Gold 2024 Commodity BOOM! (ECM) 🚀

[CGETrading]

XAU/USD Forecast for 2024->2032

• First Target: $3000
• Long Term Forecast: $6000

Edited October 28, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

Thanks for sharing @Carl-Gustav

All the best - MongiIG

[MongiIG]

 

[CGETrading]

Daily Time Frame: MIDAS Top-Bottom Finder reached 100% today, indicating that the fuel associated with the current uptrend has FADED. A pullback to MIDAS now becomes likely which is in alignment with cyclical support.

Weekly Time Frame: Price is trading between weekly resistance and the break-line generated from the low (origin of uptrend) creating a bullish Pennant pattern. Major support currently lies at 1940.

Monthly Time Frame: Here we have a Trap Play to the upside! This is a significant event, warning of a potential WATERFALL EVENT TO THE UPSIDE. The angle of the light-red colored cycle is revealing the direction and angle of the market going forward (a future roadmap).

What to make of all this? Buy Gold!  at 1940 🚀

[CGETrading]

Read more about the 3 Time Unit Reaction Rule here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-3-unit-of-time-reaction-rule/

The Monthly Trap Play will challenge a break (and most likely break) above the 2000 level before February 1st 2024.

The ECM is poiting to a major turning point in the economy come May 7/8th 2024.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[Jersey]

Very clear gold development trends. Thanks for sharing these ideas.

[CGETrading]

 

On 02/11/2023 at 16:17, Carl-Gustav said:

Daily Time Frame: MIDAS Top-Bottom Finder reached 100% today, indicating that the fuel associated with the current uptrend has FADED. A pullback to MIDAS now becomes likely which is in alignment with cyclical support.

Weekly Time Frame: Price is trading between weekly resistance and the break-line generated from the low (origin of uptrend) creating a bullish Pennant pattern. Major support currently lies at 1940.

Monthly Time Frame: Here we have a Trap Play to the upside! This is a significant event, warning of a potential WATERFALL EVENT TO THE UPSIDE. The angle of the light-red colored cycle is revealing the direction and angle of the market going forward (a future roadmap).

What to make of all this? Buy Gold!  at 1940 🚀

Update: 1940 level holding strong, will we break above 2000 this month? 😄

Edited November 16, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

Update: We are now currently trading above the 2000 level. Resistance stands at the 2007 area, which is the level we need to CLOSE above this week before we can see an advance to the upside.

If we close above resistance this week then a close above 2000 becomes likely this month! 🤑

[MongiIG]

 

[MongiIG]

Hi @Carl-Gustav

 

[CGETrading]

Update: Gold closed ABOVE 2000 for the first time (on a monthly basis) and is now pushing higher towards the all time high which stands at 2080.

[CGETrading]

Here we go!!! Gold making record highs 🚀🚀🚀

The level to watch going forward is 2133 👀, which is the weekly cyclical resistance. We need a close (preferably 1%) above this level at the end of the week before moving any higher. High volatility is to be expected throughout December.

🤑

[MongiIG]

10 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Here we go!!! Gold making record highs 🚀🚀🚀

 

[THT]

Basic chart reading

THT

[THT]

Had this on my chart (daily) for a long time

Next watch for one of those 2 scenarios above unfolding

THT

[CGETrading]

1 hour ago, THT said:

Basic chart reading

THT

Thanks for sharing @THT

I highly doubt that gold will fall below the 1900 level, which is the lowest support level on the monthly time frame.

Right now, the current pullback in gold is nothing but a FALSE MOVE to the downside which ALWAYS takes place before a REAL BREAKOUT. This FALSE MOVE can last no longer than 1-3 time units and is simply the REQUIRED movement of markets.

Gold is setting up for a major sling-shot to the upside.

[MongiIG]

19 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Gold is setting up for a major sling-shot to the upside.

 

[CGETrading]

Today is NFP, a lot of volatility is expected. Todays close (weekly close) will determine the short term future. Support stands at 2K.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

38 minutes ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Today is NFP

Non-farm payrolls in focus for Fed’s next move

In the US, the focus is on non-farm payrolls for the month of November, due at 1.30pm (UK) today.

 

 Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: Friday 08 December 2023 10:52

For a few weeks now, the market has been trying to figure out how soon the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has the latest.

The US Federal Reserve's decision

The big thing that traders are looking out for is the release of the non-farm payrolls report for November in the US. This report will give us a good idea of how many jobs were added or lost and could affect the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Right now, there's a tool called CME FedWatch that predicts a 90% chance of a rate cut by May 2024 and a 60% chance of a cut at the March meeting. So, if the report shows that not a lot of jobs were added, the chances of a rate cut happening sooner rather than later might go up.

The JOLTs report

There are a couple of other reports that are giving us some clues. One is the JOLTs report, which showed that job openings decreased a lot and reached the lowest level since March 2021. Another is the ADP survey, which found that private businesses hired 103,000 workers in November, which was less than expected. These reports are making traders pay more attention to the non-farm payrolls data.

