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Trade of the Month


Guest DanC

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You too JB,

 

Recent price action has forced me to reconsider my wave count. When I have a alternate rational count that fits I'll be back:) and I'll share it here.

 

I might even have a look at ASX200 at some time in the future ......

 

Good luck to you

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I am long USDCAD at 13201 (13375 as I write).  I am unsure as to whether we have seen the top of this market or not.  At a minimum I expect this rally to get to the Fib 50% (13930ish).  That's 700 points for those doing the maths.  However, if I am right about Oil (see post on Shell as a proxy for Oil) then maybe we have yet to see the high on USDCAD (it moves in opposition to Oil as I'm sure you all know).  In that case I'm targeting in excess of 14700.  There will be plenty of swings between now and then for sure but I'll be waiting for the next pullback to add to the first position and then do a split bet strategy (cash one at the Fib retrace and hold one longer to see what happens).  Oh and I'm stop protected at break even so no loss potential at all on this one.

 

Here is the daily chart for visual ref:



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JB,

 

Did you get stopped out by the Draghi effect on this one?  I was long from the previous week at about 10850 but I get nervous at central banker announcement time and so cashed in at the completion of my Wave A (see hourly chart below).  I was hoping to get back in at Wave B but the move was too fast.  Now looking for a final leg up to complete Wave C and take a short to a final drop.  If that all works then sometime this week the price should hit around the 11250 mark (that's the 62%Fib from the Aug 2015 Wave 4 high) and then drop to, well who know how far it will drop?  Beyond 10500, maybe as far as parity.  That would be a nice 1250 points.

 

Here are the charts:



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Re: GbpChf - Moving the stop to 1.4030 on this one to lock in a profit.

 

AudCad short below 99.40 with a 50pip stop and 200pip limit

 

EurUsd long above 1.1125 with a 75pip stop and 350pip limit

 

FOMC meeting tonight so markets likely volatile. Keeping my risk low as a result.

 

Good luck out there!

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

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JB,

 

Watch out for the EURUSD, if you are going for a short term long ok but as you mentioned the FOMC is likely to impact volatility tonight and as I outlined in my post I am stalking this one for a serious medium term short.

 

On a related cross a trade I took this morning was EURGBP short at 7862.  The rational, as illustrated on the charts below, is that long term we may have had a classic A-B-C retrace (or a 1-3 of 5 EWs) don't know which yet but under either scenario it should drop now.  Price has touched and rebounded of the 76% Fib and there is significant Negative Momentum Divergence on both Daily and hourly charts.  Additionally both Stochastic and RSI are high but have come down vs the previous high.  On the daily chart you can see some quite nice tramlines with a kiss on the underside of the long term line on 25 Feb and another on the bottom of the triangle this morning.  These are very bearish signals taken all together and drive me towards the A-B-C scenario, which would be a big move down.  Also if you look at EURUSD and GBPUSD I think both will go up in the short term but the GBP more strongly before both drop but the EUR further in the medium term, all of shich supports a decent drop in the EURGBP.

 

This is active right now so check it out and let me know what you think.

 

Here are some charts:



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New trade opportunity!

 

Despite the budget being alledgedly beneficial to Oil companies I can't see that moving the global Oil market and my by analysis I see Shell topping out a 1-5 up to a Wa with an ending triangle formation at the top.  Typically I see 1-5 within the triangle with the 5 touch on the line as the high (or low) point.  We almost have this now on Shell with some Negative Momentum Divergence on the hourly.  I have taken a cheeky short at 1705.  If I'm right the Wb could drop to the 1500 mark before a Wc rally to complete the move.

 

Here is the chart:



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Hey Mercury

 

Re: EurGbp short - it is not a trade I would take.

It broke higher the day before and while it closed at resistance there was no signal of reversal using the parameters that I use.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

I think its fantastic that you have joined the thread and are posting regularly.

 

I hope we can all benefit by sharing ideas.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

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Hi JB,

 

Can you let us know the parameters you mentioned, just to have background on your take?

 

You may well be right on EURGBP, can be a tricky market as it really depends on EURUSD and GBPUSD.  I prefer to trade USD crosses for that reason.  Also I guess because you are bullish EURUSD you might also be bullish EURGBP?

 

As always with these things it could go either way and taking a FX trade close to FOMC is risky.  The price did pop a bit to the 82% Fib, which is very high, and then met more resistance there.  In addition the Neg Mom Div remains strong, with bearish signals on RSI.  I think today will tell the tale on this one and also EURUSD.  As previously posted I am berish EURUSD, will update that post in a bit.

