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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 continue their rally

Indices have made further gains, though at a slower pace than in recent sessions, with yesterday’s US data providing more good news on inflation.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 November 2023 12:25

Dow returns to 35,000

The index is back at the 35,000 area, the highs from early September. The past three weeks have seen the market make huge gains, with no sign of a reversal yet in view. A close above 35,100 would then open the way to the July highs at 35,650. A short-term drop might find support around the 100-day SMA, or further down towards 34,000.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 hits new 2023 high

Wednesday’s session briefly saw the index touch the highest level since the beginning of 2022. The surge from the 200-day SMA has witnessed a 13% gain for the index, breaking out of the summer descending channel and opening the way to more upside in the direction of the 2022 highs towards 16,600. Short-term support might be found around 15,500, the August highs, and then down towards the 100-day SMA.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225 reaches trendline resistance

November’s rally has carried the index back to trendline resistance from the June highs. There may be some volatility around this area, which is close to the September lower high, but a close above 33,700 would open the way to the 34,000 highs of June. In the short-term, the mid-October highs around 32,500 might provide some support if a pullback develops.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq pause after three weeks of strong gains

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as earnings season draws to a close.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 November 2023 13:34

FTSE 100 nears last week’s high

Despite disappointing UK retail sales, which last week slid to their lowest level since the 2021 COVID-19 lockdown, the FTSE 100 remains on track to reach last week’s high at 7,535 amid an empty economic calendar on Monday. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,503 may act as short-term resistance on the way up but once it and the 7,535 peak have been exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,600 will be in focus. Minor support can be found around the 9 November high at 7,466. Further down lies Thursday’s 7,430 low, followed by the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369.

20112023UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 gunning for 16,000 mark

The DAX 40 continues to advance towards the psychological 16,000 mark as German October producer prices come in at -0.1% month-on-month as forecast. The index has so far seen nine consecutive days of gains and is approaching the August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 which may short-term cap. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be found at Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average at 15,664.

20112023DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 consolidates below the 15,932 July peak

The Nasdaq 100’s 12% rally off its late October low has last week briefly taken the index to slightly above its July high at 15,932, to 15,978, before consolidating amid profit taking ahead of this week’s Zoom and Nvidia earnings results. While the July and current November highs at 15,932 to 15,978 cap, Thursday’s low at 15,736 might be retested. Stronger support can be seen between the 15,628 to 15,520 early to mid-September highs. A rise above 15,978 would put the December 2021 high at 16,660 into the frame.

20112023NASDAQ-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Dow, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 continue to make gains

The Dow is at its highest level since the summer, while the Nikkei 225 is contemplating more gains to take it to a multi-decade peak, and the CAC40 has regained the 200-day moving average.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 November 2023 12:15

Dow above August and September highs

The index has surged through the 35,000 level, reaching its highest level since the end of August. The next target is the high from July around 35,680, and would mark the complete recovery of the losses sustained since the end of July. From here the February 2022 high at 35,860 is the next level to watch, and then beyond that comes 36,465 and then the 2022 high 36,954. It would need a move back below the 100-day SMA to put a more substantial dent in the overall bullish view.

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Nikkei 225 knocks on the door of June highs

Monday witnessed the index move to its highest level since the beginning of June. This puts the price above trendline resistance from the June highs, and marks a step-change after the failure to break higher seen in September. Resistance may now becomes support, and the 34,000 level beckons. Such impressive gains in the short-term may put some pressure on the index, but as with the Dow, a reversal below the 100-day SMA would be a necessary first step to dispelling the bullish view.

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CAC40 back at 200-day MA

The index has returned to the 200-day SMA for the first time since mid-September. It has been able to move and hold above the 100-day SMA, and more importantly has moved back above the 7170 area that marked resistance in September and October. This clears the way for a move towards 7400, where rallies in August and September were stalled. Some consolidation back down towards the 50-day SMA could be envisaged, and the index could still create a lower high, with a close below the 50-day SMA suggesting that sellers are in the process of reasserting control.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 consolidate ahead of Thanksgiving

Outlook on FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 as US earnings season draws to a close.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 November 2023 12:06

FTSE 100 consolidates below last week’s high

The FTSE 100’s recent attempts to reach last week’s high at 7,535 have so far failed with the index being capped by the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505 as US futures and Asian stocks mostly decline after Nvidia earnings which practically mark the end of the US earnings season ahead of Thanksgiving. While the UK blue chip index remains above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, it remains in an uptrend, though, and is more likely to revisit Friday’s 7,516 high than to revert lower. Further up beckons the current November peak at 7,535, a rise above which would target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,595. Minor support can be found around the 9 November high at 7,466 ahead of Tuesday’s 7,446 low. Further down lies Thursday’s 7,430 low, followed by the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369.

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S&P 500 advance stalls around the September peak at 4,540

The sharp rally in the S&P 500 has reached the early and mid-September highs at 4,516 to 4,540 around which it is losing upside momentum after Fed minutes showed no inclination to cut rates by next May. A minor pullback ahead of the prolonged Thanksgiving weekend may thus ensue with the mid-November high at 4,524 being revisited. Further minor support sits at the 11 September high at 4,491 and still further down around the 24 August high at 4,474. A rise above this week’s 4,557 high would put the 4,607 July high on the cards.

