Caseynotes

Yes, still looking for support, there was a report out this morning that OPEC may abandon quotas and just go all out for market share.

Dax and Dow out of step this morning, Dow taking a close look at the daily resistance level while Dax hovers over support.

This week;

Interesting shortened week ahead, the weekly Dow matches the S&P and once again staring at the all time highs. On the H4s China taking a dive while the other 3 are up against recent highs. At the European open Dax H1 is currently on a search for support leg down and waiting for the London open.

Quite right, and that's actually a very nice chart, usually the sign of a well managed company. Not the norm unfortunately, most charts look more akin to the outline of a double humped camel. ☹️

All SBs and CFDs and Options are just a type of CFD. SBs are just a tax efficient (UK only) CFD, why do UK punters use SB instead of CFDs when 80% lose therefore there is no actual tax benefit? 90% of options expire worthless though a large percentage are only taken out as a hedge anyway and are expected to expire worthless. Is there actually any real difference between any of them? The real difference is the size of the account. Small account holders can happily chose to use either cfd, sb or options. Large account holders will use cdf on dma with options to hedge, unless they are US based where plain cfd's are banned and they can only use options for speculation and hedge.

(apologies @dmedin for hijacking the thread) @nit2wynit Problem 1. When going live shift down to the lowest position size available so that's £0.50 and look to a market that has low volatility. Position size start low and build up as success and confidence grows, most people do the opposite, start big and down size as their losses mount and confidence collapses at the same rate as their account. With the small bet sizes a loss won't worry you so much and you wont be putting yourself under ever increasing pressure. Problem 2. Good chart reading and good trade execution is everything. They are far more important than technical analysis or identifying patterns or flipping a coin. I'll think of some good educational material to study but first some simple examples. You mentioned gold so lets look at that first (bottom chart). Simple, the bears had taken control of the market yesterday, look at the size of those red candles and the speed of the move down, if you were looking for anything it would be shorts but the market consolidated anyway so stay out. usdjpy 30min, good steady chart, can day trade on or swing trade on it and the stop loss is not too big (expensive). So practice simple chart reading with nothing cluttering up the chart. Learn to identify the different market formations early and when and where the big players have re-entered the market.

@nit2wynit, it's not unfortunate, that's what's supposed to happen, the market is always trying to trap the unwary and inexperienced, why wouldn't it when it's so easy to do. So you're found that the market moves in fits and starts even when the overall progression is one way, why would it do that. A bull trend is made up of big players buying then stop buying, take some profit, let the market fall back a bit then start buying again, they can time it anyway they want. You are seeing the buying, you are waiting a bit just to be sure, then jumping in just as they stop buying. Once you have bought in you are totally dependent on having a big player come in after you and buy the market up and carry you along with it, but your timing/execution is all wrong. Also, you have discovered that demo is not like the real thing at all, the market moves the same but inside your head it's all different. So two problems identified, what to do about it. TO BE CONTINUED

New season, big names for Monday pre-open with some very set up charts to match.

R2 caught and holding, would expect to rest awhile here to reload the order book and see what the US market open has in store. R3 is at 26400.

Let's take a look at oil, surely oil traders know what they're doing. On the chart (bottom pic) after the triple retest of support at 51.40 in mid Feb oil went on a bull run, went side ways late Feb then up again til late March stopped at 60.30 ish. The SSI data shows retail went net short late March, the top was in ... but there were no lower lows, in fact support around 58.25 looked strong. No matter what, the short play was busted by the start of April which funnily enough was when retail really piled in short while long positions stayed flat, this pattern continued to the present. Trying to pick tops, doubling down and then holding onto losers when the chart was really telling you to buy dips all along.

After a 30 min battle at 26188 Dow storms up to 26241 in a single 5 min bar. Important level this, mentioned many times before in above posts, if price can break this level R2 at 26317 is the next target.

Ah @dmedin, I can see where you going wrong there. Too much faith in Technical Analysis, if the markets were scientific it would all just fall apart so relying on scientific tools will inevitably lead to confusion and sorrow. TA is not about rules, not even guidelines really, more just suggested possibilities, which is why you will find people using techniques very differently producing a multitude of signals that are all themselves just equal possibilities. In books and on SM you will see loads of examples of technical patterns working out but I don't think I've ever seen a book on technical patterns not working, don't suppose it would sell very well really. You will find plenty of commentators who have swallowed TA books whole and then regurgitate everything back up onto a fresh chart, all you will see is a godawful mess. Best advice I could give is to stick to Wykcoff and supply and demand, the basic mechanics of a market. Most people prefer SB over options because of the greater level of control, with SB you pay a stop loss which will get you out of a trade as soon as the trade turns against you. But as demonstrated in the SSI thread, 80% don't seem be able to use this basic tool competently.

The H4 charts starting to look a little raggity but hanging on to the bull flags. The Dow hourly is on a up leg so looking for R1 at 26241, looking downward some support likely at the daily pivot around 26150 otherwise it's back down to 26061. On the calendar the Cny trade bal (anytime today ) could cause a stir, EU Indy Prod could cause an upset at 10 am as could US consumer sentiment at 3 pm.

Thank you @Bell, I try to keep it real and not worry to much about bias, if I see price charging up a chart I'll expect it to continue til it stops, I'm sure the chart will tell me when. Though I don't trade large time frame charts the rationale should be the same. If price is going up look for an opportunity to get long, try to stay in for as long as possible, expect continuation even when it approaches a boundary, but cross your fingers, tighten your stop and be ready to bail just in case. I do know some traders who make a living picking tops and bottoms but none of them has less than 10 years experience. The worst thing to do is to allow yourself to be bias lead, you can always find something on a chart to add weight to a hunch no matter how preposterous it might be, which is why I tend to keep away from the media pundits, they can't go on tv and just say "I don't know".

Maybe @RichardSmith, but currently the Nasdaq is zeroing in on it's all time high while 80% of IG clients are short.

Interesting insight into the order book;

Dow still lingering about the recent low 26100 and Dax back in tracking mode. So looking for either a retest of 26100 or a break of the daily pivot 26161 and a push higher with Dax to follow.

Dow looks keen to retest 26100 on the US market open but Dax and Ftse not showing much interest in following H1 charts;

Dow not able to break up through the daily pivot this morning is holding Dax back. H1 charts;

Trump again times trade war threats just as the markets close in on the highs, this time taking aim at the EU who were very quick to threaten stiff retaliation on any US action. Dow looking to build on the base at 26100. UK GDP and manu prod at 9:30, EU rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:45 with presser at 1:30 and last fed mtg minutes at 7:00 pm.

Dow in a bit of a flash crash and drops 150 points after dropping through 26241, may find support here at 26100.

Here is the Dax SSI chart from the post above moved on 1 week and highlights the precision that longs bailed having been buying the whole week from the 20/03 all the way down to the bottom at 11400ish. And that's where the sellers stepped in to start selling all the way back up to 12000. err. Standing back the overall chart is undoubtedly bullish and really retail traders should have only been looking for dips to buy, that's it. A fair majority of those 74% holding shorts must now be well underwater and hoping for a miracle. Institutional traders are looking at this, if they want those short contracts for themselves they may well try a stop run and then buy them all up, if they want long contracts instead then they are just going to run the stops over anyway.

I did see that go through but I've no idea if it would impact on price or not.