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CharlotteIG

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  1. CharlotteIG

    Dividend Adjustments for 4-Jan to 11-Jan

    By CharlotteIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4th Jan 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.



    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. CharlotteIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 6 April 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     
                                                                   
     
    Please note there are no special divs.
     
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. CharlotteIG
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 16 Dec 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.

    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  4. CharlotteIG
    During the US Thanksgiving holiday, we will be making some changes to our usual trading hours. These adjustments will take place between Wednesday 27 November and Friday 29 November 2019, after which we’ll go back to normal trading hours.  (All times below are GMT).

    Wednesday 27 November Usual closing times on US markets, US equities post-market open as normal.  

    Thursday 28 November US equity markets will be closed. 
    US index futures close early at 6pm. We will make an out-of-hours price on Wall Street, US 500 and US Tech 100 until futures re-open at 11pm. 
    The Volatility Index closes early at 4.30pm. 
    US Crude closes at 6pm, Brent Crude closes at 6.30pm.  
    The US 30-Day Fed Funds Rate and the US Dollar Basket close at 6pm. 
    Metals, including Gold and Silver, close at 6pm. 
    US soft commodities will be closed. London Sugar No.5 closes early at 5pm. 
    Friday 29 November US equity markets will close early at 6pm. There will be no pre or post-market trading. 
    US index futures and the Volatility Index will close early at 6.15pm. We will make an out-of-hours price on Wall Street, US 500 and US Tech 100 until 9pm. 
    US Crude closes at 6.45pm, Brent Crude closes at 7pm.   
    The US 30-Day Fed Funds Rate and the US Dollar Basket close at 6.15pm.   
    Metals, including Gold and Silver, close at 6.45pm.   
    Cotton opens late at 1pm. Chicago Wheat opens late at 2.30pm. US soft commodities (except New York No.11 Sugar) will close early at 6pm. Lumber trades 3-6pm, Live Cattle trades 2-6.15pm.  
    The futures desk and all 24-hour indices close at 9pm, FX closes at 10pm. 
     
    Let me know if you need clarification on this. 
     
  5. CharlotteIG
    Dividend Adjustments 18 May - 25 May
    Expected index adjustments 
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18th May 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     

                                                                                         
    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a 
    cash neutral adjustment on your account.
    Special Dividends:
          
    How do dividend adjustments work? 
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. CharlotteIG
    We're offering weekly equity options on the platform for some stocks over earning season. Meaning you don't have to call us if you want to trade certain equity options. This week it's Apple, Boeing and Facebook. We're also offering Tesla but that will stay on the platform going forward whereas the weekly options will change depending on which week of earnings season we're in. 
     
    What is an Equity option?
    Equity options are a form of derivative used exclusively to trade shares as the underlying asset.
    In essence, equity options work in an extremely similar way to other options, such as forex or commodities. They offer the trader the right, but not the obligation, to purchase (or sell) a set amount of shares at a certain level (referred to as the ‘strike price’) before it expires. To buy an option, traders will pay a premium.
    When are these available to trade?
    These equity options will be available in the main session (14:30 - 21:00 UK time). 
    Where to find them?
    You can find them under 'Weekly US Equity options' on the left list on your web platform. 

     
    Earning season information for this month: 

  7. CharlotteIG
    Trading hours over the US Thanksgiving period

    There’ll be some changes to our normal opening hours over the US Thanksgiving period. Check the table below to find out how they could impact your trading. Note that all times listed below are UK time.



    These hours are accurate to the best of our knowledge, but it’s possible that they could change.


  8. CharlotteIG
    Election special - weekly report
    by Monte Safieddine @Monte_IG

    We’ve been here before, polls that show one side enjoying a sizeable lead And while 2020 may have felt like more than a decade, the 2016 surprise is still relatively fresh in the minds of those wondering which party will control which of the three There have been plenty of polls done by countless organizations, but thus far most show a comfortable lead for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, and for the Democratic party to retain control of the House of Representatives by an even healthier majority Furthermore, the percentage drop in the number of undecided voters since 2016 combined with the surge in early voting (more than half of 2016 ’s total) has locked in votes
    ahead of time, giving candidates a smaller chance to sway what few undecided voters remain, and if polls are correct would make it harder for Republicans to claw back lost territory and close the gap.
    The Senate where Republicans currently enjoy a majority show a handful of the 35 seats up for grabs as too close to call, making it difficult to rule out a 50 50 scenario that’ll require the Vice President to break the tie, meaning under that scenario whichever party controls the White House will also control the Senate.

