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rimmy2000

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Everything posted by rimmy2000

  1. closed today. position closed and thread can close. on next look out for next stock with a good chunk of cash. total return was 38.7% and a total of £731 in income.
  2. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE GOT THERE IN THE END GUYS. CASH OFFERS SO LOOKS PROMISING. RIMMY2000
  3. dear all, it's been a while. We are now in new highs territory. And the buys are flooding in. Today reached £3 and that target will likely be breached in the next few days, as new highs is often a buying criteria/strategy. An 18,000 share trade for example was recorded today at 16:38. I have been buying on the rise. And the company is still modestly rated. Which, if strategy continues to execute as planned, bodes well. ATB rimmy2000
  4. The only other thing i'll add is that this sells off in the morning, and gets bought in the afternoon. Easy to trade during day if you are into that style. But more importantly, for me it indicates a likelihood of US buying as the US markets open in the afternoon UK time. Crudely indicated below on 15 min intervals.
  5. Struggling to find time to compose posts right now, so anyone following this story consider this post as borrowed news from other sources. NEW CEO in post (with a background in digital at a gaming co) and was head of digital at WMH I believe. The Existing CEO (Bowcock) goes immediately, whihc is not surprising. Summary here: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2019/09/05/news-tips-william-hill-melrose-redrow-more/ "William Hill (WMH) announced that its chief executive Philip Bowcock will step down from the position and as a director of the company from 30 September. Ulrik Bengtsson, previously William Hill's chief digital officer, has been appointed chief executive officer designate and a director of the company with immediate effect, and will assume full chief executive responsibilities once Mr Bowcock steps down. The company stated that this change is part of its succession planning and consistent with the group's strategy of becoming a digitally led and internationally diverse gambling company. Shares fell more than 1 per cent in early trading. Buy." Note: IC also have this tipped as a buy.
  6. yes, could do with some guidance on this, @JamesIG, or someone, as it is starting to cause issues. Chrome now defaults to blocking Flash. Which is annoying, and not everyone uses machines with admin permissions so unable to download alternative browsers. Just tried Opera and Firefox but machine permissions restrict ability to install alternatives.
  7. another US Casino opening a WMH sports book https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/affinity-gamings-lakeside-hotel--casino-announces-opening-of-william-hill-sports-book-300898748.html Market announcement in interims for tomorrow. https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=wmh Anecdotal evidence says the group are now closing shops and tidying up the operation for a US suitor to swoop. Of course the depreciation of GBP will make this a more appealing prospect than before. We wait.. Hope everyone is surviving the turmoil of late.
  8. Hi, A quick note to mention the 2019 Mello Awards are now live for voting. You can view categories and vote at https://forms.gle/uYpMTnfn6hjsdVSy6 (IG are in the running for two categories) Thanks
  9. Hi! Today we are *hopefully* seeing a trend reveral. Currently about 17% up intraday and this time the fundamentals are playing out. Today results were released and you can see the shareholder letter for 2019 Q1 here >> https://s22.q4cdn.com/826641620/files/doc_financials/2019/q1/Q1-2019-Shareholder-Letter.pdf So what have we got: mDAU (monetisable daily average users) eg, real users, not 'bots' up 11% - growing user base. Revenue up 18% Op Mgn 12% and operating income $94m Total US revenue was $432M, an increase of 25%. Total international revenue was $355M Total advertising revenue was $679M, +18%. Y/Y growth accelerated in the US relative to Q4, with ad revenue up 26%. So we are finally getting traction. Currently looking at $30bn valuation. Some sources (not me) are saying $100bn, or three fold increase. Who knows really, but short term this looks to be finally getting noticed. My most recent purchase was to add more on 11 feb at $31. Not huge but increased by what cash I had available. Finally I almost opened a dfb today at $36 but didn't get the price I was after. Never mind. Not much more to say here except keep an eye on the growth story. I continue to hold.
