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Gold 2024 Commodity BOOM! (ECM) 🚀


CGETrading

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Daily Time Frame: MIDAS Top-Bottom Finder reached 100% today, indicating that the fuel associated with the current uptrend has FADED. A pullback to MIDAS now becomes likely which is in alignment with cyclical support.

Weekly Time Frame: Price is trading between weekly resistance and the break-line generated from the low (origin of uptrend) creating a bullish Pennant pattern. Major support currently lies at 1940.

Monthly Time Frame: Here we have a Trap Play to the upside! This is a significant event, warning of a potential WATERFALL EVENT TO THE UPSIDE. The angle of the light-red colored cycle is revealing the direction and angle of the market going forward (a future roadmap).

What to make of all this? Buy Gold! :D at 1940 🚀

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Read more about the 3 Time Unit Reaction Rule here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-3-unit-of-time-reaction-rule/

The Monthly Trap Play will challenge a break (and most likely break) above the 2000 level before February 1st 2024.

The ECM is poiting to a major turning point in the economy come May 7/8th 2024.

Edited by Carl-Gustav
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  • 2 weeks later...

 

On 02/11/2023 at 16:17, Carl-Gustav said:

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Daily Time Frame: MIDAS Top-Bottom Finder reached 100% today, indicating that the fuel associated with the current uptrend has FADED. A pullback to MIDAS now becomes likely which is in alignment with cyclical support.

Weekly Time Frame: Price is trading between weekly resistance and the break-line generated from the low (origin of uptrend) creating a bullish Pennant pattern. Major support currently lies at 1940.

Monthly Time Frame: Here we have a Trap Play to the upside! This is a significant event, warning of a potential WATERFALL EVENT TO THE UPSIDE. The angle of the light-red colored cycle is revealing the direction and angle of the market going forward (a future roadmap).

What to make of all this? Buy Gold! :D at 1940 🚀


Update: 1940 level holding strong, will we break above 2000 this month? 😄

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Edited by Carl-Gustav
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Update: We are now currently trading above the 2000 level. Resistance stands at the 2007 area, which is the level we need to CLOSE above this week before we can see an advance to the upside.

If we close above resistance this week then a close above 2000 becomes likely this month! 🤑


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  • 2 weeks later...

Here we go!!! Gold making record highs 🚀🚀🚀

The level to watch going forward is 2133 👀, which is the weekly cyclical resistance. We need a close (preferably 1%) above this level at the end of the week before moving any higher. High volatility is to be expected throughout December.

🤑

Gold Record Highs.png

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1 hour ago, THT said:

Basic chart reading

THT

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Thanks for sharing @THT

I highly doubt that gold will fall below the 1900 level, which is the lowest support level on the monthly time frame.

Right now, the current pullback in gold is nothing but a FALSE MOVE to the downside which ALWAYS takes place before a REAL BREAKOUT. This FALSE MOVE can last no longer than 1-3 time units and is simply the REQUIRED movement of markets.

Gold is setting up for a major sling-shot to the upside.

Lowest Support.png

Gold Leg 3.png

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38 minutes ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Today is NFP

Non-farm payrolls in focus for Fed’s next move

In the US, the focus is on non-farm payrolls for the month of November, due at 1.30pm (UK) today.

 

 Angela Barnes | Financial presenter/producer, London | Publication date: 

For a few weeks now, the market has been trying to figure out how soon the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has the latest.

The US Federal Reserve's decision

The big thing that traders are looking out for is the release of the non-farm payrolls report for November in the US. This report will give us a good idea of how many jobs were added or lost and could affect the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Right now, there's a tool called CME FedWatch that predicts a 90% chance of a rate cut by May 2024 and a 60% chance of a cut at the March meeting. So, if the report shows that not a lot of jobs were added, the chances of a rate cut happening sooner rather than later might go up.

The JOLTs report

There are a couple of other reports that are giving us some clues. One is the JOLTs report, which showed that job openings decreased a lot and reached the lowest level since March 2021. Another is the ADP survey, which found that private businesses hired 103,000 workers in November, which was less than expected. These reports are making traders pay more attention to the non-farm payrolls data.

 

People are really interested in the non-farm payrolls report, and you can see that because the price of the US dollar has gone up a little bit. The experts have different ideas about what the report will say. Some think around 100,000 to 275,000 jobs were added, but the average guess is around 180,000. This would be better than October, when 150,000 jobs were added. But keep in mind that around 30,000 workers had come back to work after being on strike.

