Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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Lineal regression line based on the current rally projected for the year ahead, don't strain your neck.
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17 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Oh right. All it takes is to build a validated system. Simple enough then
keep shooting from the hip til you run out of bullets is the only alternative. will you ever get 'lucky' doing that? no.
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Cardinal Ca$h on how to be a Guru scammer Parts 2 and 3;
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A lot has been poured into this thread so about time to boil it up, render it down and pull out the bare bones to see just how simple the process actually is.
On the first page we saw how to define ourselves, what we want, what we have the time to do, our personality and what we are most interested in. We then match that with types of trading and time frames.
So for example you decide you don't have the time to day trade but like the idea of swing trading, you are interested in commodities but note that the average stop loss below the swing low on the daily chart equals £x which is a bit too rich for you but on the H4 chart is only £x which is ok for your account size.
So you decide to swing trade commodities on the H4 chart. Simple.
Next the strategy. You want to swing trade which means buying dips in an uptrend (or selling rallies in a downtrend). So you will need an indicator to show trend plus a confirmation and you will need a entry trigger and confirmation.
An indicator on it's own is worthless. What you need is a combination of indicators that will signal an entry and filter out more losing trades than winning trades. This is crucial, let it sink in.
You don't need a 99% win rate or the 'best' trades or the longest running trades. You just need an entry trigger and filter out more losers than winners.
So what might that look like (made up example);
A/ Trend indicator: an upward sloping MA and MACD above zero to confirm.
B/ Buy dip entry indicator: Heikin Ashi candles change from pullback red to trend colour white and a RSI bounce up off around 50 to confirm.
Well that was simple but now we need to phase 1 test it and that's a simple eyeball backtest of 20 trades so scroll your H4 chart right back then start looking for entries going forward. For testing purposes bolt on a standard risk management of a target of 2x the stop, this can be modified later if the system works.
How long did that all take, a couple of hours? But deciding on what type of trader you want to be only needs to be done once, the system build and phase 1 test took probably less than an hour.
For a Reward of 2 for a risk of 1 (the stop loss) the chart in the post above tells us we need a win rate of at least 35% to be profitable. If the system didn't achieve this on backtest was it close enough to try to modify or do we need to start anew?
Once we have found a simple system that is profitable on backtesting now there is a problem, if you are only getting a couple of trades a week phase 2 testing on demo will take time because you want a reasonable sample size of 20 odd trades, grin and bear it or consider trying a simulator.
Once completing phase 2 if your system survives this far you are ready for phase 3 testing which is on a live account with minimum size.
Additional considerations;
Higher Time Frame - look for trade entries in context with the HTF charts, don't look to trend trade if the HTF is consolidating or about to hit key resistance. Or if the HTF shows any resistance has been beaten and this is the first pullback then think go full throttle.
In the example above a swing trader is looking to buy the swing low and sell the swing high rather than just take 1:2 risk reward, the point is that for testing the set 1:2 is good enough.
Finally, so all in all not as difficult as it all sounded at the beginning, but can this really be enough? If the system is validated then yes, it is enough.
Built it, Validate it, Do it.
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Dax and Dow starting the London session looking for support;
M15 charts;
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I was in the S&P pit surrounded by successful traders & lost nothing but $$ trying to be like other traders. When I stepped back, took what I learned & created my own strategy...I became profitable. Don’t copy someone else’s strategy & make it yours, make your strategy your own.
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Dow and S&P blast off up into clear space, Dax clears recent resistance, Ftse needs to break daily chart resistance to move on to the weekly resistance.
US NFP today, the Wednesday ADP nfp was a good beat so maybe the same today.
h/t to FXStreet for the ADP/NFP payrolls comparison chart.
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Indices continue up. Bonds,Gold and Oil down.
Today the main event is the US NFP at 1:30.
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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Eh? Can't hear
🔈🔉🔊📢📣 actually they probably do listen but just think that re-reading TA for Dummies would be a whole lot easier.🤩
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:
I am, however, interested to learn the truth. The truth is fearless. 😎
The truth is also: most IG clients are suckers and you should bet against them; and that most day traders fail miserably.
What else is true, I wonder?
true, nearly all noobs fail on their first attempt but some of them come back and try again, and again. Those in the 25% not losing money may well have taken many attempts to get there.
One of the main problems noobs have is that they think trading is all about TA but in fact TA is about 5 - 10% of it. They all spend too much time on TA and don't even attempt to start to build a self styled rules based system for trade selection, entry and exit. That's unfortunate because without that they have nothing and the sooner they see that the sooner they start down the right path. I've spent years saying just that on this forum but it's very rare any noobs actually listen.