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Russell 2000 range trades below its 1,833 current November high

The Russell 2000, the great underperformer of US stock indices with only a 2% positive performance year-to-date, has been trading in a tight sideways range below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and last week’s high at 1,822 to 1,833 ahead of Thanksgiving. While Thursday’s low at 1,767 underpins, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact. Below it the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1,757 may also act as support, were it to be revisited. Immediate resistance can be seen at Monday’s 1,813 high. A rise above the current 1,833 high would engage the mid-September high at 1,874.

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DAX 40, Nasdaq 100 on track for fourth straight week of gains while FTSE 100 lags

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 amid low volume Thanksgiving holiday trading.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 November 2023 11:14

FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined

The FTSE 100 continues to be range bound below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505. Despite UK consumer confidence rising in November a negative bias has been seen since the start of the day. While the UK blue chip index stays above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, it remains within a gradual uptrend, targeting last Friday’s 7,516 high. If overcome, the current November peak at 7,535 will be eyed ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,589. Below Tuesday’s 7,446 low minor support can be seen around last Thursday’s low at 7,430, and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 continues to flirt with the 16,000 mark

The DAX 40 continues to play with the psychological 16,000 mark despite Germany's economy contracting 0.1% in the third quarter, reversing its 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, ahead of today's IFO business climate index. The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 continue to act as a short-term resistance zone which caps. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be made out at last Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average at 15,673.

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Nasdaq 100 consolidates below its recent near two-year high

The Nasdaq 100’s stiff rally off its late October low has this week briefly taken the index to 16,126, a level last traded in January 2022, before consolidating in low volume ahead of the prolonged Thanksgiving weekend. With US markets shut for the second half of the day, the index is expected to trade in very little volume within a tight range but remains on track for its fourth straight week of gains. The July high at 15,932 offers potential support while Monday’s 16,065 high may cap. A rise into year-end above 16,126 would put the December 2021 high at 16,660 on the map.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin week on a quiet note

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following Thanksgiving weekend.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 November 2023 11:48

FTSE 100 remains side-lined

Last week the FTSE 100 traded sideways below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505 and this week is expected to continue to do so, at least for a few more days. While the UK blue chip index stays above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, though, it remains within a gradual uptrend, targeting its recent 7,516 high. If bettered, the current November peak at 7,535 will be in focus ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,587. Below Tuesday’s 7,446 low, minor support can be seen around the mid-November low at 7,403 and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 continues to play with the 16,000 mark

The DAX 40 continues to flirt with the psychological 16,000 mark ahead of Germany’s consumer confidence data, out on Tuesday. The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 thus continue to act as a short-term resistance zone. If overcome, the early and mid-July highs at 16,187 to 16,211 would be targeted next. Minor support is seen around last Monday’s high at 15,955 and at Tuesday’s 15,880 low.

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S&P 500 consolidates below its current 4,569 November peak

The sharp November rally in the S&P 500 has lost upside momentum amid the Thanksgiving holiday with little volume being traded, something which may continue on Cyber Monday as the economic calendar looks light with US new homes sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Resistance is seen at the current November peak at 4,569 and immediate support at Wednesday’s 4,535 low. Further potential support can be spotted at the 4,524 mid-November high. Only a currently unexpected rise above the recent 4,569 high could put the July peak at 4,607 on the cards.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 look for further gains

Indices remain in strong form on the final day of November, and are looking to extend their recent gains into December.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 

Dow on the up once more

The rally has recovered this week, cancelling out expectations of at least a short-term pullback. The July highs at 35,690 are now just a short distance away, and a move back here would mark the recovery of all the summer and early Autumn losses. Above this the next target is 35,860, and then on to the record high at 36,954. Once more any hope of a pullback has been dashed, with little sign at present in price action that one is at hand. It would need a close back below 35,300 to suggest that one may be close.

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Nasdaq 100 holds around 16,000

The price is consolidating around the 16,000 level, having surpassed the July high in mid-November. For a short-term bearish view, the price would need to reverse course and head back below 15,760. This might then see a reversal towards the October highs at 15,330. Having cleared 16,000, the index’s next hurdle to the upside would be 16,630, the record highs from 2021.

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Nikkei 225 rallies off support

After dropping back towards 33,000, the index has moved higher, holding support for the time being. Renewed gains above last week’s high (33,800) once more leave the index on course to hit the June high at 34,000. Beyond this lies the 1989 high at 38,957. Sellers would need a renewed close below 33,120 to suggest a new attempt to push lower is underway.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 remain bid as inflation slows

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following a strong November.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: 

FTSE 100 ends month in positive territory

The FTSE 100 slid to 7,383 on Thursday before reversing to the upside as inflation continues to weaken in the eurozone. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,494 capped and is doing so once more on Friday morning. Once overcome, the 17 November high at 7,516 will be in focus, together with the 7,535 November high. Minor support is found at the 21 November low at 7,446.

