Battle with Covid is over ?

[786Trader]

Talk about exuberance. (Oft used word like unprecedented). Dow is steaming up to 27000 and heading north. The battle with Covid is over then. It is beaten and normal service will resume directly. Next stop all time high? Forget about the bad news. It's only going to get better and better and everything is going to turn out rosy. Lovely jubbly.

Moderna's results are encouraging, it is true, but not categoric, peer reviewed or tested on more than 48 fit test subjects.  Otherwise, the situation remains the same. One supposes that if one were to no longer test, then the virus will simply disappear, as no one would have it because no one has been tested for it. Brilliant logic and an especially good recipe for rampant, uncontrolled, unmonitored communal spread. What's a few hundred thousand deaths of vulnerable people matter anyway? It's the bottom line that counts, surely?

Then there is the matter unemployment and the 30 million still receiving unemployment cheques (soon to be stopped). They will all be instantly be re-employed, of course. As for the debts, it's only debt and we can always print more money to pay for and buy more debt. Those in arrears can have their debt purchased by repo's and start again, unless it's lots of debt, then we'll bail 'em out. Fantastic.  Win win on the money-go-round. 

Obviously, pre Covid, say Feb 2020, assets and equities were hugely under-priced. Tech is still massively under-valued. Isn't it? Tesla may even make a profit proving its market cap @$220 billion. Cheap at the price!

We have won the battle with Covid, it is done and won and a big V for victory for the markets.

As you can tell it is day 6 of my not drinking and I am hallucinating, cannot tell fact from desire and am selectively, blind, deaf and have a factual reality by-pass. It would appear I am not alone.

One thing to note, it sure is interesting. Defiantly not a bubble waiting to pop. Absolutely not a bubble. Exuberance warranted. 

Must be time for a trade war with China then.

 

 

 

[RANZ]

I don't think so battle is over, markets are just always forward looking, it's just the volatility. Tomorrow indices can be 100s of point lower just to rise again! 

[786Trader]

Forgive me, sarcasm is the lowest form of wit. Battle is surely not over. Markets simply overreact. In the case of the Dow massively. 

 

[786Trader]

I suggest the Dow may have made a crest@27150. It could go higher, but more likely a retreat to saner levels is my position. Sell on the  peaks, buy on the dips n'est pas?

[Guest Karma]

I think its gonna end badly covid 19 is not over, Trump's war of words with China is well badly timed at best and what goes up must come down. I'm shorting.

[RANZ]

Well, I did understand your sarcasm , was just trying to make it little lighter, but do you know where the peak is?

[THT]

Everyone who takes the markets seriously tries to find the times that turns happen

I would absolutely recommend studying Time Cycles - you can't do monthly turns but March 2020 was known about for years in-advance - for me anyway TC's help me to understand the appearance of irrationality into rational reasoning