News and Trade Ideas (Indices)

[MongiIG]

Mixed start to the week for FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500

Indices moved higher on Friday, particularly in the US, but a quiet start to the week has left markets becalmed.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 January 2023 

FTSE 100 pushes back towards 7800

The index fell back last week from its four-year highs, but recovered on Friday to push back towards 7790.

A fresh push higher puts the 7900 level into view, with the May 2018 high at 7903 just beyond it. Friday’s recovery seems to leave the bullish view intact, though the price still remains overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7541.

A move back below 7700 signals a deeper retracement, heading towards the 50-day SMA.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX flat in early trading

A modest drop on Thursday was mostly reversed on Friday, leaving the January bounce intact.

If the bulls can sustain this momentum into the new week then a push towards 15,200 and higher seems likely, with a higher low established, if only after a small retracement.

Sellers might want to see further declines, but even a move back to 14,500 would leave the bounce intact.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rebounds above 200-day MA

Friday saw the price rebound above the 200-day SMA, negating the bearish view that had developed over the past week.

The rally on Friday saw the index recoup losses that had marked a retreat from 4000, and stunted a bearish move that seemed to suggest a move back to 3770 was in the offing. Now the buyers need to push on above 4000 to suggest another attempt to retake the December highs above 4100 can begin.

A reversal below 3880 puts the bearish view back into the ascendant again.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq at risk of another move lower

The FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq look to be at risk of a bearish turn, despite surprisingly positive PMI data in Europe.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023 

FTSE rolling over in early trade

The FTSE 100 has found itself on the back foot in early trade today, with price heading lower to potentially follow up on the declines seen a week ago.

The index has enjoyed substantial gains over the course of the past month, but that appears to be coming into question here. Thursday’s rebound from the 76.4% Fibonacci support zone does highlight the importance of the 7117 support level down below. Nonetheless, it would ultimately take a break below the 7667 swing-low to bring an end to the recent uptrend.

Until then, the bears do appear to be gaining traction, with a break below last week’s low of 7724 bringing about a confirmation of the lower high and low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX indecision as PMI surveys bring grounds for optimism

The DAX appears to be showing signs of indecision after a period of strength that has seen price recovering much of last week’s declines.

The economic outlook for Germany has shifted somewhat thanks to the latest PMI data, with services rising back into expansion after six months of contraction. Unfortunately, the manufacturing sector remains well off the pace given the reading of 47.0, but a Chinese reopening/recovery should help things on that front.

That being said, the DAX remains off the pace, with price failing to react in either direction. There is a downside risk given the recent pullback. With price rising into the deep Fibonacci resistance zone between 15131 and 15185, there is a risk of another bearish turn from here.

A move up through the prior high of 15272 would be required to signal the continuation of this recent bullish trend. To the downside, a move back below 15022 would bring a signal of potential further weakness from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq rebounds into key resistance zone

The Nasdaq has enjoyed a big boost at the start of the week, with the index rising into a five-week high and the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level.

The wider bearish trend remains in place as highlighted by the daily chart below. That remains unless we see price break out through the 12258 swing-high.

For now, the confluence of trendline, 100-day simple moving average (SMA), and Fibonacci resistance provides the basis for a potential downward turn once again.

As such, keep an eye out for whether price can push up through resistance here or begins to reverse lower once again.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 stall ahead of further major US earnings

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of Tesla, Boeing and IBM earnings.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 January 2023 

FTSE 100 opens higher on lower producer price inflation

The FTSE 100 opened higher than Tuesday’s low at 7,741 as UK producer prices increased by 14.7% year-on-year in December 2022, lower than the 16.2% reading in November and marking the lowest producer inflation since March of last year.

While Monday’s high at 7,811 caps, though, a short-term downtrend remains intact. For this to no longer be the case the current January peak at 7,876 would need to be overcome.

While 7,811 caps, there remains a risk of not only Tuesday’s low at 7,741 being reached but also last week’s low at 7,725. Failure at 7,725 would put the 10 January low at 7,668 back into the frame. As long as this level isn’t slipped through, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend with the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark representing possible upside targets.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 continues to range trade ahead of Germany’s IFO business climate

The DAX 40 swiftly dropped to 14,904 last week but this week range traded above this low whilst forming a minor high at 15,160 on Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s German IFO business climate data which is expected to come in at 90.2 in January versus 88.6 in the previous month.

While the index remains below 15,160, it may well slide back towards Tuesday’s 15,020 low, a slip through which would not only put last week’s low at 14,904 back on the map but perhaps also the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 loses upside momentum following disappointing Microsoft earnings

The S&P 500 this week managed to rally to a six-week high at 4,040 but on Tuesday gave back some of its gains on disappointing earnings from Microsoft which showed earnings growth at its lowest level in more than five years and was accompanied by a cautious outlook.

A slip through Tuesday’s low at 3,989 on a daily chart closing basis could lead to a tumble towards the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 3,946 and 3,938.

Such a bearish scenario looks more likely than a rise above Monday’s 4,040 high since it has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily RSI, pointing to a possible reversal lower soon taking shape ahead of earnings from Tesla, Boeing and IBM today.

Support below the 200- and 55-daySMAs at 3,946 to 3,938 can be spotted at the previous resistance zone now, because of inverse polarity, support area which sits between 3,918 and 3,904. It contains the late September and October highs and the mid-November and early December lows. Below it lies last week’s low at 3,886.

Only a rise and daily chart close above this week’s 4,040 high would push the mid- and 22 November highs at 4,042 to 4,043 to the fore ahead of the early January high at 4,101 and the December peak at 4,139.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for fresh gains

Indices are aiming to move higher, after US markets recovered late in Wednesday’s session.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 January 2023 

FTSE 100 rallies off Wednesday low

Weakness on Wednesday saw the index drop back towards 7700 but buyers came in once again to defend the lows.

The pullback from a higher high earlier in the month has yet to be reversed, and a continued decline would head towards 7620 and then the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which provided support in December and January.

A recovery targets 7870 in the first instance, and then on towards 7900.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX hovers just below recent highs

Two weeks of consolidation may be giving way to a fresh push higher.

Wednesday’s session saw the index push back above 15,000, and further upside will test the mid-month highs at 15,270. From here, 15,520 and then 15,730, the highs from February and March 2022.

A reversal below 15,000 negates this bullish view, and suggests a possible move back towards 14,500.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 back above 4000

The index rallied off the 200-day SMA on Wednesday, and moved back above 4000.

This now puts the 4100 zone into play as a target, being the highs from late November and early December. A move above 4100 continues to solidify the bullish view.

Sellers will need a move back below 3940 to suggest that a bearish view prevails.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow post better-than-expected US GDP numbers

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of US PCE price index data, pending home sales, plus earnings from American Express and Chevron.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023 

FTSE 100 stays sidelined ahead of next week’s Bank of England rate meeting

The FTSE 100 continues to range trade in low volatility, having recovered from this week’s 7,711 low, made marginally below last week’s 7,724 low, ahead of next week’s Bank of England (BoE) committee meeting.

