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Gold & Silver in a LT rally

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For me precious metals have clearly now turned into that long term rally I have been banging on about since I started this thread.  For the record, I am Long from an early turning point and am now seeking to add further to those longs until the first major (Long term timeline) retrace Bear.  I currently see an interim retrace in the making, which would be a halfway Flag.  This is something I always look out for in all major motive waves.  On my Daily Gold chart I have a pair of parallel channel lines and the market has just hit and rebounded down off the upper one.  On my 4 hourly chart I have NMD and a potential ending Triangle formation, which if broken to the down side may offer a nice short term Gold Short.  More importantly I will be looking for a bottoming out of any retrace to go Long and also I will be waiting to see if a Flag or Pennant forms, the breakout rally of which would also be a good Long opportunity from a purely chartist perspective.

Longer term I am still expecting this rally to make the 1360ish area at the neckline and then we will see whether that stops this particular wave (in temporary retrace) or it blasts through.  But that's for later.  Right mow my strategy is simple, buy the dips BUT need to be careful here as a Flag move could reach the bottom channel line (i.e. a deep dip this time).  Also Flags can contain a lot of whiplash so watch out for that. Similar on Silver.

XAUUSD-Daily_311218.thumb.png.fd2a84f1e313ed30e99c033792f1e31c.pngXAUUSD-4-hours_311218.thumb.png.51f1ab0ac77fdbfacb6909c84029068a.png

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@Mercury,

Yes thanks for that. I too am looking to 'Buy the Dips' but want to try and buy when new 'Higher Lows' are formed on both Gold and Silver. I have not added to these positions yet but that is my strategy on these particular Gold and Silver trades.

I agree with your post. It will be interesting to see if when we both add to our positions using slightly different techniques and strategies what the outcomes are as they may be more similar than we think. It will be interesting to see. 

The key will be not to be stopped out unnecessarily due to the volatility and corrections based on profit taking and selling (closing long positions). I think for the trend to get even larger and stronger new participants on a larger scale such as institutional money opening new longs or adding substantially to existing positions will certainly assist. Also when 'Trend Followers', 'Speculators' and 'Hedge Funds' start becoming more aggressive and begin adding to their positions we could see a serious 'amplification' of the Gold and Silver trends with a strong upward movement.

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Gold and Silver have reached the top line of an up-sloping channel and have bounced back off it.  Gold has broken out of a 4 hour chart Triangle and retested just as the market closed for the down time.  However in the last hour during the Gold down time the FX market has really kicked off with the Yen making a large positive move against the USD and elsewhere USD rallying hard.  Will be interesting to see if this spike in USD translates into a bearish move for precious metals.

XAUUSD-Daily_020118.thumb.png.25976c6f0c0571b3efa96e3a98f8c244.pngXAUUSD-1-hour_020119.thumb.png.e0ea6ddc5f6c983e1e46028fe0de8501.png

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@Mercury,

If anything it seems during the 'Flash Crash' Silver certainly went up and Gold held its own overnight whilst the Asian markets were running. Obviously there may be some moving of capital today as a reaction so will have to see. 

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Looks like Silver and Gold (the latter more so) have finally hit the buffers and dropped down but how far will it go?  Gold is showing a credible break through a rising, narrowing, channel and close below (see hourly chart below).  Silver too but less convincingly just now.  Gold has turned back from a zone of significant resistance of the Daily chart (see below).  However my leading scenario is for Gold to go through a period of consolidation or a relatively shallow retrace aligned to stocks retrace rally, which would include fresh higher highs and then a much stronger retrace to set up the big rally coincidental with the big stocks Bear.

In the short term I am looking for a retrace to the Fib 38%, coincident with the unclosed price gap around the 1255 area BUT it is equally possible that this gap will not be closed until the wave 2 blue retrace a few months from now.  So the opportunity is to identify the next turn up and buy the dips for a short term Long trade and swing Short for the bigger retrace and then get long for the big one (or just wait for the big one...)

 

XAUUSD-1-hour_050119.thumb.png.85ace04ba82a1add8644b17faa58ebac.pngXAUUSD-Daily_050119.thumb.png.151483b8a6ff5842a369f04f57a37a5b.png

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Nothing much going on with Gold/Silver, the anticipated consolidation period continues.  The competing drivers of USD and Stocks/Bonds movements may be neutralising clear direction for now but in anycase, regardless of the cause, the price action is flat.  I see 2 possible routes out, both ending in an upward trajectory:

  1. a simple breakout rally that takes us up towards the big picture H&S neckline
  2. a retrace to close the price gap before that same rally

My longer term projects remains unchanged, once we complete a strong wave 1 we should see a retrace wave 2 to set up a big rally, which ought to coincide with the Stocks Bear resumption.  In this I am supposing that the main driver for gold becomes firmly a safe haven value store rather than a USD currency cross.

