HMB

note the 195 at 15:50:00...:

(guess NDX pain trade would be back above 11350...)

I'm bullish for now till cash close...

hope not

ok, makes sense now

got it, I think

...sorry, think I misunderstood, you said "turns" - so I guess for an oscillating market, right..?

..ok, on a higher level - you're trying to catch breakouts early..?

is this a strategy for trending markets?

congrats.

...consumer confidence leaked...?

...yes, I looked elsewhere at the COT history since end 1999 - nothing even close to that (neither if you include the standard futures, not only the E-minis). in the older CFTC classification (commercial vs. non-commercial) you see the non-commercial (i.e. speculative) positioning is the 2nd most net short ever - zerohedge has been reporting about that for some time ...good point on the volume! is that from the exchange? on IG spreadbetting it looks different at that time were the rumors about dealers (un-)hedging options from Softbank and retail traders caused the action... which OCC data couldn't confirm (see post a while ago) - because dealers' aggregate net volume wasn't that large - it was all in the "Customer" category. ...trying to make sense of these two developments together... the Other Reportable position is as of 22nd and was built up over four weeks... so the initial trades could have contributed to the selloff - maybe later the desks in charge of it improved the execution and it slowed down... still struggling what that could mean for the near future... tend to agree with your point, that unwind of that position would be a nice way to engineer a rally... would be quite expensive, though, unless the silently within the boundaries of ineffective laws colluding Wall Street guys get the market to drop first (by triggering all kinds of signals for retail traders and Algos to jump on - think I've heard the 50-day MA is quite popular these days..., (and Morgan Stanley sees a test of the 200 day MA as possible if I remember correctly...) ... still more questions than "answers" I mean hypotheses..

could be - I would be a bit surprised though, because if ETFs were considered in this category ("Other Reportable"), I would have expected larger numbers earlier as well (below chart with longer history)

Think I know what you mean - of course, if you compare a combination of two trades with a notional exposure of e.g. 10000 each with one trade with a notional exposure of 10000, you may lose more with the combination than with the single trade. I should have stressed this more clearly - thanks for highlighting this.

That was part of the idea of this "convergence trade". Both tanked on Monday 21, but then Nikkei 225 more than fully recovered, while Dax did not (see picture above). Not being aware of a reason that seemed (IMHO) strong enough to justify the extent of the difference in behavior of these recently more similarly moving indices, I positioned for the relative differences of Dax and Nikkei levels to their respective Monday opening levels to converge (in other words, I bet on their rate of returns since that day to approach a more similar value). One could also say at that stage I considered the relative value of the Dax with respect to the Nikkei 225 as higher than the prices indicated. The high correlation between the two instruments, if it persists, should cause such a trade to have lower risk than a directional position in either of these indices, because you are hedged against factors that impact both markets similarly. Of course this doesn't come for free, but as you seem to have in mind, you're also not profiting when both markets move in the same direction - have I understood you correctly?

closed at 12817.4 - need a break...

...think we've seen the obligatory opening reaction to yesterday's move...;

closed at 11370.5

...a lot of indecisiveness around 11350 yesterday (which also had not held pre-market)... then strong up candle (15 min) into the cash close... a bit back into ETFs after recent outflows..?... doesn't look like the overnight rise can be considered as particularly sustainable IMHO.. Dax and NKY futures also off the highs... expecting NDX (future) to approach 11350 soon again..:

stop on short NKY was hit quickly. closed EURJPY and Dax soon after for a small aggregate profit. didn't expect Dax to extend gains that much today. was unfortunately far too early, as it turned out. guess with one leg closed so quickly I thought better safe than sorry, or just got nervous. another one to learn from..

thanks dmedin anyone knows what happened here...: ? if I'm not completely mistaken, this is a net short of almost 43b USD notional - probably largest ever, solely in a category that usually doesn't seem to matter at all (corporate treasuries, central banks, small banks...) (aggregate hedge funds and insdt. asset managers both long...) http://quiktweet.com/105059 is Softbank in that category..?

short with (dangerously) tight stop - if stop not hit before, review around 11100. betting on NDX being pulled down a bit by expected retracement of Dax overnight move, plus upper end of recent range should provide some resistance. (positioned on global equity indices breakout with other trades so this bet on the range holding should have at least some hedging quality (ultra-)short-term - although with the tight stop it's better described as a pretty high-loss-probability gamble...)

Long Dax, Short NKY, Long EURJPY. Stops beyond recent lows/high on 1 hour charts (see picture). Betting on (temporary) reversal of recent divergence (Dax near lower end of range, NKY near upper end; this divergence between major exporters performance in spite of weakened EURJPY does not seem sustainable. Bet is simultaneously also on global markets breakout out of recent ranges in either direction. JPY weakened previous weak (reversing) - may indicate that reallocation of Japanese investors' from global to domestic stocks (if any..), which could have contributed to relative NKY strength, may have peaked before (of course unless they were mostly FX-hedged). Japan's Covid advantage may have played a major role as well in establishing the divergence, so have most likely BoJ ETF purchases. The former should by now be "priced in" - unless Europe Covid situations worsens drastically (relative Dax overnight outperformance may confirm this). Would expect BoJ to at least not cause itself a significant breakout of NKY to the upside, and instead keep some powder at these levels. Timing probably not ideal after strong DAX overnight move, guess (some) retracement before/at cash open likely, however also risky to have a one-directional trade open until then, hence rather Dax stop relatively wide. Rising EURJPY would be strong factor justifying further NKY outperformance - hence long to reduce risk. Ideally trade should run for a bit, however review after US open (if not stopped out..).

Is that a trick question..? I'm trying to have a broad picture. And to consider (and develop an understanding of) as many influences on prices as I can.

good point - still relatively strong JPY seems to confirm this obviously can't explain previous week's rising NKY while JPY was weakening (vs USD) - could be increase in speculative USD (dip) buying dominating the JPY demand by Japanese investors reallocating to more domestic shares, or BoJ increasing ETF purchases once said reallocation seemed to slow..