HMB

short at 10951.3, guaranteed stop at 11325 (demo account only)

closed. definitely doesn't look like the rebound I was expecting. don't really have much to hold against Mike Wilson's warning..

long NDX in the demo account (posting this here to give it some more emotional commitment...), stop 10625. some NDX rebound would have been due today without the leak, I guess... not least due to futures stabilizing after Friday cash close, and strength of recent oscillation pattern... market being surprised that banks profit from money laundering, sure... probably more surprised they got caught again... if anything... (plus no banks in NDX) alternative narrative - for everyone bored by China virus conspiracy theories...: facts: - lenders (incl. JPM) tightened standards during crisis - see e.g. WSJ May 25th - mainstream lending facility still has only used 0.3% of capacity (recent Powell statement) - leak of money laundering records came from FinCEN, a US Treasury unit conspiracy theory: Treasury unhappy with banks' lending reluctance plans to take banks under control - explicitly or implicitly - to boost lending activity. more advanced conspiracy theory: Treasury plans to take banks under control to boost lending activity - to an extent that eventually makes MMT/MP3 seem unnecessary, at which point banks get privatized again... motivator are of course the banks themselves who profit massively from Fed asset purchases, and are scared of losing said profits if the Fed would start lending to Treasury directly under MMT-motivated MP3... let me know what you think ... this is not investment advice..

stop hit - now much lower, no signal..

interesting that Schlossberg points to discipline and flexibility - which at first "sight" sounds like a trade-off

maybe nothing, but CME open interest heatmap for NDX options expiring today plus recent NDX range suggest action around 11150 to me - looking forward to see how this actually plays out.

thanks - will keep following these indicators in your posts

okay - yes of course, reading your first sentence again... in other words each line is a (weighted) average of moving averages very interesting, good way to summarize fx performance imho - should make it easier to identify e.g. if a EURUSD rise is due to EUR strength or USD weakness, to give a simple example... am I understanding this roughly correctly..?

Thank you! "single line representation of the multi time frame moving averages of each currency" - base = USD for each? ...think I get it - "correlations" in the sense that the shown moving averages may indicate (changes in) correlations... (sorry, I got confused a bit - when I read correlations I was expecting something like the table below)

sorry, I may have missed it, but I couldn't find what you mean with these in the thread - would you mind explaining, please?

guess this worked nicely for NDX recently..? if you assumed at the Wednesday overnight low last week that the range is established, you had two full round-trips - four times 650 points or so..?

used to be (not sued)

obviously not a representative sample... still interesting... read somewhere odd lot short sales sued to be a popular counter-indicator...:

Cipralex, Lamictal, Cialis (5 mg), the occasional Xanax and a vitamin B complex. Why?

yes, phrased like that it more accurately captures the narrative - however should one not still have questioned that immediately? because - what would have been a realistic expectation of what the Fed could have done, Powell could have said yesterday? Rates at zero, they are already buying high yield bonds etc., just had confirmed the move to AIT in virtual Jackson Hole. What could they have added at this stage? And hence, which expectations exactly were so strongly disappointed to justify a roughly 66 points lower SPX overnight low? After already around 27 points drop between pc and cash close? ...were expectations maybe for more buying on the longer end..? think that this likely wasn't the only major factor. maybe also still pressure from outstanding calls approaching expiry, for example (that wouldn't explain a rebound today really, though..) I'm trying to become more careful with the common narratives flowing around.

today better than yesterday with the 10 second chart.... probably helps that there are no news... ..feeling close to finding the hidden Markov chain...!!

...rebound since Europe cash open probably confirms that this narrative didn't make sense and one should have stayed away because something else is going on... so what was it - short build ups with stops that now get hunted...? ...or WS was establishing lower entry levels to now buy on larger scale...?

thank you, will have a look at it.

I do not at all disagree with you.. for me personally shorter time frames definitely proved to be more dangerous. The reasons are probably that one gets more signals, there is more action, you might have a few successful minutes... so more stimuli for your brain - and also more frequent frustrating moments. I'm feeling this also in demo - which I really started using only a few days ago - to a surprisingly similar extent as before in live - that changed my view about demo trading quite a bit. So using this now not only to test a trading strategy (that might turn out to be futile) but also to practice being aware of "emotional signals" and considering more consciously to act on them or not in each case (and using shorter intervals simply gives more practice opportunities)

it worked for me a times, but much more often it did not and ended badly. currently trying in demo to identify typical setups with the approach having a relatively high success probability - I might not find any..

thanks - interesting - 23.6 looks very relevant..

support and Monday/Tuesday overnight low

...never catch a falling knife, stay out of bottom fishing... don't trade while Powell talks... don't trade against medium-term view...

stop hit

lowering stop to 11315