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DAX 40 continues to surge ahead as eurozone inflations weakens

The DAX 40 continues to surge ahead as eurozone inflation came in weaker-than-expected on Thursday with the July peak at 16,532 being in sight. Minor resistance on the way up can be spotted at the 16,421 31 July low. Support below Friday’s intraday low at 16,236 is seen at Thursday’s 16,165 low. More significant support can be found between the August and September highs at 16,044 to 15,992.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 sees best November since 1980

The sharp November rally in the S&P 500 has lost upside momentum but the index nonetheless continues to trade in four-month highs as the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge came in as expected at 3% year-on-year in October. November was not only the best performing month for the S&P 500 this year but also the strongest November since 1980. Resistance is found at the November peak at 4,587, followed by the July peak at 4,607. While this week’s lows at 4,539 to 4,537 underpin, the short-term uptrend remains intact. Slightly further down sits potential support at the 4,516 mid-September high.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100 stalls while DAX 40, S&P 500 near July highs

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of this week’s US unemployment data.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: 

FTSE 100 comes off six-week high

The FTSE 100 is seen coming off last week’s six-week high at 7,543 as investors await more data this week to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,492 may be revisited, together with the early November high at 7,484. While Friday’s low at 7,466 underpins, the recent overall upside pressure should remain intact. Failure there would put the major 7,384 to 7,369 September, early October and late November lows back on the cards. Key resistance remains to be seen at the November and current December highs at 7,535 to 7,543. Above it meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,575.

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DAX 40 nears July peak

The DAX 40 continues to rally following softer German and eurozone inflation data last week. The index is getting ever closer to its 16,532 July peak around which it is likely to at least short-term stall. If not, a new all-time record high will be made. Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while no slip through Friday’s low at 16,237 is seen. Below it lies last Thursday’s 16,165 low. More significant support can be seen between the August and September highs at 16,044 to 15,992.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 approaches July high

The November advance in the S&P 500 is ongoing with the July peak at 4,607 being within reach despite US Treasury yields regaining some of their recently lost ground. Around this high, the index may short-term consolidate. Once overcome, though, the March 2022 peak at 4,637 will be in focus. Minor support can be seen at the 22 November high at 4,569 and more important support between last week’s lows at 4,539 to 4,537. Slightly further down sits support at the 4,516 mid-September high.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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Dow edges lower, while Nasdaq 100 and CAC40 mixed

While the Dow is holding on to its recent gains, the Nasdaq 100 is unable to establish a clear direction. The CAC40 has tested trendline resistance from the April highs.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 

Dow edges off highs

The index continues to trim the gains made last week, with Wednesday’s session seeing its largest drop in a month as energy stocks fell sharply thanks to fresh declines in oil prices. However, for the moment a more sustained pullback has yet to develop. Upward momentum has faded, but the price remains above the August highs. Additional gains continue to target 36,570, and then on to the record highs at 36,954.

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Nasdaq 100 fights to establish a direction

This week has seen a see-saw movement in the index; Monday’s losses were reversed by Tuesday’s gains, which were then countered by Wednesday’s drop. The price is hovering above 15,760 support, and a fresh drop below this might then see the price head back towards the 50-day simple moving average. Buyers will be looking for a close back above 16,100 to suggest that a new leg higher has begun.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

CAC40 struggles around trendline resistance

The price briefly pushed above trendline resistance from the April high yesterday, but after the huge gains since late October it is perhaps not surprising that it was unable to hold above the trendline. Like a number of other indices, the price shows no sign of slowing down or reversing – the consolidation around the 200-day SMA in mid-November seems to have been sufficient for the time being. A close back below 7350 might signal a pullback is beginning, while a close above post-April trendline resistance would then see the price target the late July high at 7526.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and CAC40 all make strong gains

The dovish tone of last night’s Fed meeting has lit a fire under indices, driving the Dow above 37,000 to a new record high and pushing the Nasdaq 100 and CAC40 higher too.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 

Dow surges through 37,000

The index shot to a record high last night, closing above 37,000 for the first time in its history. The dovish tone of the FOMC press conference provided fuel for the rally, capping a remarkable period for the index since late October. Momentum is a powerful force in markets, as we have seen since late October, and so while the price looks overextended in the short-term, we could see further gains as positive seasonality kicks in. A pullback might begin with a reversal below the previous highs at 36,954, and could then head back towards the summer highs around 35,690, but at present bearish momentum has yet to show its hand.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 targeting previous peak

For once the Nasdaq 100 is not the one leading the charge to new highs, but it has still enjoyed an impressive bounce over the past two months. It is now targeting the record highs at 16,769, with a move above this taking it into uncharted territory. As with the Dow, the index looks overstretched in the short-term, but there is little sign of a move lower at present. Some initial weakness might target 16,000, or down to the 50-day SMA (currently 15,423).

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

CAC40 hits new record

This index is pushing to new highs too, having cleared trendline resistance last week. The buyers have seized control over the past week, with any intraday weakness being seized upon as a buying opportunity. In the event of a pullback, the 7587 and then 7525 July highs would be the initial areas to watch for support.

