Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:
The most important bits are blacked out? Who cares if someone makes a good ratio if they've been demo trading or made pennies ... bearing in mind there's an S&P 500 ETF over there that will build you solid returns if you hold it for 5+ years and do absolutely nothing
they are not the important bits at all and to think so shows a clear misunderstanding of what's important and what's not. a win rate with a risk/reward ratio that plots on the profitable side of the graph is ALL you are searching for, once you have that you have it all.
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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:
A proven system ... nope. I have been studying TA hard, but I have not seen a single thing that I would call a 'proven system'. Certainly there are some things that have a higher probability of success than others, but I don't call that 'proven'. I call it 'slightly more likely'. And I still consider that to be gambling and an unsustainable way to make a living.
no, you build a system then you test it to prove it works or not. forget your TA. TA has nothing to do with it.
people believe that a system needs to be complicated and catch every move and ride that move to the max. nothing could be further from the truth.
a simple breakout past the recent high in an uptrending market could be enough. what would you need?
a trend indicator, price action on a chart, a bracket order for entry and a 2x stop loss target.
Here is what such a system could look like on a chart. Would that system be profitable (I don't know) so test it.
if it doesn't work modify or discard and start again, if it does work then do it, a system with proven expectancy is exactly what you are searching for, that's it, start on small size and keep increasing.
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:
I read on Babypips.com that a 'trader' is distinguished from a 'gambler' in terms of whether they have a plan/system. This actually sounds a lot like denial (and hence, perhaps indicative of an addiction).
Check this out - it's pretty much the definition of a trader:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betting_strategy
This is pretty serious stuff. A lot of people lose a lot of money, and they even keep coming back after they've 'blown' their original accounts. That's gambling addiction, pure and simple.
👀 sometimes I do believe I am just wasting my breath 😂
if you have no proven system that has positive expectancy then you are just a gambler riding your emotions, no matter what playing field you are on.
Be different, become a trader instead, build a simple system that has positive expectancy as proven by testing.
Build it. Validate it. Do it.
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sort of, nearly, but not quite. there is such a thing as arbitrage, if enough people do the same thing others will find a way to take advantage and it will cease to work. but at the same time you also need others to join in and push your trade on.
but none of that is the point. your 'edge' or system does not need to be brilliant or complicated. it is just a set of conditions that signals an entry and filters out more losers than winners so you are left with a win rate vs risk reward ratio that gives a profit over a number of trades.
the entries your system signals don't have to be the best entries, just favourable. your trades don't have to be the most profitable, just favourable. you don't have to take all of them, just enough. your filters may block many great trades, doesn't matter.
so long as the system, if adhered to, gives a positive expectancy is all you are looking for. but first you must have a system and second it must be tested to produce reliable stats. That's the only thing that will give confidence and negate the need for emotion.
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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:
It is though. Look at it sliding up and down like a trombone recently😱
yes but who cares? if you are emotionally tied to every trade is a telltale that you have no 'edge', no statistically backed system ruling your decision making. instead you are just riding your emotions which is exactly what a gambler must resort to.
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"Came across a discussion on 'edge' or 'expectancy' that was moderated by a 'guru'. Chatter was all entries, patterns, stop losses, targets etc. That's not 'edge' or 'expectancy'. Edge is mathematical. How often you win and how much you win when you win. Below is mine for 2020"
The Chartist.
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2 hours ago, dmedin said:
Trading isn't very different from gambling or professional poker playing. To the extent that gambling isn't a sustainable choice of profession for most people, trading isn't either. Unless you're trading with someone else's capital, and getting paid a regular salary for it. Or providing technical 'analysis' aka wishful thinking
The reason you see this as being no different from gambling is because that is exactly how you look at it.
Listen to your own commentary; ooh it's up yeah, ooh it's down noooo, up, down, up, down. you may as well be on a race track 🏇🏇
At some point you will realise that that really is not the way.
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Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif tweeted that Iran was finished fighting and was not actively pursuing any kind of escalation to the conflict. Markets look to be in recovery mode after Iran's missile attack. US response seems they are not surprised by Iran and may also be looking to settle the recent escalation.
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Overnight Indices down on news of Iranian missile attack on US military base though S&P already back up to the Monday open price. Bonds and Gold up.
Ger factory orders at 7am. EU business climate data at 10am. US ADP nfp today at 1:15pm may hint at Friday's main NFP release.
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Nice beat on the ISM US non-manu PMI 55 at 3pm giving the Dow a boost up on a check of the daily pivot after a lame day so far.
M15 chart;
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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:
So what happens when the majority of IG clients are right, for example when 90% of them are long on gold or long on Greggs and the price does indeed go up?
yes occasionally they are on the right side but having watched these stats for many years the most common story is that retail traders go long as price falls and go short as price rises. This phenomena is more easily seen on the period charts and is easily missed using just the snap shots.
The research is thorough and well documented on the site and has formed the basis for developing Retail client sentiment data into a contrarian indicator for FXCM and DailyFX and must be well over 10 years old by now.
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Video featuring IG Client Sentiment data;
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Looks like DailyFX are re-vamping their IG client sentiment (market positioning) pages to include a time period chart as well as the snap shot so similar to the way FXCM does it. This makes it easier to track changes in IG client sentiment.
Hover mouse over a market to highlight it and click a then click on chart. Not all markets available as yet.
https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
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Tech ETF vs Cannabis ETF;
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Oh well, there goes the Lambo;
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1 minute ago, CoyFox19 said:
How do you switch to the HTML 5 platform as that is suggested in another post but I can't seem to find the setting in the IG platform settings under my IG as is stated? Using Flash in this day and age is an abomination...
The new HTML 5 Share Dealing platform is expected to be rolled out in the next few weeks. The Spread Bet and CFD HTML 5 platforms are already in use.
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S&P 500. Last 30 years total return 1627%.
Best performing stocks over the last 30 years;
(The Market Ear)
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Just now, dmedin said:
Fair enough, if I was a very well-paid investment manager I would probably sit and do fancy spreadsheets all day too
dam n right 👀
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Is there a website for this?
NO 😜
it's from a investment management company that put out 'tasters' of their research on twitter from time to time. of course you could always close your IG account and give them all your money instead 😮
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10 hours ago, alansari said:
hi i am enquiring the significance of the neckline on double tops and bottoms
hi, crossing the neckline is confirmation and the trigger for trade entry, the question is where do you draw it, should it be horizontal from the first dip between the first shoulder and head or diagonal across both dips.
http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html
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13 hours ago, Galloper said:
My list from pro real time on left and in IG platform on right I have been through prior help without any joy. I know I cant change the IG platform, however I want to make Pro real time match in bars and opening and closing times'and percentage change. I have tried many, many, many different timeframes and every time restarted pro realtime so they settings would take effect to no avail. Please IG help me how can I achieve consistency across these platforms. Any help would be very appreciated. Cheers Mandy.
Hi, check your PRT time zones and market hours. IG have different hours for different markets but I've not seen a list so you'll need to look at each in turn, some close at 10pm while others close and restart at midnight.
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Current relative strength rankings as of yesterday.
h/t to Adaptiv.
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ANOTHER BOEING PLANE HAS JUST CRASHED
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
Iran saying they will not cooperate and will not hand over the black box to Boeing so we'll just put that one down to pilot error then. 🤨