While Monday’s high at 7,811 caps, though, a short-term downtrend remains intact. For this to no longer be the case, the current January peak at 7,876 would need to be bettered. While 7,811 caps, there remains a risk of this week’s low at 7,711 being slipped through with the 10 January low at 7,668 then being in focus.

As long as this level holds, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend with the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark still possibly being reached.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 continues to range trade ahead of next week’s ECB meeting

The DAX 40 continues to gradually advance from last week’s 14,904 low and is being supported by its January support line at 15,094, ahead of next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

If slipped through on Friday, this week’s low at 14,964, together with last week’s low at 14,904, would be back in the picture. As long as the latter level underpins, an uptrend remains intact.

If not, the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814 could be eyed instead. A rise above Thursday’s 15,221 high would push the current January high at 15,272 to the fore.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average rally continues on back of solid US GDP data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) continues its advance towards the December-to-January downtrend line at 34,130 on the back of better-than-expected fourth quarter (Q4) US GDP data.

The US economy grew by an annualised 2.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2022 versus an estimate of 2.6% and following a 3.2% jump in Q3.

The Dow remains bid ahead of Friday’s US PCE price index – the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred measure of inflation - and pending home sales, plus earnings from American Express and Chevron.

Were the December-to-January downtrend line at 34,130 to be broken through, the way would be open for the January high at 34,346 to be back in the frame.

Support can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 33,644. Below it good support can be spotted between the late December and early January highs at 33,492 to 33,461.

While the 10 January low at 33,343 underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin Monday on a weaker footing

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of plethora of central bank meetings by the likes of the Fed, ECB and BoE.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023 

FTSE 100 sells off ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate meeting

The FTSE 100 continues to slide ahead of this week’s Bank of England (BoE) committee meeting where a 50-basis point rate hike is expected to be announced.

Nonetheless the index is to end the month of January in positive territory.

A fall through last week’s low at 7,711 would push the 10 January low at 7,668 to the fore. As long as this level holds, together with the October-to-January uptrend line at 7,644, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend with the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark still representing possible upside targets.

Immediate resistance can be spotted at Thursday’s 7,786 high. While remaining below it, immediate downside pressure should be maintained.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 gives back recent gains ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting

The DAX 40 is seen giving back some of last week’s gains as investors are refocusing their attention on monetary policy with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to hike its rates by 25-basis points on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) by 50-basis points on Thursday.

Good support seen between the recent January lows at 14,964 to 14,904 are thus back in the frame but may once more offer support this week. As long as the latter level underpins, a neutral to bullish bias remains intact.

If the 14,904 low were to be slipped through, however, the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814 could be eyed instead.

A rise above Thursday’s 15,221 high is needed to put the current January high at 15,272 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 expected to open lower

The S&P 500 is expected to begin this week on a weaker footing, having last week jumped by close to 2.5% amid slowing inflation, weakening economic data and mixed corporate earnings in the US which point towards a slower pace of central bank policy tightening with the Fed expected to raise rates by 25-basis points on Wednesday.

The minor psychological 4,000 mark is thus back in play, below which the January support line can be found at 3,955 as well as the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 3,946 to 3,941.

Resistance is seen at last week’s high at 4,062, a rise above which would push the early January high at 4,101 and the December peak at 4,139 back to the fore.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq consolidate after latest leg higher

The FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq appear to be consolidating after a period of significant upside.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023 

FTSE manages to remain above key support

The FTSE 100 has been showing some signs of potential weakness of late, with price falling back into a new pattern of lower highs and lows.

That signalled the potential for a new retracement period to give back some of the gains seen earlier in the month. However, we are yet to see any notable downside take shape, with the key 7690 support level holding out for now. A break back through that level would bring about greater confidence of a wider retracement lower.

However, given the fact that we have seen price now pushing up into the recent swing-high of 7786, there is a good chance that we see continued consolidation or even a move higher from here.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX consolidates as it threatens to roll over

The DAX has similarly been showing signs of potentially rolling over, with price following up a recent pullback with a subsequent 76.4% Fibonacci retracement.

That threatens to provide a second move lower, with a decline through 14903 bringing about a new lower low and confirmation of the recent lower high.

With that in mind, keep an eye out for a break below 14903 to signal the potential start of a wider pullback for the DAX here. Until then, price continues to consolidate as we await a signal to tell us where we go from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq pulls back from key resistance

The Nasdaq has been heading sharply lower since rallying into the key swing-high resistance level of 12258. A move up through that level would bring about a fresh bullish signal for the index, completing a double bottom formation on the daily timeframe.

However, for now the index is reversing lower in a bid to potentially continue the wider bearish theme. Nonetheless, this pullback does currently look to simply maintain the pattern of higher lows seen on the four-hour chart, with the 11714 and 11816 Fibonacci support levels coming into view here.

They highlight the potential for another turn upwards before long, with a break back below the 11548 required to bring about a confirmation signal that the index has topped out after reversing from key resistance at 12258.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow await US Fed decision

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of plethora of central bank meetings by the likes of the Fed, ECB and BoE.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 February 2023 

FTSE 100 bounces off support ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate meeting

At month end on Tuesday the FTSE 100 bounced off its key 7,725 to 7,708 support area which has held since mid-January while traders await Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) committee meeting where a 50-basis point rate hike is expected to be announced.

Minor resistance at Tuesday’s 7,795 high is now in focus, together with last week’s high at 7,811. If overcome, the January peak at 7,876 may be back in the picture, a rise above which would bring the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark to the fore.

Only a drop through this week’s low at 7,708 would put the 10 January low at 7,668 back on the map. As long as this level holds, together with the October-to-January uptrend line at 7,670, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 stays sidelined ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting

The DAX 40 once more revisited its January support zone and slid to 14,993 on Tuesday on a plethora of mixed European consumer spending, CPI, unemployment and retail sales data before being rescued by eurozone GDP data which beat estimates and US markets which rallied on better-than-expected earnings by the likes of McDonald’s.

Attention is now on G7 central banks such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) which is expected to hike its rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) which are to raise their rates by 50 basis points on Thursday.

Good support remains to be seen between the recent January lows at 14,992 to 14,904 and as long as it underpins, the recent neutral to bullish bias should remain in play.

If the 14,904 low were to be slipped through, however, the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814 could be eyed instead.

On the flipside a rise above last Thursday’s 15,221 high is needed to put the current January high at 15,272 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average recovers from this week’s low on better-than-expected earnings

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was dragged down to 33,512 on Tuesday before rallying on better-than-expected earnings by the likes of AMD, Exxon Mobil and General Motors.

The index is thus once more approaching its December-to-January downtrend line at 34,090 and its 34,168 high seen last week. If overcome, the January high at 34,346 would be targeted.

Support can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 33,659 and at Tuesday’s 33,512 low. Below it good support can be spotted between the late December and early January highs at 33,492 to 33,461.