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FTSE 100 rallies on softer inflation, DAX 40 and S&P 500 also grind higher still

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as UK inflations surprises to the downside.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: 

FTSE 100 tries to reach its September peak

The FTSE 100 is on track for its third straight day of gains and has overcome its 7,702 October high while on its way to its near three-month high at 7,725 as UK inflation comes in much lower than expected in November at 3.9% versus a forecast 4.4% and 4.6% in October. Core inflation dropped to 5.1% versus a forecast 5.6% and a previous reading of 5.7%. Above 7,725 beckons the September peak at 7,747. Potential slips should find support around Friday’s 7,670 high and at Tuesday’s 7,658 high.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 consolidates below last week’s all-time record high

The DAX 40, which led the way to its record high at around the 17,000 mark last week, is taking a back seat and consolidates roughly between 16,700 and 16,800 as German GfK consumer confidence, though better than expected, remains at -25.1 and year-on-year PPI comes in worse than expected at -7.9%. The index now trades below the October-to-December uptrend line at 16,844 which, because of inverse polarity, acts as a resistance line. While it caps, this week’s low at 16,626 might be revisited. A fall through it would eye the July peak at 16,532. Resistance is seen around the 11 December high at 16,827 and at Friday’s 16,889 high ahead of last week’s peak at 17,003.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 grinds higher still and nears its all-time record high

The S&P’s advance is ongoing with Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic’s comment over the lack of "urgency" to remove the restrictive stance being ignored by the financial markets which instead focused on Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s comments that the US was making good progress on inflation. Now that the November and mid-December 2021 highs at 4,743 to 4,752 have been bettered, the S&P 500 is approaching its all-time record high made in January 2022 at 4,817. Minor support below Monday’s 4,750 high can be spotted at last week’s 4,739 high. Further down lies the 4,694 March 2022 peak at 4,637. While the last few weeks’ lows at 4,544 to 4,537 underpin, the medium-term uptrend stays intact.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

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  • 3 weeks later...

Dow and Nikkei 225 rally, but Hang Seng slips lower again

Falling inflation expectations and Saudi Arabia’s move to cut export prices for oil meant that equities have finally found their footing after a difficult start to the year. However the Hang Seng falls once again.

Image of Hang Seng on electronic boardSource: Bloomberg
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 

Dow rallies once more

Monday saw the index rebound from the lows of the session, clawing back losses from the final two sessions of last week.

A push to new record highs may well now develop, and beyond this the 38,000 level comes into view. This cancels out a short-term negative view and revives the uptrend, albeit at a potentially overextended level.

A reversal back below 37,250 would be needed to revive the short-term negative view.

Brent Crude Oil Daily ChartSource: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225 testing recent highs

Further gains on Monday helped to lift the index back to the November highs, and now a test of 34,000 seems to beckon.

A move above 34,000 would put the index at its highest levels since 1989, and would mark the end of the extended consolidation period for the index that has been in place since the end of June.

Since last week’s low the price has gained over 3%, and it would need a close back below 33,000 to put the sellers back in charge in the short-term.

Nikkei 225 Daily ChartSource: ProRealTime

Hang Seng back on a downward path

This index has resumed its downward move, after the brief rebound in late December.

Gains faltered at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), resulting in a textbook reversal that has taken the index back towards the December lows, the lowest level since November 2022. Further declines head towards the November low at 14,640.

A revival above the 50-day SMA and 17,170, the highs of last week, would be needed to suggest a short-term rebound has begun.

Hang Seng Daily ChartSource: ProRealTime

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dow and Nikkei 225 hold steady, while Hang Seng stages a small rebound

A cautious tone continues to prevail for indices, though the Hang Seng has managed to lift itself off yesterday’s low.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 

Dow continues to track lower

A gentle pullback has continued here, with the price resuming a short-term topping pattern. A deeper retracement below 37,000 could bring the 50-day SMA into view, which would take the price to its lowest level since early December. Even this, or a deeper drop would leave the uptrend intact. Shor-term support may be found at the early 2022 highs at 36,954.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225 stabilises after Wednesday reversal

The index’s remarkable run higher stopped yesterday as the price dropped back below 36,000. The price has registered some small gains overnight, and remains close to this week’s multi-decade high. A close below 35,000 might signal that a deeper retracement has begun. In the event of a much deeper pullback, the summer highs at 34,000 come into view. A close back above 36,000 puts the buyers in charge again in the short-term.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

Hang Seng edges off 14-month low

This week saw the index plummet to its lowest level since November 2022, with disappointing Chinese GDP data adding to the tough outlook for that economy. After the steep losses earlier in the week a bounce has taken place overnight, though it remains to be seen if it can muster up additional strength towards 16,000 and the previous low. Further declines target the October 2022 low at 14,830.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100 in recovery mode while DAX 40 and S&P 500 surge ahead

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of key US data out later in the week.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Written by: Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: 

FTSE 100 in recovery mode

The FTSE 100’s gradual advance from last week’s six-week low at 7,403 on pared back rate cut expectations has been helped by mining stocks rallying as optimism over demand from China pushed iron ore prices higher. A rise above Tuesday’s 7,527 high has the mid-November and early December highs at 7,535 to 7,543 and also the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) at 7,560 to 7,565 in its sights. Minor support below Wednesday’s 7,498 intraday low sits at Tuesday’s 7,466 low ahead of the 5 December 7,459 low and last week’s 7,403 trough.

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DAX 40 resumes its ascent after Tuesday’s pause

The DAX 40 index continues its advance, having briefly paused it on Tuesday, and approaches the 8 January high at 16,785 with the more significant 11 and 15 January highs at 16,792 to 16,841 representing further upside targets ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Minor support below Wednesday’s 16,674 intraday low can be seen at Friday’s 16,657 high and then at Thursday’s high and Tuesday’s low at 16,630 to 16,623.

