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Everything posted by Mercury

  1. Probably due a bearish retrace. I think the breakout is MT bullish so buy the dips.
  2. USDCAD breaking lower after a turn at the LT resistance trend line and NMD. Another down leg towards the lower trend line is indicated if this break low holds.
  3. Potential EURGBP breakout rally may be signalling a period of GBPUSD bearishness after an effective double bottom. Need to see a break above short term resistance and close above to confirm. If this proves true then a fast wave 1 of a wave C would be expected. There is a reasonable channel and PMD at the wave B turn.
  4. Bear move looks set to resume. I as assuming this to be a wave B (brown) in A-B-C (light blue) form at present with a target of circa 10,200 for the end and turn back into the wave C (brown) to conclude the 3-4 (green) retrace at which point I would expect a resumption of the long term bear market until we get suitable levels and circumstances for that mega bull market, but that could yet be a long way off... It is of course possible that the rally was all the wave 4 retrace we are going to get so 2 scenarios remain in play.
  5. Well we all know what happened to Gollum as a result of his obsession... Gold could be making a double top turn just now, far from conclusive but there is a scenario which fits this and on the 1H chart there is NMD and a decent turn. It was worth a speculative Short with very close stop in any case. Meanwhile the buy the dips boys are still locked into their programming, just look at Tesla... And USDJPY traders seem in a hurry to close the price gap and test the LT resistance trend line. While Gold has been bullish, Silver has been much more reluctant. I remain reluctant to buy into this Gold bug crazy until Silver also breaks out, in fact if that happens then Silver is the trade to take rather than gold IMO. Would a Gold/Silver bear phase require a Stocks bullish breakout? Probably but not necessarily. Would a Gold breakout here require a stocks bear move. No but surely in absence of any major disaster scenarios a big breakout/turn in Stocks/USD would be required?
  6. I only do long term swing trading, rarely day trading and only in a full and fast bear market. I enter and exit trades on 1H charts but positioned within longer term charts (typically weekly/monthly and daily/4H). It is known as the 3 screen method as devised by Dr. Alexander Elder (of Trading for a Living fame).
  7. The hour isn't up yet. Need to see a 1H candle close below support. With the European markets now closed it is all about the US.
  8. Didn't even close the gap (only an intra day gap anyway). Price only made the Fib 38% before joining the Dow at lower lows. Dax and Russell following. FTSE100 and Nikkei already there. Only the Tech stuff are hold outs, as one might expect of a tech driven bull market.
  9. After a channel breakout Coffee looks to be in retreat. I think this could be the second leg in an A-B-C relief rally to a wave 4 before another significant leg down. Risky trade but I went Short above the gap with the hope that that gap would at a minimum be closed, thus allowing me to move stops to BE. Now holding to see how far it will run.
  10. As my 2 year old would sing, "zoom, zoom, zoom, we're goin to the Moon. zoom, zoom, zoom, we'll get there very soon!" Lunatics!
  11. Gold and Silver just keep going and going. Bitcoin looks bearish, potentially, unconfirmed as yet. Apple took a tumble. Tesla before that. Facebook too and Netflixs a while ago, now all rallying but is it a relief rally to set up another big bearish move? Hong Kong is decidedly bearish in set up as is the Russell and the FTSE100. Risk off, Risk off Risk off? If it is then I would expect perhaps a short rally on US open to hit key resistance areas before the sell of to begin. Not saying this is a mortal lock, just something to track and be ready for because it it happens it will happen fast a hard...
  12. So UK wages are back at pre "crisis" (ha they will run out of superlatives for the coming storm!) levels. And yet retail is struggling and no one can afford to buy a home. HSBC are the latest mega firm to announce job cuts, I wonder if it has anything to do with rising wages... Of just the fact that banks can't make any money within a ZIRP/NIRP environment... Coronavirus is the blame du jour for missing targets and while the world is going to hell in a handcart a property firm is telling it's staff that they cannot expense meat in meals. Never mind the meek inheriting the Earth now it is the vegans.. "Head of values team"? No wonder these firms can't make any profit! The world has officially gone mad, sell everything! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51499776 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51529207
  13. I quite agree. Even taking a Short on the turn wasn't that compelling, offering only a few 100 points for a high error risk. For me this is about tracking for a trend change turn. Given the length of time and low volatility this trend has exhibited I would not be surprised to see it eek out further whipsaw and lateral movement before the turn occurs and if this coincides with a bear phase for GBPUSD, which is my current bias, then EURGBP may yet be the way to go shorter term for FX traders. However overall I prefer the look of USDCAD for a long term bear market if and when Oil really gets going.
