DAX30

[Caseynotes]

Battle of wills, trendline up off yesterday's low on the 1 hour chart being repeatedly tested while the range on the daily holds. Charts;

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax falls hard on escalating trade war news. Down 150 points on the day and retesting the range bottom again, bulls looking to hold 12544.

[Kodiak]

Looks like a double top may-june ?

maybe next 11 800 ish?

 

 

[Caseynotes]

It does doesn't it though we have strayed from the technicals and wandered into fundamental territory and everything is spinning on every Trump tweet. But all else being equal (putting aside the trade issue) and given the overall good state of the US economy all the main indices should be drifting up out of this period of consolidation.

He does know how to play them and he could turn it all around in a day if he gets some sort of deal, the EU are talking tough but actually giving way such as dropping their own tariffs on US car imports. 

But the big levels always matter and any breach takes some effort to undo and a drop below 12544 puts us back into a prior range who's bottom is indeed around 11800.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Euro look set for more bad news with the German IFO business report on Monday 9:00 AM. Forecast for low score for 3rd month in a row.

https://www.livesquawk.com/members/german_ifo_jun_18_business_climate__-_preview

 

 

[Guest me111]

will it take it sub 12500 and then 12400?

[247trader]

Thought I would do a bit of research on the DAX as I don’t really trade it or know much about it. 

So we know it’s a German benchmark, but apparently there are two versions. Performance AND price weighted index, however the performance index is quoted more commonly. That’s the one IG uses too as it isn’t effected by dividends. 

Also “because of its small selection it does not necessarily represent the vitality of the economy as whole” which is interesting. Does this mean when macro economic data from Europe comes out it isn’t moved so much? 

Looking at the make up it seems very manufacturing and industrial heavy so likely to be hit by the trump tariffs at the moment. Some large pharma and chemical companies in the higher weighting side of things too. 

Question - what moves big pharma and chemicals then? Small pharma is volatile because sometimes they release drugs or have things fall thru, but if you’re massive and diverse I can imagine it’s a bit harder to knock the stock?

[Caseynotes]

Good questions @247trader, if only  oilfxpro  was lurking about here somewhere he'd be able to tell us.

The dax is made up of only 30 companies but they are mega conglomerates that operate on the world stage so more an indicator of the global climate than German, much the same way as is the dow is and how different the dow is compared to the S&P500.

Similar to the dow the dax is much more volatile compared to indices that are made up of a larger number and more diverse collection of companies and as you say more effected by global (Trump) than by domestic concerns. The big pharma are the same, they are easily able to gobble up smaller companies with bright new products so they are more concerned with global increases or declines in agriculture, processing and manufacture that use the bulk chemicals they produce. 

You may be interested in; 

blob:https://www.ig.com/9f2187b3-8aa1-40e8-b918-d13daae32aa6

[Caseynotes]

Seem to have lost the edit option. The video link in the last post not correct try;

https://www.ig.com/uk/ig-academy/sessions/webinar-video?bctid=5654762081001

[Caseynotes]

If the Dow can't hold 24084 the Dax, having retested 12446, looks to be heading down.

[Caseynotes]

Dax at 30 (years old that is);

Germany’s leading stock-market index is the DAX, which contains 30 German blue chips. And today the DAX turns 30, so they’re throwing a party at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. But if you’re thinking of investing, it’s worth keeping in mind a little difference.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average in New York (which also has 30 stocks) and all other major indices are quoted purely by price. So these indices are snapshots of the markets’ view of the future. But the DAX is calculated by including dividends, as if those had been reinvested. Gabor Steingart, formerly the boss of the Handelsblatt Media Group, points out that if you harmonized the DAX with the Dow, it wouldn’t be at about 12,000 these days, but at 6,000. But don’t let that spoil today’s party.

From https://global.handelsblatt.com

[Caseynotes]

Dax looking hard at 12383, if it can clear this level 12544 is on. Charts.

[Caseynotes]

So we got our break up yesterday but none of the expected follow through, I blame the Americans myself and their obsession with oil. US holiday today.

Currently back in an overnight tight range between 12285 and 12331 so waiting for a break out either way.

1 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

You wait ages for a move and then it does the whole thing in 10 minutes flat.

Back now to looking clearance of 12418 prior high and progression on to 12544 as was mentioned on Tuesday.