    With any major fundamental event (think US Non Farm Payrolls or a central bank announcement), sizeable moves are the norm Short term risk taking might be limited prior, plenty may opt to stand on the sidelines waiting out the unknowns and re enter once the dust has settled, and fund managers worried over risk parameters getting triggered may reposition accordingly. Those that have built up decent market beating returns in what has been a volatile 2020 may choose to avoid risking denting their records for the year with only two months to go, avoiding what may be a chaotic few days that hopefully won’t extend into longer than that Furthermore, market makers that under normal circumstances would provide liquidity to the market may
    choose to withdraw to avoid a trend move opposite and get stuck in an illiquid environment (contracts between market makers and the exchanges where the latter pay the former to provide the market with liquidity can include clauses for market makers to withdraw liquidity in the face of fundamental events, and the US elections would easily fall within that category).
    The net result? Levels where orders would normally be resting that would cause prices to face resistance are at far greater risk of breaking, and with little volume resting in the market at price levels would make it far easier to kick prices in one direction or another Daily, weekly, and monthly pivot points would be at risk Lots of noise, trendless volatile moves, and false signals getting triggered come as no surprise. Technicals and sentiment usually hold less relevance in these scenarios, though they have been included in this report with the technical overview ‘ owing to the likelihood that levels historically have been at far greater risk of breaking and triggering smaller stop losses, even if prices eventually reversed and offered a trend move in favor of its technical overview pre event Sentiment analysis may show periods where majority bias outperforms and scenarios where the minority reaps big rewards, but under major fundamental events the results are far less conclusive Should election results be sorted swiftly with a clean, peaceful transition, and plenty will re emerge to position in the financial markets, allowing for moves thereafter to ‘ more easily.
    The stage may be set for the potential for increased volatility, though that doesn’t always guarantee that conformist breakout strategies in the current environment will outperform indefinitely and across all asset classes Last time around in 2016 the conclusion shocked the markets with few expecting the results to veer from the polls, and this time around a victory for either camp wouldn’t come as a significant surprise even with the margins widened between the presidential candidates It would also mean that if markets have priced for a ‘Blue Wave’ victory, further momentum in that favor beyond what is already priced in may be met with resistance. 
    Monetary and Fiscal Policy The contrast between the two political parties isn’t just on what they’ll be spending on, but on the size of any fiscal stimulus package, with Democrats in Congress proposing higher numbers than that of the Republican White House, which in turn is at odds with the Republican Senate that has been pushing for a smaller amount That has meant market expectations of a Blue Wave where the Democratic party controls all three would result in the biggest fiscal stimulus packages A Red Wave would also introduce fiscal stimulus, though expected to be of a smaller size, while mixed control would make it difficult to get any further fiscal stimulus passed, especially if of a larger size On the monetary front, while Trump has made clear his dislike for Federal Reserve ( Chairman Powell, his rhetoric has changed as of late given recent central bank easing and promises A Biden win would likely result in less pressure on the Fed to reduce rates and introduce further easing, and highly unlikely he’d openly advocate for negative rates as the incumbent has But overall, we’re assuming this is a case where policymakers have created a situation they can control, giving them multiple options in dealing with it The coronavirus clearly is one of being forced upon them, narrowing options regardless of who’s at the helm.
    Taxes, Regulation, Defense A rise in taxes (on the wealthy and corporations), increased regulation, and a dent in defense spending are common themes for Democrats when compared to Republican policies, and that’s expected to remain the case when considering a Trump vs Biden win Increased taxes and regulation are an obvious dent to company earnings and growth, while long term growth prospects are usually improved with fiscal restraint As for defense spending, even if it drops for the US government under a blue win as well as for its allies if there’s less US (i e Trump) pressure on NATO countries to increase spending, it may not translate into a drop globally given the plethora of conflicts emerging and ongoing, and may increase as some governments get more desperate.
    Oil: The energy commodity has had a lot to contend with this year, the pandemic briefly sending its price into negative territory as transportation demand plummeted and
    lockdowns went into effect Its managed to recover partially since, but rising coronavirus cases forcing governments into increasing curbs and reinstituting lockdowns has tested it once more A fall in prices due to a shock from a plummet in demand or an oil price war (arranged or otherwise) has hit higher cost producers in the US more so than oil
    producing governments, the latter having to contend with budget deficits and obligations on a national level but usually enjoying far lower production costs and capable of
    weathering the storm in the short term In the event of an upside shock to price, both Democrats and Republicans tend to rush to bring it back within range fearing the economic consequences of higher energy prices for an economy still heavily reliant on the energy commodity In the event of a price crash, oil companies who are based in the Republican heartland would prefer a Trump win that would result in supporting the sector and aiding in sidestepping environmental concerns, as well as interfering as was the case with and Friends’ A Biden win on the other hand, even if it doesn’t result in the infamous ban on fracking claims, would remove subsidies, could result in more supply out of Iran, and be less likely to interfere in a downward price shock, especially if (as with the oil price war of 2014 16 it results in weakening and pressuring geopolitical rivals. 
    Oil Companies: Given their reliance on higher oil prices as a perquisite to posting profits and ensuring dividend continuity, the net result for oil companies would be a preference for a Trump win over a Blue Wave, especially if the latter impose curbs that would dent transportation demand further, pass legislation that would be stricter for oil and gas companies, and push for emissions curbs in the automotive sector that would hasten the shift to transportation via alternative energy
    Alternative Energy Big incentives await the sector with a Biden win, with the move towards alternative energy gaining pace, while mixed control may result in the status quo.