While the 10 January low at 33,343 underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 in strong form following FOMC meeting

Indices have moved higher in the wake of the Fed meeting, helped along by strong numbers from Meta.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 02 February 2023

FTSE 100 pushes above 7800

After dipping back towards 7700 over the past week, the index has begun to move higher once again.

This renewed move higher puts the January highs in play, with further gains targeting 7900 and then on to 8000 itself. The index remains overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which sits down towards 7609, but for now this situation does not seem to be the cause for any concern.

The price action last week seems to have negated any bearish view for the time being, with 7700 holding as support.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX hits fresh 12-month high

Two days of gains have resulted in the index pushing to its highest level since the end of last February.

A fresh push towards 15,600 looks to be in the offing, and from there the index will target the 16,000 level and then the 16,300 highs from January 2022. For the moment, there is no sign of bearish momentum developing.

A potential hurdle would be today’s ECB meeting, which could see the index reverse course in the short-term, though even a drop back below 15,000 would only then suggest a potential test of the 50-day SMA.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rallies above 4100

The Fed meeting yesterday resulted in a fresh bounce for the index, taking it back to 4100 and the highs of December and September last year.

Supported by a rising MACD, the index now looks set for further gains, with 4205 and then 4315 the next major levels to watch on the upside.

Sellers will need to see a reversal below 4050 to suggest that they have wrested control of the index away from the bulls.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow rally ahead of US non-farm payrolls

Outlook on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 February 2023 

S&P 500 rallies to critical technical resistance post Fed rate hike

The S&P 500 accelerated to the upside and on Thursday rallied above its September and December highs at 4,139 to 4,155 - which represent key resistance – but then slid back and closed marginally above this area as Apple sales dropped by 5% in their largest quarterly decline since 2016.

If the S&P 500 were to have another daily close above 4,155 this Friday and by definition then a weekly close, especially after the US non-farm payroll data, the August peak at 4,325 would be next in line. En route lies the late August high at 4,215.

Minor support below 4,139 can be found between the early December and January highs at 4,101 to 4,094, below which the breached one-year downtrend line can now be seen at 4,037.

While Tuesday’s low at 3,994 isn’t being slipped through, the 2023 uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 rallies despite gloomy outlook by US tech giants

In case of the Nasdaq 100, a bottom has already been confirmed by Wednesday’s close above the November and December highs at 12,084 to 12,258, with the September peak at 12,902 nearly having been reached before disappointing results by tech giants such as Apple, Amazon and Alphabet drove the index lower.

With all three companies offering a gloomy outlook in their quarterly results, a further retracement lower may be seen on Friday. Having said that, the technical bullish view will remain valid as long as investors continue to expect that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle may be nearing its peak and while Tuesday’s low at 11,817 isn’t being slipped through or a clear technical bearish reversal signal is being given by the index.

A rise above the 12,902 September high would put the August peak at 13,722 on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow continues to be this year’s US underperformer

Only the Dow Jones Industrial Average is underperforming and is finding it difficult to advance, having on Wednesday failed around its January high.

The index continues to range trade within its 34,941 to 32,474 December extremes but does remain short-term bullish while this week’s low and the October-to-February uptrend line at 33,512 to 33,490 underpin on a daily chart closing basis.

Having said that, a rise and daily chart close above the January and February highs at 34,346 to 34,348 needs to be seen, for the December peak at 34,941 to be back in the frame.

Failure at this week’s low at 33,490 would have short-term negative implications.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 tiptoe lower following strong US jobs report

Indices have pushed slightly lower in early trading, following the strong jobs report on Friday in the US, which smashed expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 06 February 2023 

FTSE 100 sheds ground after hitting record high

Friday’s move saw the index breeze to a new record high, clambering back above 7900.

This move higher has solidified the uptrend, although buyers should still note the yawning gap with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Nonetheless, the buyers appear firmly in charge with plenty of empty space above the index for the time being.

In the short-term, a reversal could see the 7700 area tested again, where buyers appeared in the second half of January. Below this the 50-day SMA would be the next area to await support.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX edges lower

The index continues to make good progress in its recovery of last year’s losses, pushing to 15,500 last week.

The 15,500 area is one to watch, since it provided resistance in the early part of 2022 as the index attempted to rebound from January’s losses. Above this, 15,725 and then 16,200 come into view as upside targets.

Sellers have ceded control here for the time being, and it would need a move back below 15,000 to indicate that a deeper retracement was in play.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 drops back

US markets could not sustain their exuberant mid-week gains following a blowout non-farm payrolls reading.

While the index has clocked up a new higher high in its uptrend from the October lows, it has faltered below 4200. A potential reversal could now develop, though a move below 4050 would need to provide the initial signal.

A recovery back above Friday’s highs and above 4200 then puts the index on course for the August 2022 highs around 4320.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100 near record high, DAX 40 and S&P 500 also higher on Fed Chair Powell speech

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 post less hawkish than anticipated Jerome Powell speech.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 February 2023 

FTSE 100 trades close to new all-time highs

The FTSE 100 rallied to a new all-time high overnight following Wednesday evening’s less hawkish than anticipated speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, even though he explained that more rate hikes would be needed if the US labour market remains strong but also mentioned that disinflation had begun.

A continued advance in the UK blue chip index could have the psychological 8,000 mark in focus, if further record highs were to be seen.

Slips should find support around the 7,876 January peak and further down at Tuesday’s 7,843 low. While it underpins, immediate upside pressure should be maintained.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 recovers on back of stronger US equity markets

On Tuesday, the DAX 40 revisited its Monday low but then recovered off it amid stronger US equity markets which positively interpreted comments by Fed chair Jerome Powell, even though he mentioned that inflation may last “quite a bit of time.”

Following Tuesday’s Hammer formation on the daily candlestick chart, the DAX 40 may once more be heading towards its 15,553 early February high, provided that Tuesday’s low at 15,272 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

Above it the 2023 uptrend line at 15,318 may offer support as well.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rallies post Fed chair Powell’s speech

The S&P 500 saw some volatile trading on Tuesday, rising in anticipation of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech and then rapidly dropping during his speech before finally rallying as the market interpreted his comments to be less hawkish than previously anticipated.

A swift rise off Tuesday’s 4,088 low took the index back above the 4,155 mid-September high while targeting last week’s six-month high at 4,195 which hasn’t been reached yet, though. If overcome, however, the late August high at 4,215 would be next in line.

A bullish bias will be maintained while no bearish reversal takes the S&P 500 below Tuesday’s 4,088 low. If so, a top may be forming which could take the index back to the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 3,966 to 3,938.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 make fresh push higher

Indices have had a mixed week, but are once again attempting to make upward progress.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023 

FTSE 100 moves above 7900 again

The index is making a new attempt to push on above 7900 today, having struggled around this level yesterday.

The index clearly has the psychological 8000 level in focus, as it makes a move to build on the bounce from the late January support zone above 7700.

