Caseynotes

Yes, major news events can cause very sudden and major disruption to order flow, they can cause sudden reversals and start new long term trends. They are times when spread widens, volatility increases and liquidity can dry up which is why many retail traders avoid trading around them altogether. You should certainly know when they are due, I check the econ calendar every day and try to point out the major ones in the daily dashboard thread in the mornings.

The sudden drop at exactly 13:30 had nothing to do with your chart patterns, it was due to the figures in the US data release. 🤣🤣

Ah right, so you knew what the data release at 1:30 was going to be then, why didn't you tell the rest of us what the figures were going to be?

80% success on demo proves nothing, 100% failure on live proves everything which is why I have this stance. Entering trades with no real reason or rules based plan is just punting and will fail (see the connection?). Emotions can't yet be surgically removed, they are yours to keep, which is why you need a rules based plan (full circle).

Dow closing in on yesterday's high with CPI and jobs data in a few minutes. Data these days is a double edged sword, don't want to see figures so good they reduce the expectancy of a rate cut latter this month. Dax struggling to stay above S1.

How many times have you been round this block, demo - live - demo - live ..., success - failure - success - failure .... Again, there is no such thing as success on demo, not 80% not any %.

Yes. Of course, if you have no confidence it's because you have no real reasoning or validation for taking the trade and if you don't have that how will you know when the trade idea becomes invalid, you've gone back to just punting 🤨 When on demo every time you get away with it reinforces bad choices and when you don't get away with it it's just forgotten because there are no real consequences, and then you go back to live and suddenly there are very real consequences.

The strongest line on the chart is the horizontal support line, horizontals are always stronger than diagonals and for a short the most recent low is the FTA (first trouble area) where you should consider bailing if price can't swiftly break through.

I think for anyone not to sure of in-trade management the best solution is to concentrate on identifying good entries and entry execution and just fire a bracket order at it so a market order entry with approp stop loss and a take profit at 2:1 and let it sink or swim. You need to get your entries right first, later you can work on how best to manage it.

On the M15 I see a spike and bull channel and now consolidation, I would box off the upper and lower reaches of the consolidation and wait for a break which might be in either direction. In that situation the break lower to retest the top of the spike has the slightly higher probability.

no, it's the same, it's you that's different. No risk, no emotion, no consequences.

Countertrending and playing reversals is specialised and needs experience because reversals are relatively rare or at least far less common than continuation. After a spike and flag or pennant then continuation was the higher prob outcome and that's what should have been anticipated and reacted to once seen. Trying to second guess the market is a losing game, instead learn to spot when an attempt to reverse fails and is revealed to be just another pullback, 'buy the failed dip' (or sell the failed rally) should be the number 1 strategy in the playbook. I would forget about a screener and leave the illiquid shares alone and just stick to ftse or it's pumped up cousin dax.

Several points to make, see my thread Trade Planning and Testing and look at the prob chart on sequential losing trades, you can't beat the math and your account size can't cope with £20/point trade size, you are practically guaranteed to blow your account. Your stated goal from the beginning was to make a lot of money fast, it all went down hill from there which was inevitable, your goal meant you were practically guaranteed to blow your account. You say above that with hindsight you can see what you should have done, not really. What you should have done was make your first goal survival. Learn to read chart structure and to anticipate and react, not try to predict. And not to just gamble but develop a rule based plan, if this, this and this happen, then I do that. Then test it to make sure it works, then test live on min position size to make sure it works. Demo has not been good to you, you can't have real 'success' on demo, there is no such thing. Demo if misused just encourages gambling but without the consequences, until you go live. The same cycle keeps repeating itself. Once you've used demo to learn the platform keep off it. You tried ftse before and had some success with it but then went chasing all the big movers only to get in late, there's another lesson right there 🙂

BTC looking like it's wanting to re-check support at the recent low 11150. H4 chart;

Starting the day looking for support, Dax below the pivot may find it here at 12392 or further down 70s then 50s. Dow above the pivot but has 2 resistance levels to climb through to get to R1 at 27013. H1 charts;

Hi, see the top of this thread may provide the answer.

Dow already heading towards the highs, Dax has some ground to make up, Ftse trying higher off a solid base. Daily charts;

Everything up except USD and Crypto. Chart USD basket. Carney speaks 11am, EU mon pol accounts 12:30, US CPI and jobs data 1:30pm

Did try on a number of occasions to point out the problems of your method (or lack of) but was very much a case of 'I can already do it, but just this ...' Stick to one market, get to know it well. Have one rules based entry trigger, get to know it well. Same for exit trigger. Gut feelings and fomo were never going to work.

Hi @istevo, see this video linked below on risk management. Essentially the amount of risk on a trade is your stop loss, the size of the stop loss determines your position size as it relates to your predetermined risk appetite. So if you have decided you are comfortable risking X% of your account balance per trade and your stop loss needs to be X number of points then away from your entry then the position size for each trade can be calculated. Amount to risk £100, stop size 20 points; 100 / 20 = 5 so the position size will be £5 per point. Also see 'evolving R'.

This one for all you bears out there, low liquidity since Feb, see chart.

S&P sits just under 3000 and poised to move higher. Daily chart;

Dow retraces 50% back to R1 while Dax sits on S1. Tomorrow may well bring continuation higher lead by Dow. H1 charts;

Strong push after Powell's mon pol statement today, looking ahead to the recent highs of 1439 but due a pause to avoid exhaustion. H4 chart;

Captures the 60 mentioned this morning, may look to consolidate here. H4 chart;