Jump to content
Meta down 17%... are investors tiring of AI? ×

JamesIG

Administrators
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,301

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    26

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by JamesIG

  1. JamesIG
    Asian markets broadly subdued to to global tech sell off. BoJ pledged to keep it's interest rates 'very low' and added flexibility measure to its stimulus package. This decision leads the way with the big IR decisions taken by the leading central banks this week. U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England is seen raising interest rates on Thursday. Dollar ends up paring losses against the yen after the BoJ meeting. Oversupply concerns cause oil to drop by it's largest daily amount in 2 years. Gold is slightly firmer but nothing to write home about at $1,222/oz. If you're looking for a big macro day, today is the one. Calendar below only shows high importance events.  Asian overnight: A largely negative session overnight saw marginal gains in the Nikkei and ASX 200 provide the only respite from a wider trend of downside for stocks. Following on from yet another bearish session in the US, we are seeing continued uncertainty despite the overnight BoJ decision to largely retain their monetary policy in similar shape. Monetary policy has been kept extremely accommodative. The bank’s shift in purchases of exchange-traded funds toward assets linked to the Topix index did little to help the index over the course of the session, yet for the most part market fears proved unfounded. A busy economic calendar saw a largely bearish picture for the Japanese economy, with a rise in unemployment coming alongside fall in industrial production and consumer confidence. Chinese PMI figures did little to enable a more bullish outlook, with a deterioration in both services and manufacturing readings.
     
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the economic and corporate calendar really picks up, with the Germany starting in earnest with a better-than-expected retail sales figure of 1.2% (from -2.1%). The morning will largely focus in on the eurozone CPI and GDP figures, with core inflation expected to tick higher to 1%. On the GDP front, the only expected change comes in the year-on-year figure, with markets looking for a tick lower to 2.4% (from 2.5%).
    The afternoon sees another important GDP figure, with the Canadian growth reading predicted to rise sharply to 0.3% from 0.1%. Elsewhere, the US economy comes into focus, with the core PCE measure of inflation released alongside personal spending. Also keep an eye out for the consumer confidence figure. On the corporate calendar, earnings from Apple will no doubt grab the headlines as traders look out for any negative fallout from the recent trade war.
     
    South Africa:  Commodity prices are relatively flat this morning with gold remaining at depressed levels, base metals mixed and oil marginally lower although still  around multi-week highs. The rand is pretty much unchanged against the majors this morning. BHP Billiton is however up 2.25% in Australia suggestive of a firmer start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is down 2.6% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start today for major holding company Naspers. In turn we expect the Jse Top 40 Index to open flat to marginally lower this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8.55am – German unemployment (July): unemployment expected to fall by 17,000 from a 15,000 drop in June. Unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    10am – eurozone CPI (July, flash), employment (June), GDP (Q2, flash): CPI to be 2% YoY, unchanged from last month, and core CPI to rise to 1.1% YoY from 0.9%. Unemployment rate to rise to 8.5% from 8.4%, and GDP to be 2.5% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US personal income & spending (June): income and spending to both be 0.4%, from 0.4% and 0.2% respectively last month. PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to be 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    2.45pm – Chicago PMI (July): forecast to fall to 63 from 64.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (July): expected to rise to 126.5 from 126.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Just Eat saw a 30% increase in orders compared with H1 2017, after the firm successfully integrated Hungry House into the business. While the firm saw revenues rise 45%, the short-term costs associated with Hungry House meant pre-tax profit fell 3% to £48.1 million. Thomas Cook played down expectations for full-year profitability, as a growing demand for low-margin budget Spanish holidays reduced demand for more profitable packages. The firm saw revenue rise 10%, yet profits fall 3% for the three months to June 30, as many delayed plans to book a holiday given the warm weather at home. BP saw better-than-expected earnings figures, as higher oil prices and increasing production boosted profitability. The Gulf of Mexico disaster payoff continues to drag profitability, with $700 million paid out over the quarter. BP raised their dividend by 2.5%, while also buying $200 million worth of ordinary shares back, totalling 29 million. Anglo American Plc In the sixth sales cycle of the year, demand for De Beers rough diamonds was in line with expectations during the seasonally quieter summer period for the industry’s midstream sector. Abcam upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Aegon upgraded to neutral at Mediobanca SpA
    DNO upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    Tamburi Investment Partners raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Macquarie upgrades AECI to outperform with a target price of 12800c
    Renaissance Capital upgrade  African Rainbow Mineralsto buy with a target price of 15000c
    Heineken downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Wacker Chemie cut to hold at DZ Bank
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  2. JamesIG
    Chinese markets hit with yuan slipping to 6 month low and stock market and leading index falling. Oil sees significant positive price action as US pressures allies on Iranian crude oil. Trump hits out at Harley Davidson motorcycles for planning a move of U.S shores on the back of trade tariffs. 'Trading the trade wars' video by IGTV and Bryan Noble is today's featured video below. Gold slips as investors turn to rival safe haven assets. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency consolidating at the support, however no signs or reasons for a bounce as presence. Shares in Tesco and Sainsburys slide on loss of market share.  Asian Overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong indices led Asian markets lower overnight, with a sharp drop in the Shenzhen composite and Hang Seng providing the stand out underperformers amid largely flat trade in Japan and Australia. Rising oil prices provided a boost to energy stocks, with the US putting pressure on other countries to end the purchase of Iranian crude. In particular, this rise in crude prices helped shift the Australian ASX 200 out of the red, with the energy sector rising 1.3%.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session looks likely to focus on the Bank of England once again, coming off the back of last week’s rate decision. An appearance from Carney accompanies the latest BoE financial stability report. The US session will look towards core durable goods orders for their lead, with the latest trade balance data also taking on an important role given recent disagreements over trade. The crude market is also back in focus, with the latest US inventories due out later in the day. NZD traders should also be aware of the latest RBNZ rate decision tonight.
    When it comes to the Trump trade war tariffs JPMorgan economist David Hensley has stated that they "remain of the view that a large scale "trade war" remains a low probability though the odds of it happening appear to have increased". US Futures and Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning while the dollar and US treasury yields trade firmer. The trade war rhetoric generally continues, although US President Donald Trump looks to have softened his stance slightly saying that he may look to a less confrontational approach with China.
    South Africa: Precious and base metals trade mostly lower this morning while the rand is slightly softer against the majors. Oil prices have gained post the OPEC decision to raise output as well as supply disruptions in Canada. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for the local listing thereof. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (May): expected to rise 0.2% from -1.7% MoM, while excluding transportation orders forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3pm – US pending home sales (May): forecast to rise 0.1% from -1.3% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses