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S&P 500 once more trades in new record highs

The S&P 500 continues its advance into new record high territory following Netflix earnings, the first of the ‘magnificent seven’ to report, which showed a new record subscriber count in the fourth quarter, better-than-expected revenue and a strong earnings guidance for the current quarter. The psychological 5,000 mark remains in focus and may be reached over the coming weeks and months but first the minor psychological 4,900 level needs to be exceeded. Minor support sits at Monday’s 4,868 high and more significant support between Friday’s high and Tuesday’s low at 4,845 to 4,844.

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Quiet day for FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of key macro data and earnings

Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 amid Fed and BoE meetings and as five of the ‘magnificent seven’ US stocks report their earnings ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: 

FTSE 100 mixed after healthy gains last week

The FTSE 100’s gradual advance from its mid-January low at 7,403 accelerated to the upside on Friday amid rallying luxury good stocks and general risk-on sentiment with the index gaining 1.4%. Monday morning is likely to be quieter, though, as the economic calendar looks pretty empty ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meetings, earnings by five of the ‘magnificent seven’ US stocks and US employment data. A rise above Friday’s 7,653 high would engage the 11 January high at 7,694. Minor support comes in around the 12 December 7,609 high and at the 16 January 7,587 high.

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DAX 40 mixed after five consecutive days of gains

The DAX 40 index continues its advance towards its December record high around the 17,000 mark as investors look forward to a packed macro and earnings week. The January uptrend line at 16,872 may act as support, together with the 11 January high at 16,841 whereas the December-to-January resistance line at 16,966 and last week’s high at 16,969 should act as resistance ahead of the December 17,003 peak.

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S&P 500 consolidates below last week’s record highs

The S&P 500 is seen trading close to last week’s record highs made marginally above the 4,900 mark as investors await earnings by the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft which are likely to provide additional volatility. A rise above last week’s 4,907 record high may engage the psychological 5,000 mark. Minor support below the Tuesday 23 high at 4,877 comes in at Friday’s 4,871 low.

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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 resume their march higher

Indices have made gains once more, though US indices face a major test with big tech earnings, a Fed decision and payrolls data all happening this week.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 

Dow hits new record

The index sits at a new record high, having made further gains on Monday. This marks a continuation of the breakout from 19 January, taking the index further into new territory. Recent weakness from mid-December found buyers at 37,100, so in the short-term any weakness may find support around this level. A deeper retracement may develop if the index closes below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

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Nasdaq 100 steady ahead of tech earnings

Monday saw the index head back towards last week’s record high, maintaining the leg higher from the early January low. Trendline support from early January could come into play in the event of a push back towards 17,000. Below this the 16,630 support area and then the 50-day SMA come into view. This week could see some volatility return, given the presence of earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Amazon on the calendar.

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Nikkei 225 turns higher

The new week saw the Nikkei 225 move higher, recouping some of the losses suffered over the past week. Should a new higher low have been formed, then a resumption of the move higher will target 37,000. A close above this then leaves the 1990 high at 38,951 as the last area of potential resistance currently. Short-term weakness targets the mid-January low around 35,340.

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 side-lined while S&P 500 trades in record highs

Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 as major company earnings by the ‘magnificent seven’ are out of the way.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined

The FTSE 100 is stuck in its 7,690 to 7,600 sideways trading range, the break out of which may well determine the next minor trend. A fall through last week’s 7,600 low would lead to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,592 being eyed, below which meanders the 200-day SMA at 7,550. Minor resistance can be found at last Tuesday’s 7,641 low above which lies last week’s high at 7,690. A rise above 7,690 and the 11 January high at 7,694 would likely target the mid-October high at 7,702. Further up the July and September highs can be seen at 7,723 to 7,747. As long as last week’s low at 7,600 underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

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DAX 40 dips but tries to regain lost ground

The DAX 40 index dipped to its January-to-February uptrend line at 16,856 in overnight trading before recovering some lost ground and heading back up to its Monday 16,943 high. Above it beckon the mid-December and early February record highs at 17,003 to 17,020. Above 17,020 lies the 17,100 mark which may be reached next. This high will be eyed provided no bearish reversal to below last Thursday’s low at 16,782 is seen. Support above that low sits at Friday’s 16,889 low.

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S&P 500 trades in new record highs

The S&P 500 continues to steam ahead and is fast approaching its psychological 5,000 mark around which it is expected to at least short-term lose upside momentum. Slips should find support around last Monday and Tuesday’s 4,931 high ahead of Friday’s 4,905 low. Slightly further down sits solid support between Tuesday’s 4,899 low and the 4,903 late January high.

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FTSE 100 struggles while DAX and Dow hold steady

The FTSE 100 remains under pressure in early trading, while both the Dax and Dow hold on near their previous highs.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 under pressure

The index has fallen back for several days, retreating from 7700 and the lower high of early February. Having broken above trendline resistance from the 2023 highs during the course of late January, the price may now retest the broken trendline from above. This would also coincide with the 200-day simple moving average (ISMA). A recovery above 7600 might yet signal that a low has been formed. Additional declines target the late January low at 7400, and below this down towards 7250 and the support zone that lasted throughout 2023.

