ASX200

[Guest Zero]

A 400pt fall on the Dow recovered, with a 50pt rally in the dying minutes of the session.  The SPI had a large range, with a new high into its session close.  

 

Expect a relax on open to recover and range 1pm.  Lower range over the afternoon, higher range into end of day.  

[Guest Zero]

The ASX was slapped back to reality today - after a quiet open, the algo's did two things before letting the bottom fall out of the SPI (hinting it was one-way traffic from then). At about 11:50am.  Strong selling pushed the SPI down about 30pts to erase most (if not all) of yesterday's gain.  Selling by the big players, which continued over lunch - though it steadied then to be more of a range.  I expected a relax - it was more pure selling.  But my expected sentiments were correct.  

The Dow and China were both negative too, yet they recovered leaving the ASX to its own devices (again).  

 

Selling continued after 1pm, yet it was basically a continuation of the range, with the market comfortable here at this level (6046 SPI XJO 6066.  Yet the Dow and China have both rallied, and the DAX is up 75, the FTSE up 34 suggesting a positive start for those markets.  

 

Binaries are not priced to my liking as IG are too expensive.  If you wanted to sell you'd get good value, yet I was anticipating a positive close.  The down 20-30 range for 36 might be interesting, yet the price would have changed by now.  

 

Volume strong on the SPI, and overnight, yet on the cash (XJO) it is below average.  Banks are the biggest losers today, down about 1.0% each.  BHP flat-positive, RIO down a little, a bit of a defensive rotation it seems.  Lower volume so not a big deal.  

 

A day where the Dow is up and we sell off - the opposite to the week yet keeping the anti-correlation theme going.  Bizzarro market.

 

NFP tonight.

[Guest Zero]

The XJO close was more of the same - selling into the range.  Good value on the binary sell - the XJO was 6065 on the dot at 4pm, and IG were selling at 55.  When I looked earlier, there was a bit more juice in the price as it was a 68 sell, XJO only 6066ish.  

I would have missed out on a trade - conflicted signals (even though the obvious was .... obvious in hindsight) and prices.   The waiting side of trading - who just posted that (EA Trader) - Bill Lipschutz. And as Caseynotes mentioned yesterday, you'll get a decent move then have to deal with the channel (daily).  So lots going on today to give the trading skills a workout.

As well, the SPI-XJO internal correlation narrowed during the day, widened into the close. Nothing mysterious  - most futures contracts will be pricing the underlying cash market in anticipation, so there is always a premium or discount between the two.   

 

The range is holding as of now, yet on the EU open the Dow was hit down, from +24 near 4pm to -20 now.  

 

Edit: Spelling.

[Guest Zero]

Monday started strongly on the back of Sat. morning's gains, yet it was basically selling into this strength till 12pm.  China woke up and it dragged us higher into 1pm (+4 to +33 to +66 after 1pm) along with the Dow futures, which were about +25 to +50 to +80ish similarly.  I took a longer range binary into 1pm - at 12:38 the 6095 ladder was cheap between 37-40 buy as the XJO relaxed a touch (6094.40).  Expired at 100 XJO 6099.40.  

Then the selling kicked in, taking the SPI to its lows (the XJO still +20ish), and more strongly after 2pm to new lows by 4 where it ranged.  Just in the last 10mins making new lows from this range by 3 pts - so sort of a fumbling range lower.  I expected a stronger close inside the range, so might have to update that expectation or sit out.  The selling is decent, and volume good.  Potentially the 6080 ladder for 49 buy.

 

The XJO started with the majors all higher (except NAB) - one of our big banks (Westpac, WBC) announced a $4.2billion half-year profit, up 7% but in line with expectations.  That must have shown up the NAB who reported last week, so it was up while the NAB a touch lower.  Now they are up or down 20-80cents, RIO just positive, yet BHP up 1.5% - the best of the majors.  

Apart from WBC and NAB, volumes lower than average on the cash market.  

That rally kicked in as expected, yet the selling strength may still influence the last 10mins.  We'll see.  The Nikkei has finally woken up after  a flat day, that might give things a boost. 

 

Edit: Sat morning not night as originally.

[Guest Zero]

Like a wrestling move - ramp the SPI up 10pts into and after 4pm, then slam it down 10pts into the 4:10pm close.  Decent buying and selling too.  All of that kept the XJO a touch higher (v the 4pm level) into the close, 6084.50 (in the 20-30 range).  That 6080 was a good buy, and the positive expectation was ok.  Yet hard to trade in real-time.