    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 22 June): stockpiles expected to fall by 5.1 million barrels after falling 5.9 million barrels a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Inmarsat drops over 12% as Eutelsat, the company who were poised for a take over bid, back out just hours after their initial interest as reported in the IG Community EMEA morning briefing yesterday. 
    Whitbread reported a 3.2% rise in Q1 sales, thanks to new hotel capacity and additional Costa stores. However, sales were down 1.3% in the UK on a like-for-like basis. Progress continues on the Costa de-merger, with progress on core infrastructure and efficiency work.  
    Ultra Electronics downgraded its first-half profit guidance due to cost overruns at its US defence unit. Expectations for full-year operating profit has been cut by £4-6 million. 
    Bunzl said that it expected revenue for the first half to be 11% higher at constant exchange rates, while spending on acquisitions so far this year has been £105 million. 
    Global Credit Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale ratings of A-(ZA) and A1-(ZA) to Transaction Capital Limited (SA) in the long term and short term respectively, with the outlook accorded as Stable.
    Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c
    Adecco upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Sainsbury upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    Carnival Plc upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Petrofac upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    BMW downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    Gima TT downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Rubis downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    ICG Enterprise Trust downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Featured video
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. JamesIG
    Asian shares fall as the Trump 'tit-for-tat-tariff' goes ahead. China responds. Ex-Japan Asia down 0.5%, Nikkei down 0.7%. China and Hong Kong markets on holiday. Dollar eased from it's 3 week high, whilst euro remains subdued. The World Cup has kicked off with a record 32 teams taking part. Pared with great weather so far this month, and a strong forecast going forward, pubs have the potential to thrive. OPEC members in Vienna are to meet this week to decide on whether or not to end the oil production freeze. Members are split so a decision either way is likely to increase volatility and present a potential trade opportunity. BoE to set interest rates on Thursday. The banks MPC to meet earlier this week. Asian Overnight: Asian markets traded lower once again overnight, as fears over a trade war between the US and China continue to set the tone. Friday’s confirmation that we will see tariffs imposed of $50 billion worth of Chinese goods prompted the Chinese to set out a similar package in return imposing tariffs on 659 American products such as cars, soybeans and seafood. With both the Chinese and Hong Kong indices closed for a bank holiday, the focus thus turned to Japan, which fell sharply overnight despite a rise in imports and exports.
    UK, US and Europe: Crude prices will be one of the main markets to watch for the week, with prices tumbling ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting. With the Chinese also indicating that their tariffs would include US crude, this further enhanced Friday’s selloff. A quiet day on the calendar front throughout Europe and the US sees markets retain focus on trade considerations. Central banks are likely to be the theme though, with appearances from Fed members Duke, Dudley, Bostic and Williams, coming alongside a Bundesbank monthly report and speech from Mario Draghi.
    South Africa: The local bourse looks set to open up lower this morning as global markets find short term pressure on the back of escalating trade war tensions. Commodity prices are trading lower with gold testing the $1280/oz level,  platinum the $885/oz and brent crude the $73/barrel mark. Base metals copper, zinc and aluminium all trade lower on the day. The rand is slightly firmer although still trading around its worst levels of the year. Conditions look particularly unfavourable for diversified resource counters today, further evidenced by BHP Billiton trading 2.4% lower in Australia. 
    Stock look ahead: Ashtead and Flybe are the ones to watch tomorrow as they release full year figures, whilst FedEx and Oracle in the US will release quarterly figures. Annual results for Severfield and Berkley will also be released on Wednesday and Micron Technology in the US publishes their quarterlies. Dixon Carphone will follow with annuals on Thursday. Quarterlies are expected from the UK's Carnival and the American Kroger on Thursday as well. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: How to trade a stock market crash
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Virgin Money has agreed an all-share takeover by CYBG, worth around £1.7 billion. CYBG will offer 1.2125 new shares for each Virgin Money share.  DS Smith reported a 17% rise in revenues for the year in constant currency terms, to £5.7 billion, while pre-tax profit was 8% higher at £292 million. The firm said it had seen good momentum so far in its new year.  PPC Ltd (SA) FY18 results showed headline earnings per share to have increased by 114c. Flybe expected to reveal widening losses tomorrow after a tough year and the 'beast from the east' remaining responsible for grounding nearly 1000 flights in the three months leading into March 31st. Other airlines worth watching. AB Foods upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Repsol upgraded to outperform at BBVA
    Cobham upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Enav upgraded to overweight at Barclays
    JP Morgan maintain overweight rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 450000c
    Pernod Ricard downgraded to underperform at RBC
    Robit downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. JamesIG
    Mark Carney will stay on as the BoE (Bank of England) governor until the end of January 2020 to help the UK through any Brexit turbulence. Unilever laid out plans for it's December listing as a new Dutch entity, initiated originally due to Brexit risks. China is set to request the World Trade Organization (WTO) to hit the US with good duties. Dollar slips. Oil prices have risen following a report that the US crude inventories are set to decline. Whilst top oil producer Russia warns of a fragile global oil market, sanctions on Iran are expected to tighten supply. Asian overnight: Trade war concerns continue to loom over Asian markets, with the Hang Seng providing the one outlier within a wider bearish story for overnight indices. Chinese stocks suffered in particular, as the two sides refuse to back down amid claims of further impending sanctions. Oil prices managed to push higher, as Hurricane Florence continues to bear down upon the East coast. Meanwhile, in Australia we saw a further deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey, sending AUDUSD lower yet again. Global markets are looking a little healthier this morning with US Index Futures extending overnight gains in US equity markets.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, crude inventories will ensure that WTI and Brent remain at the forefront of the investor mindset. However, apart from the US PPI inflation figure, we are looking at a relatively quiet day for the European and US session calendars. Keep an eye out for an appearance from Fed member Brainard later in the day. 
    South Africa: The Jse Allshare Index is in turn expected to trade slightly firmer on open. The dollar has recouped some of yesterday's losses which see's precious metal prices trading slightly lower this morning. The trade war narrative continues to weigh on base metal prices which were under significant pressure yesterday, although they are posting a marginal recovery this morning. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.45% higher in Asia, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.61% lower in Australia this morning suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.30pm – US PPI (August): producer prices to rise 0.2% MoM from 0%, and core PPI to rise 0.2% from 0.1%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 7 September): stockpiles expected to fall by 3.4 million barrels from a 4.3 million drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSE has issued a profit warning, saying that adjusted operating profit for the first half will be down 50% compared to a year earlier, due to warmer weather and higher prices that have hit demand.  Sports Direct said it continued to trade in line with expectations, with underlying EBITDA to rise between 5% and 15%, excluding the acquisition of House of Fraser.  Clover Industries FY18 results showed normalised headline earnings earnings per share to have increased by 224.7%. LSE Upgraded to Buy at AlphaValue
    Taylor Wimpey Upgraded to Overweight at Barclays
    Anglo American Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
    Gestamp Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan
    Moody's has placed MTN on review for downgrade 
    Telefonica Downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan
    Crest Nicholson Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  5. JamesIG
    Turkeys government has said it would provide liquidity and cut reserve requirements to Turkish banks yesterday. Lira drops. MSCI world equity index which tracks shares in 47 countries across the globe, down 1.1% yesterday and subdued overnight. Nikkei bounces 2.3% overnight. Deutsche Bank pointed to 5 lenders most at risk in the country due to a ‘meaningful presence’ - BBVA, UCG, ING, BNPP, and HSBC - the latter of which was down 0.72% on the closing bell yesterday. In tech Netflix head of finance will leave after 14 years, whilst Musk looks to Saudi for Tesla privatisation funding. German pharma goliath Bayer fell as much as 10% after a $289m fine from the courts who ruled one of its weed killers contains carcinogenic chemicals. The firm faces 5,000 other possible suits. Gold loses safe-haven status, near 13-month low and breaks the $1200 support. Asian overnight: Global markets trade in a more subdued fashion after yesterday's Turkey induced panic. US Index Futures are trading modestly firmer while Asian markets trade mixed this morning. The dollar is trading modestly lower today against a broad basket of currencies, in turn we are seeing a slight lift in emerging market currencies. While off their respective lows, precious metal prices are trading at severely depressed levels.
    Japanese and Australian markets regained some sense of composure following the recent Turkey-led declines. Interestingly, the Chinese and Hong Kong markets remained entrenched in a downward spiral, with a whole host of disappointing economic numbers from China denting confidence. Weaker than expected fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures were accompanied by a sharp jump in unemployment. However, while China seems to be feeling the effects of their breakdown in trade with the US, the surprise rise in German GDP (0.5% from 0.3%) helped allay fears closer to home.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, Europe looks like the place to be, with a whole host of economic announcements ahead of a remarkably quiet economic calendar from the US. Early trade brings the pound into focus, with the latest jobs data bringing a particular focus on the average earnings numbers. We then shift our concerns across the channel, with the flash eurozone GDP reading due out alongside the latest German ZEW sentiment figures. With trade concerns denting this German centric survey, it is also worth watching the eurozone industrial production figure due out at the same time.
    South Africa: BHP Billiton is trading 1.5% higher in Australia, suggestive of a partial rebound in local diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is down 4.54% in Asia sugestive of a weak start for major holding company Naspers, which accounts for a 23% weighting in the Jse Top 40 Index. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK employment data: July claimant count to fall by 7800, while the May unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, and average earnings for June (inc bonus) are forecast to be 2.7% higher. Market to watch: GBP crosses
    10am – eurozone GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate): growth expected to be 0.3% QoQ and 2.1% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    10am – German ZEW (August): economic sentiment index expected to fall to -17.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Royal Mail has said that it will appeal the £50 million fine imposed by Ofcom, which the regulator imposed for anti-competitive practices.  Antofagasta reported a 32% drop in pre-tax profit for the first-half, to$465.6 million, while revenue was down 3.6% to $2.12 billion. Higher costs and lower production hit performance, and the firm slashed the dividend to 6.8p, down 34%. The firm added that trade tensions were creating ‘considerable market uncertainty’.  esure has reached a deal with Bain Capital, and will go private for £1.2 billion. This is a premium of 37% to Friday’s closing price. Bad weather pushed first-half profits down to £36.1 million, 20% lower, but gross written premiums rose 12% to £440.3 million.  Atlas Copco upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    TLG Immobilien raised to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Elementis upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Spectris upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    BBVA downgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    Siltronic downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Bayer downgraded to neutral at Citi
    Card Factory downgraded to sell at Berenberg