1 hour chart.

[Caseynotes]

Tagged the 12544 this morning before dropping away and waiting for NFP. There is support around 12410 and if gets a boost and breaks free of 12544 the next target up is 12770.

 

 

[hart]

Hi Casey ur views on my 2 questions.thx.

1.its buy on dips opportunity and dax is uptrend?

2.can short at 12544?

thank you

 

[Caseynotes]

Hi @hart, good question and raises a couple of points. Firstly I mostly trade intraday so I can shift between short and long fairly rapidly but I still need a compass to help discern the bigger picture and for that I am a big fan of the 200 day Moving Average. If it's sloping up we're in an up trend, if it's horizontal we're in a range. So looking at the daily chart below with the 200 in purple we had a big uptrend from late 2016 til the beginning of this year when the 200 levelled off so for me the market is ranging but it is a large range and we look to be embarking on an upward leg but there are plenty of strong resistance levels along the way.

So have your levels marked out and look to react to what price does at those levels rather than trying to predict what price will do. Will price reverse at 12544 I haven't a clue but I can see it's an important one so I'll wait for the market to decide on direction and then between the big levels I look for dips (or rallies) on the smaller time frame charts to join the flow.

If you are wondering how I get my levels it's a cheat. I use a fractal based indicator that reads all the time frames from 1 hour upwards and gives a support and resistance level for each all on the one chart, plus it auto updates. It's not that I can't see them myself, it's just because I'm lazy. ?

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax making purposeful gains after the rounded bottom. Looking for a bounce here off 12563 and a push on to 12770. One fly in the ointment may be the economic sentiment data due out at 10:00.

[Caseynotes]

Dax decided to take a trip to visit the 50 ema this morning and inspite of worse data from ZEW (-24.7 actual) now back to the 8 AM open.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax makes a bull flag with plenty of upside if it can make another break, otherwise a retest of 12642.

4 hour chart;

[Caseynotes]

Recovering after the plunge on Trump comments re the Fed. Ascending channel on the daily with clear resistance levels on the way to the top on the 15 min chart below.

People still don't get Trump, he's a business man not a politician, he talks big on the open but is always looking to do a deal, he's not worried if he only gets half of what he wants this time round, he knows there will be other opportunities. Whenever you see a spike on a Trump comment think about the possibility to fade it.

Daily and 15 min charts;

[Caseynotes]

Though I was looking for an up day as mentioned in the indices thread this morning I wasn't quite ready for the +70 point 1 minute candle and still not sure what the actual trigger was.

1 minute and 1 hour charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax poised for a break to follow the Dow up after yesterday's trade talks.

Daily Chart;

[Caseynotes]

Dax 8am hourly bar testing yesterday's high looking to probe further.

1 hour chart;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax sets off looking to retest 12887, beyond that is clear space before the big weekly and monthly resistance levels around 13200.

[Kodiak]

DAX August

https://www.statista.com/statistics/261680/monthly-development-of-the-dax/

SP 500 August

[Caseynotes]

Holiday season is upon us, the site in the link looked interesting until the interesting bit was covered over by a 'pay for view' notice. I see the basic account is free though, do you use it?

From what I could make out Dax was similar to the S&P index above with negative Aug and Sept.

[Kodiak]

12 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Holiday season is upon us, the site in the link looked interesting until the interesting bit was covered over by a 'pay for view' notice. I see the basic account is free though, do you use it?

From what I could make out Dax was similar to the S&P index above with negative Aug and Sept.

No i dont use it 

i did find it on google (maybe remove the link?)

and yes august is often a negative month for dax, but maybe this time is different ☺️

[Caseynotes]

Fell away yesterday without reaching 12887 but found support again at 12766 late in the US session. Will look to see if the 7am Euro open gives a clue as to near term direction while longer term still aiming for 13200 .

1 hour and Daily chart;

 

[Kodiak]

On 7/30/2018 at 1:59 PM, Kodiak said:

DAX August

https://www.statista.com/statistics/261680/monthly-development-of-the-dax/

SP 500 August

More on this (it will probably affect dax also)

"According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, August ranks as one of the weakest months of the year for major indexes, with steeper losses in midterm years, as the current one is."

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-a-strong-july-august-looks-ominous-for-stocks-2018-07-30