit 29,000. That has NEVER happened before in that time frame. That has added 12.8 Trillion Dollars to the VALUE of American Business.” @Varneyco @FoxNews The best is yet to come!

     

    everyone's waving 'Dow 30,000' hats! I want one😉

    image.png.d2edd07ac9e5c8740da27b03d2720d86.png

    But he lags the democrats😁

    "'Trump’s stock market rally is very good, but still lags Obama and Clinton"

    "The Dow Jones industrial average has gained about 45 percent since Trump was sworn in nearly three years ago. The Dow was up about 53 percent at this point in Obama’s presidency and a whopping 57 percent in Clinton’s early years in office."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/12/28/trumps-stock-market-rally-is-very-good-still-lags-obama-clinton/

    • Like 1
  3. 11 hours ago, backwardation said:

    Let me chime in and add more pepper to this discussion.  I'm consistently profitable (on a weekly basis) and I have some incredible wins. I use a very 'bold' system that breaks every single risk management rule out there.  I use guaranteed stops to gain insane leverage in specific times I deem right.  I keep my accounts small because of constant blow ups.  Here's is what I did in a few hours on Friday using guaranteed stops on an account that had about $1,200 in it: 

    I’m not stating this to show off (well maybe a little).  Took many hard years to get to this level, and its still not even a little easy.  There are many ways play this game, don't let the gurus and trade books shackle your imagination.  My mentor was a bold pit trader who told me about a saying crude traders have:  You can be a bold trader or an old trader (meaning you can grow old trading and making bits every day, or you can be bold and retire early).   I spend little time in forums because I don't like them, but I'm constantly on twitter and discord.  So yes, profitable traders do use forums and social media on a regular basis.  I'd say probably more so than most, but they have their circle of traders.

    "  You can be a bold trader or an old trader (meaning you can grow old trading and making bits every day, or you can be bold and retire early)."

    I always thought bold trader meant someone that blow the account and stop trading😉

    But could be the other way?

    More like Jesse Livermore  in hes early years 😎

     

    • Like 1
  4. Have you found "the holy grail" trading system?😉

    If you are profitable and trade big size IG may have to hedge?

    "

    Protection of your codes

    • Encryption of your codes: your codes are encrypted by encryption keys before being sent to the ProOrder server. They are not transmitted over the internet without encryption. In addition, to preserve the confidentiality of your codes, no ProRealTime employee knows all of the encryption codes.
    • Security audits: ProRealTime organizes voluntary security audits on a regular basis and applies recommended action plans to reinforce IT security.
    • ProRealTime internal rules: ProRealTime does not execute orders for itself via the ProRealTime platform or ProOrder technology. Also, our IT charter and our conflict of interest prevention policy require all employees to declare their operations on financial markets, including via ProRealTime and via ProOrder technology."

    https://trading.prorealtime.com/en/automatic-trading

     

    • Like 1
  5. What about tax in UK 

    I know profit on spreadbetting is taxfree but you have to pay tax on profit using CFD

    But what happens if you make a loss on trading CFD, can you use it in some kind of deduction if you have other income?

     

  6. My prediction for DOW the year 2020 (for what its worth) 😎

    I think we will see some profit taking in January (maybe 5% or so down to 27 000 ish?)

    Then straight up to 30 000 in a couple of months (spring time?)

    Then its time to start worry about the US election and take profit with VIX rising

    If Trump wins we could get a relief rally and if some democrat wins then its time to prepare for a bearmarket in stocks

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/investors-see-sell-off-if-warren-wins-they-said-the-same-about-trump.html

    " “they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president.” 

    "

    He also blasted what he views as her anti-capitalist positions, including a proposed wealth tax.

    “I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. "

     

     

    • Like 1
  7. 57 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

    Absolutely every year-end, without fail, you find some clown writing this type of scare story. Journos gotta write something I suppose. 

    image.png.435c0e9c06af85082ae1ab399748518d.png

    But if you are bull this is great news😁

    Its when the last bear give up and starts buying Tesla the end is near for the bull

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/stock-market-a-contrarian-buy-signal-has-been-triggered.html

    https://www.isabelnet.com/bofaml-bull-bear-indicator-2/

     

     

    • Like 1
  8. Read this

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/03/021403.asp

    "For example, if an at-the-money call option has a delta value of approximately 0.5 - which means that there is a 50% chance the option will end in the money and a 50% chance it will end out of the money - then this delta tells us that it would take two at-the-money call options to hedge one short contract of the underlying. In other words, you need two long call options to hedge one short futures contract. (Two long call options x delta of 0.5 = position delta of 1.0, which equals one short futures position). This means that a one-point rise in the S&P 500 futures (a loss of $250), which you are short, will be offset by a one-point (2 x $125 = $250) gain in the value of the two long call options. In this example, we would say that we are position-delta neutral."

     

     

     

  9. 14 hours ago, dmedin said:

    He's got several decades of evidence against him.  Anyway, all financial speculation is ultimately a 'bubble' in the sense that it is prone to overbuying and overselling.  Yawn, yawn, yawn.

    As long as the bullmarket keep grinding higher all is well

    But in a bearmarket when "everybody" will sell funds and sell bull ETF and buy leveraged bear ETF then we will see how it plays out?

    Probably some change in regulation and ban on shortselling?

    "“In the Russell 2000 Index, for instance, the vast majority of stocks are lower volume, lower value-traded stocks. Today I counted 1,049 stocks that traded less than $5 million in value during the day. That is over half, and almost half of those -- 456 stocks -- traded less than $1 million during the day. Yet through indexation and passive investing, hundreds of billions are linked to stocks like this. The S&P 500 is no different -"

    "but the exit door is the same as it always was."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/michael-burry-explains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  10. "

    Big Trades

    Trading in ETFs usually accounts for about a quarter of the daily volume in U.S. stock markets, but that can leap to nearly 40 percent on some days. These spikes typically coincide with surprise events or policy changes"

     

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-growing-etf-market/?srnd=etfs

     

    "

    'Big Short' investor Michael Burry is calling passive investment a 'bubble.' He's not the only finance luminary sounding the alarm."

     

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/investors-that-have-spoken-out-against-passive-investing-2019-8-1028485512#carl-icahn1

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