Caseynotes

Nice demonstration of price recognition of multi-time frame support and resistance levels and daily pivot points on today's M5 Dax chart. Note that all these levels were pre-existing on this morning's chart and have been adhered to with remarkable precision throughout the day as Dax climbed through the ranks. (For the MTF S/R levels see legend top of chart in Blue).

US market open 10 min, Dax just dropping back to test R3 while Dow just under R2. H1 charts;

Interest rate change expectations; ECB on Thursday, FOMC next week Wednesday, BoE next week Thursday. ForexFlow @forexflowlive 36m Interest rate expectation update: -Jul #FOMC 25bp cut 84.5%, 50bp 15.5%. -Jul #ECB 61.1% unch, 38.9% 10bp cut. -Aug #BOE unch 97.4%, 2.6% 25bp cut -Sep #BOC 90.2% unch, 9.8% 25bp cut

Looks like the bulls are trying get a bounce up off the recent low after the gap down around 2416 which is a 50% retracement from that last impulse move, though by the last white volume candle they are having to fight for it.

yes, it's worth checking these 2 IG sites at the weekends for content; https://community.ig.com/igtv/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwvras8SRKKhx_cboj2p1nw

You've had a good run down with this one and it's at an interesting junction, on the H4 price has broken below the May low and looks to be testing the underside as possible resistance so may go lower but also may be about to retrace back up, worth watching closely.

Missed this IG video from 15 July on Dow theory, some history and more recent updates. 20 min.

Hi, yes you need to be on the DMA platform to see the L2 data. https://www.ig.com/uk/l2-trading-platform

BTC tested support at 10044 but still looks inclined to try lower rather than head back up, short term resistance at 10660. H4 chart;

Still hanging around 56 looking due to test 57 again. H4 chart;

Gold searching for support, may find it here at prior low 1415 otherwise it could be all the way back down to 1400. H4 chart;

Dax and Dow already checked R1 and just easing off before the European open so Dow must be thinking of a test of Friday's high around 27333 today, Dax should follow.

Directional continuation yesterday and this morning with continued expectation of Fed and ECB taking the lower rates line, Asian market most relieved. Daily charts;

Is this a problem for UK users this morning. still warnings in place see pic; https://status.ig.com/

Overnight, Indices and USD up, Bonds and Gold down, Crypto down. Chart Gold. Today, EU bank lending, UK Tory leadership contest, US housing.

Awesome is a momentum indicator and is going to have some lag, the green AW bar is just saying that the downward momentum has eased compared to the previous bar so it's belatedly picked up on the 2 green chart bars detracting from the overall down momentum, another chart red bar or two will see the AW change back to red. https://www.tradingview.com/wiki/Awesome_Oscillator_(AO)

Additional: 5/ don't move my stop unless it's to lock in profit. 6/ remember that spread and min stop values are variable. 7/ Let the trade play out, avoid trying to micro manage during the trade. to be continued ...

your original stop level was in a reasonable place in relation to the trade idea and hasn't been hit as yet, so lessons from this one trade so far are; not to get in too early not to get out too early wait for validation of the trade idea be wary of consolidation especially on the lower time frames.

no, for the reason I gave concerning the stop previously, you might get away with this time but one day you will be really really sorry.

yeah, probably.

there is always a case for either direction so look at structure, decide on probabilities then decide what you need to see to validate the decision before entry. The mistake wasn't the call, it was not waiting for validation. the 11am turned out to be another pause bar so with the entry too early are stuck in a 50/50 situation when you really need probability on your side.

yes, the H1 chart players halted the 11am bar going down further right at the 9am bar close level, they stepped in to prevent a reversal pattern showing up indicating they are still in control of price. The stop is fine because if hit the idea behind the trade would be invalidated, but the entry was before it was clear the bears were actually in the driving seat.

you are anticipating this pullback to roll over, wait to see if it does. two ways to play it but the H1 chart looks key so you could play it straight off that, so a close below 696 and entry on the 12pm bar continuation down or switch to the lower time frame and wait for a pullback to enter short. This 11am bar is crucial, after an inside bar the next bar should be directional, either continuation up or reversal back down, don't really want to see continued uncertainty with another pause bar but it's looking like that may happen, see if someone steps in in the last 15 min.

There was a strong bullish open with a test and acceptance of support at 682 so need to be a bit cautious shorting, the H1 chart looks to be the give away one with the last candle (10am) an inside pause, the next candle could be either a continuation up candle or a reversal candle. A close of this 11 am candle below the 9am candle would seem to signal the reversal scenario was in play.

I think one of the most valuable tools for saving time is a simulator, you are able to run a weeks worth of system checking in a few hours on a Saturday afternoon with a read out stating plainly if the system is likely to be viable or not, yes it would still need to be checked out live but you have a head start in saving yourself a week on demo. Sure you can do similar with just straight manual back testing but it's too easy to con yourself using that method. With a sim you can slow fast forward to find the set up, stop to set the orders, then fast forward to see the result which is recorded for you, run 20 - 30 trades and see the aggregate score, throw away and start again or refine and retest.