nit2wynit

the Trial Isn't Gap Reversal though. I'm just changing from Long or Short to see how the results differ in this particular Instance. Now we just need to find a Pre-Market Screener so our Stock List is already there and Charts open ready to trade. Waiting fro bell to open then looking is problematic to say the least.

My greatest Loss is Scorpio Bulkers. Look what that could have made! £140 in less than 2 mins and it went on to make roughly £400 in half an hour if you had the nerve to keep it.

Well, here they are to see. I'll be honest I'm not sure I'm on to something here. Spread Factor vs Time vs % moved vs £100 or less. There's more to this Sweet Spot than I can probably fathom. Is it Safe to assume that If i went Long on these they'd all be winners? 12 trades with 2 still running. 90% success rate (success=analysis points)

This is quite telling and in my early days I lost a lot because I didn't account for Spread. These days my Stop is either at SR points Plus Spread. If Spread is 2 points I will add half then double it, so 6pts to cover. Some of those examples has a 45pt spread so I covered 100pt Stop Loss. Realistically as you've pointed out, using Minimum stop that covers Spread only will surely put you in trouble no matter which way it goes. Further anaylsis is required then.

Hmmm. I see. the plot thickens. Well, so long as we're ticking boxes, here are the results after 8 minutes going Short at the Bell. What we can see is 10 random trades with 8 losses and 2 wins. The Interesting part is when we consider that these were all Gapping UP. If I'd bet Long they'd all be winners as my Limit and Stop are the same. I have 5 other trades still open so I'll post those results at 3pm.

Something to gauge today peeps. I have been experimenting with random placing of Trades at 1st Bell 2.30 US. The results are quite staggering, but I'm not sure how to colate them into something of use. I shall be searching down the US List for anything within a price range of £100 or less or percentage Up of 1% or more and placing Short Positions with no regard for Chart info. I shall however, be placing a Stop that is equal to my Limit; 1:1. So far, each grouping comes out with a 70/30 split of Success or Failure consecutively, meaning that no matter which way I go, the Fails or Successes are uniform. What I'm assuming so far is that the success or failure is dependent on Timing alone and not chart pattern, in this instance. While this of course sounds obvious, it's more to do with the statistic of Random Choice and how the rate of Win or Lose is consistent at around 70/30. If a pattern can be observed regarding Timing After the 2.30 Bell then one might assume that the Time to place Long or Short may play a bigger part than simple Chart Pattern alone. What I'm suggesting is it might be revealed that at 2.45 for instance, the percentage of Trades are going Long, but at 3pm they are going Short. I'm hoping to expose or reveal a Timing psychology. To be more clear, Yesterday I went Long on 8 trades within the 1st half hour after 2.30. Of the 8, 4 failed one after the other, 2 won one after the other and 2 failed one after the other, but all positions were Long bar the last one which I Shorted. Today I will be Shorting from the Bell. I shall find 8 or so trades and do the same, placing a Stop where relevant and equal to my Limit of 1:1. I anticipate similar results of 70/30 against yesterdays results, but that most positions will Win. However, this isn't based upon any scientific data, just observation, speculation and the anticipation of Random Success.

lol ^

I think you'd just need to do this in Trends. Movements and Patterns repeat or disappear throughout the year. Personally I'd take it on the Week before and adjust each time to see if it's drifting.

need to register to see it.......

Yes, definitely. This is the point I've been trying to make. Take a look at the last week of the FTSE when you actually Trade. Use the 1M or the 5M and take note of how much it goes Up or Down before a retracement. Note how much the retracement is worth. However, if you're happy in the knowledge that it's gone up 10, come back 7, gone up 10 giving you 13pts then I suppose it works. For me, I'd take the 1st Ten. Certain Profit is better than Target Profit in my book. However, with this said, if it's automated and you've got other things to do I suppose it makes sense to leave it and walk away. Come back to see you've either Lost a Little or made a Profit. 70% win is great odds, so long as the Losses don't outweigh the Profit of course. What is the Value of the 30% losses compared to the 70% Wins?

Here's an Interesting point with regard to SB and Buying Shares. I bought $1000 worth of Pinterest @ $24. At it's peak I was up 50%, so $1500, but couldn't Sell. If i was Spread Betting with the £1000 Margin and a £100 Stop, at it's peak I'd be up nearly £2,500

I'm in lol....and that's how we got sidetracked. I was basically asking you how long you wanted to be in a trade, and how that trade might oscillate in a given Time Frame that would allow you to Maximise Profit before Retracement or Reversal. In my own example I've stated I wouldn't be willing to see my profit go up 10 points and watch it come back down 5 points. So, I'm trying to see where your model breaks down.

