Pop my bubble

[786Trader]

If there's one thing more frustrating than the end of a great illusion, it's a bubble being popped...sleepy Joe Biden and his darn  strategic petroleum release ruins a good thing for all concerned...all being loosely termed as those on the inside (producers, refiners, traders, hedge fund money managers), Joe/Joleen public on the outside were the ones being comprehensively abused through record prices at the pumps. It is doubly frustrating as there is so much and many worthy of blame for these circumstances:- Putin and his war (special military operation?), Covid unpreparedness, sleepy Joe Biden and those darn lefty lunatic democrats. It's not like economic recovery was unexpected and with it concomitant energy use, or even the looming spectre of war in Ukraine (since 2021) and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy, on which Europe was so dependent.  Never entered calculations. 

However, responsibility to shareholders is an over riding factor regardless of market requirements, even if it requires squeezing your customers dry and exacerbating inflation. Shareholder value is paramount. 

WTI may well be almost at parity with Brent, which is most rare. But the real money and record margin is in refining. How to double your money at 90% capacity? Work a crisis. Create  a shortage. A dearth of diesel apparently. Even if there are lakes of it in Canada, an already existing pipeline away. Europe is exporting Gasoline to New York to get some of those mega bucks.  Russia is still exporting 66% of it's Oil and distillates at hefty discount to spot. Gas is exempt from sanctions in Europe. This inconvenient knowledge detracts from the melt up of Gasoline...to the moon...May gasoline futures market  is trading 1000 points higher than spot( again), last day of April futures trading  the price melted up 1500 points and settled 700 points above spot! Obviously no arbitrage opportunities there, just an orgasmic price love in for those involved. They are fixing to do it again this month, except sleepy Joe and his darned release of strategic reserves getting in the way, plus  price destruction from high prices and low volumes leading to higher stocks of WTI and Gasoline drawdown being less than hoped for. Who would have thought? Chicago CBOB had realised the game and were refusing to play and have been consistently trading at 2300 point +/- discount throughout. 

Obviously, no one in forward planning at Big Oil HQ, or commodity trading houses, or Hedge fund money managers thought of any of these scenarios and were simply looking after Joe and Joleen Public and saving them from energy price shocks,(while making reasonable profits) as opposed to exploiting the situation for record profits and bonuses and then blame Putin the **** (for he has become one) or sleepy Joe Biden and his incompetent lunatic leftish public servants.

There is no shortage of oil, China has lots of it when it returns to work next year, America has lots of it, Europe has somehow manged to source enough of it. There are reserves a plenty and barring a nuclear war Russia will continue to export a sh*t ton of it at a discount. The illusion of Oil and gasoline shortage is just that; an illusion. And darn sleepy Joe Biden is doing his utmost to pop it. What a donk.

[skyreach]

WELCOME TO THE WORLD OF VESTED INTERESTS!

From the Oxford American English Dictionary:

VESTED INTEREST:-   A personal stake or involvement in an undertaking or state of affairs, especially one with an expectation of a financial gain

Examples:-  

Bankers primarily want individuals, governments, private companies, ete... to take out loans so they can earn money. More loans, more money made, as now many governments, individuals and companies have the highest ever debts in their history.

Cost of goods, services, and energy costs have shot up due to the initial commodities price RISES BEGAN OVER A YEAR AGO. That was the PRIMARY CAUSE in this period. Huge rises occurred which IN TURN increased the prices of other items, including Inflation. Key market analysts will have known this so vested interest make use of this to benefit them. Oil companies make billions more profit which DOES NOT TO GO BACK INTO INVESTMENT, BUT SHARE BUYBACKS AND DIVIDENDS --  in the meantime these companies do NOT reduce their debt levels.  Guess who benefits?

Big companies or mid size ones can be served by PR Firms representing them THROUGH THE LOBBY SYSTEM with access to government and top Mandarins, it is done via top influencers (super rich powerful individuals). And if you watch the TV series on "Yes, Prime Minister" then you will get how government really works -- other than the funny parts in it, the key cultural practice still works similarly in real life, it has not changed much. STILL, IF YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW THE CIVIL SERVICE WORKS THEN YOU HAVE TO READ:-  

"THE CIVIL SERVANTS"  --  An Inquiry into Britain's Ruling Class

By   Peter Kellner and Lord Crowther-Hunt

pub:  1980 UK

 

 

 

 

[786Trader]

@ SKyrocket..

                          Indeed, it would appear market function precludes considerable prior and ongoing manipulation by interests less concerned with public well being and more concerned with self enrichment. Not conspiracy, simply accurate recognition of the nature of the beast. Gasoline market is symptomatic of the frenzy for Fomo, where good sense, reason and probity are sacrificed at the altar of the great God of Profit (and not forgetting shareholder value). As greed it  seems, cannot last the course and is myopic and avaricious to boot. But that's the system we have, it is the human condition that needs an upgrade, as our economic systems only mirror the current human condition, which quite obviously needs quite a lot of work to be fit for purpose!

As it is gasoline is heading back to the more established relationship it has with WTI and should land at around 31600 =/- 1500...maybe higher.....but the Fomo seems to have eased as the market enters a more risk off state and Gasoline is no longer the only game in town. Plus sleepy Joe is selling a million barrels a day......which should come as some relief to Joe and Joleen Public....

[skyreach]

INTERESTING VIEWPOINT 786TRADER.

     QUESTION ARE INDIVIDUALS IN CHARGE OF THE FINANCIAL WORLD READY FOR A MORE JUST OR ETHICAL PRACTICES??

     OR, will greed run away too far and have a KNOCK-ON CONSEQUENCES FOR THE REST OF SOCIETY, and for those concerned. Any underhanded practices builds up as guilt and blaming of others for faults. That's human nature.

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

On 17/05/2022 at 22:51, 786Trader said:

If there's one thing more frustrating than the end of a great illusion, it's a bubble being popped

Hi @786Trader

Thanks for sharing.

It’s hard to tell when the crypto bubble will burst, or if there is one ? Bitcoin is likely to continue to exist because, as the world’s first cryptocurrency, it is owned and used by more than 150 million people.

What is your take and view on Bitcoin, bubble burst or it will still continue?

 

Thanks

MongiIG

[THT]

32 minutes ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @786Trader

Thanks for sharing.

It’s hard to tell when the crypto bubble will burst, or if there is one ? Bitcoin is likely to continue to exist because, as the world’s first cryptocurrency, it is owned and used by more than 150 million people.

What is your take and view on Bitcoin, bubble burst or it will still continue?

 

Thanks

MongiIG

I agree, although it WON'T become the worlds reserve currency or replacement for gold - UNLESS the people who own the FED allow it to happen, which will mean that they've done a deal to benefit from it somehow

Imagine you holding the worlds reserve currency, backed by gold (to which there's not enough gold mined to cover your debt) there's no way you'll let a new rival currency take over, unless of course its YOU that's bringing the new currency to the table so you profit from it and don't lose out on the old currency etc

THT

[skyreach]

CRYPTO BUBBLE?

Looking at the crypto charts it IS clear that, like th Bitcoin, it has overall fallen over 50% from the all time high.

So, the Q. that the Bitcoin bubble has bust or not is: YES, it has.

Q now should be how far to the low before it heads north?

Too many dooms day professionals or the media, .... wanting to influence a beaish influence.

Digital currencies and cryptos are here to stay. Q will be which ones survive down the road.