HMB

...I'd thought you'd go for an infinite loop of "Wall Street Shuffle"...

yes. those were likely the more profitable positions that may in part have been liquidated relatively early. Roberts reads it as a warning. haven't followed this number really - can't say if it can indicate anything with any probability. also seems to be a month end chart not covering September... would be interesting to see if recent tech sell-off was in part due to new short build-up. interesting the divergence with recent CFTC data showing hedge funds increased NDX shorts recent months (with a bit of a reduction more recent weeks) ...so maybe not as clear a warning... still one to keep in mind I'd say

Source: Lance Roberts (Real Investment Advice) on Twitter

usually listening to Bloomberg TV..

..think Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) recently pointed to increase in US operational leverage... (bullish) - applicable globally..?

Schaeffler, MAN, Conti (today) all recently announced job/cuts... DAX new ATH soon...?

...I feel I get very useful advice from both of you - and appreciate the different perspectives, many thanks. makes me think a lot. usually I come to the conclusion that I don't know anything... which is probably exactly the attitude I should have at this stage (or maybe forever)

thanks dmedin - I get your point. I have mostly traded on "perceived" signals on 1 min charts - but most turned out to be hallucinations... there were a few days when this worked surprisingly well, but could be that this was just randomness. maybe using that time frame was a actually core mistake. I must admit the youtube videos seen recently with people who watch price ladders/orderbook impress me - maybe that's another trap I fell in the temptation of shorter time frames is that one might "identify" (maybe hallucinating...) nearer r/s levels, allowing using a tighter stop. but possibly it's exactly that what others take advantage of. am currently in sim mode, so might try it out a bit longer risk-free for various reasons - but think you're advice - while not what I would like to hear - is very probably correct

looks to me like what on my platform (IG spread betting) is called "price level", is called "order level" on your platform. in the order type field - can you select "stop"?

makes sense. cci sounds interesting - as it includes SD will make checking these oscillators for various time frames a more explicit part of trade preparation

thanks - think you're definitely right regarding better (unconditional) probability when trading in the the longer-term trend direction (after pullbacks/rebounds) (not much experience with stochastic, will give it a closer look)

Thank you. Think I am already. You mean other time frames are better? why?

yes, could have as well been trading on that sell signal

...finally got the meaning of "mean reversion"... note to self: anticipate meanness at all meaningful levels...

mean... previous 1m R taken out, then just through next round level (13250), and immediately some stop hunters take profit...

aka buy stop order... https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/buystoporder.asp click order, enter the price level at which you wanna buy (once reached), click the green button try it in a demo account

think you mean a stop buy order

Well, I wouldn't say that - without meaning to endorse the way you do it, but I think you're at least providing challenge in this community, quite effectively ensuring that it doesn't become an echo chamber. You also seem honest. That's not meant as general approval, but in principle those qualities are crucial for discussion IMHO. Recall Bridgewater's emphasis on "thoughtful disagreement". (it's not up to me here to start a lecture about my own precise understanding of "thoughtful").

Obviously I haven't found a way that worked for me to solve this, yet, - but over the last few days started trying two things, which so far seem to help me, personally: - allocate a percentage of the time one spend's on the markets to something else that seems very difficult to achieve - e.g. learning Japanese or Python or stochastic calculus, or write a novel or a screenplay - look at trading as a sport, a hobby, a form of entertainment, not a way to earn a living (but maybe you're doing similar things already - apologies for the bother, if)

And why do you continue now?

considering this.

good points

thanks - will check it out

Thanks a lot - think the high level trading plan template shown at the beginning is very useful. In particular for an approach focused on price/volume action, for which it's harder (IMHO) to precisely specify criteria than for strategies which use certain oscillator levels or moving average crossovers. Personally I would define "what needs to change" broadly - in the sense that significant time having passed without apparent change might tell you something as well - I think that's a general point oscillators and moving average crossovers can miss at times (see examples on longer time frames below). Also like how he uses some "softer" (less easy to quantify/formulate) characteristics (e.g. pick up in velocity, target zones instead of levels, action around significant prices), classifies what's going on ("liquidation move") and kinda builds a narrative around the price action. The "mental rotation" point is great as well. Must agree with dmedin regarding the the title of the video, though...

HFs had already reduced their shorts till Tuesday...: http://quiktweet.com/102420