 

As of now 4:22pm the market is relaxing back to the low as other markets come off a touch.  

[Guest EA-trader]

Thanks for the thread

 

.Opened my eyes and created food  thought.:smileyhappy:

[Guest Zero]

  Thanks for the encouraging words.  Good to know.  Cheers.

[Guest Zero]

Bit of a dud day really - early gains from the overnight rally didn't inspire the market, with a small sell off on the open rallying back to a range.  That was just a set up for selling at those higher prices.  Interesting the high was the overnight high....  Held strong.  Selling into that in a 10pt range, with a small surge into 1pm.  Bit of a risky move but I took the 6109 binary (hourly)  for 37 pts and 42pts (buying) at 12:39pm.  There was a bit of ground to make up - XJO at 6107.40 - and the SPI was just meandering up till then.  But thankfully there was a small surge to take the XJO to 6109.40 and the binaries to 100.Try making that from a directional trade on a morning like today....  Other binaries were easily priced by IG and so not worth the risk.    

 

Maybe this afternoon it (a directional trade) would have been ok, if you got in on 2pm for 15pts - as after 1pm the weakness tried to rally but it wasn't convincing and the market just faded all afternoon.  Made new low with continual selling.  The Dow has kept its +20ish level, the Nikkei up 90 early but that has faded too, yet China opened strong, and has gotten stronger up around 50 (1.3%).  Its trade balance (USD denominated) was close to the expected value, and strong.  The $AUD has come off 200pips too.  

 

Oddly the FTSE futures (well IG's market) is down 45 (1.6%) and the DAX down 24 only 0.2%.  

 

On the cash index, the big three banks are up about 1% but NAB is still in the naughty corner, down 5 cents.  BHP is down 0.5% and Woodside (Petroleum) down a lot, 1.8%, considering Crude Oil hit the $70.00 mark last night.  RIO positive up 0.4% (non-oil miner).

Volumes a touch low on the cash index however still strong on the SPI.  Seems to be becoming the norm these days.  I might have to tweak any expected "average volume" amounts.

 

Local news today is our Federal Budget being released tonight.  Already there are slow pre-releases so some of the news is being baked into the relevant share prices.  It is a pre-election budget (election still a way off) so everyone gets something sort of budget.  More money in the bank too for Aus which is good...  yet it is not really in the bank, but being spent on votes.  

 

Fed Chair tonight is always something to keep an eye on.  

 

Selling persisting now, and binaries are probably priced to be out of my risk range.  XJO +5 meaning easy to price.  A possible ladder to sell if that's the plan (was the plan earlier...) yet on investigation that they aren't priced well enough to justify the trade.  No need to try and make things happen (especially with 1pm working out ok).  

 

Edit: for clarity.  

[Guest Zero]

Flat close at 16:10 but there was some underlying buying, enough to kick the XJO up.  Not what I expected, yet I was staying out so would only have missed some decent buys (6089 and 6090 ladder at 40 and 45 buy).  

 

SPI has since rallied 7pts since the cash close at 4:10pm.  Not bad considering it kept a 5pt range at the lows for over an hour.  Short covering by some big players.  No external correlated moves, so local buying since 4pm.

 

Vols on the banks were good today, rest probably average.  

 

Buying before tonight ... hmm.  

[Caseynotes]

Air of uncertainty with regards to Trump presser today (7 pm BST) on the Iranian deal. Big consequences concerning geopolitical and oil either way. 

[Guest EA-trader]

Zero

There ,I made Aus200, grid EA in your forum handle name.

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/Indices-and-Macro-Events/ZERO-GRID-AUX200-automated-trader-EA-robot/m-p/26089#M2390

[Guest Zero]

I seem to have missed the last 30mins in my expected price moves for the day.  Up till then it was ok.  So I will wing it - yet the morning was more selling.  The open relaxed, had a re-think of that, revisiting a high that seems to be important - the 6093 level.  Had a few bites at it, and like I mentioned yesterday that was the high from Monday night, and the close of Friday (the high that night being 6098).  So it is a level where stuff is getting done.  

This morning it was selling, as the market then faded down to a tight range into 1pm.  A small 20pt fall, not much happening today.  