XAUUSD-Daily_160119.thumb.png.08c71c14134b5b5f0881a2db8cc29ff9.png

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It rather seems that USD price action is driving precious metals at present with USD weakness supporting rallying Gold/Silver.  Looking at the technicals on both it is simply an end to my anticipated consolidation part way through the medium term rally, which presents as a Flag or Pennant.  In both Gold and Silver we have seen a breakout of this consolidation and in the latter a break through over head resistance.  I expect both these markets to continue to rally for a while to complete the medium term wave 1 before a more significant wave 2 bearish retrace that will set up a very long Bullish trend.

My trading strategy is to go Long on the breakouts, mentioned above, watch XAUUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.c9cef41d4e25056f836c87432ede2b9c.pngXAGUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.d1c43d292fc60da667c78e16aecbe523.pngout for any short term bearish retraces as an opportunity to buy the dip until I see signals of the wave 1 end and then exit all swing Longs (keeping only those I took at the beginning of the rally as long term trades) and wait for the retrace to compete before entering a long term Long buying campaign. 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Mercury said:

It rather seems that USD price action is driving precious metals at present with USD weakness supporting rallying Gold/Silver.  Looking at the technicals on both it is simply an end to my anticipated consolidation part way through the medium term rally, which presents as a Flag or Pennant.  In both Gold and Silver we have seen a breakout of this consolidation and in the latter a break through over head resistance.  I expect both these markets to continue to rally for a while to complete the medium term wave 1 before a more significant wave 2 bearish retrace that will set up a very long Bullish trend.

My trading strategy is to go Long on the breakouts, mentioned above, watch XAUUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.c9cef41d4e25056f836c87432ede2b9c.pngXAGUSD-Daily_260119.thumb.png.d1c43d292fc60da667c78e16aecbe523.pngout for any short term bearish retraces as an opportunity to buy the dip until I see signals of the wave 1 end and then exit all swing Longs (keeping only those I took at the beginning of the rally as long term trades) and wait for the retrace to compete before entering a long term Long buying campaign. 

 

 

 

Buy Gold, Long Term sir ?? How far will it be? Help me sir ??

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4 minutes ago, gautamhait said:

Buy Gold, Long Term sir ?? How far will it be? Help me sir ??

Thank you sir

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Hmm, it seems like you are asking for a tip @gautamhait, I don't do tips.  There are some services around that do this if you are interested but of course they charge for the service.

If you are asking how far I think Gold will go I can say that I think (think being the key word here) that Gold (and precious metals generally) will go into a long term Bull run coincident with a major bear market in stocks.  How far, how long?  No idea, I let the market decide that and act accordingly using my trading methodology.  In the short term I think Gold/Silver will continue to rally, which is something I highlighted as a possible scenario early in this thread.  My next targets are 1360 (Gold) and 1750 (Silver), although naturally the markets could fall short of that or push through a bit further.  At some point I expect to see reversal indicators that will signal a bearish phase.  Depending on the price action that emerges I will look to see whether this is an actual trend reversal or just a retrace of the current Bullish trend.  Nothing is certain, the markets will reveal themselves in due course.  However, so far Gold/Silver is playing out according to my lead long term scenario, as outlined in this thread, so I would be foolish indeed to start second guessing myself.  I am focused on 2 things in precious metals markets: 

  1. Maximising the opportunity my scenario is offering in a risk managed fashion - so far so good
  2. Watching out for price action that may call my lead scenario into question - nothing so far...

Let me ask you what you think Gautamhait?  This is supposed to be a discussion forum after all...

 

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On Mon Jan 28 2019 at 04:37, Mercury said:

Hmm, it seems like you are asking for a tip @gautamhait, I don't do tips.  There are some services around that do this if you are interested but of course they charge for the service.

If you are asking how far I think Gold will go I can say that I think (think being the key word here) that Gold (and precious metals generally) will go into a long term Bull run coincident with a major bear market in stocks.  How far, how long?  No idea, I let the market decide that and act accordingly using my trading methodology.  In the short term I think Gold/Silver will continue to rally, which is something I highlighted as a possible scenario early in this thread.  My next targets are 1360 (Gold) and 1750 (Silver), although naturally the markets could fall short of that or push through a bit further.  At some point I expect to see reversal indicators that will signal a bearish phase.  Depending on the price action that emerges I will look to see whether this is an actual trend reversal or just a retrace of the current Bullish trend.  Nothing is certain, the markets will reveal themselves in due course.  However, so far Gold/Silver is playing out according to my lead long term scenario, as outlined in this thread, so I would be foolish indeed to start second guessing myself.  I am focused on 2 things in precious metals markets: 

  1. Maximising the opportunity my scenario is offering in a risk managed fashion - so far so good
  2. Watching out for price action that may call my lead scenario into question - nothing so far...

Let me ask you what you think Gautamhait?  This is supposed to be a discussion forum after all...

What are services??

What are the services??