    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. JamesIG
    Oil seeing volatility ahead of a crucial meeting for OPEC on production. 'History of Crude Oil' video below. Emerging markets aren't helped by trade war talks and slip to a 9 month low. Trade war fallout starting to be seen with Daimler's profit warning likely to be linked to the imposed tariffs.  Relatively large macro economic day today. Give a once over to the calendar below and plan your day. Asian Overnight: Asian markets were largely back in the red overnight, as the market fear that has been dictating the state of play globally returned once more. Japanese markets also traded lower, despite a rise in the manufacturing PMI survey overnight, with the May figure also revised higher. Oil is going to be the talk of the town today, with the OPEC meeting reaching its conclusion. The question is whether we see a production rise by above or below 1M bpd. This is a rough the threshold that differentiates a result that is seen as a victory for Iran (below 1M), or Saudi Arabia (above 1M).

    UK, US and Europe: The PMI theme is going to stick around throughout the morning today, with a whole host of eurozone PMI figures released from the likes of France, Germany, and the eurozone. The big event of the day is certainly going to be the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where volatility across the energy space looks all but guaranteed. In the US session, look out for the Canadian CPI figures, alongside manufacturing and services PMI readings out of the US.
    South Africa: The dollar has softened overnight to give some relief to the rand and emerging market currencies. BHP Billiton is trading 0.7% lower in Australia suggesting a weaker open for the local listing and perhaps diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.2% lower in Asia, suggestive of a flat to softer start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Playtech has received approval from the Italian regulator to buy the rest of the shares of Snaitech not currently owned by the firm.  Allianz Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
    Telenor Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
    Zurich Ins. Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    Ceconomy Downgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
    Equinor Downgraded to Sell at DZ Bank
    Heidelberger Druck Downgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
     
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. JamesIG
    Asian overnight equity markets broadly subdued for central banks data test.  Dollar steady and range bound before key central bank meetings this week. Oil is mixed, however brent has eased as trade tensions continue to weigh. Gold prices have eased on the slightly stronger dollar. With Facebook, Twitter and Intel results all disappointing last week, the street may be cautious with the release of Apple's end of year tomorrow. Asian overnight: Overnight markets have started the week in a downbeat fashion, with losses across Chinese, Hong Kong, Japanese, and Australian markets amid a week of possible monetary tightening from the BoE and (potentially) the BoJ. The Nikkei is down 0.75%, as we lead into this week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. With US tech stocks failing to perform on Friday, that uncertainty has carried through into this new week, with earnings season likely to continue dominating sentiment. Data-wise, Japanese retail sales rose to 1.65; marginally lower than the 1.7% expected.
     
    UK, US and Europe: Global markets are trading softer this morning with US Index Futures continuing Friday's decline which was led by the US Tech sector (after Twitter results disappointed). Looking ahead, today represents a very quiet day on the economic calendar, with little to no major events to keep an eye out for. As we enter the start of a new month, this lull will not last long, with events coming thick and fast towards the second half of the week. The dollar has firmed since Friday's strong GDP print. On the corporate front, watch out for earnings figures from Caterpillar, Loews Corp, and Electronic Arts. More results listed below.
    South Africa: Precious metals and base metals trade softer this morning after gains on Friday. The rand is slightly weaker although still well its worst levels of the month. BHP Billiton is down 0.6% in Australia, suggestive of a lower start for local diversified mining counter. Tencent Holdings is down 2.57% suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. 
    Earnings look ahead: Catapillar look to releases results today, follower by Standard Chartered, Coats Group, Ralph Lauren, Pfizer, Procter and Gamble and Apple tomorrow. Wednesday will see Capita, BAA Aviation, BAE Group, Molson Coors, Metlife and TripAdvisor releases results, with a trading statement coming from Next.Aviva, the LSE Group, Inmarsat, Duke Energy, MGM Resorts and Yum! Brands will be on Thursday, whilst Heinz, Essentra and Noble Energy see off the end of the week. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    10am – eurozone business confidence (July): forecast to rise to 1.4 from 1.39. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