Binaries priced a bit skewed by IG into 1pm, but they picked the right side to bias their prices (pretending they do that) so that it was too exp. for me to buy.  The XJO was on 0 basically, about 0.5 either side.  So you'd expect the up/down binary to be 50:50.  Yet IG were 64 buy for the upside.  1pm the XJO was up 0.4 but 1min earlier just positive.  So a fine line between profit and loss.  The art of binary trading.  The better trade was the short an hour earlier at the high.  I was thinking of that, got distracted and then got left behind.  About 11:30am the market was hit - the Dow to -36 (v -14 earlier) the Nikkei to -100 v -40, and China -11 v -2.5 earlier.  So that started the slow fall into 1pm.  

The currencies were more active than usual, the USDJPY the standout up 450 pips, the $AUD coming off 200 (at about 11am).  

These have stayed much the same all day, and the Chinese index has weakened, -26, yet the Dow recovered  to about +2, and we followed.  After 1pm a small rally,which faded, so setting up the range, but that was broken at 3:30pm with that unexpected rise back to the high.  The buying significant too, but not urgent.  Not sure how I will play out the close, but first thoughts is to expect the levels to hold.  The 6110 ladder is good value to sell at 46 with the XJO 6107 3:45pm.  That is good value, yet a touch under my risk level.  If I had had a good morning or week so far, it might be worth the risk, BUT - like yesterday, the XJO should be higher than it is or the SPI will have to fall back a touch and the XJO stay unch.  If the XJO adjusts and not the SPI, all binaries will be torpedoed.  

 

As Caseynotes pointed out (thanks again) - the Donald was going to announce his Iran intentions, which created some volatility.  The headlines were that he was, he wasn't, he told Macron, he didn't.....  We know of course he did what everyone expected, so that didn't seem to cause much trouble today.

The local Federal Budget was generally positive, but what trumped that (problem using that term when it doesn't apply to him) by some political news - ongoing saga that members of Parliament have dual citizenship, which is against the law.  The High Court (the highest) ruled that a particular member of the opposition is ineligible to sit so her seat is up for changes, along with 3 of her colleagues (and their leader promised months ago in a signed statement they were all legit ...!)  Anyway, that has created political uncertainty, as other members of Parliament might be suspect, or it might be best to call an early election to sort it all out etc.  

Yet this afternoons mini rally doesn't fit this fundamental news - so it seems the markets aren't concerned about much.  It will be used in the near future to explain any surprise move I guess.

 

On the XJO BHP and Woodside are up over 1%, RIO just positive, banks likewise just positive, yet the CBA (our biggest) down 2.9%.  Unusual - they have agreed to settle over their manipulation of the Bank Bill Swap Rate, maybe the reason.  Volumes close to average.

 

A revisit to the high at the end of the day, slight selling kicking in.  Might keep my powder dry.  The 6110 ladder a sell at 62 or more, which is where I would err, the range binaries priced at 55 each for a buy so too high for me.   XJO at 6111.10 +19.20.

[Guest Zero]

Sold off on the close, then rallied back to high.  That held - 6093 - solid.  Can't tell me that is conventional buying and selling.  

Binary was good, the XJO closing at 6108. That 6110 ladder sold at 63 was a good trade.  

 

Two days in a row some buying after 4:10pm, which goes nowhere.  Hmm.

[JamesIG]

great run down today Zero

[Guest Zero]

  Cheers, thanks James.  

[Guest Zero]

I'd give $100 for anyone who could guess the low of today (on the SPI) yet it is a bit too easy to find out the answer...  Well, the day is still young in binary terms, 3:24pm, but I'll call it.  Make my own binaries...

 

After last night's rally on the back of irrational buying because of the Iran Deal withdrawal, the SPI opened even stronger than where it closed for the night session (at 7am).  The 6093 level, respected all day, was leaped over at 5pm (yesterday afternoon, just after it had held all day) and was treated like any other price as the SPI moved higher. Interesting - yet this morning there was a bit of a pause around the opening levels, a 7point rally to the high for the day, then down down down 28pts to a lunch range.  A local move as the Dow moved higher to +52, and China +13 at 11:30am.  

