[Dax & Dow]

Good beat on the PMI figure. 54.7 v 53.5 expected.

[Dax & Dow]

Little change so far, both remain in a bull flag. US non-manu PMI at 3pm 53.5 expected (see PMI chart).

[iPad Charts]

1 minute ago, gmwassets said:

Thank you Casey....  agreed but here's what it looks like on my iPad....  I think your image is from a PC?

PC yes, don't know what's going on there.

[Indices]

"adding even more weight to the global breakouts in progress. Note the Shanghai 50 "big guns" index is up +33% YTD – outperforming *all* U.S. indexes by a wide margin. And no one is talking about it."

Macro Charts @MacroCharts

MXWO World Index.

KOSPI Korean Composite.

SSE 50 China 50.

[iPad Charts]

15 minutes ago, gmwassets said:

I am finding on a regular basis that if I view a candle chart on my ipad and then bring up the same chart on my PC is displays different information.  For example... Today's daily chart for Macfarlane  Group PLC shows a red candle for Monday 4th Nov on my PC and a green candle with different open/close values for the same date on my iPad....  This the same for other days last week too.  Please advise if I need to change my settings anywhere as this is very confusing ! 

very odd looking chart;

[SSI, Why Traders Lose]

20 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

I'm currently looking at how sentiment moves with various markets.

Here's confirmation of how clients go "against" the market. The orange line is the S&P 500 over the past 2 months and the blue line is client short sentiment.

As the market goes higher more clients go short, when the market drops more clients go long.

Interesting to see that over the last few days clients have scaled back on short positions as new all time highs are made...

This will probably astonish most followers but doesn't surprise me as I follow this regularly, most just see occasional snap shots and think retail traders are temporary out of sync but it's a continuous phenomena, when the market goes down shorts decrease, longs increase, when the market goes up shorts increase and longs decrease. 

The reason is, as above, they are constantly trying to pick tops and bottoms and repeatedly get it wrong.  

[SSI, Why Traders Lose]

4 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Interesting to see that over the last few days clients have scaled back on short positions as new all time highs are made...

yes, getting tired of repeatedly being stopped out 🙂

[DAX]

12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Your hourly chart for S&P 500 does look like a correction is coming, not necessarily a huge drop though.

hmm yes a bull flag, very bearish ... or try looking at other S&P H1 charts, ... see the difference?

[Recession Obsession]

"The word Recession in this business cycle has become synonymous w/ clickbait amongst Media outlets to get ratings & scaremongering amongst AUM hunters in the Hedge Fund Community, who then get terrible returns / lose lot's of $, because they're still living in Macro era 1997-2007"

AntonKreil @AntonKreil

[watchlists]

9 minutes ago, finky said:

How do i edit watchlists ? want to remove some stocks i am no longer following

Hi, you can only edit watchlists that you have created yourself not the generic ones created by IG.

[Dax & Dow]

Flags formed after a strong day yesterday, support seen at the daily pivot so looking for a break past yesterday's high and an attack on R1.

H1 charts;

[SSI, Why Traders Lose]

The S&P has it made new all time highs but we see retail traders keep doubling down and go increasingly short as the market keeps going higher (IG clients currently 78% short). We have also seen on this forum people so wedded to their bias they can stand no dissenting view, get hostile if anyone dares to suggest their bias might be wrong and who will hold with being wrong for months and even years on end.

In light of the above I refer back to this thread which looks at why most traders lose (see OP) and the number one reason is that retail traders think they are supposed to be picking turning points (tops and bottoms). Though some experienced traders can make a living doing just that most retail traders are just chucking darts no matter how much hopeful confluence to their bias they manage to mangle out of contorted technical analysis.

Instead of looking for turning points you should be looking for continuation points. Price approaches a significant level, fine, let's see what happens.

Price breaks a level, retests the level then continues on with the break.
Price has turned at a level, goes back to retest the level then continues the reversal.
Price is trending then attempts to reverse which fails, becomes a pullback and then continues the trend.

The retest of a significant level does not need to actually tag the level again but there should be some attempt and clear failure to do so when price then turns to continue on.

You are looking to hone that skill to call it right about 50% of the time, the stop loss is just behind the significant level because if the level does get taken out your idea will have been proved wrong. And so long as the take profit average is more than the stop loss average, and you are right 50%, then you will be profitable. 