    3pm – US pending home sales (June): forecast to fall 1.5% YoY from -2.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Hiscox saw a strong start to 2018, with the insurance firm seeing a 21% growth in gross premiums written for H1. They saw profit before tax rise 21%, to $154 million, with the firm on track to exceed over 1 million customers in 2018. Senior posted a 31% rise in pre-tax profit compared with last year, with the firm trading slightly ahead of expectations. The Group delivered another strong cash performance, with good margin progression in both Aerospace and Flexonics. Interim dividend increased has been raised by 6.8%, to 2.19p per share. Hulamin headline earnings per share for the interim period declined by 77% from the prior years comparative period. Massmart An updated interim trading statement showed headline earnings expected to be between 16% and 26% lowr than the prior years comparative period.  Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. JamesIG
    Australian equity markets gain after leadership vote ends political uncertainty with the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison. Hang Seng equity market slips after US-China trade talks end without progress. Saudi Arabia has denied that its $2 trillion Aramco IPO has been cancelled, and that they’re instead waiting for “appropriate circumstances and appropriate time” for the listing. Trade concerns continue to hit gold prices however they do make gains, slowly inching up, whilst oil rises on US sanctions on Iran cloud supply outlook. Asian overnight: A largely positive session overnight has seen gains across Japanese, Australian, and Chinese markets, with the Hang Seng the one outlier after it traded moderately in the red. This comes despite heightened fears for US-China trade, with the two-day talks between the two countries ending in deadlock. With the US set to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports, the big question is how China will respond. Meanwhile, we saw the Australian leader Malcolm Turnbull ousted by Scott Morrison, with the Australian dollar gaining ground at the resolution of recent political uncertainty.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet economic calendar means that markets will continue to focus on US led political and economic concerns. Most notably US-Chinese trade relations. The big event comes from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Jerome Powell is set to make his first appearances since being criticised by Donald Trump. All signs are pointing towards Trump’s attempts to influence actions at the Fed going the same way as his comments on the Attorney General, with Jeff Sessions saying that the Justice department will not be influenced by Trump’s actions. Thus look out for a continued hawkish tone from Powell, with the Fed looking set to maintain its rate rise pathway.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    1.30pm – US durable goods orders (July): forecast to grow 0.8% MoM from 1%, while excluding transportation orders expected to rise 0.3% from 0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    CEO of ARK investments published an open letter to Tesla’s Elon Musk pleading him to keep the electric car manufacturer publicly valued. She argued the stock could rise to $4000 in 5 years if the company switched focus to mobility as a service rather than manufacturing. Petrofac has sold its interest in a North Sea oil facility to Ithaca Energy for $292 million.   Computacenter said that, for the first half, statutory pre-tax profit was up 9.5% to £52 million, while revenue was 18% higher at £2.01 billion.  Antofagasta upgraded to outperform at RBC
    N Brown upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    Ted Baker upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
    Hamborner REIT downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Implenia downgraded to market perform at ZKB
    John Laing Group downgraded to sector perform at RBC
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  9. JamesIG
    Asian shares down. China sees GDP growth data for Q2 soften which fuels fears as trade war row concerns build. Trump and Putin will sit down today for their first ever summit. Remarks from the pair could boost defence stocks. May's Brexit brings another MP resignation as the trade bill fight looms over the government. The UK's Rightmove house price index was published this morning and shows continued stalling and devaluation in London’s housing market. This could be seen as a barometer for wider inflation and brexit fears.  Oil prices remain volatile with prices easing on supply hike fears.  Dollar fails to gain momentum which supports gold prices. Earning season really kicking off with Royal Mail, Netflix, BoA, Unilever, Johnson and Johnson, and General Electric all amongst those publishing. Check out the ‘Earning Season weekly look ahead’ below for more info. Asian overnight: While Japan's Nikkei Index is closed on account of a banking holiday, most of the other Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning. A slow start to the week has seen losses across Chinese, Hong Kong and Australian markets. A weaker Chinese GDP reading saw the lowest level of growth since 2016 (6.7%), down on the previous 6.8%, however inline with expectations. We also saw a slowdown in fixed asset investment and industrial production, while retail sales provided the one positive reading. Trade war concerns are likely to continue into this new week, with Trump declaring that the EU, like China and Russia, is a foe of the US. Analysts from UBS speculate that a full blown trade war could knock off up to 20% from the S&P,  25% from European markets, and up to 24% off Asian equity markets.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, watch out for the eurozone trade balance data, while US retail sales, empire state manufacturing survey, and the business inventories figures provide the interest for the afternoon session. It's also worth noting that the UK's CPI figures released on Wednesday are expected to rise, backing up sentiment from some within the BoE’s MPC that interest rates should rise. Keep an eye out for GBP crosses and a bullish signal on any news which would support this claim.
    South Africa: While US Index Futures are modestly up, the Jse Top40 Index is expected to open modestly lower today following Asian markets. Precious metal prices trade slightly firmer this morning although still at depressed levels. Base metal prices are under pressure, as are oil prices today. The rand has managed to strengthen marginally against the majors over the weekend. BHP Billiton is down 0.75% in Australia, which along with softer base metal prices and a stronger ZAR is suggestive of a softer start for locally listed diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.15% on the Hang Seng. 
    Earning Season weekly look ahead: Earning season will really kick off this week with Bank of America, the worlds largest asset manager Blackrock, and streaming giant Netflix reporting figures today, along with the UK’s WH Ireland. Royal Mail and TalkTalk put out quarterlies tomorrow, along with Johnson and Johnson, Progressive, and Fidelity. Morgan Stanley, America Express, Hochschild Mining, RPC Group and Severn Trent look to publish on Wednesday. The well knock consumer goods company Unilever are up on Thursday, along with Big Yellow Group, Bank of New York Mellon, and Philip Morris International. General Electric, Baker Hughes, and Schlumberg will end an exhausting week on Friday. Told you it was a big one...
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US retail sales (June), Empire state mfg index (July): sales expected to rise 0.6% MoM from 0.8% and Empire state index to fall to 22.75 from 25. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Google could be hit by an $11bn fine tomorrow over allegations it’s forced it’s mobile Android users to illegally favour their own apps, for example the Chrome web browser, over others. This $11bn fine could be up to 10% of Alphabets global turnover. TP Group expects to deliver full-year results in line with expectations after making a good start to 2018. It has closed a number of contracts since January, including £12.5 million of UK contracts for submarine equipment.  Indivior has won a temporary injunction on a generic opioid addiction treatment.  Meggitt has won a $21 million five-year contract to supply equipment for US Black Hawk helicopters.  ZTE stock surges as US supplier sees their ban lifted, however the outlook still looks uncertain.  MTN Dubai Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of MTN Group, has entered into an agreement in which it has sold 100% of MTN Cyprus to Monaco Telecom S.A. (“Monaco Telecom”) as part of an ongoing review of its portfolio. The net sale proceeds of €260 million (approximately R4,1 billion) will be paid upfront in cash. The transaction values MTN Cyprus at approximately 8x reported 2017 EBITDA. Anglo American Upgraded to Buy at Citi
    Asos Upgraded to Buy at Citi
    Lagardere Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Ferrexpo Upgraded to Neutral at Citi
    AA PLC Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays
    NetEnt Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
    Adyen Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
    DNA Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. JamesIG
    Asian markets move lower on the rather tedious reiteration of trade war fears. Huge volatility spike sees Turkish Lira dropping 13.5% against the USD. Oil prices edged up on worries that reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran would tighten supplies. UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June) later today. Asian overnight: Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower, as trade fears continue to impact market sentiment. Japanese markets where the biggest loser over the session, with a big outperformance in the Q2 GDP figure (0.5% from -0.2%) paving the way for a push higher for the Yen. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble and Turkish lira continue to fall amid strained relationships with the US and political concerns.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, GDP remains a focus, with the UK figures to watch out for. Given the new monthly growth readings, watch for that figure alongside the wider quarterly one. With UK manufacturing production, trade balance, and industrial production also being released, it is likely that the pound is set for a volatile morning. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Canadian jobs data alongside the US CPI inflation reading.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    9.30am – UK growth (Q2), trade (June) and production data (June): Monthly GDP reading expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, YoY GDP 1.3% expected from 1.2%, and MoM expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%. Balance of trade expected to see a larger deficit of -£3 billion, from -£2.79 billion. Manufacturing production expected to fall from 0.4% to 0.3% (MoM), while industrial production is expected to rise from -0.4% to 0.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK indices

    1.30pm – Canadian jobs report (July): Employment change expected to fall from 31.8k to 24k. Unemployment exected to fall to 5.8% from 6%. Market to watch: CAD crosses