    Indices A contested result would be a bearish case for US indices, but if the results (and any potential transition) go smoothly, would take some uncertainty out of what has been an already uncertain atmosphere Republican policies involve lower taxes, less regulation, and the absence of a minimum wage hike that are likely to positively resonate with big business, and in turn the popular indices representing large US companies While the difference may result in short term noise for the stock market, there are more underlying factors to note Central bank easing has translated into inflationary tendencies for asset prices in the financial market with few alternatives available in the bond market and even less in the real economy, and that combined with the government’s perception of the stock market as a bellwether for the economy will continue to offer a floor on any major price drops.
    Tech: It isn’t looking promising under a sweep of either political party, with both sides taking aim at the tech behemoths whose market share will likely continue to grow if the coronavirus is here for the long term and economies are forced into more curbs and restrictions Increased fiscal stimulus from Democrats is expected to be a boon for consumer staples and discretionary purchases (not necessarily for companies who will have to deal with higher minimum wages, rise in taxes and increased distancing requirements), and any increase in curbs from a Blue Wave will only translate into increasing reliance on tech companies to deliver where brick and mortar won’t be able to For tech companies, bigger may not necessarily translate into better when it comes to being in the spotlight of the government Under mixed control the damage is expected to be limiting, while a sweep (red or blue) would make tech titans an easier target.
    Trade: It’s no longer a question of a China rising, but how soon it’ll surpass the US in the remaining fields where it lags At this stage, it’s a strategic move for the US to try and contain its growth and ensure the ‘strategic competitor’ doesn’t take the number one spot, with previous Democratic and Republican presidential candidates both working in an indirect way by aiding surrounding neighbors and coordinating with allies, only to simultaneously increase the reliance of the US economy on its supply chains. Both sides of the isle have gotten more confrontational in talk and action against China, but it began with Trump taking a far more direct and unconventional approach, an approach that is expected to subside with a Biden win. An absence of rising tariffs would aid the global trade environment, ease USD illiquidity, take global indices higher, and give emerging market currencies a boost. A Trump win (regardless of who takes the House or Senate) would translate into more confrontation between the two heavyweights, and a further undoing of economic interdependence, yet to translate into losses for US companies reliant on the country both as a manufacturing powerhouse and (for some) providing the
    largest consumer base
    Banks: Regulatory changes from a Blue Wave would be negative for bank stocks, as would any increase in taxes and/or programs from the Democratic party to address inequality. That would translate into bearish moves, even if expectations are for rates to rise sooner under the blue party Mixed control would prevent any significant
    legislation from being passed, and in turn likely keep the current situation unchanged.
    Automotive: The domestic auto industry being based in a usually blue state while foreign automakers opening plants in red states meant that automakers usually preferred a Democratic presence in Washington to come to the sector’s aid in the event of a downturn, but not necessarily offer much upside potential The reason? The ‘Big Three’ are already trying to forge alliances to tackle a battery powered future, thanks to funds from primarily SUV sales, meaning any big legislative push for curbing emissions from team blue would hurt that aspect Mixed control of the three is unlikely to result in significant changes, and may in fact offer less uncertainty to the sector.
    Gold: While a bigger stimulus package from the Democrats would aid growth prospects in the short term, the US market isn’t a traditional one for purchases of the precious metal. And yet, a massive increase in gold purchases this year has aided in taking its price to record highs. The source however, has primarily been on the ETF front, and as a hedge against purchases in equities given the current state of the bond market that isn’t properly covering expectations of a weakened currency thanks to central bank intervention. Any undoing of that trade however, and the gains witnessed as of late are at risk of being undone, especially if a speculative move in the mid term wouldn’t receive central bank or government aid the way the stock market has been accustomed to it. Low rates for longer periods of time certainly make it an attractive asset to hold onto, and
    when it comes to a win for Democrats in the elections a weaker greenback in the short term could take prices higher, with a hike in Fed rates being brought forward undoing any short term gains in the medium term.
    Silver: While gold prices suffered at the start of the pandemic during the ‘sell everything’ moment, it was silver that underperformed heavily and briefly took the gold/silver ratio
    to a record high in the 126 s. It’s dropped back into the 70 80 ranges since, and the story has generally been one of bigger percentage volatility, reliant on rising gold prices to outperform while underperforming when gold prices retreat (in other words, see gold).
    US Dollar: Bigger stimulus plans combined with ongoing central bank easing at low rates for longer usually translates into a weaker currency, and it’s likely a potentially more relaxed trade atmosphere and less pressure on companies to shift operations and funds back to the US would aid global USD illiquidity pressures, and put the greenback into further retreat against the majors, as well as many emerging market currencies. The story may differ for commodity currencies, especially for those with an energy underlying
    should oil prices suffer another downside shock on domestic curbs or even a lockdown. However, whatever losses the dollar may suffer in the short to mid term are likely to be eventually undone in the mid to long term, as increased use of the greenback will only increase reliance on it for debt servicing.
    Cryptocurrencies: No one (at least privately) embraces competition, especially at the level that involves central banks and money/debt creation No surprise then that there have been plenty from both sides of the isle against the introduction of ‘ cryptocurrencies like Facebook’s Libra that in its initial proposal would have posed a threat to a core government function Trump’s attitude thus far has been more hands off, with a Biden win likely to result in increased regulation PayPal’s embrace has been seen as a positive for
    the sphere, but with so many Bitcoin untouched in wallets, its reliance as of late has been more on its use as a store of value instead of previous expectations of its promise as a global medium of exchange Absent any regulation, a weaker greenback would in theory aid cryptocurrencies whose money supply increase is limited compared to central banks as fresh lockdowns emerge Regulatory action, a speculative move (easy given lack of liquidity on the crypto exchanges), or another sell everything moment would be needed to
    convince holds to exit en masse.
     