  14. You seem unsure and that is not surprising as this market has yet to reveal itself. My lead scenario is for the bear move to continue to lower lows, a EURUSD has already done. I might expect EURUSD to get a relief rally and to fall less energetically now as it approaches key support and for GBPUSD, if it turns, to fall faster. Therefore EURGBP might be the way to go here. However we may yet see a slightly higher high on GBPUSD and EURGBP has yet to stage a channel breakout. If you look at the Weekly chart on GBPUSD price is in a consolidation triangle. No telling which way this will resolve yet so the best course of action is to wait IMO. Given the points on offer are not huge vs the risk I'd be more likely to wait for EURUSD and GBPUSD, well USD generally, to resolve before seeking a trade other than a scalp, which I am not interested in. EURGBP could offer a longer term move once it breaks.
  15. Don't follow! Why is the Fib 38% the target? I assume you are bear biased and looking for a temporary bullish counter trend rally? But why do you not think this could be a trend reversal? My lead scenario is for a bearish retrace move that tests the previous channel breakout and gap closure before a major motive wave rally.
  16. Updated chart from yesterday. The original supporting trend line still holds but is more of a 4H/1H chart line. There is a better lower channel line on the daily chart and price is just testing this now.
  17. SO Cryptos are breaking out and next stop the moon! Well maybe there is some significant upside potential now that the large consolidation Triangle has indeed been broken with a credible Head & Shoulders pattern at the turn (plus PMD, plus credible A-B-C counter trend retrace EWT labeling). We also have a coincident H&S neckline break and a fast rally away. So far so good. But markets do not move in straight lines and the last big rally surely had a huge retrace bear move. On the current rally price was stopped at 10,500, a credible resistance zone according to the chart price action after a 1-5 wave form. The turn occurred on NMD with RSI and Stochastic coming out of over bought and now price is hovering just above a bullish channel lower line. My take on this is that a counter trend bearish phase is underway that might even get back down to retest the neckline or thereabouts. If we do see a channel breakout then we can perhaps at least look forward to a Fib 50% test, coincident with a one of significant support. Note counter trend moves tend to go in either a simple A-B-C form or a much more complex form with lots of whipsaw price action so they can be treacherous to trade. It is hard to hold for the compete move from here but targeting an initial wave A that might make, say, the Fib 38% might work, after than a sell the rally off the wave B top might be on but this is all speculation at this stage, need to see the moves price action develop. The big opportunity here is to catch the turn back Long after the retrace is done. My personal approach is to Short the break of the lower channel and seek the wave A turn to take profits, leave it alone until I see that wave B and then see of there is another Short, but this may prove tricky and if I miss it OK but then wait patiently for the next rally wave to present itself. Such a wave would be a wave 3, which is absolutely the one you want to catch as it will run and run. This is where I would turn trend follower and hold and buy the dips! Should be an interesting few months perhaps. My view on Bitcoin is that it is a risk on asset not a risk off one. It is currently a speculation on the future but that future has not yet arrived and IMO will not until there is a major financial system catastrophe (including a rampant USD), which I believe is on the cards. If my view on Bitcoin being a risk on asset is right then we could be coming into a risk off period as Bitcoin falls. Stocks are at ATHs and maybe showing a reluctance to jump further and that despite SP500 earnings beating expectations so far (70 odd % of the way through reporting) and US economic data seemingly pulling up... Or maybe that impetus is simply coming t an end. Gold and Silver seem to be catching a bid and USD is also strong. Who knows, maybe the big rally on Bitcoin would coincide with a big turn down elsewhere as the speculation is fueled by the fear of that big catastrophe and Bitcoin being the future... For now, for trading, purely on a technical assessment, the lift off seems to be suspended.
  18. Big move down on the Russell 2000 creating a potential channel line retest failure off suspect retail control group print. Time for another stocks bear?
  19. Probably allied to the Oil move, USDCAD is knocking on the door of a support break after that LT trend line resistance held.
  20. Brent breakout continues. ST target of gap close at $60.
  21. My monthly chart resistance trend line appears to have held on NMD so far and now with Oil potentially breaking into rally this pair could be about to move south big time.