    1.30pm – US CPI (July): YoY expected to remain flat at 2.9%, while MoM figure is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    SSP has launched a $175 million US bond offer to pay down existing debt. Private placement notes will be issued in October in five series, maturing between 2025 and 2028.  Moneysupermarket.com has completed the acquisition of Decision Technologies, a home communications and mobile phone comparison business.  BMW upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Paddy Power Betfair upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
    Renault upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Telefonica upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Bakkafrost downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
    Basic-Fit cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Rolls-Royce cut to underweight at JPMorgan
    Hill & Smith downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. JamesIG
    This week sees Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU come to the forefront once more. IG's own Sara Walker will be joined by Nick Cawley from Daily FX and Simon French, Chief Economist to UK merchant bank Panmure Gordon, to discuss how the meetings outcome could affect the FX market. 
    The second #IGForexChat
    You can join us on Thursday 18 October at 6.30pm (BST) live on IGTV to get involved with the conversation. Submit your questions directly to the panel by adding your questions below, or by replying live in real time using the #IGForexChat hashtag on a number of social media platforms. 
    Topics to cover can be defined by you and other IG clients, so make sure you get your questions in now. 
    Overview of how the pound (EURGBP/GBPUSD) has been affected together with other indicators such as FTSE 100 What the possible outcomes of the next Brexit talks look like? Is Brexit also affecting other currencies such as the Euro/Dollar? Trading tips depending on final deals The speakers
    Simon French: Chief Economist at the UK merchant bank, Panmure Gordon & Company. He is a Top-5 ranked economist in the City’s Extel rankings and has a monthly column for The Times newspaper. Prior to joining Panmure Gordon he was a Senior Civil Servant, latterly at the Cabinet Office as Chief of Staff to the UK Government’s Chief Operating Officer. 
    He holds an Undergraduate and Postgraduate degree in Economics & Finance from Durham University and is a member of the Government Economic Service and the Society of Professional Economists.
    Nick Cawley: more than 30 years of experience covering a wide range of financial markets and instruments. After nearly two decades of trading and broking a variety of fixed-income products, Nick turned his hand to reporting and analysing macro and micro events in the fixed income and foreign exchange sectors.
    Submit your questions now
    Get involved with the #IGForexChat and put your questions to Simon and Nick. Submit your questions below. 
  12. JamesIG
    Fed raised rates as expected last night, and sees more hikes likely this year. Trade war tensions between US and China continue. Trump to meet top trade advisors today. Surprisingly weak data out from China regarding retail sales. South African rand hits a 6 month low whilst the Mexican peso continues to fall to a 16 month low. Oil largely unchanged, but larger than expected decline in US inventories, and an unexpected drawdown in gasoline. ECB rate decision later today. Keep an eye on euro crosses from midday. Related video below. UK, US and Europe: A hawkish Fed meeting yesterday has led to a downbeat session overnight, with much of Asia and Australasia trading in the red as a result. The 25 basis point hike was widely expected, yet it was the shift in the dot plot which signalled that we are now looking at a likely four rate rises in 2018, rather than three. Trade war tensions have however weighed on the dollar overnight, despite the hawkish guidance from the Fed. On the macroeconomic data front, Australian jobs data saw a sharp drop in unemployment (5.4% from 5.6%), although the employment change figure fell to 12,000 from 18,300. In China, the fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures all disappointed, with a rise in foreign direct investment providing the only bright element of this data deluge.

    Looking ahead, European markets will no doubt be looking towards the ECB for guidance, with market expectations shifting towards an increased likeliness that the committee will lay out a pathway to the end of QE. Also watch for UK retail sales in the morning, and US retail sales in the afternoon.
    South Africa: The weaker US dollar has aided some gains in precious metal prices while the rand is clawing back some of its recent losses against the greenback. The stronger rand is expected help financial counters stem their recent currency related losses. BHP Billiton is up 0.4% in Australia, while Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower in Asia. Naspers, a major holding company of Tencent, is expected to trade weaker in line with its Asian counterpart perhaps extending losses with the stronger rand. 
     
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Featured video: Is the ECB near the end of easy money?
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Rolls Royce has confirmed that it will undertake ‘fundamental restructuring’, cutting 4600 jobs and aiming to save £400 million a year. Further details will come at tomorrow’s capital markets event.   Rathbones has completed the acquisition of Speirs & Jeffrey, Scotland’s largest independent wealth manager, and it will raise £60 million to help finance the deal.  PZ Cussons said that trading in the first half of the year had been constrained by weakness in the UK and Nigeria, and that conditions in Nigeria and Indonesia will mean the second half will remain challenging as well.   Volkswagen have been hit by a 1 billion euro fine over the emissions cheating scandal.  Comcast have topped Disney with a $65bn bid for 21st Century Fox which is an offer of $35 a share in a full cash bid. This represents an increase of 19% over Disney's share bid. Banco Santander upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Verbund upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Oxford Instruments upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Tele2 upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    (SA) Investec upgrades Sibanye to buy with a target price of 1600c
    (SA) Investec maintain buy recommendation on BHP Billiton with a target price of 26900c
    Acciona downgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Grifols cut to neutral at JPMorgan
    Orion downgraded to underperform at Jefferies
    Pearson downgraded to underweight at Barclays
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. JamesIG
    Asian equity markets are mixed, however some pushed higher overnight over a volatile trading session as the Chinese yuan bounced off a one year low. Trump showed displeasure towards the Fed's hikes, criticising policy and highlighting concerns on the potential impact of rising interest rates on the US economy causing the Dollar to sag. The Comcast / Disney bidding war for 21st Century Fox ended yesterday with the former pulling out of the race. Comcast still plan on pursuing Sky. 70% of Royal Mail shareholders opposed a pay package deal for their new incoming CEO. Airbus and Boeing have seen combined orders of nearly 1000 aircraft as this years Farnborough Air Show. This week has shown strength in the aviation industry with the UK government also unveiling plans for its 6th gen fighter jet, the ‘Tempest’. A new test network has been launched for Raiden, an Ethereum payments channel project introduced as a potential solution for the cryptocurrencies scalability issues. Have your say on which new cryptocurrency IG offer in our community poll. Asian overnight: Markets in Hong Kong struck a ten-month low yesterday, as Asian shares continued to suffer thanks to concerns about global trade wars. Australia was the sole point of light, rising 0.3%, with only materials stocks lower. China’s currency continued to weaken as well, crossing the Rmb6.8 mark against the dollar for the first time in a year. Markets are speculating that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC)  will look to intervene in currency markets in lieu of the Yuan's recent decline.
    The yuan against the dollar, down to 6.8211 after sliding as much as 0.7 percent, is currently at its weakest level in a year.  It is now trading above the 6.7 mark, which historically has proved to be a strong support level for the yuan.
    UK, US and Europe: UK monthly retail figures disappointed yesterday forcing GBP lower and the chance of an August rate hike continuing to slide. High street retail is facing serious problems at the moment with Poundworld closing the last 190 of its stores as early as August 10th, and Goucho Groups ‘Cau’ chain set to go as the group heads into administration. Online competition, high rents, and a shifting discretionary consumer spending habit are the primary factors as Brexit and potential rising interest rates (and therefore larger mortgage repayments) weigh on many spenders minds. Premium ‘restaurant style’ deals at supermarkets, which really came into their own after the 2008 debacle, continue to be a cost efficient, easy alternative for many, whilst large online retailers such as Amazon (which saw its market cap nudge past $900bn a couple of days back) continue to thrive.
    The International Monetary Fund warns that a "no deal" Brexit would also be economically harmful to Eurozone countries, not just the UK. All goods and services would have to undergo stricter checks by the EU at its borders, complicating the systems currently in place. Estimates say that a "no deal" Brexit would cost the EU 1.5% of its GDP, or 250 billion euros.
    Looking forwards, the losses seen in the Asian market are expected to continue in Europe, with small drops for indices expected. Canadian CPI is the sole macro point of interest, while on the earnings front General Electric and Schlumberger report figures. The US dollar will also be in focus after President Trump commented that further rate increases could derail the economic boom in the US.
    South Africa: The rand slid even further than its emerging market currency peers yesterday after the South African Reserve Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2018 to 1.2% from 1.7% previously. The rand has however posted a modest recovery this morning, although the longer term trend appears to remain that of weakening. Precious metal prices remain subdued , although palladium looks to have bucked the trend posting a near 2% gain. Crude prices are slightly firmer this morning. BHP Billiton is 2% lower in Asia this morning suggestive of a softer start for local diversified miners. Tencent is flat on the day, suggestive of a flat start for major holding company Naspers, which accounts for around a 20% weighting in the JSE Top40 index. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – Canada CPI (June): forecast to be 2.5% YoY from 2.2%, and 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI to be 1.5% from 1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Beazley reported pre-tax profit of $57.5 million for the first half, down from $158.7 million a year earlier. Gross premiums were up 25% to $1.32 billion. Homeserve said that growth prospects for FY 2019 are good, thanks to in-line performance for the 1 April to 19 July period.   Unilever has commenced the second half of its €6 billion share buyback, which is expected to finish prior to the year-end.  Corem Property Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    NP3 Fastigheter Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Recordati Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
    Orion Upgraded to Hold at Jefferies
    Deoleo Downgraded to Underperform at BBVA
    EON Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Kone Downgraded to Hold at DNB Markets
    Outokumpu Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
    Featured Video from IGTV
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. JamesIG
    Geo-political troubles in Turkey push the lira lower, whilst selling in EM currencies spreads to South African rand and Argentine peso.  Asian stocks fall further.  Euro slips as the usual safe haven yen, the Swiss franc, and the dollar bid up. Cryptocurrencies mixed in the aftermath of the ETF rejection by the SEC.  Asian overnight: Asian markets exhibited a clear risk-off mood, with the fallout from the recent Turkish and Russian led selloff continuing to impact on market sentiment. Emerging market currencies have been under immense pressure last week and over the weekend led by declines in the Turkish lira. The major factors affecting Turkey and its currency (the Lira) are the economic sanctioning war it has entered into with the US as well as questionable economic policy which is said to not address the rampant inflation within the region. Turkish President Erdogan has battled against the recent selloff, stating that it was a foreign ‘operation’ against the country. With the ruble also selling off amid US sanctions, there is a clear rise in market worries over the developing markets.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, we have distinct lack of economic releases to drive price action. We also see a slowdown in the earnings calendar, with few notable companies releasing their data throughout the week. With that in mind, watch for ongoings in Turkey as markets continue to react to the potential further decline in the Lira and the fallout for Turkish companies.
    South Africa: The rand has followed other EM currency markets to trade at its worst levels against the dollar since November 2017. Global equity markets remain under short term pressure suggestive of a soft start on the Jse today. Tencent Holdings is down 2.3% in Asia which should see major holding company Naspers following suit, although the weaker rand might buffer some of these losses. BHP Billiton is down 1.39% in Australia, suggestive of a softer start for locally listed diversified resource counters. Local banking and retail counters are expected to be weaker on open today on account of the softer rand.  
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Chemring has said that profits will be £20 million lower than forecast due to an explosion at one of its flare factories. A knock-on effect in cash flow and net debt is expected as well.  Clarkson reported that pre-tax profit dropped 18% to £18 million for the first half, while revenue dropped to £152.6 million from £156.8 million. Depressed levels of sale and purchase activity, reduced rates in the tanker market and a falling US dollar were blamed. However, the firm said it was encouraged by the recent strengthening of the dollar, which suggest improvement in the second half.  BAE upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Wilh Wilhelmsen raised to hold at Danske Bank Markets
    Commerzbank upgraded to hold at Berenberg
    BBVA downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Bayer downgraded to neutral at MainFirst
    Circassia downgraded to hold at Stifel
    Meggitt downgraded to equal-weight at Barclay