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Do a google search @gautamhait but research them carefully, there are a lot of snake oil salesmen around.  I can't recommend any because I don't use them.  If you are going to use any make sure they use a methodology similar to yours.

Regarding Gold, it looks to me that my long term road map remains intact.  Precious metals went into a consolidation phase as suggested previously but may now have bounced back into a continuation of the rally phase.  If we see a fresh higher high soon I will be keeping a beady eye on price action as the potential neckline resistance zone is approached.  Currently I am anticipating a fairly significant rejection around this point (+/-) into a wave 2 bearish retrace but this would be just a prelude to a much stronger rally phase.

XAUUSD-Daily_170219.thumb.png.3c2f99c2e268b9137e79e4861f67f7e7.png 

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On 23/10/2018 at 18:20, TrendFollower said:

Have you guys considered Bullion Vault?

https://www.bullionvault.com

I used them during the last major gold bull run well over 10 years ago. 

@TrendFollower Did you do due diligence on the company's trustworthiness?  I have to admit I like their products but before don't want to commit serious cash unless I can be sure there's no circumstances in which management can dip their fingers into my assets.  I'm going through their writeup to determine if you have to buy the gold in lots to be able to collect it (just in case the world goes pear shaped)!

 

Great thread - I was wondering what all your thoughts are about today's move which seems to be a strong move out of prior range.  

Thanks in advance.

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Didn't see your comment until today @psycho so any comments are obviously with the benefit of hindsight.  I had wondered if this rally would make it to the potential Head & Shoulders Neckline up at around 1360 but the market looks to have fallen short of this.  Regardless I was expecting a large time frame EWT 1-2 retrace , which I believe has just started.  This could take a bit of time to play out, although the move down on Silver has been fast.  For me such a move is likely to be volatile and, if it coincides with my lead scenario for indices (a complex retrace) could play out towards May.  Note that on Gold there was a spike on the COT data with the Non Commercials jumping into net Longs just as the market turned.  As a contrarian this is a good signal of the end of a rally, I exited my Longs shortly thereafter.  I will sit this out for now and await a confirmation of a retrace completions before looking to get Long for a Long, Long rally.

BTW: although I have shown Silver retrace terminating at the neckline breakout zone this is indicative only at this stage, as all my road maps are, and I would not be surprised to see the long term supporting trend-line retested on Silver.

XAUUSD-Weekly_010319.thumb.png.bf69baa47f4e2dc66f5f4a62aa021653.pngXAUUSD-Daily_010319.thumb.png.5afd92165473ab4e64b6a3c107e2eaaf.pngXAGUSD-Daily_01019.thumb.png.a428aafd372452353da6262219f50b8a.png   

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Gold is getting a small bounce but is that on the back of stocks Bearishness, USD apparent strength or something else.  I can't really tell right now and unless Stocks are following my #2 scenario (see USD indices, are we there yet thread) I can't really see this as the end of the larger retrace.  So I remain with my previously posted road map.  This rally will, under that scenario, either trace a wave B from here or give us another small leg down before it does.  After that comes a longer wave C to complete the retrace, possible as low as a retest of the prevailing long term supporting trend-line, which would suck in a lot of precious metal Bears, prior to a long, long rally.  For precious metals I feel it is important to watch USD moves in the short to medium but overall economic and stocks moves for the long term.

The Negative Momentum Divergence is still dominant in the technical set up for me but Stochastic is over sold so a period of bullishness is likely,  remains to be seen whether this will turn back down before a higher high or run up to hit the the overhanging resistance first before any medium term retrace.  This uncertainty means precious metals are not a good bet right now for me.

I am content to hold Longs from way down for the long term, having cashed some on a dual bet strategy.  I am waiting for this current pattern to trace out before looking for additional Longs but I will not be taking precious metals Short nor swing trading in what I expect to be a volatile (whip plash type - not the good type) period and view the set up as too uncertain.  I would rather look to swing trade stocks and main USD FX pairs that Gold/Silver at present.

 XAUUSD-Daily_090319.thumb.png.3eece912d58f549fe0d3e75e3a5d57bb.png

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Gold and Silver are broadly still following my road map.  I have added what I believe is a strong channel (both upper and lower lines have a lot of price turn touches).  The breakout zone of this channel offers the favourite options for a wave B conclusion (Also Fib 62%), with Fib 76/78% not that much further up this represents a strong resistance zone for me. 

Silver and Gold are showing some strong congruence in pattern with similarity of Channel and breakout.  Wave A looks to be concluded now it remains to be seen how the potential wave B plays out.

I am not really key to trade this retrace as I am waiting for a long term rally signal to go Long and there are better short term trading opportunities elsewhere in my view.  So long as my road map set ups remain intact I am content to track and wait.

 XAUUSD-Daily_160319.thumb.png.a514e7caa8da7e99cfcb27b4d2ec1a23.pngXAGUSD-Daily_160319.thumb.png.d1143f8d9f128f1ef421efb55f6b2d02.png

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