So in essence you are looking to ride with the market movers rather than trying to second guess them. And so what does your bias have to do with all this? Absolutely nothing, in fact it's worse than nothing because bias acts like a back seat driver constantly giving directions with no immediate reference to the actual road ahead.
 

[Stop Losses]

3 hours ago, Nick1970 said:

How can my position be STOPPED when the stock doesn't trade at the trigger price?

 

 

Hi, are you sure the bid or ask price rather than the mid price was not hit?

[Spread bets on Wall St.]

9 hours ago, Tubbjess said:

I’m fairly new to spread betting but I’ve made some bets on the Dow (Wall St on IG) and I have found that the current price on an open position is always about 60 points lower than the current price (sell/offer) quoted. I guess this is something to do with IG’s charges but can someone explain if it is and how it’s calculated?

hi, not sure what you are referring to, the charge is the spread which on Dow is typically 1.6 points though may widen temporarily for short periods on high volatility, can you screenshot the chart to highlight your point.

[Indices]

Strong push up through the all time high for Dow yesterday, Dax follows. Ftse approaching near term resistance, ASX remains mid range. Emerging markets ETF gaps higher continuing the breakout.

[Daily Dashboard]

Looking increasingly risk on. Indices and Oil up, Gold and Bonds down. Chart Ftse looking to break up past near term resistance.

US non-manu PMIs at 3pm continued expansion expected.

[Indices]

Just now, dmedin said:

Where did you get this one from?  Not barcharts.com?

no, it's https://www.cotbase.com/ , I've used it for years but a while back they revamped the site and introduced a registration and subscription so I started looking elsewhere but it's still the best one and the basic subscription is free so you just need to register.

[Indices]

Dow COT net positions update;

[Earnings Calendar]

Earnings calendar for this week, still a few big names to go through;

[Dax & Dow]

Dow tagged it's ATH overnight (= monthly chart resistance level purple) and has since just pulled back slightly, Dax is following. Good news data last week shows the US economy remains strong with mostly good earnings reported as well as emerging markets outlook improving bodes well for Dow, and where the Dow leads others tend to follow.

[What makes a index move]

14 hours ago, Seyyub said:

Thank you. So when people trade a index are they trading based  on the macro news and the news of the highest weighted companies in the index?

That's correct, an index is a general gauge of the health of a country's economy if the basket contains the largest companies overall or sector performance if it's a specialist index.

[Indices]

Dow just tucked under it's all time high, Dax also looking to go higher. Ftse and ASX still trapped.

Callum Thomas "while the S&P500 made a new all time high, so too did the MSCI ACWI (global equities), and interestingly enough 1/3rd of countries are now in a "bull market"

[Daily Dashboard]

Overnight Indices up. Bonds, Gold and Oil down, USD down, Crypto up. Chart CAT up 5% on Friday and now at 2019 highs.

Not much on the calendar, JPY bank holiday, EU PMI's at 10am and Lagarde speaks at 7:30pm for first time as ECB president.

[Bitcoin]

Interesting to see BTC responding so well to Daily Pivot Points.

Heiken Ashi Smoothed over 5 point Renko Range bars;

[What makes a index move]

1 hour ago, Seyyub said:

I have a interesting question. If the DAX is a index of 30 companies and the DAX chart plots the prices for these 30 companies then why do we get interesting patterns on the DAX like double bottoms, double tops, trendline breakouts etc. I would have thought the DAX charts would not respect technical analysis as prices would just make swings all over the place and not respect technical setups. Many times I have seen price bounce off 00 levels. Do people trade the DAX which then affects the stock price or do people trade stocks which then moves the index?

If the 30 companies in the DAX move the index then can someone please explain why on the chart of a DAX or any index,  when we get a double top or a double bottom,  why does the price go in the opposite direction.  What is actually happening to the prices of the stocks that move the index when we get these setups?

Hi, an index is designed to mimic or track a basket of companies but won't do that 100% in real time as an index is a market unto itself with it's own market participants who will drive price up or down irrespective of the basket companies. So neither actually drives the other and so you get index traders responding to index chart patterns and structure regardless of what the basket is doing. Imbalances between index and basket will occur from time to time but will eventually work itself out.

It's the same for ETFs that are designed to mimic or track an index, they are their own market and price will swing according to the actions of that market's participants rather than the index the ETF is based on.