    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. JamesIG
    Asia share markets mixed, China up on stimulus hopes GBPUSD hits a one year low as Brexit fears continue. Sterling’s slump guided the FTSE on a stellar rally. USD/TRY poised for continued big volatility swings over US/Turkey meeting. Oil price steady after sliding 3% yesterday. Asian overnight: Asian stocks were largely higher, with Japanese indices providing the one outlier amid a wider rally led by rampant upside for Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. One major drag has been energy stocks, coming off the back of a 3% fall in crude prices yesterday. The New Zealand dollar fell sharply, after the RBNZ governor set out a timetable which saw rate remain at rock-bottom levels into 2020. Elsewhere, Chinese CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, with CPI in particular rising from 1.9% to 2.1%.

    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the data remains relatively thin on the ground, with US PPIP and unemployment claims providing the only highlights. Earnings-wise, keep an eye out for figures from the likes of Macy's, Viacom, and News Corp.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US PPI (July): Forecast to fall from 3.4% to 3.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses, US indices
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Legal & General saw a fall in pre-tax profits (-19%) for the first half of the year, with market volatility impacted upon investment performance. This led to an 81% fall in investment (and other variances), from £175m to £33m. £90m of that H1 loss came from the firm’s capital traded assets portfolio. As a result, earnings per share fell 8% to 13p from 14.19p, with interim dividends for the group rising 7% to 4.60p per share (from 4.30p). Cineworld Group saw H1 profit almost trebled after a successful takeover of US group Regal Entertainment helped build on the success back at home in the UK and Ireland. The firm saw pro-forma revenues rise 2.5% in the UK and Ireland despite the heatwave and World Cup, while the US (which now accounts for 70% of Group sales) rose by 14.3%. Randgold Resources saw Q2 pre-tax profits halve from $150.16 million to $74.34 million, while earnings per share fell to $0.55, from $0.89 last year. Total revenues also suffered, falling to $283.66 million, from $336.79 million last year. Finally, sales of gold also decreased for the quarter, falling to $411.51 million from $422.14 million last year.  BBA Aviation upgraded to buy at Liberum
    Capita upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT 1.80 Pounds
    Deutsche Post upgraded to buy at HSBC
    UDG upgraded to buy at Jefferies
    Ahold Delhaize cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Grammer downgraded to hold at Quirin Privatbank AG
    L’Oreal downgraded to sell at Berenberg
    Tecan downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  16. JamesIG
    Asia shares inch up with yuan ahead f Sino - US talks.  UK minsters release their first ‘no deal’ Brexit documents on Thursday in an effort to prepare for a “worst possible” outcome. Persimmon results are expected tomorrow, with many in the sector looking to the release as a barometer for the wider housing sector and how a rising inflation rate will affect the market. Iran has stressed to OPEC over the weekend that no other member country should take up the slack for reduced oil exports in the face of Trump imposed US sanctions. Oil prices slip on concerns over slowing economic growth Asian overnight: A mixed start to the week for Asian markets has seen the Chinese and Hong Kong markets outperform, while Japanese indices were the big underperformer of the session, remaining in the red into the close. Markets are continuing their short term rebound with US Index Futures and the wider Asian markets trading firmer this morning. Optimism that meetings scheduled in late August and November, between China and US officials, will yield some resolve to the current trade war debacle is providing some of the risk on sentiment. A quiet calendar meant that much of the focus will be on the US-China trade talks, which kick off on Wednesday.
    UK, US and Europe: A quiet day on the data front sees a market focus on this morning's Bundesbank monthly report, alongside appearances from the Fed’s Bostic and Bundesbank’s Weidmann. As the corporate earnings draw to a close, there will also be less of a focus on earnings reports as a key driver of price action. Thus look out for any updates on talks between the US and China, alongside any updates on the Turkish story.
    South Africa:  The US dollar has softened somewhat to help lift precious metal prices off their worst levels of the year. The rand has in turn managed to claw back some short term strength against the greenback and the majors. Tencent Holdings has rebounded 3.1% in Asia this morning, suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.3% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local diversified mining counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    NMC Health saw a 19% rise in first-half profit, with the firm increasing revenues from Middle East hospitals. Net profit for the first six months of the year rose to $116.7m, while revenue increased to $932.0m (+20%). Patients rose by 20% in the healthcare division, with bed occupancy rates rising to 69.9%. AngloGold Ashanti Interim results showed adjusted headline earnings of $85m, or 21c (US) per share versus a loss of $93m, or 23 US Dollar cents per share in the first half of 2017. Increases in adjusted headline earnings were due mainly to the improved operating performance and the higher gold price. " Sasol FY18 results  showed headline earnings per share to have declined by 23%. CVS Group upgraded to outperform at RBC
    KAZ Minerals upgraded to hold at Liberum
    RBS upgraded to buy at Citi
    United Internet upgraded to buy at HSBC
    Boozt downgraded to hold at Berenberg
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  17. JamesIG
    Asian equities diverge, as Chinese shares fall and Japanese shares climb. The Euro jumped on Monday after Mario Draghi of the ECB signalled that policymakers are on track to reduce stimulus measures. He stated that the bank was confident it could maintain inflation targets over the next few years. In the EM space, India's Nifty Fifty stock market is seeing a sell off after reports that a major lender is struggling to service $12.6bn of debt. The index is down 7% since highs seen in the latter half of last month. Instagram founders quit the Facebook acquired business less than 6 months after WhatsApp founders do the same. Oil prices are remaining at their 4 year high despite some inevitable profit taking. As Reuters reports "US sanctions against Iran and unwillingness by OPEC to raise output supported the market." In the crypto space more than 75 of the worlds largest banks are joining the Interbank Information Network to see if blockchain technology can speed up payments and remittance processes.  US Consumer Confidence is the macro data to look out for later today. Asian overnight: The Japanese and Chinese markets have reopened following yesterday’s bank holidays with a disconnect between the two. The breakdown in talks between the US and China understandably continues to weigh on Chinese stocks, with the ASX 200 also in the red. Meanwhile, both Japanese indices have been gaining ground amid a strengthened USDJPY. Crude prices hit a four-year high following the decision from OPEC to not raise production over the weekend. Metal prices are trading flat today.
    UK, US and Europe: A quiet calendar ahead sees the US consumer confidence figure provide the one notable event of the day. With the Chinese trade talks continuing to sour, the expectations of a weaker reading are not surprising. Global markets are trading mixed this morning as they wait for their next directional catalysts, which are likely to be updates on the Brexit and Trade war narratives later this week.
    As gold prices continue to echo the swings seen in the USD, the market is generally looking towards Wednesdays FOMC monetary policy announcement before a direction is confirmed. Whilst from a technical perspective gold seems confined to a fairly tight range, it is pushing towards the falling 1220 target. 
    South Africa: The rand is trading slightly firmer this morning. The JSE Allshare index is expected to open flat to marginally firmer this morning. BHP Billiton is up 0.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local diversified resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    3pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): expected to fall to 131.3 from 133.4. Market to watch: USD crosses
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Next has seen a 0.5% rise in first half profit, to £311.1 million, while sales were up 3.8% to £1.99 billion. Full-price sales rose 4.5%, ahead of the expected 2.2%.  Imperial Brands said that it remains on track to hit full-year revenue and earnings guidance, thanks to a stronger second half due to an improved tobacco price mix and increasing next generation product revenue.  McCarthy & Stone will focus on cost-cutting, looking to save £40 million a year by FY 2021. It will produce around 2100 new homes a year, while looking to improve margins.  Alfa Laval upgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
    Boliden raised to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    Curasan upgraded to buy at Montega
    Epiroc upgraded to buy at DNB Markets
    Investec upgrade Anglo Platinum with a target price of 48000c
    Auto Trader cut to equal-weight at Barclays
    Sky downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    BHP downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    J D Wetherspoon downgraded to hold at Peel Hunt
    Investec downgrade Pick n Pay to sell with a target price of 6900c
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  18. JamesIG
    The rebound in Chinese stock markets has extended and US bond yields are steady after the market digested the trade tariff news. MSCI Asia-Pacific index up 0.95%, whilst the Japanese Nikkei rises 1.3% A reclassification of the S&P 500 will see tech behemoth such as Facebook and Alphabet move from 'information tech' stocks into 'communication services' along with about a fifth of the index. Oil prices are seen to consolidate after rally. Cryptocurrency markets are holding steady, and with higher lows being made across the board this could signal a trend reversal for many technical traders. UK inflation data is in focus today, likely to be closely watched as investors economic optimism hits a near seven year low. Asian overnight: Asian markets continue to defy expectations, with gains throughout the region flying in the face of an intensified trade breakdown between the US and China. In a retaliation to the US decision to implement tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, China has now responded with further duties on $60bn of US imports. Chinese authorities have however said that they would not intervene in the currency market and have not yet removed themselves from upcoming bilateral talks on trade with the US. Despite both sides announcing new tariffs yesterday, the level of those levies are somewhat lower than expected, sparking a relief rally.
    In Japan the BoJ decided to maintain a steady monetary policy, with the bank stating that they will maintain extremely low rates for an extended period of time.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session will focus on the UK inflation data, with CPI expected to reverse last month’s gain, with a tick lower to 2.4%. A similar move is expected with core CPI, where a shift down to 1.8% would help continue the downward spiral of 2018. CPI, which stands for Consumer Price Index, is a key measure of inflation for the UK and is used by the Bank of England in making interest rate decisions. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical British household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Sterling to purchase this same set of basic consumer items