Nothing much was happening till about 12:53.  I could see a bit of selling pressure building up, but the binaries didn't seem to think it was going to amount to much.  Set up a good opportunity - buy the "up 0-10" range binary for 41, the XJO up 10.50 (so a good price to buy, a touch cheap which is good).  The selling kicked in so that became in the money, but the ladder binaries were still a bit slow to adjust to the move.  So I thought the 6117 ladder was worth a sell, at 68 (the spread 68-83, the XJO 6117.60 at 12:56).  Hopefully that is sort of obvious that it is a really good risk-reward - 4mins, XJO only has to fall 0.6, and the risk 32 to make 68.  

The selling pressure was there, but it seemed like there was no chance it was falling below 6116, the SPI 6095.  Oscillated here for the 4mins, amazing to watch - as if someone else was trading that ladder binary (6117).  Seems too controlled. 

Anyway, come 1pm, the XJO went from 6117.20 to 6116.80, +8.80, both binaries to 100.  Hmm.

 

Then the SPI ticked down a touch to make the algo's happy, and then popped higher about 10 to set up a tight range for the rest of the day including now 3:45pm.  Still selling here.  

The rest of Asia has kept its strength, the Nikkei up 80, China up 8 (though it did fall to +1) and the Dow up 45.  The DAX and FTSE seem to be starting strongly, though it seems there is a holiday???  BoE tonight too, but if they are like my RBA it might be a non-event.

Miners are strong on the XJO, up over 1.5% each (BHP RIO).  The star of the day (for my "watchlist" ie mostly the majors) is Woodside Petroleum, up over 5% on the back of crude oil (why I watch it).  I guess there is a bit more risk-factor baked into that than purely the price of oil moving higher overnight.  Banks mixed half-percent moves, Telstra (our biggest listed "telco") down 2%.  Volumes decent, average on average... (ie.  banks average, TLS above average, miners a touch below average - so far).

 

The small surge now has set up a selling opportunity (binaries, sell the ladder) but there isn't anything of value now 3:43pm, so I might wait.  No pressure.

 

The low by the way is 6094....

[Guest Zero]

Not on purpose, but often right when I post any suggestions for the close, the market moves and the tip becomes redundant.  Same thing today - the market sold down about 5 pts right as I posted so my suggestion to sell a ladder binary was a bit late.  Yet there was still life in the move, the next level ladder still a sell.  Well priced too, the 6120 ladder  a sell at 57, XJO 6120.40 at 3:58pm.  

That was looking borderline, until the last minute when there was a bit of a dump, pushing the SPI down to the magic number 6094.  That held - remarkable - the selling pressure was held off perfectly to keep that level.  There was a 4pt bounce, then back down - held again, and now 4:22pm another 4pt bounce.  

I only tell this as it is instructional - and pretty amazing.  

 

The XJO closed at 6118.70 so the binary was good.  

 

Right as I was going to post, the algo's made sure their perfection was obeyed, with a new low of 6092 yet that was in line with algo-logic.  This will hold till 4:30pm.  

 

The Dow and UK/EU has come off a touch since 4pm. 

[Caseynotes]

Yes Ger and French BH, dax went for a stroll up to tag the 13000 before returning to resistance turned support at 12960, just to prove it could do it. Would expect it to have another go during the day if the London session can produce enough volatility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

The Friday algo kicked into gear today, as the SPI and XJO meandered in a small-ish range.  It just doesn't want to move above these levels, despite some positive leads and context.  

 

A flat to positive start only invited more selling, fading the XJO's early gains (up 20ish)down about 15.  That steadied, then ranged higher into 1pm as expected.  There were no binaries on offer when I was watching, as the XJO was at a mid-range level, easy for IG to price so to speak.  No surprises there.  The Dow and the Nikkei led our surge into 12pm, the Dow moving from +20 to +44, the Nikkei +155 to plus 230.  They've stayed there all day, whereas China was not interested, starting flat and then falling 9 - nothing major.  Quiet on the FX front. 

 

In the afternoon, the ASX faded those gains back down near the low, setting up a range around the low (12pt range so far).  There's been constant selling, picking up a touch into the close now.  I expected a close off the bottom of the range, so in 5mins that will have to appear or else my predictions are wrong. Binaries 6120 ladder was cheap at a 37 buy a minute ago, yet now, with the XJO lower and the SPI the same, they are priced higher at 49.... !  To explain - they should be cheaper again as the XJO has fallen and they are out of the money, but now they are probably fairly priced.  I don't see the shorter time frame having that much of an impact on the price, but maybe IG's pricing algo's are factoring that in.