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Update on my EURUSD take for post FOMC price action:

 

So far things are going according expectation with a pop to complete an A-B-C relief rally in play (assuming that is right...).  I have an updated Daily chart with a nice triangle formation (Blue lines).  If right the A-B-C move should top out at or near the top triangle line, in our around the 62% Fib off the last major high.

 

I have gone short at the 62% point (11252) with stops above the triangle line.

 

here are the charts:



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USDCAD Long didn't work long term, had a decent 150pips before FOMC chaos, fortunately had protective stops in so no loss incurred and we live to fight another day on this one.

 

Time for a rethink, I'll let things play out for a few days before considering this and it has a lot to do with what Oil does.  Will post again on this in a few but I'm still stalking either a relief rally of another leg up to new highs.

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Guest jamko

Nice work Mercury I fully agree but being the cheapskate I am I hope to wring the last few points out of this wave before I go short just to save a couple of dollars on my stop

 

Cheers

jamko

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Guest jamko

Yes mate EUR/USD it is, you may be onto it with the 76.4% I have trend lines in place that put it around there but I am hard pressed to find a strong enough resistence line, perhaps I'm not looking hard enough ?

By the way have been watching the DX ( US dollar basket ) for the exact opposite of this ?

 

Cheers

jamko

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USD (DFB).pngUSDW (DFB).png

 

Hi All,

 

Great to see so much discussion on this board now. I've just taken a short position at 11338.7 on the basis that this is another (very Tricky!) 4th wave triangle. I'm unsure yet whether the last wave was "E" or still part of "D" but the basis for the trade is that neither wave can exceed "c" @ 11376.6 (if the triangle hypothesis is correct) so my stop is place just above that @11380.4. Couple of charts attached to see my rationale.

 

Good luck to everyone.

 

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HI Jamko, welcome.

 

Yes I follow DX too. As EURUSD falls I'd expect DX to rise as that's the expected behaviour I believe. I've attached a chart which shows a 4th wave triangle and I'm expecting further sideways price action for the next month(s) as waves D & E complete. This should lead to a new high completing wave 5 after which I believe the dollar will begin a long-term decline.

 

Good luck

 

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Hi Mercury,

 

I'm out for a few pips profit as I saw this triangle forming on the 5 and 1 min charts. This means there's further upside to come and I can take some profit now and get a better entry later.

The larger degree Triangle we've been discussing remains valid as long as the High at 11376 isn't breached. However if it is breached it's back to the drawing board for me......

 

Your higher stop offers better protection .

 

USD (DFB).png

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Re: EURUSD long

 

I have moved my stop up to 1.1240 with my TP 1.14

 

Looking to go long GBPAUD if it can get to 1.9005 with an 80pip stop and 180pip limit

 

Good luck out there people.

 

So great to see this thread is now so active.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

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Hi Welshman,

 

I never look at anything below 15mins, did in the past but often got wrong signals as it is just too unpredictable for me.  Day traders use 5 mins a lot but I don't subscribe to that mode of trading.  On the 15mins there is a valid 1-5 count up from the Mar16 12.00 wave, which suggests this rally is done, however there could easily be another leg up first and as price has broken the 62% Fib I would certainly not rule that out.

 

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Hi JB,

 

Can you explain your rational for the GBPAUS Long?  I have been tracking this for a while, looking for another strong leg up but now my reading is that the big trend is down so your position would be counter trend.  It does look like a counter trend rally is shaping up and could be a good 1000 point or more so worth considering but I have always found it hard to pinpoint such turning points, the retrace points on the main trend are easier and generally more lucrative.

 

Look forward to hearing about your rational and supporting analysis.

 

M

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Hi Aviationforex,

 

I have been long EurUsd from 1.1125 as you can see from my earlier posts.

I still have a target of 1.1405 and have moved my stop to 1.1235

 

I will also go short EurJpy today if it can break Friday's low.

So order is loaded to short at 125.25 with a 55pip Stop and 230pip limit

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

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Guest AviationForex

Hi JB,

 

Thanks for the post. Are you trading GBP/USD aswell or are you staying away due to its volitality. Im short on both (EUR/USD & GBP/USD) for near/medium term. Still waiting for the dust to settle after last weeks data. However, Tuesdays calendar will tell me if im right or wrong. Sentiment should have finished by then and technicals will be back in play.

 

Happy trading.

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