HMB

interesting divergence between recent AAII survey and Citi euphoria/panic model...:

FT story on Thursday already pointed out that the Softbank Whale trades most likely got dwarfed by aggregate retail activity. And freely available OCC volume data can't really confirm that either would have put significant pressure on dealers - in August customers' buys and sells seem to have offset each other nicely (and volume far lower for both "firm" and dealer accounts). however data is far too aggregated to make such conclusions with confidence, I guess, and September data may reveal more. more interesting maybe the difference between August 2019 and 2020 call volume - pointing to increased divergence in views between "customers"..?

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done." Jesse Livermore, How to Trade In Stocks, Chapter 1, The Challenge of Speculation

Agree. Thank you very much indeed for your advice - I'm learning loads here in these forums thanks to helpful people like yourself. And the opportunity to communicate is itself a great tool to become better aware of and deal with "improvement potential" (not to say mental issues - but I meant that quite neutral).

dmedin, Caseynotes: surely you remember Petty Officer Billy Sunday's (DeNiro, Men of Honor) advice on drinking: "A Chief Petty Officer shall not drink. However, if he should drink he shall not get drunk. If he should get drunk, he shall not stagger. And if he should stagger, he shall not fall. And if he should fall, he will fall in such a manner as to cover up his rank so that passerbyers will think he is an officer." I think using that as a template I can reconcile your differing advice with my own perspective and start a set of trading rules: 1. A trader shall not trade. 2. However, if he should trade, he shall trade only with a back-, demo- and mini-size tested technical rule-based system. 3. If he should trade without a back-, demo- and mini-size tested technical rule-based system, he shall be mentally well prepared to lose.... ;

I agree on the gambling addiction part. highly respecting your courage stating that clearly - thanks. seeking professional help - I have some experience with that: giving up was not the advice I got there, but maybe that would change after additional counseling. For the reasons described, I don't believe a rule-based system is the way out for me. Fixing mental issues to be able to stick to a risk management plan is.

Okay. However I don't want to trade with a technical rules-based system as you define it. It's not were I see myself ever getting an edge. I won't be able to successfully force myself to try something I am convinced I will not succeed in. This is for others. I got different strengths - however for now I must continue to focus on fixing the weaknesses.

..in a broad sense, including lifestyle adjustments etc.

I'm not a purely technical trader. I don't have the skill set to develop a rule based system. And I want to try something else. I still have confidence in my trade ideas - but I horribly mess up the execution and don't stick to my risk management plan. Due to lack of effective emotion management. Which I have to solve with mental preparation.

Well, someone's gotta have the money formerly owned by me...

good point...

Many thanks Andrew, I will review the thread. Your trading plan makes sense to me - I think something similar can work for me as well. Much appreciated

Loss limits, rules, a rule-based system work when you apply them/adhere to them. My problem is I don't. To fix that I need to focus more on mental preparation. I had a few months when it worked. I sticked to my limits. The reason I did was, because I had prepared mentally for encountering losses and when they came I was prepared for corresponding emotions and was able to call it a day. What I had not prepared so well for, was to make some gains surprisingly fast, and then loose them by making a stupid mistake. It feels different. That may sound funny, but it's the best explanation I can come up with for why I wasn't able to stick to my loss limit today. Conclusion is I need to be more comprehensive, more creative in my mental preparation - also imagine scenarios where I loose gains I just made, which mean a lot to me because my performance was so poor and I'm craving for a success experience, and then I take this way from me with a stupid error. I need to be able to stop then, too.

I agree. it's probably worth scheduling a fixed two hour time slot or so, even if that avoids missing some opportunities - what do you think?

I'll take a break - two weeks minimum, to mentally stabilize.

There is a trading psychologist Steve Ira phrases it like this: you must deeply, emotionally accept losses. Now what I see more clearly today than before, is that this requires me every time, to take time to consciously mentally prepare for losses before even looking at the screen. In my case, not being mentally prepared for losses leads to trying to make them back immediately when they happen, which leads to large size trades with tightest stops, which come with highest probability of failure - and eventually send me into an account -burning spiral.

In general waiting protects you, I would say.

this would probably help to avoid reacting too quickly, yes.

That's probably a good attitude to have.

ok, that's it. went short NDX after open, made 50 quid, then lost it by going long with weak support - didn't take a break to think but tried to make it back immediately with larger bets with nano stop distances - like out of my mind - took minutes to reduce my account from 300 to 13. then one last short, stop hit, account size moved to 0.01. incredibly tempted to refund. but will at least avoid that. guess I need an emergency break. another instant of the same lesson I just won't learn: avoid trading in a state of complete mental unpreparedness..! you probably won't hear from me for a while.

stop hit. staying out for now.

btw - probably nothing, but if I was a US broker, I'd reluctantly let the market fall today as a matter of principle if I don't have to.. 13 years when it was a weekday - 3 days close below the open. open to close up half a percent on average

ok

...you guys talked me into it...!

admittedly not the most thought-through trade... but minimum size (less than 12 quid max loss)