So long as it holds above this level the bullish view remains in place, with sellers needing a move below 7700 to suggest a short-term pullback is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX edges higher

After the weakness on Monday and Tuesday the index has pushed back above 15,500. Additional gains continue to target 15,600, and from there the 1 February 2022 high at 15,715 comes into view.

The index does remain overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and today’s initial gains have widened the gap. But for the moment this is more of a warning to buyers not to chase this market higher, and at present there is little sign of any serious pullback developing. That would require a move below 15,000 at the least.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 stuck in a narrow range

The index has found it impossible to establish a clear direction this week, but overall the buyers still seem to have the upper hand.

The consolidation for the week so far means that we await a move above 4200 to establish a fresh bullish thrust in price terms, potentially opening the way to the August highs above 4300.

Meanwhile, a reversal below 4100 would provide the bears with some hope of a short-term pullback, though as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA the outlook will continue to lean broadly bullish.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 edge higher in Monday trading

Indices have pushed higher in opening trading, though sentiment remains fragile ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 February 2023 

FTSE 100

The index has spent the past week clinging on around the 7900 level, unable to push higher for now.

The uptrend remains firmly in place, and additional gains continue to target the psychologically important 8000 level. In the short-term, a pullback towards the 7700 level or even the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) might help ‘reset’ the upward move with the creation of a higher low.

A more bearish view would need a move back below the 7600 level, which would see the price below the late November peak.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX

After dropping back at the end of last week, the price has found some short-term support, though a retreat towards the 50-day SMA still seems like a distinct possibility.

A move lower would test the 15,000 support area, before moving on to the 50-day SMA. Having created higher highs in November and February, and a higher low in December, the index looks well-placed for further medium-term gains, even if it looks over-extended in the short-term.

It would need a move below 14,100 to open the way to a more bearish view.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

Buyers are attempting to arrest the drift lower, with a push off Friday’s lows so far this morning.

Possible trendline support from early January may have come into play, while additional declines would test the 4000 area, followed up by the 200-day SMA.

A recovery from trendline support would then put a move back towards 4200 into play and revive the uptrend from the December lows.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq on the rise ahead of US CPI data

The FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq push higher, but inflation data looms large as a key determinant of sentiment.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 February 2023 

FTSE rallies up to trendline resistance

The FTSE 100 has been on the front foot since Friday's low, driving the index up into a fresh record high. That push maintains the bullish theme that has dominated the past four months, with further upside expected as a result.

Today marks the beginning of a period which will be dominated by economic data, with the UK jobs figures providing a boost thanks to a decline in both wage growth and claimants.

With the FTSE 100 having broken through trendline resistance, the bullish sentiment seen yesterday clearly has legs to it. As such, bullish positions remain in favour unless we see price fall back below the7849 swing-low .

Source: ProRealTime

DAX struggles to maintain recovery

The DAX has been attempting to regain lost ground following an upside turn from the wider 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and key 15272 support level.

The fact that we have once again reversed upwards from this zone of support signals the potential for a move up through the recent high of 15656. As such, the consolidation currently playing out is likely to be a short-term breather before the bulls come back into prominence.

However, with US inflation set to dictate the temperature of markets this afternoon, a significant decline could see a head and shoulders formation completed if price were to move below the 15241 support level.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq rebounds but CPI brings caution

The Nasdaq has been on the rise since Friday's low, but the pattern here is somewhat different.

The short-term pattern of lower highs and lows brings the potential for another move lower, with the US CPI bringing the perfect market moving event that could drive such a move. Similarly, that release could bring the bulls back into prominence.

While we have been seeing an intraday trend lower of late, there is a strong chance that this is simply a retracement of the 11816-12896 leg.

With that in mind, the fact that the recent decline has found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci level highlights the possibility that we bottom out here.

Watch for a break up through the 12776 level to confirm the bullish breakout.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 comes off record high, DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 slip post US CPI reading

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 as negative divergence points to a probable sell-off.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 February 2023 

FTSE 100 consolidates below all-time record high

The FTSE 100 has reached a new record high around the 8,000 mark before consolidating as US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy took a hawkish shift after US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) came in at 6.4% year-on-year in January, above expectations of 6.2% but below the 6.5% reported in December.

Core inflation also came in slightly above expectations at 5.6% versus 5.5% in the prior month.

UK January CPI came in at a better-than-expected 10.1% year-on-year versus an expected 10.3% and 10.5% in December with core CPI falling to 5.8% versus and expected 6.2% and 6.3% in the previous month.

Since triple negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) accompanied the record high in the FTSE 100 and a wedge is being formed on the daily chart, the odds still favour a reversal lower soon taking shape.

Possible downside targets are the 7,876 January peak, followed by last week’s 7,850 low. Failure there would have more bearish implications with the late January low at 7,708 being back in sight.

The medium-term uptrend will remain intact while the index stays above 7,708 on a daily chart closing basis. A rise above the psychological 8,000 mark may lead to the 8,050 level being reached.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 may soon be topping out

Tuesday’s rally in the DAX 40 took it back to its breached five-week support line which, because of inverse polarity, acted as a resistance line and thwarted the indices’ advance as US inflation data came in slightly higher than expected.

Further pressure was exerted on the DAX 40 when European Central Bank (ECB) council member Gabriel Makhlouf in an interview with the Wall Street Journal said that interest rates in Europe could rise above 3.5% and that the central bank is unlikely to cut these in 2023 as it tries to bring soaring inflation under control despite borrowing costs being at the highest level since late 2008.

Since negative divergence on the daily RSI remains to be seen, a short-term negative bias remains in play for the DAX 40 as long as it trades below Tuesday’s high at 15,531 on a daily chart closing basis.

A slip through Tuesday’s Doji low at 15,364 would push the 15,272 to 15,245 January high and the 6 to 13 February lows to the fore. Failure there on a daily chart closing basis, could lead to the more significant 14,992 to 14,904 mid-to-late January lows being targeted.

A rise above Tuesday’s high at 15,531 may lead to the early February high at 15,553 being revisited, above which the current February peak can be spotted at 15,656.

Source: ProRealTime

Euro Stoxx 50 comes off its one-year high

On Tuesday the Euro Stoxx 50 index made another one-year high, this time at 4,280, before being dragged down by weaker US and Asian indices which are repricing the risk of further monetary tightening being implemented by the Fed.

This is after several of its committee members re-iterated overnight that the central bank’s terminal rate is likely to be close to the 5.25% to 5.50% zone versus an expected 5.10% average back in December.

Tuesday’s high at 4,280 was made marginally above its February 2022 high at 4,260 but may be followed by a slip to the 4,197 January high, below which last week’s low can be spotted at 4,173.

Were the recent highs at 4,276 to 4,280 to be bettered, however, the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at 4,396 to 4,415 would be in focus but would likely represent major resistance.

Since last and this week’s highs were not confirmed by a higher reading of the daily RSI, the risk of a bearish reversal soon being witnessed remains high.