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DAX holds near 17,000

The Dax continues to consolidate around 17,000, but remains above trendline support from the October low. Mid-January weakness found buyers at the 50-day SMA, and in the short-term a push to a fresh record high seems likely. A near-term retracement requires a close back below the 50-day SMA to open the path to January’s low at 16,345, with some possible support before this at the previous record high of 16,532.

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Dow drifts through trendline support

In what might be seen as a portentous development, the Dow is testing support from the mid-January low. In the short-term, further weakness could follow, potentially clearing the way to another test of the previous highs at 37,825. Below this lies the 50-day SMA, and then down to 37,125, the lows of December.

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FTSE 100 probes resistance while DAX and Nikkei consolidate below last week’s highs

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nikkei 225 as earnings season is coming to an end and US markets are shut for President’s Day.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 flirts with resistance zone

The FTSE 100’s swift rally off last week’s 7,464 low amid positive earnings, softer UK inflation and much stronger-than-expected retail sales and despite the country slipping into a technical recession, has taken the index to 7,722, a near six-week high on Friday. This level remains in play on Monday which is likely to be a quiet one as US markets are shut for its President’s day. Minor support below the psychological 7,000 mark is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,618.

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DAX 40 retraces lower from last week’s record high

The DAX 40 index is seen coming off last week’s record high at 17,197 and nears Friday’s 17,060 low. If it were to give way, at least a minor top would be formed with the early February high at 17,020 being back in sight, together with the psychological 17,000 mark. Minor resistance above Monday’s 17,109 intraday high can be found at Thursday’s 17,123 high.

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The Nikkei 225 consolidates below its 34-year high

The Nikkei 225’s swift ascent to last week’s 34-year high at 38,876 is taking a breather as the index is short-term consolidating. A rise above 38,876 would put the 1989 all-time record high at 38,957 and also the psychological 40,000 mark on the cards. Slips may find support at Friday’s 38,239 low, a slip through which would put the minor 38,000 mark back on the cards.

19022024NIKKEI-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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CAC 40, DAX 40 and Dow trade in record highs but may short-term consolidate

Outlook on Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and DAX 40 ahead of this week’s German and US inflation reports.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

The Nikkei 225 consolidates below last week’s record high

Last week’s swift ascent in the Nikkei 225 has taken it to a new record high, above that seen 34 years ago, with the psychological 40,000 mark remaining in focus. Increased foreign investment and signs of sustained profit growth among Japanese companies could lead to the 40,000 level being reached as there remains potential for significant additional foreign funds to enter Japan's stock market. However, risks such as China's economic fluctuations, potential yen strengthening, and changes in the Bank of Japan's policy could impact the index's upward trajectory. On Monday a minor retracement lower is taking the Nikkei 225 back towards its 1989 previous record high at 38,957. Below it the mid-February high and the February uptrend line at 38,876 to 38,860 should offer support. While last week’s low at 38,104 underpins, the medium-term bullish uptrend remains intact.

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FTSE 100 awaits MPC member speeches

The FTSE 100’s recovery from last week’s 7,623 low amid strong earnings by the likes of Anglo American and Rolls-Royce and has so far taken it to 7,717 on Friday, a level from which it is currently slipping back. It’ll need to be exceeded for last Tuesday’s 7,750 six-week high to be back in focus. Further up lurks the 7,769 December peak. Minor support below Monday’s 7,689 low sits at Friday’s 7,675 low ahead of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Wednesday’s low at 7,634 to 7,623.

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DAX 40 stalls slightly below Thursday’s record high

The DAX 40 index’s swift rally to a new record high close to the 17,500 mark on Thursday is taking a breather as investors look forward to German inflation data out on Thursday. Minor support below Friday’s 17,356 low is only seen around the mid-February 17,197 high. Above the current record high at 17,448 lies the 18,000 region.

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Dow and Nasdaq 100 ease back while Hang Seng bounce hits a wall

US indices continue to tiptoe lower after last week’s highs, while the Hang Seng’s bounce from the January lows is coming under pressure.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

Dow drifts down

The index continues to edge lower, surrendering some of yesterday’s recovery from the lows. In the short-term, we may finally see a test of the still-rising 50-day simple moving average, something that has not happened since the rally began in October. Before this the price may find support at the rising trendline from mid-January. Should this see a bounce develop, then the previous highs at 39,287 come into play, and could clear the way for a test of 40,000.

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Nasdaq 100 edges down to trendline support

Like the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 is easing back from its recent highs, though the declines here are even more muted. Potential trendline support from early January comes into play near 17,600, while below this is the 50-day SMA and last week’s low at 17,320.

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Hang Seng under pressure as rally fades

Those waiting for a fresh leg lower in this index’s ongoing downtrend will have been pleased to see the sharp drop on Wednesday that culminated at a close almost at the lows and back below the 100-day SMA. Further losses below last week’s low at 16,065 would reinforce the bearish view and suggest that the downtrend is back in play, targeting the lows of January at 14,755. Bulls will want to see a close back above 16,900 to indicate that the index is continuing its counter-trend bounce.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100 stalls as Nikkei 225, S&P 500 hit yet more record highs

Outlook on FTSE 100, Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 ahead of Powell testimony and US labour data.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

The Nikkei 225 made yet another record high above the 40,000 mark

The Nikkei 225 has once more topped the psychological 40,000 mark, having already done so on Friday, boosted by tech/AI stocks like Tokyo Electron amid a shift towards tech nearshoring and foreign funds leaving Chinese stock markets for Japanese ones. However, risks such as China's economic fluctuations, potential yen strengthening, and changes in the Bank of Japan's policy could impact the index's upward trajectory as could the currently highly overbought levels of the index. A minor retracement lower may take the Nikkei 225 back towards its 23 February high at 39,638 below which lies the 1989 previous record high at 38,957.

