Caseynotes

Resurrecting this thread for an intraday commentary, refer to the Indices thread for the longer term charts. Pre European open and Dow testing the daily pivot with Dax in tow. Dow S1 is at yesterday's low 26300 and the first target for any up move is R1 is 26580. Dax has S1 at 12230 and R1 at yesterday's high at 12330. H1 charts;

Still in bullish mode Dow tested the daily chart support level 26300 yesterday which held so should now see a test of resistance though as seen yesterday corporate earnings jitters can cause lively chart action. Also today at 1:30 pm is the US Advance GDP figure which may also cause a stir. Dax mid way between daily support and resistance and as yesterday will be looking to the Dow for direction. Ftse's had 2 down days following Dow but sights still on the recent high at 7527. Nikkei has held firm overnight and looking poised for a move higher.

Friday's pre-market earnings releases names and charts;

Gold made a strong attempt to get back above 1280 but beaten back, interesting given the current strength of the USD and Oil.

Dax and Dow on their way back up having got over the earnings upset (see post above). Dax back above the pivot and Dow back above S1

Dow, after testing S1 and working it's way back up just took a very sudden dive down to S2 coinciding with the 3M Q1 earnings release miss. Dax heading back down to the pivot in sympathy 😢

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Thursday's pre-market big names and charts.

US durable goods data at 1:30 pm today. Dow and S&P still loitering just under the ATHs losing momentum but not looking too concerned, still waiting for a push. On the H1 Dow working it's way up to the new daily pivot around 26600 and Dax looking up at a first target of yesterday's high at 12350.

So, at end of day Dax found support at R1 while Dow broke down to find support at S1 and in the meantime USD finally broke out of long term consolidation;

Dow failed at 26700 and once again down to retest the pivot on the US open, Dax pulls back down to test R1, see if they hold.

Australian financial regulator ASIC starting to sound a lot like the EU regulator ESMA with regards to high leverage for retail clients, leverage reduction may be on it's way. https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/australian-regulator-worried-about-flash-crash-events-leverage/ "While the focus of the European regulators has been on delivering a plain and simple message that retail clients are losing too much money while trading, the ASIC’s focusing on a specific issue – the structure of markets and “ridiculous leverage”.

Dax makes for R3 while S&P sets up for an assault on the summit;

Gold ready for another leg down? 1 hour;

Looks to be setting up for a push higher on the 1 hour;

Dow slow away having insisted on another test of the pivot while Dax was happily steering for R1 when got a nasty shock from the poor ifo business climate data at 9 am. Looks to be getting back into it's stride again now though.

Not sure which screen Kyle was looking at on the APAC brief but Dow not quite at the ATH. Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time, both sides making noises the final deal is near. Dow currently bouncing up off the daily pivot looking to target R1 at 26750. Dax has just tested S1 and heading back up to the pivot at 12231 with R1 beyond that at 12282. As ever we may see some initial jockeying on market open but the overall trend remains bullish.

S&P closing in on the 'All Time High', still a couple of hours to go before the US market close, bears seem to be hibernating (hiding), difficult to see how this level will remain standing.

Certainly maybe Richard, there should be support around that level if Dax does reverse but I would myself expect continuation upward if the US indices break through to the upside though. Many like to pick and choose, mix and match, indicators, patterns and time frames to suit our bias, you see such posted all the time, but going down that road leads to madness because we will always be able to find many combos that will support whatever bias we have. Looking at the weekly 100 MA, price last week put in a powerful bull bar right to it and with only one day trading this week can't really say it's failed there yet. I can't really see a forming H&S pattern on the daily (see how to post a chart below), and I wouldn't worry about EU consumers as all the Dax companies are big multi-nationals, so I suspect Dax will follow the US indices upward if they break, riding on the back of increasing risk-on sentiment. My charts are MT4 charts, to post IG charts click on the 3 dots (options) tab then 'export chart' and a copy of the on-screen chart will be placed in your download folder (without any personal info).

Gold move down related to today's dollar move up, DXY looking looking to break up out of 6 month consolidation, watch out dollar fx pairs. Daily DXY chart;

Not much standing in the way of 1250 now;

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Dow unable to break the pivot but not really pushing lower either, Dax pushed further down to test S2 where it's currently stalled. Into the afternoon and US open and long term still bullish so looking for support confirmation and on to seek resistance.

Oil heading towards 70.00, has a liking for resting up at round numbers as has been pointed out before. Big recent boost from the US halting the Iran oil export waivers. The Chinese are not happy and may well make waves as they import a lot from Iran, so may not be all plain sailing ahead. Daily chart;

For the longer view see one and two posts above, for today's morning session Dow and Dax on a leg up with Dow just checking at PP and targeting R1 around 26620. Dax first target is 12277 while Ftse needs to clear resistance at 7495 before progression.