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HMB

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finally shorting this mother of all ponzis.  whole freakin' world struggling with finding answers to climate change, and the world's richest owner of a company that wouldn't be profitable without selling carbon credits, and TARP-rescued BNYM, got nothing better to do then to fire up this to-the-scale-of-a-mid-sized-country energy-consuming bubble in a pseudo-replacement of the global payment system?  as if bank transfers were the issue of our financial architecture...?

there's a bit too much fantasy priced into this bitc(h) of a rip(ple)-off after recent run for my taste.  and maybe resistance forming in high fourty thousands (FOURTY THOUSAND - JEEZ...!)

wish I had the **** for a larger position and a wider stop.  will buy Tesla-short shorts and some tulips from the profits..

bitchcoin.thumb.png.c8aa21fa0346a4dc7a209448ae1a40e9.png

 

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Good luck, you're braver than me. BTC isn't about replacing the worlds financials at this point - the question is will people continue to see it as a decent hedge against inflation and store of value. The price doubles if the S&P500 decide to put 1% of their cash in. Tesla are not the first, nor are they the only company putting some money into bitcoin. 

I'd be veeeeery cautious here - but your money and your life so you do you :)

 

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Yes, high probability of further inflows.  Morgan Stanley, and Dalio reportedly considering some  - among others.  Agree that this might as well quadruple BTC to hit Minerd's expectation.

Nevertheless, I see huge downside risks - e.g. regulatory, not least due to the waste of energy.  I doubt there will be significant, lasting consumer-price inflation in the foreseeable future - I'm with Powell on that.  We'll have more asset-price inflation, more hunt for yield - and Bitcoin doesn't provide any, or as Grantham put it, the value of Bitcoin's future discounted cash flows is nil.

Plus, while I'm with you that at the moment the potential role as a system-crash hedge is likely not buyers' main point, I trust in people thinking this through as well, eventually:  yes, fractional reserve banking has its risks, but what will happen when we all have our savings in Bitcoin and the price has stabilized somewhere?  we'll start lending out what we don't need for interest...  and soon someone will come up with the idea that it is quite unlikely that all their BTC lenders will want their money back at the same time, and find higher yielding things to do with borrowed BTCs... Then we will have a leveraged BTC banking system.  Like the fiat-money based one we have now.  Just not so well regulated and secured.... I wait for that thought settling in people's minds and the system-crash value getting priced out. 

However, you're completely right about the danger, and my position is tiny, and I don't see that change, and wouldn't recommend large exposures to anyone.

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Obviously this hit my stop today.  Staying out for now - waiting till the institutional money has flown in...  Actually, think a new NDX narrative might emerge with TSLA intrinsic values etc appreciating with their BTC holdings...    

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  • 1 month later...

Call this is a biased post - but I hated Bitcoin before I went short - so with this disclosure, let me just repeat some "fundamentals" to add to above math...:  imagine you missed the opportunity to take part in the unwinding of the greatest spoof in history...  how would you explain that to your grand kids..?

 

In times of drastically increasing climate change concerns, out of lack of trust in their democratic institutions, people of the developed world put their money voluntarily into an unregulated pseudo asset, administered by "miners" who no one knows, which reside mostly in a country run by a totalitarian regime, which already started to shut them down for excessive energy consumption, and with a legal system which is at best obscure to the average Bitcoin "investor", who most likely doesn't even know a single symbol of their language?

 

You couldn't make that up.

 

Masses fooled once again by a conflicted interest bunch who (for more than a decade) have been drawing on the US inflation narrative - while 30 year USD real yields stand at a grotesque seven basis points.  Fiat currency debasement - my ****!

 

Congrats to the Coinbase insiders who sold shortly after the IPO.

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45 minutes ago, HMB said:

Call this is a biased post - but I hated Bitcoin before I went short - so with this disclosure, let me just repeat some "fundamentals" to add to above math...:  imagine you missed the opportunity to take part in the unwinding of the greatest spoof in history...  how would you explain that to your grand kids..?