A slip through the 6 February low at 4,187 would push the 4,092 mid-January low back to the fore. While it holds, the medium-term uptrend remains intact, though.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 at new record high, as DAX and S&P 500 push higher

Indices have made gains in early trading, with the FTSE 100 pushing to a new record high.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023 

FTSE 100 at new record high

The index’s impressive rally continues, moving firmly above 8000 for the first time and clocking up new record highs.

For now there seems no sign of any reversal developing, but bulls should continue to keep an eye on the yawning gap between the price above 8000 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) down at 7690.

While history may not repeat itself, early December is a good guide for how a retracement to the 50-day can be swift, while setting up a fresh higher low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX pushes higher

This index continues to record impressive gains, targeting the 15,720 highs from early February last year.

Beyond this, the 16,300 highs from Q4 2022 come into play as the next upside targets. This would mark an impressive rebound from the October lows.

As with the FTSE 100, the index does look overextended in the short-term, but the gap between the price and the 50-day SMA has remained wide throughout the year so far without the index being particularly concerned.

A drop back below 15,250 might signal that a substantial pullback is underway.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 heads towards recent peak

The index has been able to move higher despite the stronger US retail sales yesterday.

It has now pushed back towards the 4160 zone which has proven to be resistance over the past three weeks. A close above 4200 would signal that this area of resistance has been broken to the upside and that the August high at 4310 is now in view.

A move below 4070 would be needed to suggest that the sellers are in the ascendant once again.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 comes off record high, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 look toppish

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as negative divergence points to a probable sell-off.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 February 2023

FTSE 100 comes off new all-time record high

On Thursday the FTSE 100 reached a new record high close to the 8,500 mark before consolidating.

On Friday morning UK retail sales beat a forecast 0.3% decline by coming in at 0.5% month-on-month in January, versus an upwardly revised 1.2% drop in December, but despite this the FTSE 100 remained on track for a weaker open.

Since triple negative divergence can still be spotted on the daily RSI and since a wedge continues to be formed on the daily chart, the risk of a reversal lower soon taking place remains high.

Possible downside targets are the January-to-February uptrend line at 7,938, followed by Wednesday’s low at 7,921 and the 7,876 January peak.

Only a fall through and daily chart close below the 10 February 7,850 low would have medium-term bearish implications with the late January low at 7,708 then being eyed.

Minor resistance now sits at Wednesday’s high at 8,023 and more significant resistance in the 8,044 to 8,050 zone.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 may be topping out

Thursday’s rally in the DAX 40 to 15,634 was followed by a sell-off to this year’s uptrend line at 15,429 on the back of stronger-than-expected US producer prices and employment data releases.

The US producer price index (PPI) increased 0.7% month-on-month in January, the most in seven months and by significantly more than the forecast 0.4% which is likely to reinforce the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, together with weekly jobless claims which unexpectedly fell last week.

What is interesting from a technical perspective is that the past three days’ highs were made along the previously breached January-to-February uptrend line which, because of inverse polarity, now acts as a resistance line. Since negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains to be seen, a short-term negative bias remains in place for the DAX 40 as long as it trades below last week’s high at 15,656 on a daily chart closing basis.

A fall through Thursday’s low at 15,412 would push the 15,272 to 15,245 January high and the 6 to 13 February lows back to the fore. Failure there on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the more significant 14,992 to 14,904 mid-to-late January lows being targeted.

Only a currently unexpected rise above Thursday’s high at 15,634 may lead to the current February peak at 15,656 being overcome with the 16,000 zone then being in sight.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 forms a bearish reversal pattern

This week’s rise in the Nasdaq 100 came to an abrupt halt on stronger-than-expected US producer price inflation and weekly employment data and as several Fed committee members made hawkish comments.

Both the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said they would not rule out backing a half-percentage point increase at the Fed’s March meeting, putting pressure on US and global equity indices.

With the 2023 uptrend line at 12,452 having been slipped through on Thursday when the Nasdaq 100 daily chart showed a bearish engulfing candle, the odds favour further weakness taking the index to last week’s low at 12,203, a fall through which would lead to the November peak at 12,084 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 11,894 being back in sight.

Resistance above the breached two-month support line at 12,452 sits at this week’s high at 12,747 which would need to be exceeded for the September and early February highs at 12,896 to 12,902 to be back in focus.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 & DAX still looking strong, but S&P 500 struggles

European indices have held their ground well in recent sessions, contrasting sharply with weakness in the US.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 February 2023 

FTSE 100 remains above 8000

After pushing to a new record high last week, the index has held on above 8000.

The uptrend from October remains intact, having shrugged off challenges in December and then in January. Higher highs have been created, and for now the wide gap with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) appears not to be much of a stumbling block to further gains.

In the event of a pullback, the 7000 area may provide support, with the 50-day SMA also a potential area of buying pressure.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX uptrend still in place

Sellers have been unable to drive the index lower, and the price continues to hold above 15,500.

As with the FTSE 100, a fresh pullback has yet to materialise. Should one develop, then the 50-day SMA would be the natural place for some support to appear.

Should the index push higher, then further gains target 15,725 and then 15,895, before moving on to the 2021 peaks above 16,000.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 struggles to move higher

Unlike the European markets, the US has found it much harder to make any progress.

The S&P 500 has been unable to hold on to its gains above 4150, falling back towards 4050. However, it has at least been able to create a higher high in February, and unless the price drops back below the 4000 level the bullish view remains cautiously intact.

Above 4200 the index will target August 2022’s highs just above 4300.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

PMI volatility ahead as FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq ease back

The FTSE and DAX look to be gearing up for another move higher before long, while the Nasdaq shows signs of weakness.

 

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 February 2023 

FTSE 100 eases back into trendline support

The FTSE 100 has started to weaken this week, following a period of gains that took the index up into a fresh record high on Thursday. This brings trendline support into play, with the bulls expected to bid up the index once again.

A decline through the 7953 support level would bring about a more negative outlook for the pair. Until then, the bulls are expected to come back into play once again here.

Keep a close eye out for the latest UK services and manufacturing PMI figures as a source of volatility this morning.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX turns lower within consolidation phase

The DAX has started to show signs of rolling over once again, as it continued to tread water within a period of consolidation.

From a wider perspective, this simply looks to represent another pause within a wider bullish trend. Thus, the eventual exit is expected to bring further gains for the index.

However, until we see price push through 15656, we look to remain within this range.

As such, near-term price action looks likely to take us back into the 15272-15300 zone before the bulls come back into play.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq struggles for positive momentum

The Nasdaq has been on the back foot of late, with price falling back down into the 12202 support level on Friday.

The recent declines do raise the risk of a double top formation, with a break below that neckline bringing expectations of further downside to come.

Interestingly, we have seen the latest rebound provide precious little upside, raising the likeliness of a move through that 12202 level. Whether that level breaks or not will be key in determining sentiment for the days ahead.

