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Mixed start to the week for FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500

Indices moved higher on Friday, particularly in the US, but a quiet start to the week has left markets becalmed.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 January 2023 

FTSE 100 pushes back towards 7800

The index fell back last week from its four-year highs, but recovered on Friday to push back towards 7790.

A fresh push higher puts the 7900 level into view, with the May 2018 high at 7903 just beyond it. Friday’s recovery seems to leave the bullish view intact, though the price still remains overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7541.

A move back below 7700 signals a deeper retracement, heading towards the 50-day SMA.

FTSE_230123.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX flat in early trading

A modest drop on Thursday was mostly reversed on Friday, leaving the January bounce intact.

If the bulls can sustain this momentum into the new week then a push towards 15,200 and higher seems likely, with a higher low established, if only after a small retracement.

Sellers might want to see further declines, but even a move back to 14,500 would leave the bounce intact.

DAX_230123.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rebounds above 200-day MA

Friday saw the price rebound above the 200-day SMA, negating the bearish view that had developed over the past week.

The rally on Friday saw the index recoup losses that had marked a retreat from 4000, and stunted a bearish move that seemed to suggest a move back to 3770 was in the offing. Now the buyers need to push on above 4000 to suggest another attempt to retake the December highs above 4100 can begin.

A reversal below 3880 puts the bearish view back into the ascendant again.

SPX_230123.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq at risk of another move lower

The FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq look to be at risk of a bearish turn, despite surprisingly positive PMI data in Europe.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023 

FTSE rolling over in early trade

The FTSE 100 has found itself on the back foot in early trade today, with price heading lower to potentially follow up on the declines seen a week ago.

The index has enjoyed substantial gains over the course of the past month, but that appears to be coming into question here. Thursday’s rebound from the 76.4% Fibonacci support zone does highlight the importance of the 7117 support level down below. Nonetheless, it would ultimately take a break below the 7667 swing-low to bring an end to the recent uptrend.

Until then, the bears do appear to be gaining traction, with a break below last week’s low of 7724 bringing about a confirmation of the lower high and low.

UKX-4-hours-2023_01_24-08h27.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX indecision as PMI surveys bring grounds for optimism

The DAX appears to be showing signs of indecision after a period of strength that has seen price recovering much of last week’s declines.

The economic outlook for Germany has shifted somewhat thanks to the latest PMI data, with services rising back into expansion after six months of contraction. Unfortunately, the manufacturing sector remains well off the pace given the reading of 47.0, but a Chinese reopening/recovery should help things on that front.

That being said, the DAX remains off the pace, with price failing to react in either direction. There is a downside risk given the recent pullback. With price rising into the deep Fibonacci resistance zone between 15131 and 15185, there is a risk of another bearish turn from here.

A move up through the prior high of 15272 would be required to signal the continuation of this recent bullish trend. To the downside, a move back below 15022 would bring a signal of potential further weakness from here.

DAX-4-hours-2023_01_24-08h48.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq rebounds into key resistance zone

The Nasdaq has enjoyed a big boost at the start of the week, with the index rising into a five-week high and the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level.

The wider bearish trend remains in place as highlighted by the daily chart below. That remains unless we see price break out through the 12258 swing-high.

For now, the confluence of trendline, 100-day simple moving average (SMA), and Fibonacci resistance provides the basis for a potential downward turn once again.

As such, keep an eye out for whether price can push up through resistance here or begins to reverse lower once again.

NASDAQ-Daily-2023_01_24-04h01.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 stall ahead of further major US earnings

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of Tesla, Boeing and IBM earnings.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 January 2023 

FTSE 100 opens higher on lower producer price inflation

The FTSE 100 opened higher than Tuesday’s low at 7,741 as UK producer prices increased by 14.7% year-on-year in December 2022, lower than the 16.2% reading in November and marking the lowest producer inflation since March of last year.

While Monday’s high at 7,811 caps, though, a short-term downtrend remains intact. For this to no longer be the case the current January peak at 7,876 would need to be overcome.

While 7,811 caps, there remains a risk of not only Tuesday’s low at 7,741 being reached but also last week’s low at 7,725. Failure at 7,725 would put the 10 January low at 7,668 back into the frame. As long as this level isn’t slipped through, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend with the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark representing possible upside targets.

25012023UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 continues to range trade ahead of Germany’s IFO business climate

The DAX 40 swiftly dropped to 14,904 last week but this week range traded above this low whilst forming a minor high at 15,160 on Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s German IFO business climate data which is expected to come in at 90.2 in January versus 88.6 in the previous month.