    November 2, 2020- Week ahead: As if the US elections weren’t enough of an item, we’ve got significant fundamental events on the economic calendar. Three central bank announcements with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to reduce its key rate from its current record low 0.25% to 0.1%, and where it could in crease bond purchases on long term maturing debt. Both Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve are on Thursday, the former potentially raising asset purchase s a midst another lockdown and extension in its wage program. As for the latter, its statement following the elections will be closely read with regards to commentary ab out current economic conditions amidst
    rising coronavirus cases and the economic outlook, with its Chairman Powell questioned thereafter. The central bank recently ann ounced that its Main Street Lending
    Program would issue loans as low as $100,000 and reduce the fees for those loans, the previous minimum amount being $250,000.
    And then there’s the data. Weekend PMIs out of China from CFLP showed ongoing expansion in both the manufacturing and services sectors, and we’ll get the final
    figures out of Markit for the Eurozone and UK, Caixin for China, both Markit and ISM for the US, and Ivey for Canada. Once that’ s out of the way, focus will shift to US
    employment, with ADP’s non farm estimate on Wednesday projected to show a 690K increase, the usual Thursday unemployment claims that as of late has been beating
    estimates but are still stubbornly high, and the BLS’s Non Farm Payrolls on Friday where the unemployment rate is expected to drop a couple notches. The ongoing surge
    in coronavirus cases, any updates on the vaccine front, and earnings are other items to note.
  9. CharlotteIG
    Friday’s US jobs report could bring a bearish reversal for the dollar despite the ongoing bid to claw back jobs lost in March and April.
    The August US jobs report released on Friday provides traders with another opportunity to take a close look at the ongoing economic recovery following the economic collapse that took hold in the first half (H1) of 2020. Capping off the week, the jobs report will be released at 1.30pm (UK time) on Friday 4 September.
    ADP weakness could spell trouble for headline NFP number
    The US jobs outlook has been showing signs of gradual improvements over the course of the past few months, with the height of the crisis seemingly having occurred in April. However, we are reaching a period where that recovery appears to be slowing somewhat, with the payrolls figure decreasing over the past two months. The automatic data processing (ADP) payrolls figure highlights the potential for further disappointment on Friday, with another underwhelming figure this week (428K) highlighting the lack of follow through on this recovery.
    Looking at the jobless claims data, we have seen the initial filings decline once again, following a tentative push higher in mid-August. However, while we are moving in the right direction once again, this is a sign we are seeing some bumps in the road as the US economy attempts to recover from the 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April. So far less than half of those losses (42%) have been regained.
    Markets are expecting to see a decrease in the number of jobs created, with a figure of 1.49 million well below the 1.76 million seen in July. However, it is worthwhile noting that the rate of improvement was always likely to slow after initial gains made as the economy first turned a corner. Nevertheless, the economic picture is still improving, as highlighted by the unemployment rate which is expected to break below the 10% threshold for the first time since April. Despite last months decline, it is important to follow the participation rate, with a recovery in that rate telling a story of how people are feeling confident enough to return to the workplace. Finally, with average hourly earnings expected to fall from 4.8% to 4.6%, we are seeing a signal that those lower paid jobs (often in the services sector) are returning after the initial lockdown shock.
    Dollar index technical analysis
    Looking at the dollar index, we have seen huge declines for the greenback over the course of this crisis. The past month has seen a more balanced market, although we have maintained the bearish theme. With the price on the rise over the course of September thus far, there is a chance we could see another move lower given the confluence of trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance up ahead. With that in mind, it will be worth watching for a sign of a bearish reversal from here, with a break through 93.50 ultimately required to bring about a fresh bullish outlook.