From a fundamental perspective, keep an eye out for today’s US services and manufacturing PMI surveys.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Dow in negative territory year-to-date while FTSE 100 and DAX 40 also point lower

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow as recent sell-off intensifies.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 February 2023 

FTSE 100 slips in line with US and Asian indices

This week’s slide in the FTSE 100 is ongoing with the UK index following US and then Asian markets lower as investors fret about the Fed further raising its rates to tame inflation and on the back of some US retail giants warning about economic uncertainties.

Since the FTSE 100 continues to display triple negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and since a drop out of the rising wedge can now be seen, the chances of a top forming are increasing.

Last Wednesday’s low at 7,921 is thus back in sight, a slip through which will eye the 7,876 January peak. Only a fall through and daily chart close below the 10 February 7,850 low would have medium-term bearish implications with the late January low at 7,708 then being in focus.

Minor resistance now sits at Thursday’s low at 7,979 and can also be seen around the psychological 8,000 mark. More significant resistance can be spotted at the recent 8,044 to 8,050 highs.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 may slip back towards support

The DAX 40 continues to trade sideways but short-term remains under pressure on global uncertainties and as annual inflation in Germany was confirmed at 8.7% in January, higher than the downwardly revised 8.1% in December.

This was due to a federal one-off payment to reduce the monthly payments for householder and small- to medium-sized companies’ gas and heating bills.

Were last Friday’s and Tuesday’s lows at 15,297 to 15,824 to be slipped through, the 15,272 to 15,245 January high and the 6 to 13 February lows would be targeted. Failure there on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the more significant 14,992 to 14,904 mid-to-late January lows being back in sight.

Minor resistance can now be found around last Thursday’s low at 15,412 and then at Tuesday’s high at 15,489. Whilst it isn’t overcome, downside pressure should retain the upper hand. Above this level lies the early February high at 15,553.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow drops back to negative territory year-to-date

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been underperforming its peers since the beginning of the year and is the first major index to trade back in negative territory year-to-date with Tuesday’s over 2% drop due to further Fed rate hike fears wiping out all of its 2023 gains.

The late January low at 32,935 represents the next downside target, a fall through which would put the December trough at 32,474 back on the map.

Immediate resistance can be seen at the 33,266 25 January low and at the 33,343 10 January low with more significant resistance to be found between the 30 January and 17 February lows at 33,471 to 33,793.

Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal to above Monday’s 33,833 high would negate the current downward pressure.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 top heavy with Dow and S&P 500 also under pressure

Outlook on FTSE 100, Dow and S&P 500 ahead of US PCE index data.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 February 2023 

FTSE 100 mixed despite UK Consumer Sentiment rising to 10-month peak

This week’s slide in the FTSE 100 has been interrupted by Thursday’s bounce but may well continue in the days ahead despite the UK GfK Consumer Confidence indicator hitting a 10-month high.

It increased to -38 in February from -45 in January and came in better than the -43 expected with the seven-point rise being the biggest monthly improvement in close to two years.

Since the FTSE 100 continues to display triple negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and a drop out of a rising wedge has taken place, the odds favour the January-to-February uptrend line at 7,876 soon being reached.

If it and the 10 February low at 7,850 were to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, a medium-term top would likely be formed with the late January low at 7,708 then being targeted.

Minor resistance above Thursday’s 7,946 high comes in at last Friday’s low at 7,953 and at Wednesday’s 7,973 high. Provided the latter isn’t bettered, further downside is likely to be in store.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow remains in negative territory year-to-date

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been underperforming its peers since the beginning of the year and is the first major index to trade back in negative territory year-to-date with Tuesday’s over 2% drop due to further Fed rate hike fears wiping out all of its 2023 gains.

A fall through Thursday’s low at 32,795 would push the December low at 32,474 back to the fore. If this level were to be slipped through, a medium-term top formation would be confirmed with the June 2022 low at 29,649 being eyed.

Thursday’s high at 33,270 represents immediate resistance above which stronger resistance can be found along the early to mid-February lows and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 33,512 to 33,602.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500

The S&P 500’s recent sell-off ahead of Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, to be closely watched by the Fed, has taken it back to the breached 2022-to-2023 downtrend line.

Because of inverse polarity, it now acts as a support line, together with the 55-day SMA and the October-to-February uptrend line at 3,979. Having said that, the fall and daily chart close below the 10 February low at 4,051 has probable negative implications for the index as it confirms at least an interim top formation.

A further slide through Thursday’s low at 3,970 would engage the 200-day SMA at 3,940 and would confirm a medium-term top which could lead to a slide back towards the October trough at 3,491 being seen over the coming months.

Minor resistance can be spotted at 4,047 to 4,051, the 10 and 17 February lows.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 higher to start the week

Indices were weaker on Friday, but the new week has seen a small recovery so far.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 February 2023 

FTSE 100 back above 7900

The index has pushed higher in early trading recouping Friday’s losses.

Friday’s price action saw the index wobble, but as happened on Wednesday and Thursday the 7900 level was defended. A push towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), not tested since the end of last year, would need a daily close below 7870.

Should the index continue to push higher then the 8000 level comes into play once again, and then above this comes 16 February’s record high at 8044.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX recoups some of Friday’s losses

Early gains this morning have seen the index recover some of Friday’s declines.

Last week ended with sharp losses, but a recovery this morning has seen the index move back above 15,300. February’s price action has been characterised by an inability to move below 15,300 on a sustained basis – sellers will need to drive the price below this to indicate that a short-term retracement is underway.

Continued gains target 15,700, and then above this the record highs from the final two months of 2021, above 16,000, come into play.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 bounces off 200-day MA

US markets have suffered heavily over the past two weeks, and Friday’s inflation data drove further declines.

The S&P 500 tested the 200-day SMA on Friday, and while futures have edged up so far this morning there is no sign as yet that a higher low is in. Further gains above 4000 would be necessary, accompanied by a bullish MACD crossover.

A push below Friday’s low would see the 200-day SMA taken out, which might open the path to the mid-January low at 3885.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq rolling over as eurozone inflation turns upward

The FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq are turning lower once again, with rising inflation data from France and Spain bringing fresh risk-off sentiment.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 February 2023 

FTSE 100 turning lower after rally into key resistance

The FTSE 100 has started to weaken once again this morning, following a rally into the confluence of resistance around 7949 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Despite the gains seen yesterday, equities have been showing warning signs of late, signalling the potential for a more protracted decline.

With the index having broken through trendline support, there is a good chance that we see another move lower for the FTSE. As such, bearish positions are favoured unless price rises back up through the 8045 peak.

Keep an eye out for comments from Bank of England members Cunliffe, Pill, and Mann later in the day.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX rolling over within recent range

The DAX has similarly started to weaken this morning, coming off the back of a rally towards the top end of a consolidation phase.

The range we have seen playing out over the course of February signals the potential for a bearish turn in the near-future, with price already starting to show signs of weakness. With that in mind, we may not see price reach the 15553-15656 resistance zone before turning lower.