Anyway, there is still a bit of selling, so that binary may not be worth the effort.  Friday close is not the best time to trade, as it can make or break a weekend.  

 

On the XJO, a similar theme to yesterday, with our big miners BHP and RIO up 1.2%, Woodside down despite crude being higher, down 1.1% too, so not insignificant.  The big banks are off about 0.5% - 1.0%.  Volumes trust-worthy too, the miners a touch less than average. 

 

Binaries are not being priced correctly, the up down binary having the up at 55 buy, the down at 45 buy, yet the XJO is down 0.5.  Technically it should be the other way around (it seems to be a bit better now, last minute of trading) Can't see any trades I like, and with the constant selling it is tricky.  There are two signs that the algo's should back off...

 

 

 

[Guest Zero]

The algo's did pop 8pts on 4pm as expected, but from then on it was another sell-into-strength.  Yet the selling pushed the market to new lows, including the XJO on close.  I was staying out, but my expectations from the get go were off for this last ten mins.  Annoying considering the rest of the day.  

The XJO closed 6116.20, down 2.50, setting the day's low.  Tough trading for binaries with the prices offered.  Unless you got in over the afternoon.  

 

The nice thing of the day was that the algos were still perfect, and our magic number ruled the day, 6093 the goal for the selling.  Hmm.  

 

Dow fell on the 4pm open/close (whichever market you're watching), with China falling more, the Nikkei dragged down after its close, and the European markets coming off a touch.  

[Guest EA-trader]

Was happening ?Lost support?

 

[Guest Zero]

Not sure what you're implying - "lost support" ???

 

 

Today either the 6083.10 20min ladder binary which was 44 or less at 3:55pm "bought", and the 6083.00 hourly ladder binary at 43 to 36 buy at 3:55pm, or less in the 2 mins till lockout.  XJO 6084.50, binaries to 100.  

 

At the moment I am limited in how I can post on the forum.  That's about all I can say.  Last week I was visiting family.  

[Guest Zero]

It is probably known but IG have changed how they determine their strike price for the ASX (XJO).  Who knows why.  

They now take the price of the XJO just before the expiry time, not on/at the expiry time. It shouldn't be an issue as they disclose when this is and a trader has to accept that that's how the binary is set up.  Philosophically it might be more or less accurate.  In reality it makes absolutely no difference as a trader couldn't trade within that 1 minute regardless.....

 

One thing that isn't openly disclosed is that they now shut their binary market 1 minute earlier than before. 

[Guest EA-trader]

Is it a good buy at 6084 , stop  6050 target 6135?

[Guest Zero]

That question is something that assumes a certain trading approach that I believe is incorrect.  If in the past 6084 was an important value/price, it is not necessarily true that it will remain important, as the context then and the next time it is at that price has normally changed (assuming a time frame of a week or more say).  Technical analysis, in other words, is so one dimensional.  

 

The XJO went below 6084 today but it wasn't a significant number.  I haven't looked at the charts to see if it is either.  To me I would take every day as it comes, and decide on the day whether a certain price or combination of prices is a good trade.  That would mean I would trade a larger position and look for a  smaller range than your strategy.  Just my personal preference.  

 

At the moment, and considering what is happening this week, it is more likely you'd get stopped out of that trade before it returns to come close to the target.  I also don't trade with stops, and would rarely trade overnight.  So again, it is hard for me to be confident about this trade with the trading style / money management I would use.  

 

Short answer, there would be a better trade in my opinion (assuming a CFD directional trade, not a binary.  Binaries would obviously be a totally different consideration, and a blunt no.  You would understand this I know.).

[Guest Zero]

As of now, 10:48am Tuesday morning, the IG ASX200 low is 6044.4 and the XJO low 6046.10.  Either way, that trade would be stopped out. The market is still weak, trying to find some buying.  

 

Not knowing the rational behind the earlier trade (buy 6084, stop 6050, target 6135) I can't offer much more commentary on it.

 

I'd expect a range to develop off these lows.  No clear sign of a bottom/low yet.  China is strong (+0.5%) the Nikkei weak (-35) and that's off a positive lead overnight.  

[Caseynotes]

@Zero,  Looks like we got that break, clear race to the top but given the 4% recent drop the Shanghai market could be a tough climb.  Charts;