     
    By Joshua Mahony
  10. CharlotteIG
    We're offering weekly equity options on the platform for some stocks over earning season. Meaning you don't have to call us if you want to trade certain equity options. This week it's Netflix. We're also offering Tesla but that will stay on the platform going forward whereas the weekly options will change depending on which week of earnings season we're in. 
     
    What is an Equity option?
    Equity options are a form of derivative used exclusively to trade shares as the underlying asset.
    In essence, equity options work in an extremely similar way to other options, such as forex or commodities. They offer the trader the right, but not the obligation, to purchase (or sell) a set amount of shares at a certain level (referred to as the ‘strike price’) before it expires. To buy an option, traders will pay a premium.
    When are these available to trade?
    These equity options will be available in the main session (14:30 - 21:00 UK time). 
    Where to find them?
    You can find them under 'Weekly US Equity options' on the left list on your web platform. 

     
    Earning season information for this month: 

  11. CharlotteIG
    US Reporting Season has begun, and will continue until the middle of February.

    The market data that matters:
    EPS Growth Expected (YoY)
    Revenue Growth Expected (YoY)
    Current Price-to-Earnings
    Est. FY1 Price-to-earnings
    Current Dividend Yield
    -9.2%
    -0.6%
    30.7
    22.9
    1.53%
     
     
     
     
     