  10. this is really relevant to me, see 15:20 min onwards https://www.piworld.co.uk/2017/01/02/conkers-corner-edward-roskill-interview/ "trying to be really disciplined is very important" "trying to be distinguish between fundamentals and the stock price which can be completely different" 18:00 "prices can behave peculiarly" "price is an irrelevance" https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/18/eldorado-resorts-caesars-explore-merger-sources.html we wait.
  11. It is quite tricky for me to write here in the interim. Obviously hindsight is a wonderful vantage, and looking back I could have sold, taken a chunky profit, then bought back in. But hey-ho, would not have known that at the time. Additionally, this brings up an interesting point that was written about in a Jesse Livermore book I am slowly reading. And that being that we must, must, consider that one aspect of our trading, or one dimension of our trading (as JL calls it) is time. Time is the dimension that allows us to consider Opportunity Cost: what am I foregoing by holding this position. I am holding out for the consolidation but this may take months or even years to realise. And in that time there are other shares ticking along that I cannot be invested in because of the holding here. This is an important lesson to bear in mind. But we have had signs that industry consolidation is ongoing, (driven even more so by regulatory changes in the UK that will exacerbate this, imo) WMH bought a smaller european company called Mr Green* which it is using to broaden their reach further. So we know the industry is still fragmented and the economies are coming by buying up and achieving synergies through overhead reductions. *never heard of them before! Ladbrokes went through a similar 'pit of dispair' before it was bought by Coral, the price continued to slide until it got opportunistically cheap and was pounced on. I expect something like this will still be the end game for WMH - the CEO mentioned it himself(!) although I expect given the changes in the US then the suitor may be from the US. We have had a trading update today which I need to digest, and also today sees a Capital Markets day which will inform the city of its plans https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/capital-markets-day/201811060700134151G/ and its three priorities: · Driving digital growth in the UK and internationally; · Growing a business of scale in the US; and · Remodelling UK Retail. We continue to wait, and in the meantime we receive dividends "As previously stated, the Group's dividend policy is to pay out c50% of underlying earnings and as communicated at the 2018 half-year results the Board is committed that, for 2018, this will be calculated excluding US Expansion."
  12. yes, that would have been worth buying into, ahead of results. Seen similar with BT today, when you get a few profit warnings in a row the marked revises down its estimates, and eventually you get a beat/ahead of expectations ? personally I just ignore these in my portfolio as they are medium term holding, but starting to get traction back.
  13. I think it was an earnings beat. WIll have to come abck with more info, (unless anyone else can kindly summarize?) Up 13% IN A DOWN MARKET
  14. Yes its a fairly humdrum company and I suppose diversification could help, or indeed it could fit as part of a portfolio for a wider group. I definitely think it is a safe bet, albeit boring, but should be fine over time. And pays a decent dividend in the meantime. Perfect for a SIPP or somewhere for a long term hold, imo.
  15. 11 Oct TU was inline. https://www.investegate.co.uk/norcros-plc--nxr-/rns/trading-update/201810110700056598D/ Clearly a boring co, so no excitement here, but I continue to hold. Yield 4%+, PE less than 7, "Group revenue for the first half is expected to be approximately £162.5m (2017: £145.0m), 12.1% higher than the prior year on a reported basis," growth coming from acquisitions but the strategy is cross-selling so happy wit The attempts to break out earlier have failed but who knows in the short term. Continue to hold
  16. Profit taking I think. Markets a bit wobbly and people turning to cash? highly rated share, so risk is high at these levels, imo.
  17. CFO buy £100k @£2.57p https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/william-hill-WMH/share-news/William-Hill-PLC-Director-PDMR-Shareholding/78197680 Nature of the transaction Purchase of shares by Director (inclusive of aggregated purchases by connected persons) ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ c) Price(s) and volume(s) -------------------- ---------------------- Price(s) Volume(s) -------------------- ---------------------- GBP2.5766 per 38,998 ordinary share shares
  18. For anyone who trades exclusively off a chart, seems to be in a channel and hit the bottom this week, which coincided with the 23.6% fib line and point of prior support.. back into 300p+ ?