 

People are really interested in the non-farm payrolls report, and you can see that because the price of the US dollar has gone up a little bit. The experts have different ideas about what the report will say. Some think around 100,000 to 275,000 jobs were added, but the average guess is around 180,000. This would be better than October, when 150,000 jobs were added. But keep in mind that around 30,000 workers had come back to work after being on strike.

They think the unemployment rate will stay the same at 3.9%, which is the highest it's been since January 2022. And they predict that hourly earnings will have gone up about 0.3% from October and 4% compared to last year. Overall, this report is an important one for traders because it could affect interest rates. It's interesting to see the different forecasts and what they mean for the job market and the economy.

 

 

 

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[CGETrading]

This week gold closed above the important 2K level, a closing below would have suggested a mass exit to the downside (Trap Play). Gold remains bullish for now - as long as this level holds on a weekly closing basis.

A close below the 2K level would suggest a possible decline down to1.9K, but for now the uptrend remains intact with daily and weekly cyclical support aligning at the psychological 2K level.

[CGETrading]

The cycle indicator that I am using for MT4 can be downloaded here<--

[CGETrading]

H4 Time Frame: Made an interesting observation. Looks like gold is in "Cycle Pattern #2"...



Daily Time Frame: Gold is currently challenging cyclical support - an important level, a closing below would suggest a further decline, unless price creates a bearish reversal by immediately closing back inside the cycle. If this happens, we will have a low or temporarily low in place.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

Gold is now trading 6 days down from the high, which could be a cyclical turning point. There is a divergence to the upside and yesterdays close failed to close below cyclical support. Fow now, this is pointing to a temporarily or major low.

[MongiIG]

2 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Gold is now trading 6 days down from the high, which could be a cyclical turning point. There is a divergence to the upside and yesterdays close failed to close below cyclical support. Fow now, this is pointing to a temporarily or major low.

Thanks for sharing @Carl-Gustav

All the best - MongiIG

[CGETrading]

Up to this point, the bottom of bearish cycle count 6 has not been breached. It appears that we might be witnessing the initial phases of a potential upward shift in direction.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

Good morning,

Bearish cycle count 6 turned out to be a MAJOR LOW. A bullish V-formation has formed on the daily chart, indicating a fresh leg to the upside and the start of leg 3 on the weekly chart. We are now heading towards a re-test of the all time high. Will it break?  Its just a matter of TIME. Trading is nothing but TIME, thats why cycles work. Cycles reveals everything about the market. If you dont have the cycles on your chart, or at least the major ones, you really know NOTHING. The great thing about cycles is that they tell you WHEN and WHERE you are wrong. Everything in the universe has a cycle to it, and so does price.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

Gold prices eyeing for a move back to retest key resistance

After failing to sustain a breakout above the US$2,074 level back on 4 December 2023, the yellow metal has found new signs of life overnight, with the green light on the rate-cuts narrative from the Fed. The overnight upmove has pared all of this week’s losses, with prices seemingly setting its sight for another retest of the US$2,074 level of resistance, which marked a crucial overhead resistance on multiple previous occasions (May 2023, March 2022 and August 2020).

For now, the broader upward trend remains intact, with prices trading after its Ichimoku cloud zone on the daily chart after an upward break in October 2023, alongside various MAs. A successful move above the US$2,074 level may pave the way towards the all-time high at the US$2,146 level next. On the downside, the daily Ichimoku cloud zone will serve as an area of support for buyers to defend.

 

Source: IG charts

 

Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 14 December 2023 03:51

[CGETrading]

On 05/12/2023 at 15:31, Carl-Gustav said:

Thanks for sharing @THT

I highly doubt that gold will fall below the 1900 level, which is the lowest support level on the monthly time frame.

Right now, the current pullback in gold is nothing but a FALSE MOVE to the downside which ALWAYS takes place before a REAL BREAKOUT. This FALSE MOVE can last no longer than 1-3 time units and is simply the REQUIRED movement of markets.

Gold is setting up for a major sling-shot to the upside.

Gold H4 chart is ready to pop to the upside as price fails to retrace past the 20% pullback rule.
Slingshot move to the upside, is it ready?  

The H4 cycle is pretty steep, revealing that the energy strored in price is explosive and has a high energy outburst. This presents us with a low risk entry to the upside, at least on a short term basis /H4.

Learn more about the Slingshot Move here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/slingshot-move/

Edited December 15, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

11 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Gold H4 chart is ready to pop to the upside as price fails to retrace past the 20% pullback rule.
Slingshot move to the upside, is it ready?  

The H4 cycle is pretty steep, revealing that the energy strored in price is explosive and has a high energy outburst. This presents us with a low risk entry to the upside, at least on a short term basis /H4.

Learn more about the Slingshot Move here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/slingshot-move/

The attempt to break through the reversals failed which generated a temporary Trap Play to the downside. Support currently stands at the 2018-2020 level as we approach the end of the weeks closing price.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

H4 chart of gold is starting to gain momentum as price remains above support. Higher highs are likely to follow.