    The afternoon brings building permits and housing starts from the US, while an appearance from Mario Draghi and the crude inventories means that we should have a sufficient amount of data to shift the needle.
    South Africa: The Jse Allshare index is expected to post  gains this morning following its international counterparts. The rand is holding on to short term gains while commodity prices tick higher on the back of a weaker dollar. Tencent Holdings is trading 2% higher in Asia suggestive of a positive start major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 2.89% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    9.30am – UK CPI (August): CPI to rise 2.7% YoY from 2.5%, and 0.3% MoM from 0%. Core CPI to be 2.1% YoY from 1.9%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (August): permits to fall 0.8% MoM and starts to rise 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 14 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 1.2 million barrels, from a 5.3 million barrels drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: WTI, Brent
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Stagecoach said that it has made a good start to its financial year, with forecasts unchanged despite a mixed performance, as revenue weakened in North America but UK rail revenue rose.   Kingfisher said that underlying pre-tax profit fell 14.8% to £375 million for the first half, while first-half gross margin fell 40 basis points. The firm said it remained on track to hit strategic milestones  NEX will pay $50 million to settle claims in the US relating to interest rate benchmark manipulation.   BAT upgraded to hold at DZ Bank
    CNP Assurances upgraded to hold at HSBC
    Commerzbank upgraded to outperform at RBC
    Concentric upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
    Castellum downgraded to sell at DNB Markets
    Coloplast downgraded to hold at ABG
    Credit Agricole cut to neutral at Mediobanca
    Fabege downgraded to sell at DNB Markets
    IGTV featured video
    Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. 
  19. JamesIG
    Fresh trade war chat causes Asian equity markets to see red as investors remain spooked. PBoC helps support Chinese assets by raising the reserve requirements on some forward FX positions, effectively making it more expensive to bet against the the Chinese currency. US dollar remains steady on the US jobs data on Friday, with currency markets focusing on the yuan. Saudi crude production printed a surprising dip in July, and with American shale production seemingly plateauing oil prices saw a welcome rise. Gold is off it's 17 month lows but still hovers around the $1200 area of key support.  German factory orders the key thing to note on a macro front. Asian overnight: A mixed affair overnight saw Australian and Hong Kong stocks shrug off fears of a deepening trade war between the US and China, while Japanese and Chinese indices traded in the red at the end of the session. Rhetoric within the two sides stepped up once more, with China threatening a retaliatory set of tariffs on $60 billion of US exports. One of the key reasons for the strength in Australian indices was the gains we have seen in Iron Ore overnight, with the likes of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both enjoying a positive session. Asian equity markets are trading firmer this morning, although China's Shanghai Composite trades 1.3% lower and the Nikkei flat. In retaliation to Trump's tariff retorts, China has said that it is ready for a "protracted war" in the wake of what they believe to be unreasonable demands from the US.
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, there are precious few economic events of note, with the German factory orders deterioration (-4% from 2.6%) already seen this morning providing one of the only releases of interest. Also keep an eye out for the Sentix investor confidence figure for the eurozone. A similar story for the US session, with a Canadian bank holiday adding to the calm of the day.
    South Africa: The rand is slightly softer and base metal prices trade mostly firmer this morning, while precious metal prices trade mixed. We are expecting the Jse to open up marginally firmer this morning. BHP Billiton is up 2.16% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local diversified resource counters. Tencent is 0.34% higher in Asia suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers this morning. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    HSBC saw adjusted profits fall 2% over the first six months of the year, with an 8% rise in adjusted operating expenses denting overall profitability. Pre-tax profits (~$6 billion) came in marginally below estimates too, while adjusted revenue rose by $2 billion compared with the same time last year. With the bank in a transitional period, the higher operating expenses come amid significant investments in both the retail and investment arms of the business. easyJet saw passengers rise 4.5% in July compared with the same time last year. On an annual basis, the number of passengers flying with the airline in the 12-months to July rose 6.2% compared with the same time of year in 2017. Vedanta Resources saw a 26% YoY jump in EBITDA for the first quarter ending in June 2018, driven by higher volumes and commodity prices. Standout operational highlights included record quarterly aluminium production (up 37% YoY), Gamsberg Zinc production to commence in September, and average Oil & Gas production up 4% YoY. Wizz Air said that passenger numbers rose in July by 23%, thanks to new routes to Moldova, Romania and Austria. Load factor jumped 0.8 points to 95.4%.   BMW upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
    Morgan Advanced upgraded to buy at Berenberg
    Norsk Hydro upgraded to neutral at Goldman
    Proximus upgraded to neutral at Citi
    Banco BPM cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    DNB downgraded to hold at Jefferies
    Osram downgraded to hold at HSBC
    Safilo downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
    Featured Video
    Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  20. JamesIG
    Asian market gain whilst Chinese shares hit a 1 month high on hopes of a government stimulus package.  Hedge funds bet on higher government bond yields extending the USD gains, and prompting a gold sell off. Oversupply worries continue with oil causing a drop in prices.  Despite Google's Alphabet multibillion dollar fine, shares jump on results to a record breaking all time high. Crypto markets currently up but generally trading in a range.  Asian overnight: A positive session overnight saw gains across Japanese, Chinese, Hong Kong and Australian indices. Government bonds added to a sense of stability, with yesterday’s BoJ-fuelled volatility easing to give way to a move stable session. However, that Japanese theme continued on the data-front, with a weak manufacturing PMI (51.6 from 53.0) and BoJ core CPI (0.4% from 0.5%) adding to the difficulty for Japanese central bankers. It is clear that despite a whole raft of loose monetary policies, strong growth and high inflation remains elusive. 
    UK, US and Europe: The PMI theme looks set to continue into the European session, with a whole raft of eurozone PMI surveys due out throughout the morning. Particular attention is likely to be paid to the manufacturing sector (particularly German) amid the trade war with the US. Once again, PMI surveys will be key in the US session, with both manufacturing and services PMI surveys providing the main economic releases of the day.
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    8am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (July, flash): eurozone services PMI to fall to 53.7 from 55.2, and mfg PMI to rise to 55 from 54.9. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (July, flash): mfg expected to rise to 55.5 from 55.4, and services to fall to 56.3 from 56.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    Hammerson said that full-year profits had fallen 81% to £55.7 million, although adjusted profit was up 0.5% to £120 million. Net rental income was down 3% to £178.5 million. The firm plans to sell £1.1 billion of property by the end of 2019.  PZ Cussons said that pre-tax profit slipped 23% to £66.6 million, while the annual dividend was left unchanged at 8.28p per share. Tough conditions in Nigeria hurt performance. Fevertree said that it expects full-year results to be ‘comfortably ahead’ of forecasts, as earnings rose 35% to £34 million for the first half. Revenue was up 45% at £104.2 million.  Featured Video from IGTV
      Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  21. JamesIG
    Fear of an increase in protectionism from the United States causes Asian equity markets to dip. Profit warnings rise 29% quarter on quarter to 58 FTSE listed companies. Retail sector leads the way, and its expected the earnings shall continue due to uncertainty in the future. Brexit secretary Raab says that the ‘no deal’ option is still on the table. GBP opened marginally down, but came back and has now gained from the Friday close. G20 central bank leaders have warned that global economic growth risks have increased on the back of geopolitical tensions and trade war fears. Oil falls on the back of concerns on reduced fuel demand and a knock on to manufacturing.  Thursdays ECB meeting is likely to be the primary event in the spotlight this week, however even then it’s likely to be a low key release. Current data suggests that things are performing as expected, so at best we’re likely to see Draghi express his satisfaction at his staffs predictions.  
    Asian overnight: Market jitters have continued into this week, with a strong selloff in the Nikkei 225 highlighting the strengthening Yen coming thanks to its role as a haven. The session was largely mixed, with gains in China and Hong Kong offsetting some of the losses from the Japanese and Australian regions. The weekend’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central governors saw continued worries over the impact of current trade tensions on the global growth picture. 
    UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet start to the week on the economic calendar sees eyes turn to eurozone concerns, with the Bundesbank monthly report and consumer confidence from the eurozone. The US markets will be looking towards US existing home sales figure, following on last week’s disappointing building permits and housing starts figures. The earnings season ramps up, with today’s earnings from Alphabet representing the first heavy hitter to keep an eye out for.
    South Africa: Global markets are trading mixed this morning, with US futures marginally lower, Australia and Japanese Indices trading firmly lower, while China and Hong Kong indices trade positive on the day. The Jse Top 40 Index is expected to trade marginally lower on open as it tempers strong gains from the end of last week. Miners in Australia are trading lower this morning with BHP Billiton down 1.4%, expectant of a similar start for locally listed resource counters today. Tencent Holdings is down 1.75% on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similarly weak start for major holding company Naspers, which has a 20% weighting on the Top 40 Index. Today's economic calendar is relatively empty although markets will find guidance from earnings reports. South African banks are expected to release earnings updates in the week. 
    Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