While the index remains below 15,160, it may well slide back towards Tuesday’s 15,020 low, a slip through which would not only put last week’s low at 14,904 back on the map but perhaps also the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814.

25012023DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 loses upside momentum following disappointing Microsoft earnings

The S&P 500 this week managed to rally to a six-week high at 4,040 but on Tuesday gave back some of its gains on disappointing earnings from Microsoft which showed earnings growth at its lowest level in more than five years and was accompanied by a cautious outlook.

A slip through Tuesday’s low at 3,989 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to a tumble towards the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 3,946 and 3,938.

Such a bearish scenario looks more likely than a rise above Monday’s 4,040 high since it has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily RSI, pointing to a possible reversal lower soon taking shape ahead of earnings from Tesla, Boeing and IBM today.

Support below the 200- and 55-daySMAs at 3,946 to 3,938 can be spotted at the previous resistance zone now, because of inverse polarity, support area which sits between 3,918 and 3,904. It contains the late September and October highs and the mid-November and early December lows. Below it lies last week’s low at 3,886.

Only a rise and daily chart close above this week’s 4,040 high would push the mid- and 22 November highs at 4,042 to 4,043 to the fore ahead of the early January high at 4,101 and the December peak at 4,139.

25012023SPTRD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for fresh gains

Indices are aiming to move higher, after US markets recovered late in Wednesday’s session.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 January 2023 

FTSE 100 rallies off Wednesday low

Weakness on Wednesday saw the index drop back towards 7700 but buyers came in once again to defend the lows.

The pullback from a higher high earlier in the month has yet to be reversed, and a continued decline would head towards 7620 and then the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which provided support in December and January.

A recovery targets 7870 in the first instance, and then on towards 7900.

FTSE_260123.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX hovers just below recent highs

Two weeks of consolidation may be giving way to a fresh push higher.

Wednesday’s session saw the index push back above 15,000, and further upside will test the mid-month highs at 15,270. From here, 15,520 and then 15,730, the highs from February and March 2022.

A reversal below 15,000 negates this bullish view, and suggests a possible move back towards 14,500.

DAX_260123.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 back above 4000

The index rallied off the 200-day SMA on Wednesday, and moved back above 4000.

This now puts the 4100 zone into play as a target, being the highs from late November and early December. A move above 4100 continues to solidify the bullish view.

Sellers will need a move back below 3940 to suggest that a bearish view prevails.

SPX_260123.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow post better-than-expected US GDP numbers

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of US PCE price index data, pending home sales, plus earnings from American Express and Chevron.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023 

FTSE 100 stays sidelined ahead of next week’s Bank of England rate meeting

The FTSE 100 continues to range trade in low volatility, having recovered from this week’s 7,711 low, made marginally below last week’s 7,724 low, ahead of next week’s Bank of England (BoE) committee meeting.

While Monday’s high at 7,811 caps, though, a short-term downtrend remains intact. For this to no longer be the case, the current January peak at 7,876 would need to be bettered. While 7,811 caps, there remains a risk of this week’s low at 7,711 being slipped through with the 10 January low at 7,668 then being in focus.

As long as this level holds, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend with the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark still possibly being reached.

27012023UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX 40 continues to range trade ahead of next week’s ECB meeting

The DAX 40 continues to gradually advance from last week’s 14,904 low and is being supported by its January support line at 15,094, ahead of next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

If slipped through on Friday, this week’s low at 14,964, together with last week’s low at 14,904, would be back in the picture. As long as the latter level underpins, an uptrend remains intact.

If not, the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814 could be eyed instead. A rise above Thursday’s 15,221 high would push the current January high at 15,272 to the fore.

27012023DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average rally continues on back of solid US GDP data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) continues its advance towards the December-to-January downtrend line at 34,130 on the back of better-than-expected fourth quarter (Q4) US GDP data.

The US economy grew by an annualised 2.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2022 versus an estimate of 2.6% and following a 3.2% jump in Q3.

The Dow remains bid ahead of Friday’s US PCE price index – the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred measure of inflation - and pending home sales, plus earnings from American Express and Chevron.

Were the December-to-January downtrend line at 34,130 to be broken through, the way would be open for the January high at 34,346 to be back in the frame.

Support can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 33,644. Below it good support can be spotted between the late December and early January highs at 33,492 to 33,461.

While the 10 January low at 33,343 underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

27012023DJI-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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