    What is the market expecting out of this earnings season?
    The markets are expecting another contraction in earnings growth for the quarter, as corporate profits continue to feel the effects of the Covid-19 recession. Entering into earnings season, market consensus was projecting a year-over-year in earnings of 9.4%, according to data compiled by financial data company FactSet. If another quarter of negative earnings growth were to materialize, it would mark the 5th out of the last 6 reporting periods in which earnings contracted, despite the S&P500 continued to push to fresh record highs.
    What are ther key themes to watch out of earnings season?
    Will guidance reaffirm lofty stock market valuations?
    With expectations that earnings ought to contract for another quarter, the key issue for market participants this reporting period will be whether companies deliver guidance that reflects the positivity currently baked into prices. In a bullish sign for market fundamentals, profit estimates began an upgrade cycle in the last quarter, as market participants factored in greater optimism about the economic outlook going into 2020. Even still, valuations remain very high across the S&P500, with the trailing price-to-earnings ratio historically elevated above 30 – a level not seen since the Dot.com boom and bust.
    What impact will fiscal stimulus and vaccines have on profits?
    The upgrading cycle for corporate profits has come as a result of two macroeconomic factors: the roll-out of multiple Covid-19 vaccines in the US, as well as the deluge of fiscal stimulus coming from US President Joe Biden’s administration. The dynamic has sparked the so-called “reflation trade”, which has seen stocks sensitive to the business cycle outperform the market. Confirmation from company’s that they see a material pick up in profits owing to the vaccine and stimulus ought to buoy markets, who are positioned for a big uptick in economic activity this year.
    Which sectors will lead and lag?
    As investors position for an uptick in the global business cycle, the performance of cyclical sectors this earnings season will be closely watched. According to FactSet, the materials sector is set to deliver closer to market-leading earnings growth for the quarter, aided by the recent recovery in global commodity prices. Previous market leaders in the health care and IT sectors, which outperformed the market last year, are also expected to deliver positive earnings. On the side of the equation, some areas of the market sensitive to economic growth are expected to show considerable falls in EPS: the industrials and energy sectors ought to perform the worst this reporting period.
    Source: FactSet How could this earnings season impact the financial markets?
    Earnings season is already delivering considerable upsize surprises for the market, as company profits recover and valuations experience an upgrade cycle. There is tremendous optimism in the markets right now, with market participants taking on risk to position for an economic recovery driven by vaccine developments and fuelled by a stimulus. Despite calls of complacency amongst investors, the trend for the S&P500 looks skewed clearly to the upside, albeit with the momentum that’s slowing down marginally. Continued positive surprises from S&P500 companies ought to support the index’s rise, as it continues to clock-up fresh record highs.
               Kyle Rodda | Market Analyst, Australia
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. CharlotteIG

    Podcasts from IG

    By CharlotteIG,

    Why we've started making Podcasts
    Podcasts are a great way to develop your trading knowledge and prepare for your time on the markets. You can explore different trends and events with our market deep dives as well as gain incite from our in-house experts and guests. 
     
    Where can you find them?
    Our Podcasts are now available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. You can also find more information by following the link here.
     
    What Podcasts have we made so far?
    The IG Trading the Markets podcasts cover a range of topics on current market trends and educational material. Below you can find a list of the podcasts available so far.

     
    We have been looking at your interests and realised that you wanted more information on Cannabis.
    If you have anything you would like us to talk about, let us know by commenting so we can priorities your topics for our podcasts. 
  13. CharlotteIG
    Changes to trading hours on Presidents' Day 
    Opening hours on certain markets will change for Monday 17 and Tuesday 18 February 2020, as the US observes Presidents' Day - also known as Washington's Birthday. Below you can find the changes, please note it's all GMT. 
    Monday 17 February
    US equities and soft commodities are closed. Canadian equities are closed (Family Day). US index futures close early at 6pm. We will make out-of-hours prices on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq until futures reopen at 11pm. US energies, metals (including Spot gold and Silver), bonds, US interest rates and Dollar Basket close early at 6pm. They reopen at 11pm. UK energies open as normal. The Volatility index closes early at 4:30pm. It reopens at 11pm. London Sugar closes early at 5pm. Tuesday 18th February
    Livestock opens at 2:30pm and lumber at 3pm. This information is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but it is possible that these hours could change.
    All the best 
  14. CharlotteIG
    US Independence Day opening hours 2020