Exactly. And that's why only people who are already rich can make any significant sums of money in the short run. Us 'punters' have only one choice: to put by relatively small amounts, 'buy and hold' and hope for a relatively modest return by the time we retire. lol....why are you both quoting this?

I didn't think i had to explain that :O

Oh, use the 1M or 5m to place it. Give it 5 mins. You're in you're out. Your stop will be the same as your Limit. 5-10 Trades at Market Open. Either UK or US. Tomorrow after 2.30 I will show you either 5 wins or 5 losses consecutively using 1k Margin. Do the same and come back with fresh info. You, my friend, are not in the right frame of mind to be playing this Game!

Erm................................................................ You're not paying attention, bud. I literally placed those to show an example. I did them there and then.............................While typing I brought up the FTSE and placed a trade as if I only had £250. It dropped as I expected it to. then I placed another and made another £7 with only £250 margin. I make money all the time on the Demo. I play as if it's REAL money with a REAL Stop with REAL Risk. I'm up £750 in 5 days using 1k. Chill. Everything you've learned so far is Wrong!. You're not playing it right. Go to the demo. Make 10 trades using 1:1 PL ratio. Then come back. EDIT: But lets keep the negativity to Is SBFF thread.

Agree with all above. but 5 pts at a time x 4.

If i had 20k right now that I knew I could use to SB and could return 1% per day, 1k per week or 50k per year. with 20k Margin, I could even use the FTSE and take 5 pts at a time, thus ensuring i'm not in too long and can take profit quicker. Or is my math off?

:O Something is being Lost in Translation here. I'm going to hold my hand up and say it's me haha. We can pick it up another time if you like.

No no no lol. I WOULD NOT trade the FTSE with only £250 as to ensure I stayed in the Long Game I'd need to put a Stop at S3, when using the 1D chart. We can see the chart on the Daily and either think it's actually going Up still coming down.

Hold on. lol. Wait............. £250 Not £250,000! Points moved vs % moved doesn't matter. The larger your account size the larger the profit. Whether you measure it in £ or % makes no difference. If i could make 1k in 1pt move or 1% move! What's the difference. they both equate to Time inthe Game. the chart either moves large points or large %. A £1 stock that move 100% still only moves £1. But a £100 Stock that moves 1% is 100pts. (or whatever the sum equals) you get my point. My goal is to use Capital to create more money. Ross Camera doesn't Bet Exponentially. He doesn't use 10 million to trade. He still has a fixed amount regardless of his account size.

I've just made another £7 on the FTSE Drop. My Minimum Stop was still 8pt but i was right at the top of the resistance point. I got out right away to take a clear profit. I suppose what I'm really commenting on is how we all see different things on screen and how we play it out.

Look at the Daily. If I had only £250 but wanted to Trade today and make sure I was covered, I'd put a Stop at S3 and take profit at 7500, but with £250 account size the Stop would cost £87. That's a massive amount to risk of only £250, plus the time it would take to reach 7500. Therefore, the Risk and Stop is relative to account size. The chart patterns are the same, but what time frame, and account size dictate how and where you place your trades.

It was more to do with Timeframe and when to get in and when to get out. Compare it to the Daily. It's all green. Yeah you're right. If you had 1mil to put down you could play a shorter and make massive profits. My example was to show when to expect a retrace or a Pullback or a Pause in relation to Chart pattern and Timeframe. There's lots to see and gauge on a 1M that some belive to be noise. I don't however. In relation to my previous info, I suggested that the longer you're in, the more it can change. That unless you know the Trend Direction and can cover a stop it doesn't really matter where you get in, so long as your stop is covered. So in turn I only have £250. I was only able to get in on this because i had a belief it had hit Resistance and was coming down. But the Trend for the Day is Up. If we look on the Daily I'd assume it was going to continue UP in a Trend, therefore I would bet UP with a larger account size. the move down would be of little significance. I think I've gone about this in the wrong manner lol. This chart suggest such a small opportunity for profit based upon the chart movement at this time.

I've just taken profit on it at £4.03. My 8pt Spread put me at risk of £5.?? (missed the pence) but I would only have let it reverse 4 pts or about £2 or £3. I took profit at 7215 as i figured it was going to Stop and retrace, but I'd also figured I had my 1:1 ratio already and didn't want to risk the retrace and lose profit. this is based on the timeframe of 1M and seeing how much the chart has been moving in 1M and 5M. So My Potential Risk was £5.50 ish. My actual Risk was only £2.50 ish, therefore my profit was to be £2.50 or above. I took £4. Edit: Looks like I got out right time. However, it's in the middle of the SR zone now so I wouldn't go back in till it hit one or the other.