  19. More news today from WMH. https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/us-partnership-with-eldorado-resorts/201809050700137733Z/ 'US partnership with Eldorado Resorts' Extends William Hill US' leadership in sports betting through access to Eldorado's leading regional casino portfolio and customer base of 23 million people William Hill becomes Eldorado's exclusive partner in provision of digital and land-based sports betting and online gaming Let's look at some quick and dirty numbers: WMH currently trades from 2 US sites revenue of £56.5m GBP (or 3% of annual turnover) So we already know the US contributes from a very small base to WMH revenues. This means there is easy scope to grow. The agreement opens up WMH for 11 further states using Eldorado partnership: "extensive market access of Eldorado - a major casino group with 21 properties across 11 states and a customer base of 23 million people." Assume the other sites achieve 70% of the revenue incurred at current sites, and the division of revenue currently is an even split (eg £56m/2) Work out potential across 11 states. Add to existing. Here is a table I knocked up quickly:
  20. up 5% today, forming another base, took a small spread position at 3180 on the drop 30-July, closed for 244 points today. other positions held. Would have bought more on that drop but no funds
  21. There is not much to add here. Just waiting for the trade to play out. Meanwhile there is a research paper here with $52 target based on multiple of 2019 EV/EBITDA https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/TWTR-Just-Made-the-Turn-and-Is-Hitting-Stride.pdf Seems reasonable, Citron have apparently called Twitter correct twice in the past, and I agree the drop based on the slight miss is unwarranted. Still have all my shares and initiated a long S/B on Mon 30th July.
  22. Thanks for the posts guys. Yes, half year results out today >> https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/half-year-results/201808030700027073W/ Price is down about 7% as I speak, so not well digested by the market. For me this is simply a case of loking at the original rationale, to see what has changed. My reasons to buy were a) reliable and steady dividend. this is still being paid : no inc or dec. but 4.26p for the HY. b) likelihood of consolidation. I think this remains in tact, and even more so with the US opening up gambling laws. So on the face of it, it can be seen a s a failure but I believe the two rationale will continue. Dividends will persist and we will eventually see a takeover. £882m was written off as impairment against the Triennial review and impact on retail betting outlets, debt is low and the statements always focus on this, so the business is in reasonable shape. - this is the bit which the FT have jumped on as per @Caseynotes post above. We expected a good result from the world cup and this is confirmed in the narrative: "Group net revenue in H1 2018 was up 3% to £802.6m, including US expansion net revenue of £0.6m. Gross win from the World Cup was £11.0m in H1 and £32.8m for the tournament as a whole" Obviously a more positive result would have been preferable but this is not a disaster, e continue to hold.
  23. yeah its not the obvious play, but I just think the platform is very entrenched in society now, and the market is not viewing the business in this context. So many examples of news reports being based upon tweets, I see FB as something that will wax and wane (we already know the demographic has changed skewed towards older users, and no longer fashionable by youth standard) but TWTR is offering something patently different, and succeeding in cementing its position as the news outlet. I was on the earnings call and one interesting question was around the clean up of accounts, and how this may affect advertisers. The response was that advertisers are supportive of the account clean up exercise because it means their ads are getting to real users. Its just a buy and hold for me. No stops set, cofortably in profit and no top slicing.. No trouble sleeping at night when holding this one !
  24. sad face ? I noted a couple of downgrades namely around the slow MAU growth on the platform and the increased capex for health initiatives (eg removing bots etc) Morgan STanley I believe reduced target from $50 to $45 but re-iterate buy. My stance is the same. Continue to hold.
  25. $TWTR stuff from press release and SEC filing: Q2 revenue totaled $711 million, an increase of 24% year-over-year, or an increase of 27% year-over-year Advertising revenue totaled $601 million, an increase of 23% year-over-year. US revenue totaled $367 million, an increase of 10% year-over-year. International revenue totaled $344 million, an increase of 44% year-over-year. Average international MAUs were 267 million for Q2, compared to 258 million in the same period Average daily active users (DAU) increased 11% year-over-year, compared to 10% year-over-year growth in Q1, TWTR IR feed here: down -15% in pre market
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