They think the unemployment rate will stay the same at 3.9%, which is the highest it's been since January 2022. And they predict that hourly earnings will have gone up about 0.3% from October and 4% compared to last year. Overall, this report is an important one for traders because it could affect interest rates. It's interesting to see the different forecasts and what they mean for the job market and the economy.

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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This week gold closed above the important 2K level, a closing below would have suggested a mass exit to the downside (Trap Play). Gold remains bullish for now - as long as this level holds on a weekly closing basis.

A close below the 2K level would suggest a possible decline down to1.9K, but for now the uptrend remains intact with daily and weekly cyclical support aligning at the psychological 2K level.

Weekly Chart.png

Weekly Closing-Daily Chart.png

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H4 Time Frame: Made an interesting observation. Looks like gold is in "Cycle Pattern #2"...
CyclePattern2.thumb.png.0de07b64b4311f178a785f42dfe3982a.png


Daily Time Frame: Gold is currently challenging cyclical support - an important level, a closing below would suggest a further decline, unless price creates a bearish reversal by immediately closing back inside the cycle. If this happens, we will have a low or temporarily low in place.

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Edited by Carl-Gustav
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Good morning,

Bearish cycle count 6 turned out to be a MAJOR LOW. A bullish V-formation has formed on the daily chart, indicating a fresh leg to the upside and the start of leg 3 on the weekly chart. We are now heading towards a re-test of the all time high. Will it break? :) Its just a matter of TIME. Trading is nothing but TIME, thats why cycles work. Cycles reveals everything about the market. If you dont have the cycles on your chart, or at least the major ones, you really know NOTHING. The great thing about cycles is that they tell you WHEN and WHERE you are wrong. Everything in the universe has a cycle to it, and so does price.

 

Major Low.png

Edited by Carl-Gustav
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Gold prices eyeing for a move back to retest key resistance

After failing to sustain a breakout above the US$2,074 level back on 4 December 2023, the yellow metal has found new signs of life overnight, with the green light on the rate-cuts narrative from the Fed. The overnight upmove has pared all of this week’s losses, with prices seemingly setting its sight for another retest of the US$2,074 level of resistance, which marked a crucial overhead resistance on multiple previous occasions (May 2023, March 2022 and August 2020).

For now, the broader upward trend remains intact, with prices trading after its Ichimoku cloud zone on the daily chart after an upward break in October 2023, alongside various MAs. A successful move above the US$2,074 level may pave the way towards the all-time high at the US$2,146 level next. On the downside, the daily Ichimoku cloud zone will serve as an area of support for buyers to defend.

 

Spot GoldSource: IG charts
 
Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: 
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On 05/12/2023 at 15:31, Carl-Gustav said:

Thanks for sharing @THT

I highly doubt that gold will fall below the 1900 level, which is the lowest support level on the monthly time frame.

Right now, the current pullback in gold is nothing but a FALSE MOVE to the downside which ALWAYS takes place before a REAL BREAKOUT. This FALSE MOVE can last no longer than 1-3 time units and is simply the REQUIRED movement of markets.

Gold is setting up for a major sling-shot to the upside.

Lowest Support.png

Gold Leg 3.png


Gold H4 chart is ready to pop to the upside as price fails to retrace past the 20% pullback rule.
Slingshot move to the upside, is it ready? :) 

The H4 cycle is pretty steep, revealing that the energy strored in price is explosive and has a high energy outburst. This presents us with a low risk entry to the upside, at least on a short term basis /H4.

Learn more about the Slingshot Move here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/slingshot-move/

Slingshot Move.png

Edited by Carl-Gustav
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11 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:


Gold H4 chart is ready to pop to the upside as price fails to retrace past the 20% pullback rule.
Slingshot move to the upside, is it ready? :) 

The H4 cycle is pretty steep, revealing that the energy strored in price is explosive and has a high energy outburst. This presents us with a low risk entry to the upside, at least on a short term basis /H4.

Learn more about the Slingshot Move here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/slingshot-move/

Slingshot Move.png

The attempt to break through the reversals failed which generated a temporary Trap Play to the downside. Support currently stands at the 2018-2020 level as we approach the end of the weeks closing price.

Trap Play.png

Edited by Carl-Gustav
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