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About JJP

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  1. JJP


    Interesting analysis. I wonder if AUD can maintain its strength given how low the Australian interest rate is. With no carry trade benefit and the economy in the biggest contraction for the last 30 years, I feel it does not currently offer a good expectation of return. However, as you say, it is very buoyant. Maybe the speculative market is mistaking general dollar weakness for risk on sentiment.
  2. Currently you cannot short certain stocks because around the world the various stock markets, central banks, government authorities and regulators banned shorting unless you actually hold the underlying asset as part of dealing with negative market volatility during the Covid-19 crisis. These rulings apply regardless of what instrument you trade. To short one of these controlled stocks you have to demonstrate that you hold the actual stock and are actually hedging, not shorting. If you look on the internet, you will find that each country and stock market lists those companies that cannot be short traded
  3. JJP


    6 days later and it could be that we are on the way. Does the market still feel buoyant after the Chancellor's Summer Economic Update? I went long today and immediately lost 30 points before restoring. I hate long term trading. Back to scalping for me. :-)
  4. 🙂 I am sure that is an Elliott wave bat, or giraffe or something
  5. Here is an old quote. “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes... and one of my all time heroes of economics.
  6. JJP


    Hi. I agree with Caseynotes, except that, in addition, I also feel there may be a little optimism for the pound as well. Two consecutive days up, and going up today also. Has broken up through the down channel from the 10 June. There is a slight buoyancy in the market I think from a belief that a Brext deal can be reached before the end of the summer and that a widely available Covid-19 vaccine may be within reach too. I think the Europeans are beginning to realize that a no deal is actually quite bad for them, especially given where the Euro is economically. Therefore, they may be more accommodating of the UK trade deal terms. I feel this has also added to the strengthening of the pound in this week. On the down side, Britain just picked an argument with China over Hong Kong. Covid-19 will come back to bite as we open up the economy (look at Leicester) and the EU has announced that it is bracing itself for a no deal with the UK. I wouldn't accept that the pound is in a proper upward trajectory until it broke above 1.285, and then 1.35. Let's see what US NFP brings and the outlook for the US economy.
  7. I'm a scalper, and so it is important to get out early in both a win and a loss situation. Especially when markets are as bouncy as they are at the moment. I take half profit at Target 1 and move SL to breakeven. My expectancy is that a winning trade will average 2.4*R, so I normally fully close the trade at 2*R. If I am going to leave it running in the hope for more, then I move the SL up to 3 pips under the 3rd bar back from the current price. My strategy gives me at least two entry opportunities every day, so I don't mind getting stopped out in profit.
  8. JJP


    Sorry for not being on the forum in a while. I tried it in October / November... just a simple question, could you use a 0-1, 1-2 wave movement to predict a 2-3, 3-4 and 4-5 wave movement. I used Fib numbers to predict the last 3 waves once the first two were formed. I made a very small long in October after the first up day of wave 3. I can't be bothered to calculate all those bats and butterflies and flying donkeys or whatever. I think it was simply luck that this followed the plot I had made. You can see that from time to time it deviates. I have not traded Elliot waves since.
  9. JJP


    But, I'm staying out as I traded the Elliot Wave from September 2019, and now I think it lacks direction. I feel like it is thrashing around because of the Covid-19 repercussions and waiting for a Brexit answer before setting off on a new trend.
  10. JJP


    So, it went up first:
  11. In addition to all the great education sites already pointed out (definitely do those free courses, you don't have to pay for a course, lie the one on babypips.com), have a look at these: https://www.fxstreet.com/ - great for economic calendar and historic price ranges based on previous data news releases and variation of data released from market expectations... this is the real money maker in FX. The market generally only moves in a predictable direction if it has a reason to. https://tradingeconomics.com/ - great for a comparison of all economic indicators across countries https://www.dailyfx.com/ - great for finding out where all the other IG traders have placed their bets. It takes contrary positions to the majority of IG traders on the basis that most people lose, so bet the other way to the majority. https://www.tradingview.com/ - great for making sure that you are getting a price, comparable with other providers
  12. IG, What is going on. There are candle sticks missing from the charts, and other glitches. This mornings example. 5 min chart GBPUSD between 5:25 and 07:00. To other readers, could someone please check their charts for GBPUSD and confirm whether this is a platform issue, or just IG failing to provide my profile with data. Thank you
  13. Common settings include the 200, 100, 50 and 20 SMA/EMA. Most traders will use these to analyse trend on longer time frame charts. I like 9 and 21 on a 5 min chart. But, I never have been able to make a cross over strategy work consistently within my risk parameters. Try plugging in the fib numbers on different time frames and back testing that. It's as good an approach as any cross over strategy.
  14. If you are using spread betting, then it depends on the leverage ratio of the asset you are trading and the risk amount per point you are proposing to trade. For example, a 50p per point trade on EURUSD requires £187.95 of margin, plus surplus in the account to cope with the trade going into a loss making position. So if you started with £250, made a trade on EURUSD for 50p per point. The trade goes against you and you start loosing. Unless you close the trade before your account is depleted to £187.95, you will get a margin call. That is a request to top up your account or IG will close the position for you. At 50p per point and £250 in the account, if you set a stop loss of 20 points in each trade, you could loose 6 times in a row before you would get a margin call on your 7th trade. Of course, as a retail trader, I think that you are protected by new regulation which means that IG will never let your account run into a negative amount.