Instead, the bears are coming into play from the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level here, with price looking likely to return to the lower end of this range (15244-15184). That being said, a bearish view holds from here, with a break through that support zone required to signal a wider decline coming into play.

In terms of data, this morning has seen France and Spain inflation move higher, providing a warning sign that the slowdown in disinflation seen in the US could similarly occur in the eurozone.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq turning lower from Fibonacci resistance

The Nasdaq looks to be turning lower once again, following another intraday rebound into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at 12150.

The bearish trajectory seen of late has brought about a double top formation, with price subsequently moving gradually towards the key 11816 support level. With that in mind, it makes sense to expect further weakness unless price rises through the 12228 resistance level.

To the downside, a break through 11816 brings greater confidence that this decline in going to persist.

Data-wise, keep an eye out for consumer confidence, and trade balance data released this afternoon.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 recover on solid China PMI data while Dow nears key support

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow following the publication of robust Chinese manufacturing and services data.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 March 2023 

FTSE 100 recovers on solid China PMI data

Having slid close to its 10 February low at 7,850 on Tuesday amid stronger-than-expected French inflation data, the FTSE 100 is seen to recover on the back of robust manufacturing and services data out of China.

While the Caixin China general manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since May 2021, the official NBS manufacturing PMI increased to its highest level since March 2012 and above expectations, boosting Asian equity indices.

The FTSE 100 is thus heading back up towards its February resistance line at 7,935, above which sits Monday’s high at 7,950. While it caps on a daily chart closing basis, the recent downward pressure should persist. Further up sit last Wednesday’s 7,973 high and the psychological 8,000 mark.

If this week’s low and the 10 February low at 7,850 were to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, a medium-term top would likely be formed with the late January low at 7,708 then being targeted.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 jumps on the Asian equity indices rally bandwagon

The DAX 40 followed Asian equity indices higher as these rose on solid manufacturing data out of China pointing to a successful re-opening of the country’s economy earlier in the year.

While the February resistance line at 15,504 caps on a daily chart closing basis, the risk of a slide back towards the 15,272 to 15,185 support zone occurring, remains on the table. It contains daily lows going back to the beginning of February and failure there on a daily chart closing basis could lead to the more significant 14,992 to 14,904 mid-to-late January lows being back in sight.

Above the February resistance line sits the 23 February high at 15,556 which may also act as resistance.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow approaches key support zone

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has not only been underperforming its peers since the beginning of the year and for the past week has been trading in negative territory year-to-date, but is also approaching key support which is likely to underpin at least in the short-term.

It consists of the 10 November and December lows as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32,474 to 32,397. A fall through the 200-day SMA at 32,397 would push the November trough at 31,711 to the fore but, more importantly, would skew the odds towards the resumption of the 2022 bear market, taking the index back towards its October low at 28,630.

While no bullish reversal takes the Dow to above Monday's high at 33,194 on a daily chart closing basis, downside pressure should retain the upper hand.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 holds steady but DAX and S&P 500 come under more pressure

Indices have continued their run of losses in March, though the FTSE 100 is holding up well versus its peers.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 02 March 2023 

FTSE 100 mixed in early trading

The retreat from the February highs continues, reversing some of Wednesday’s gains in early trading.

A continued retracement seems highly likely, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) coming into view as a potential area of support. It would take a lot to put a significant dent in the trend, and even more to suggest that a new wider bearish move is in play. As yet a higher low is still to form, but that remains the base case.

Below 7700 a more neutral view would prevail in the near-term, while a rebound to 8000 would signal that the sellers are in control once again.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX losses accelerate

After a middling performance throughout February, the index has suffered more dramatic losses in the first two days of March.

After the huge gains from October, another period of weakness was to be expected. For now we are still expecting a higher low to form, though it looks as if the sellers will push the price to the 50-day MA in the first instance. Below this lies the 14,580 highs from late November, which could provide support.

A rebound above 15,500 points towards bullish resurgence, targeting levels last seen in early 2022.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 slumps below 200-day MA

US markets have been the laggards throughout February, and so far in March the losses have continued.

The price now looks to test the 3885 area, seen in the first two weeks of the year, and then below this 3770. This would then negate the bullish view entirely for the time being, and suggest that the sellers had regained control in the medium term.

A rebound above 4000 is needed for the bulls to suggest that they have redeemed the situation and that a new rebound is underway.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 in recovery mode

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of Friday’s US Services PMI data release.

Source: bloomberg

 

Indices S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 03 March 2023 

FTSE 100 recovers after gains on Wall Street

Having slid close to its 10 February low at 7,850 on Tuesday amid stronger-than-expected French inflation data, the FTSE 100 is heading back up again after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s backed a smaller 25-basis point rate hike at the March committee meeting, leading to gains on Wall Street overnight.

The FTSE 100 is thus heading back up towards last Wednesday’s 7,973 high and the psychological 8,000 mark. Further up the index’s all-time record high sits close to the 8,500 mark.

Support can be spotted around the 7,876 mid-January high and at the 22 and 24 February lows at 7,879 to 7,870.

Only if the 10 February and this week’s lows at 7,854 to 7,850 were to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, would a medium-term top likely be formed with the late January low at 7,708 then representing the next downside target.

Source: Tradingview

DAX 40 recovers from Thursday’s intraday one-month low

On Thursday, the DAX 40 formed a bullish Hammer formation on the daily candlestick chart, having briefly slid to a one-month low before bouncing on the back of recovering US equity markets ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) committee member speeches and among a plethora of European services and PMI data.

The February-to-March resistance line at 15,470 represents a possible upside target, together with the early March high at 15,480.

While the next higher late February high at 15,556 isn’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis, however, the index remains in a sideways trading range with a small downward bias since a series of lower highs and lower lows can be made out on the daily chart since the index’s February high.

Support can be found at the 15,272 to 15,245 support zone which is made up of the early to mid-February lows and the, on Thursday briefly breached, October-to-March uptrend line.

Source: Tradingview

S&P 500

The S&P 500 once more bounced off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart on Thursday before closing along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3,878 amid less hawkish comments by the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Friday awaits US ISM Services PMI which will be watched closely by market players as it may give a good indication as to where the Fed is headed in terms of its monetary policy.

The now breached October-to-March uptrend line at 4,002 may well cap the upside on Friday but if it were to be exceeded, the 23 and 27 February highs at 4,018 to 4,026 may be reached.

Good support remains to be seen at last and this week’s lows as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3,942 to 3,920. If slid through, the 19 January low at 3,886 would be next in line.

Source: Tradingview

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Brent crude oil continues to rise while gold and copper await Jerome Powell testimony

Outlook on Brent crude crude oil, gold and copper ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to Congress.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Jerome Powell Gold Federal Reserve Petroleum Copper

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 March 2023 

Brent crude oil nears its $86.72 mid-February high

Brent crude oil continues its gradual advance and is approaching its mid-February high at $86.72 while remaining within its November-to-March sideways trading range as China’s trade surplus for January and February comes in larger than expected while its imports drop by more than expected.