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FTSE 100 is finding it difficult to reach the 7,710 to 7,769 region

The FTSE 100’s recovery from last week’s 7,596 low is finding it difficult to reach the early February high at 7,710. This level and the 23 February high at 7,717 need to be exceeded for the more significant 7,750 to 7,769 resistance area to be reached. It consists of the December-to-February highs. Minor support sits between Friday’s low and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,645 to 7,640.

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S&P 500 makes yet another record high

The S&P 500 surged higher again towards the end of last week and came close to the 5,150 region, hitting yet another record high ahead of this week’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony and US labour data. Further up lies the 5,200 zone while support can be spotted around the 23 February high at 5,111. Below it lies the February-to-March tentative uptrend line at 5,088.

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  • 2 weeks later...

FTSE 100 at three month highs, while Dow and Nasdaq 100 move higher despite hotter US inflation

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a solid start to the week, while even a hotter US inflation reading has not been able to stop the rally in US markets.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 back at December highs

Two days of gains have carried the price back towards the 7770 highs from December. The past two weeks have seen the index rally off 7600, establishing a higher low. The index may now continue to push higher, with a near-term target being 7800.

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Dow moves higher despite US inflation data

The stronger-than-expected US CPI reading failed to halt the Dow’s advance, with the price breaking through trendline resistance from the February highs. This could now set the stage for a move back to those record highs, and potentially higher. Support has appeared around 38,500, while below this the 50-day simple moving average has yet to be tested.

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Nasdaq 100 moves back above 18,000

The price has pushed back above 18,000, and a move to a new record seems likely. The move comes despite a higher CPI figure than expected. For the moment support from early January continues to provide an underpinning for further gains.

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DAX and S&P 500 moving higher, while Nikkei 225 pullback pauses

The Dax has hit a new record high today, and the S&P 500 isn’t too far behind, while the Nikkei 225’s retreat from its peak has paused for now.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

DAX hits a new peak

The index hit a new record high in early trading on Thursday, extending its rally and widening the gap with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). For the moment, it seems like the Dax’s steady progression higher will continue. In the short-term, trendline support from mid-February is close by, and then comes trendline support from October. A move back to the 50-day SMA would mark a 5% drop from current levels, and would feel like a dramatic event given the current gentle rally.

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S&P 500 targets new highs

Early trading has seen futures push back to record highs for the index, as the quiet rally continues once more. Indeed, this has been the case all year, and those hoping for a pullback have been continually disappointed. This will not go on for ever, but as yet there is no sign of a pullback. The price continues to trade above trendline support from both early January and the October low. If these are broken, then a pullback may develop.

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Nikkei 225 pullback halted

The pullback from the highs has been stayed for now, buyers entering around 38,300. A close back above Tuesday’s high at 39,220 might help to suggest that the pullback has run its course, though with the Bank of Japan decision next week some skittishness may persist.

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  • 1 month later...

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop on Israel retaliatory strike on Iran

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as investors fret about escalating tensions in the Middle East.

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 stabilizes following sharp out-of-hours drop

The FTSE 100 dropped like a stone to its late February high at 7,751 as Israel fired missiles at Iran in a retaliatory attack in out-of-hours trading. Even though the index still opened lower, it has so far regained the majority of its intraday losses as hopes that further escalation will not take place become more prevalent. While no rise above Thursday’s high at 7,899 is seen, though, the FTSE 100 remains under pressure and may revisit Tuesday’s low at 7,794. Minor resistance sits at the early April 7,856 low.

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DAX 40 drops to levels last seen in February

The DAX 40 fell to levels last traded in late February when it hit the 17,400 mark on Middle East escalation as Israel launched missiles at Iran. The index is trying to heave itself above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 17,715 which may act as resistance with the 17,711 low seen on Tuesday. Further resistance sits at last Friday’s 17,831 low. For the bulls to even short-term be in control again, a bullish reversal and rise above Tuesday’s high at 17,903 needs to ensue. Support is found at the 7 March 17,619 low and the 50% retracement of the mid-January to April advance.

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S&P 500 slips to two-month low

The S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive week of losses as it hit levels last traded in mid-February at 4,927 amid a retaliatory missile strike by Israel on Iran. The index is trying to remain above this low but will now have the psychological 5,000 mark to contend with which should act as resistance. Further up the mid-February high at 5,049 may also act as resistance. Below today’s intraday low at 4,927 lies the 4,920 mid-February low.

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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 make headway off recent lows

The selling in indices has stopped for now, with major markets higher after finding at least a short-term low last week.

original-size.webpSource: Getty Images
Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

Dow recovery goes on

The index continues its recovery from the lows of last week, and Monday’s session saw it move back above the 100-day simple moving average.