    1.30pm – US Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (June): forecast to rise to 0.4 from -0.15. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July, flash): forecast to fall to -2.3 from -0.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses
    3pm – US existing home sales (June): expected to rise 1.5% MoM from -0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
    Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
    The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are looking to join forces to provide a shared streaming service with all content in one place. This comes as Ofcom recently reported a decline in people watching traditional broadcasts, as well as a decline in spending on original content, over on demand paid services such as Netflix. Ryanair said that net profit fell to €319 million for Q1, although revenue was up 9% to €2.08 billion. Net margins dropped 6 percentage points to 15%. Lower fares, the lack of an Easter half, and higher oil and pilot costs all hit performance. Full-year guidance was left unchanged. BHP Billiton said that it intended to defend a claim against the group in Australia relating to the Samarco dam failure.  Hammerson has exchanged contracts for the sale of two retail parks for a total consideration of £164 million. The total sale price is at a 10% discount to the 2017 book value.  Anglo American Platinum (SA) Interim results showed headline earnings per share of 1282c, a significant increase from the 285c achieved in the comparable interim period last year. Harmony Gold (SA) has announced that it has exceeded annual FY18 production. Featured Video from IGTV
      Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Markets

Forex

Indices

Shares

Other markets

IG services

Spread betting

CFD trading

Share dealing

Trading platforms

Web platform

Trading apps

Advanced platforms

Compare features

About Us

How we support you

What we do with your money

How does IG make money?

Professional trading

Contact us

Post topic on Community

Browse Help and Support

Education on Academy

Tweet us @IGClientHelp

UK

IG | Sitemap | Terms and agreements | Privacy | How to fund | Cookies | About IG

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading involves risk.

The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs bought through a share dealing account, a stocks and shares ISA or a SIPP can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

CFD accounts provided by IG Markets Ltd, spread betting provided by IG Index Ltd and share dealing and stocks and shares ISA accounts provided by IG Trading and Investments Ltd. IG is a trading name of IG Markets Ltd (a company registered in England and Wales under number 04008957), IG Index Ltd (a company registered in England and Wales under number 01190902) and IG Trading and Investments Ltd (a company registered in England and Wales under number 11628764). Registered address at Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2YA. IG Markets Ltd (Register number 195355), IG Index Ltd (Register number 114059) and IG Trading and Investments Ltd (Register number 944492) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States, Belgium or any particular country outside the UK and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

© 2003 - 2020

IG | Terms and agreements (UK) | Privacy (UK) | Cookies | Investors | Careers | Marketing partnership

×
×
  • Create New...
us