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:
A career? No way. Making better returns on investment is the only realistic goal. Who has the capital to 'day trade' for a living? I am still not convinced anyone can do that unless they are commanding huge sums of money and happy to live by the seat of their pants. Not good. No wonder most 'day traders' are hustling for additional cash in various places.
get a job and invest any surplus into a buy and hold, fine. alternatively learn to trade for a living. the size of the account is not the make or break factor, to be able to grow an account is and that is done by having a system with a positive expectancy as demonstrated by a positive win rate vs risk/reward ratio on the running total of your trades.
no one is interested in convincing you, no one cares that you think the sum total of all day traders in the world are the 5 you have heard about that sell courses.
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:
I'm not convinced that day trading is better, considering how treacherous it is to short the U.S. Far better to add to positions on dips. These, again, you'd buy and hold. So it might be worthwhile to study charts and try to find bottoms and dips (trending). I'm not talking about client sentiment and trying to call tops.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything, I've no need to. I'm perfectly happy trading away day after day as I've done for years watching noobs come and go. Buy and hold is investing not trading and you just don't have the capital to do that as a career.
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new Trump tweet and the memes come flooding in;
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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:
In retrospect there are some clear signs of bottoms and tops forming, triple MA crossovers, RSI, candle patterns, gaps, the lot 😻
they are not in and out, they are in and staying in, they keep doubling down after being stopped out, see below the exact same thing from my post in early April 2019 in the SSI thread.
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2 minutes ago, andysinclair said:
Yep, me too. I am one of those clients that went short as the market went up...looking back going long (and holding) at any point in the past 6 months would have been profitable. Trying to pick turning points is almost impossible, the trend is your friend...easier said than done though as you start to think "it can't possibly go any higher, must drop soon..."
and yet trying to pick tops or turning points is exactly what they are all trying to do, and failing consistently.
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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:
What concerns me as I look back on the charts is that I didn't buy and hold at that point. Surely that's better than nipping in and out, day trading on pivots?
not if done right, think of the lateral zig zag price takes to get from A to B, more miles = more points than as the crow flies, more work too though obviously.
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6 minutes ago, andysinclair said:
I don't like to hijack this thread, but IG clients have been mainly short for the past 6 months, and more than 2/3rds short since the S&P500 crossed 3000 back in October.
As the market goes down clients go long and as the market goes up clients go short:
and just to reinforce the point that clients are usually on the wrong side here is the latest FXCM SSI showing retail moving into shorts as price starts climbing.
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1 minute ago, andysinclair said:
I don't like to hijack this thread, but IG clients have been mainly short for the past 6 months, and more than 2/3rds short since the S&P500 crossed 3000 back in October.
As the market goes down clients go long and as the market goes up clients go short:
no worries about hijacking the thread your additions are most welcome,especially coming as an afternoon refresher.
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YUAN TALKS @YuanTalks
1m
#Apple shipped about 3.2 mln iphones in #China in Dec, jumping more than 18% y/y, according to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.
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38 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
Is it possible to have on MT$ the 5pm New York closing candles instead of GMT?
sorry I miss-read that and was fooled by the thread title, I'm thinking you are asking can you change the mt4 time zone, if so then no unfortunately, same as the web based platform mt4 is broker time stamped and can't be changed. It's usually only 3rd party platforms such as PRT or Tradingview that allow time zone changes
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Dull morning after a brief early burst from Dax but Dow currently working it's way up to near term resistance .
M15 charts;
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Trading Floor Audio @TradeFloorAudio
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Iran 'may have shot down Boeing 737 plane with 176 on board in error' ... EVE STANDARD An airliner which crashed in flames minutes after taking off from Tehran killing all 176 people on board may have been hit by a missile, it has emerged.
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1 hour ago, Guest th. said:
Hi,
Is it possible to have on MT$ the 5pm New York closing candles instead of GMT?
hi, yes. see this video.
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35 minutes ago, Arthurldn said:
Can you check why the stock Sundial Growers Inc / Nasdaq: SNDL is not available
hi, probably because it's a cannabis producer. IG did have a good number of these new companies offered on the platform but a policy decision lead to the large UK brokers withdrawing them and offering a cannabis index instead.
Indices
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
sometime you see some early movement on a nfp day but always quietens down as the hour approaches.