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Q4 earnings season – first annual decline in earnings since 2020 expected


MongiIG

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Expectations for earnings season remain muted at best, and a combination of slowing consumer spending and higher prices mean US companies could see their profit margins squeezed.

SharesSource: Bloomberg
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 January 2023 

Stocks brace themselves for earnings season

Q4 reporting season begins this week, and for the first time in over two years a full-blown decline in earnings is expected. Earnings are expected to fall 4.1%, the weakest figure since the third quarter of 2020.

Seven out of the eleven sectors in the index are expected to report an annual decline in earnings, with the consumer discretionary, communications and materials sectors leading the declines.

Recession fears remain strong

Weaker demand and cost pressures across a host of sectors mean that recession fears continue to run high. While economic data has yet to turn particularly negative, there are perhaps signs of weakness in the economy, most notably from the latest ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the US.

This dropped into contraction territory for December for the first time since May 2020, and at 49.6 was the lowest reading for the PMI figure outside of the Covid-19 pandemic period. While one data point is not sufficient to indicate that a recession is unavoidable, it is a warning sign that the US economy faces a rocky period in the road ahead.

S&P 500 continues to struggle to hold gains

While indices in many parts of the world have begun the year in bullish form, the S&P 500 continues to struggle.

The index remains well below its November and December highs around 4100, and while it rallied at the end of last week, it failed to hold gains above the 50-day SMA on 9 January.

For the moment the price is holding the 3800 area as support, but a move below this brings 3700 and then 3600 into play as potential downside targets. Buyers will need a move above the 200-day SMA to open the path to a more bullish view that might see the price test the 4100 highs from last month.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime

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      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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