 

In times of drastically increasing climate change concerns, out of lack of trust in their democratic institutions, people of the developed world put their money voluntarily into an unregulated pseudo asset, administered by "miners" who no one knows, which reside mostly in a country run by a totalitarian regime, which already started to shut them down for excessive energy consumption, and with a legal system which is at best obscure to the average Bitcoin "investor", who most likely doesn't even know a single symbol of their language?

 

You couldn't make that up.

 

Masses fooled once again by a conflicted interest bunch who (for more than a decade) have been drawing on the US inflation narrative - while 30 year USD real yields stand at a grotesque seven basis points.  Fiat currency debasement - my ****!

 

Congrats to the Coinbase insiders who sold shortly after the IPO.

"Bitcon" maximalists don't realise that bitcon's greatest achievement is giving governments the tools to be able to track their citizens, with the same tech they think guarantees their freedom...

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1 minute ago, Rintel said:

Masses fooled once again by a conflicted interest bunch who (for more than a decade) have been drawing on the US inflation narrative - while 30 year USD real yields stand at a grotesque seven basis points.  Fiat currency debasement - my ****!

The never ending hyper inflation story. I remember Juliet Declerque writing a report about how the US will become a vassal state to China, because treasury yields blahblah blah inflation blah blah.

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11 hours ago, HMB said:

Call this is a biased post - but I hated Bitcoin before I went short - so with this disclosure, let me just repeat some "fundamentals" to add to above math...:  imagine you missed the opportunity to take part in the unwinding of the greatest spoof in history...  how would you explain that to your grand kids..?

 

In times of drastically increasing climate change concerns, out of lack of trust in their democratic institutions, people of the developed world put their money voluntarily into an unregulated pseudo asset, administered by "miners" who no one knows, which reside mostly in a country run by a totalitarian regime, which already started to shut them down for excessive energy consumption, and with a legal system which is at best obscure to the average Bitcoin "investor", who most likely doesn't even know a single symbol of their language?

 

You couldn't make that up.

 

Masses fooled once again by a conflicted interest bunch who (for more than a decade) have been drawing on the US inflation narrative - while 30 year USD real yields stand at a grotesque seven basis points.  Fiat currency debasement - my ****!

 

Congrats to the Coinbase insiders who sold shortly after the IPO.

Refreshed the Model at 4:30 am this morning. Plus it has now reached the low end of its trading range. Statistically you actually now want to be buying the dip. 958658562_BTCstationary.png.a49adf33328ac89d1365fb0ed4938362.png

1840468512_Screenshot2021-04-19at07_46_18.png.9111683082c073c4b194005abf34d5c7.png

Top is its volatility spread bottom is its price.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rintel said:

Refreshed the Model at 4:30 am this morning. Plus it has now reached the low end of its trading range. Statistically, you actually now want to be buying the dip. Don't know where the bottom is will need more incoming data in the days ahead.958658562_BTCstationary.png.a49adf33328ac89d1365fb0ed4938362.png

1840468512_Screenshot2021-04-19at07_46_18.png.9111683082c073c4b194005abf34d5c7.png

Top is its volatility spread bottom is its price.

   Interesting observation from the volatility spread, Notice how the peaks keep decreasing in amplitude but the troughs remain roughly in the same place ?  I think Bitcoin is getting tired. Combine that with the current economic outlook which is potentially a slow down in the economy in the second half of the year, economic slowdows= not good for speculative assets. I don't participate in the coins-space, good for trading tho. 

 

Edited by Rintel
Needed more context
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6 hours ago, Rintel said:

Refreshed the Model at 4:30 am this morning. Plus it has now reached the low end of its trading range. Statistically, you actually now want to be buying the dip.

999604110_Screenshot2021-04-19at14_16_51.png.e996c49eb349abdde08edacc865b9cfe.png

There you go..... listen to the math people...... no need to guess. 

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