The flood of major earnings over the coming two weeks may mean that the index experiences a more volatile period, even if it does continue to rebound. Further gains target 39,000, which provided some resistance earlier in the month, and then on to 40,000.

A close back below 38,000 could suggest the price will head back towards 37,500, retesting last week’s low.

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Nasdaq 100 braces for big tech earnings

The pullback in the index paused yesterday, as the price reached 17,000. A small gain helped to suggest that a low may be forming.

The big tech earnings that dominate this week and next may mean that the index struggles in the short-term, though with the percentage of index members below their 20-day SMA hitting 5% last week a short-term bounce still seems likely.

A close above 17,415 and the 100-day SMA helps to build a short-term bullish view. Sellers will want to see a close back below 17,000, which could then open the way to the January low at 16,177.

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Nikkei 225 returns to 100-day SMA

As with other indices, the Nikkei 225 has seen its pullback pause over the past three sessions.

Buyers appeared last week when the index dropped below 37,000, and the index then pushed back to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would add strength to the bullish view, while the price then targets the early April highs around 39,860.

37,000 continues to hold as support for now, so a break below here is needed to put the bearish view back on track.

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Rallies in FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow have further to go

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow as investors pile back in to global stock markets.

original-size.webpSource: Getty Images
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 hits yet another record high

A weaker pound sterling and foreign investor buying of the undervalued UK blue chip index propelled the FTSE 100 to a record high on Monday. The pound sterling bouncing back following hawkish comments by BoE chief economist Huw Pill has not put a spanner in the works with the FTSE 100 hitting yet another record high and remaining on track for its fourth straight day of gains.

Minor support sits between the early-to-mid-April highs at 8,046 to 8,017.

Medium-term the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the March-to-June 2020 advance, projected higher from the October 2020 low, around the 8300 mark represents a possible upside target.

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DAX 40 regains lost ground

The DAX 40’s strong rally off last week’s 17,400 low has gained traction and is trying to overcome last week’s high at 18,195. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the 8 April high at 18,329 will be in focus, together with the 4 April high at 18,429.

Minor support can be spotted around the 5 April low at 18,085 and around the psychological 18,000 level.

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Dow sees strong three straight day rally

Since last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average regained lost ground and has risen by around 3% with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 38,783 representing the next upside target, together with the 10 April high at 39,029.

Potential slips may find support around the 38,452 March low and further down, around the late February 38,336 low.

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Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 drop back as Hang Seng continues to rally

US indices are struggling in the wake of Meta’s earnings last night, but the Hang Seng is showing fresh strength.

original-size.webpSource: Getty Images
Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

Nasdaq 100 rally torpedoed by Meta earnings

The index reversed course yesterday, giving back most of the gains made on Tuesday, as earnings from Meta soured sentiment.

The price remains well above last week’s low for the time being, but with more earnings from Big Tech due in the coming week, further upward progress may be difficult. So long as the price holds above last week’s low at 16,970 then a bounce may yet materialise. A close back above 17,700 would help to bolster the bullish view.

Alternately, a close back below 16,970 will bring the late 2021 high at 16,630 into play, and then on down to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

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S&P 500 stumbles on tech earnings

This index also took a knock on Wednesday, though it continues to look like it has created a higher low.

A push back above the highs of the week so far at 5093 would mark a bullish development, and would open the way to the 50-day SMA, and then on to the highs from late March at 5274.

Sellers will want to see a reversal back below the 100-day SMA and below last week’s low at 4925 to provide a more bearish view.

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Hang Seng surges through key level

This index has seen an impressive bounce from the lows of mid-April, which has caried it above 17,000 and the 200-day SMA. It has also succeeded in closing above the latter, for the first time since July.

If the price can manage a close above 17,200, then this will be a significant development. 17,200 was the high from early January, and also the peak of March and April, as well as being support from early November.

Further gains target the November 2023 high around 18,300. A reversal back below the 200-day SMA would be needed to put more of a dent in the bullish view.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100 hits yet another record high while DAX 40 and S&P 500 resume their ascents

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid strong US earnings.

original-size.webpSource: Getty Images
Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London
 
Publication date: 

FTSE 100 hits yet another record high

Foreign investor buying of the undervalued UK blue chip index led to further gains in the FTSE 100 which is trading at yet another record high. The 8,200 zone is now in focus, above which lies the 8,300 mark which is where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the March-to-June 2020 advance, projected higher from the October 2020 low, can be found.

Support sits between the early-to-mid-April highs and Wednesday’s low at 8,046 to 8,003.

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DAX 40 recovers from Thursday’s low

The DAX 40 was dragged lower by its US counterparts following the release of much weaker-than-expected preliminary Q1 GDP data but overnight recovered on better-than-expected US earnings.

A rise above Thursday’s 18,080 high would engage this week’s high at 18,238 ahead of the 18,500 region.

Yesterday’s low was made along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 17,815.

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S&P 500 resumes its ascent

The S&P 500 resumes its ascent, having on Thursday slipped to 4,990 on disappointing US Q1 preliminary GDP data, before recovering on strong earnings by the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft and Snap.

The index is heading towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) 5,114 above which the April downtrend line can be seen at 5,146.

Slips may find support can be seen around Monday’s 5,039 high.

original-size.webpSource: ProRealTime

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