A rise above the mid-February high at $86.72 and the early January high at $86.93 would engage the major $87.99 to $89.35 resistance zone, consisting of the mid-October low and the late November-to-January highs which capped any advance since late November.

Minor support can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83.73 and Friday’s low at $82.29. While it underpins, the recent upside bias should prevail. If unexpectedly slipped through, however, the December-to-March uptrend line at $81.05 would come back into the frame.

Source: Tradingview

Gold bounce is taking a breather

Gold’s recent advance from last week’s low at $1,805 has taken the precious metal back towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,864 below which it is consolidating ahead of US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell’s speeches in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services panel on Wednesday.

Were a rise to above Monday’s high at $1,858 and the 55-day SMA at $1.864 to be seen, the mid-February high at $1,870 would be next in line, followed by the 9 February high at $1,890.

Slips may find support around the 5 January and 17 February lows at $1,826 to $1,819.

Source: Tradingview

Recent slide in copper is levelling out

The recent slide in the price of copper has taken it back to $8,811 per ton low on Monday before forming a potentially bullish Hammer formation on the daily candlestick chart which took its price back above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,906 ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bi-annual speech to Congress which will be closely watched by market participants as to how he intends to push ‘sticky’ inflation lower.

A rise above Monday’s $8,979 Hammer high would push the 8 February high at $9,064 back to the fore as well as the January-to-March downtrend line at $9,082 whereas a fall through Monday’s low at $8,811 would put the October-to-March uptrend line at $$8,766 back on the map. Below it lies the $8,671 late February low and the far more technically important November and December highs at $8,629 to $8,593 which make up a significant support area.

Source: Tradingview

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow drop on hawkish Fed testimony

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of Wednesday’s Jerome Powell testimony to the US House Financial Services panel.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Federal Reserve Jerome Powell FTSE 100 Dow Jones Industrial Average Market trend

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 March 2023

FTSE 100 slides on hawkish Fed Chair comments

Having risen to last week’s high at 7,976, the FTSE 100 has been dragged down by the US Federal Reserve (Fed’s) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to the US Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday in which he warned that the ultimate level of the fed funds rate could end up being higher than had previously been anticipated in view of stronger economic data.

The FTSE 100 thus slid through its January-to-March uptrend line at 7,911 but remains above its 7,876 January peak which is expected to offer support, were it to be revisited. Below it lies key support at 7,854 to 7,850 which consists of the 10 February and last week’s lows. As long as this significant support zone holds, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

Only if the 7,850 level were to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, would a medium-term top likely be formed with the late January low at 7,708 then representing the next downside target.

Minor resistance now comes in at the early February high at 7,913 and also along the February-to-March resistance line at 7,955. Were the next higher 7,961 to 7,976 Tuesday and last Friday’s highs to be exceeded, the all-time record high close to the 8,050 mark would be back in the picture.

Source: Tradingview

DAX 40 comes off its 14-month high

On Tuesday, the DAX 40 traded at level last seen in January 2022 before being pushed down again by hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and an unexpected fall in German retail sales early on Wednesday morning. These declined by 0.3% month-on-month in January versus a forecast 2% rise and compared to a 5.3% slump in December.

On a more positive note, German industrial output growth rose to its strongest in 2 ½ years when it advanced to 3.5% month-over-month in January compared to an expected 1.4% rise and recovering from a downwardly revised 2.4% drop in December. This data helped stem the early morning decline in the DAX 40 index ahead of the early March high at 15,480.

Provided that the next lower late February and early March lows at 15,185 to 15,145 underpin, the medium-term uptrend will remain valid. Immediate resistance can be found at the 23 February high at 15,556, above which sits more significant resistance between the February and current March highs at 15,656 to 15,709.

Source: Tradingview

Dow approaches key support zone

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has not only been underperforming its peers since the beginning of the year and has been the only US index so far trading in negative territory year-to-date in late February, but it is also rapidly approaching its major support zone at 32,474 to 32,397 on the back of hawkish comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell who said that interest rates could peak higher if data warranted, raising concerns about a slowdown in the US economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average thus wiped out its past two trading days’ gains in one huge Bearish Engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart and is fast approaching minor support around the 32,807 January trough.

Provided that the next lower 10 November and December lows as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32,474 to 32,403 aren’t being slipped through, the possibility of a bullish reversal being seen, remain in play. This could happen when Jerome Powell continues his testimony to the US House Financial Services panel at 3pm London time on Wednesday.

A fall through the 200-day SMA at 32,403 would put the November trough at 31,711 on the map, however, and, more importantly, would skew the odds towards the resumption of the 2022 bear market, taking the index back towards its October low at 28,630.
Immediate resistance can be spotted at the 20 January low at 32,935 and then at the 27 February high at 33,194.

Source: Tradingview

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FTSE 100 and Nasdaq 100 remain under pressure while DAX 40 holds up well

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 following Jerome Powell’s hawkish testimony to Congress.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Federal Reserve DAX Jerome Powell FTSE 100 Nasdaq-100

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 March 2023 

FTSE 100 slides further on hawkish Fed Chair comments

Having risen to last week’s high at 7,976, the FTSE 100 has been dragged down by the US Federal Reserve (Fed’s) Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day testimony to Congress in which he stated that the Fed is “prepared to increase the pace of interest rate hikes” if the data required it but that no decision on the March meeting had yet been taken.

The FTSE 100’s slide through its January-to-March uptrend line has led to the index dropping towards its 7,854 to 7,850 key support area which consists of the 10 February and last week’s lows. As long as this significant support zone holds, the medium-term uptrend remains valid.

Were 7,850 to give way on a daily chart closing basis, however, a medium-term top would likely be formed with the late January low at 7,708 then representing the next downside target.

Minor resistance above the breached uptrend line – now because of inverse polarity a resistance line – at 7,922 can be seen along the February-to-March resistance line at 7,950.

Source: Tradingview

DAX 40 consolidates below its 14-month high

On Tuesday, the DAX 40 traded at level last seen in January 2022 before being pushed down by hawkish comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and an unexpected fall in German retail sales early on Wednesday morning.

From Wednesday’s low at 15,490 the index has risen again on the back of German industrial output growth which rose to its strongest in 2 ½ years and despite hawkish comments being made by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde with the DAX 40 heading back up towards its 15,656 February peak. Above it lurks this week’s high at 15,709.

Support below this week’s low at 15,490 can be spotted at the 15,481 early March high and at last Thursday’s high at 15,390.

Source: Tradingview

Nasdaq 100

Last week’s Nasdaq 100 rally culminated in Monday’s interim top being formed at 12,467 before the index took a hit on hawkish comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell by falling to Wednesday’s low at 12,096 before levelling out ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.

A fall through 12,096 could lead to this year’s uptrend line at 11,960 being revisited whereas a rise above Wednesday’s 12,241 high may put Monday’s low at 12,276 back on the map, a rise above which would be bullish and may indicate that the 12,467 high seen earlier this week could be exceeded.

Source: Tradingview