    There will be some changes to our normal opening hours over the US Independence Day period – between Wednesday 1 and Monday 6 July. Check the table below, and find out how the changes could impact your trading.
    Wednesday 1 July
    Canadian shares closed

    The Cannabis Index closed
    Thursday 2 July
    Lumber closes early at 6.05pm

    CBOT Grains close early at 6.05pm

    Livestock futures close early at 6.15pm
    Friday 3 July
    US equities and soft commodities closed

    US index futures close early at 6pm. We’ll make out-of-hours prices on Wall St, US 500, US Russell 2000 and US Tech 100 between 6pm and 9pm. 24 Hour indices close at 9pm

    US interest rates and the dollar index close early at 6pm

    The VIX closes early at 4.30pm

    US Crude, Gold and Silver close early at 6pm. Brent Crude and London Gas Oil close early at 6.30pm

    London Sugar closes at 5pm
    Monday 6 July
    Livestock futures opens at 2.30pm

    Lumber opens at 3pm

    The hours listed here are all in UK time. This information is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but it’s possible that these hours could change. We’ll return to normal trading hours after this period.
     
  15. CharlotteIG
    Chris Beauchamp’s insight
    US earnings season is upon us once again, with the banks taking their traditional place at the forefront of the procession. This will help to provide a different narrative to the ‘stimulus on/off’ discussion of the past week or more.
    As the UK heads back towards tighter restrictions, JD Wetherspoon’s full-year numbers will provide plenty of interest in how the pub operator views the outlook for its next 12 months. Key economic data include monthly UK employment figures, US and Chinese CPI and the German ZEW reading.
     


    Find this information every week here: https://www.ig.com/uk/week-ahead-ig?CHID=3&QPID=11253&tid=e2d0ba8fd7cf9373edd97d74e42ce104

  16. CharlotteIG
    Rolls-Royce shares (LON: RR) sunk by 10% to 83p on Friday after half-year results spooked investors over long-running problems with supply chain issues and inflation.
    The FTSE 100 engineer has struggled to gain traction after the pandemic crash in 2020 saw its shares collapse from 236p in February 2020 to just 39p by October 2020.
    And after recovering to 147p by November last year, the Ukraine war combined with tightening monetary policy has seen it surf below penny stock status since early April.

    Rolls-Royce share price: half-year results
    Despite positive momentum on its various R&D projects, earnings made for relatively bleak reading.
    Positively, the FTSE 100 operator generated revenue of £5.3 billion, a slight increase on H1 2021. However, it also made an underlying loss before tax of £111 million, primarily because of higher costs squeezing gross margin, which fell to 17.7% from 21% in the same period last year.
    In the words of CEO Warren East, Rolls is suffering from ‘post-covid indigestion.’
    By division, the picture is slightly more complicated. Its most important, civil aerospace, saw underlying revenue increase by 8% to £2.34 billion. The division makes money by manufacturing and servicing civil plane engines.
    While large engine flying hours remained at 60% of 2019 levels, they are currently up to 65%, and Rolls expects this key metric to rise to 70% by year-end and return to pre-pandemic levels around 2024. Despite the ‘theoretical risk’ posed by the expected recession, East thinks this only ‘might affect exactly which month in 2024-25 we get back to 100%.’
    Results elsewhere were mixed. The power systems division saw revenue grow by an impressive 20% to £1.37 billion. Further, order intake was £2.1 billion, up 53% compared to the prior half after enjoying record quarterly orders in Q2.
    Conversely, its defence division saw revenue fall by 9% to £1.61 billion, partly because of lower spare engine sales and delays in deal sign-offs. This performance will be especially disappointing for investors hoping for a ‘Ukraine boost’ to the bottom line.
    Source: Bloomberg Where next for Rolls-Royce shares?
    This is a complex question. Incoming CEO Tufan Erginbilic will soon be stamping his mark on the FTSE 100 stock. The reception to his appointment has been somewhat mixed; some view his accomplishments at BP as evidence of a much-needed firm hand on the tiller.
    Others question his lack of connections with Whitehall, an important consideration given Rolls’ political importance. The company has previously enjoyed the strong support of Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, a potential candidate for Chancellor when a new cabinet is formed later this year.
    In the short term, Rolls-Royce is trading in line with expectations. Despite the airport chaos, it is still expecting the all-important civil aerospace division to continue to show improvement through 2022.
    However, supply chain issues remain a concern. It’s being affected by delays in semiconductor deliveries, which could worsen if geopolitical problems surrounding Taiwan deteriorate. It’s also struggling to find alternatives to Russian titanium.
    And with CPI inflation expected to exceed 13% year-end, combined with union-backed demands for significant pay rises, Rolls’ already slipping margins will present a key conundrum for its new CEO. Fortunately, Erginbilic has a track record of cost-cutting while improving performance.
    This will become increasingly important as interest rates rise. Rolls’ net debt stands at over £5 billion and is only going to become more expensive to service as fiscal policy tightens.
    Longer term, Rolls-Royce’s stuck-in-the-mud share price must be starting to frustrate investors.
    Its project to deliver small nuclear reactors appears to be moving at a snail’s pace. The FTSE 100 company now has a shortlist of six potential sites, but take-off will need to wait until a new PM is declared. And this ‘new markets’ division is seeing operating costs escalate, in this half to £48 million despite delivering negligible revenue.
    But there are visible tailwinds. The company recently announced a deal with Qantas to supply 12 Trent XWB-97 engines to power 12 A350s, capable of powering non-stop flights between the UK and Australia. Moreover, it’s developed a world-record beating electric plane, and power gearbox, which could both create significant new revenue streams.
    The challenge is to turn these disparate successes into concrete share price action, which sees Rolls Royce shares break out of their rut.
     
     Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | 
  17. CharlotteIG

    The week ahead

    By CharlotteIG,

    Chris Beauchamp’s insight
    A shortened week for the US due to the Independence Day holiday sees non-farm payrolls published a day early coinciding with the trade balance and weekly jobless claims figures.
    Other key events of note include PMIs from China and first quarter figures from Sainsbury’s.
     
    Economic reports

     
    Company announcements

     
    Dividends
    Upcoming
    FTSE 100: Coca-Cola HBC, Homeserve, National Grid
    FTSE 250: Murray Int’l, ICG, Airtel, Workspace, Primary Health Properties
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
     
    To find the full index dividend adjustments for this week please go to:  
     
     
     
  18. CharlotteIG
    US jobs report preview: will NFP follow ADP rise?
    The September US jobs report released on Friday provides traders with a fresh opportunity to scrutinise the economic recovery after months of improvements that have followed the first quarter (Q1) economic collapse.
    Coming at a time when we have seen a resurgence for the dollar, the jobs report will be released at 1.30pm on Friday 2 October.
    Tune in to IGTV live announcement and analysis this Friday at 1.25pm UK time on the IG platform.
    Will improved ADP helps lift sentiment
    The September Automatic Data Processing (ADP) payrolls figure released today has seen another month of improvement, with a figure of 749,000 representing the highest amount of job creation in three months.
    That rise can be specifically attributed to small and medium sized businesses, with hiring at large firms remaining largely steady. Unfortunately, markets are expecting the headline non-farm payrolls figure to move in the opposite direction, with a reading around 900,000 expected after last months 1.37 million figure seen last month.
    With the monthly jobs created moving lower, there is a fear that we could soon see that path of economic improvement take a negative turn. As things stand, that steady improvement seen over recent months remains on track, with the four-month decline in continuing claims pointing towards further reductions in the unemployment rate.
    Market forecasts point towards a reduction in the headline unemployment rate from 8.4% to 8.2%. However, one potential warning sign looks like it could come from the U6 unemployment rate, which also includes both workers who are no longer looking for employment, and part-time workers looking for a full-time job. With more comprehensive measure expected to rise to 15.4% from 14.2%, this month could see the first cracks appear in the recovery.
    Dollar index technical analysis
    Looking at the dollar index, we have seen the greenback drift lower following a bullish breakout last week. The wider downtrend remains intact, yet we have seen a clear bottoming out over the course of August and September.
    The rise through 93.64 brought about a bullish signal, with the weakness we have seen since Friday's peak providing a potential buying opportunity. As such, further upside looks likely before long, with a drop below 92.75 negating that bullish outlook. Until then, a bullish turn looks like for the dollar.

    Source: ProRealTime
    By Joshua Mahony
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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