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Charts below show that price is reaching a historically tested zone ( in my opinion! ) . However the lower timeframe charts show price still in a downward channel & the hourly timeframe shows price has fallen below the recent range with a 127.2% fib ext test possible , if not more. Either way, there is no sign yet of any reversal, but the levels, zones etc., are there to see

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I agree your near term support zone @elle.  Looking at the technical charts we can see the same Bear run from 2011 that is evident on GBP and EUR however in those cases the Bear started in 2009 with the end of the Credit Crunch and beginning of the Central Bank QE and ZIRP/NIRP era.  Australia did not see a recession as such but is heavily influenced by mining and therefore AUD/USD turned with the Commodity bubble peak and has largely tracked commodities down, including the more recent consolidation in a classic Triangle formation, which has recently broken out to the Bearish side, as will many other USD pairs.

However another difference with this pair is that the upper triangle line is formed by a long term support trend-line, which it therefore already broken through and has been providing resistance (as is so often the case with Support/Resistance lines).  I find this very Bearish.  You can see the support zones on the Weekly chart but I am looking for a rally off W1 (Blue) turn in or about the next support zone that may carry all the way back for a retest of the Triangle breakout point.  Hard to say where this will happen at this point so I don't see a trade on this pair yet and will wait for a suitable turn.  When it does turn there could be a lot of points on offer, however at present I prefer GBP and EUR.AUDUSD-Daily_051018.thumb.png.a29c5a7408f2b5a2301ce0e0ab34176d.png

AUDUSD-Weekly_051018.png

AUDUSD-Monthly_05102018.png

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Recent price action could indicate an early reversal turn for AUDUSD with a tram-line break.  However the tram-line pair s a bit weak in my view and the EW count suggest another leg down as a better set-up.  There is PMD on 1 hour chart but not really present on 4 hour chart.  I have another pair of tram-lines from the 4 hour chart (blue) that fits with the final leg down scenario (red arrows).

Having said all that the break of the grey 1 hour trams offered a very low risk trade with stops just below the recent lows only a handful of point away.  A confirmed break of the upper 4 hour tram-line would seal the turn but a rejection at or near this point would suggest the final leg down scenario with a potential end in or around the 7,000 mark as the most likely.

AUDUSD-1-hour081018.thumb.png.0cb98e896cdf179e6af66334b3147aeb.png

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AUDUSD made a fresh high and is trying to poke through near term resistance after a strong Tram-line breakout in line with other USD pairs.

AUDUSD-1-hour_091018.thumb.png.9a7a07bba455b7bac7c096067a5324a9.png

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One watch out!  Resistance must be broken strongly or there is a risk of a fall back to the 7000 level.

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Got a nice breakout through tram-lines and resistance on AUD overnight, which adds weight to the rally argument.  Seeing the same retrace as in other markets but there is a bit more firmness about the set up here vs EURUSD for instance.  The retrace could retest the resistance break (Fib50%) OR even go down to test the tramline break (Fib62%) before a strong rally move.

AUDUSD-1-hour_101018.thumb.png.469da0280340f3096ca16087642f2f90.png

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My FX trades are working out OK at present, despite the apparent mayhem in Stocks.  One positive about trading multiple asset classes is when one gets too hot (or cold) you can focus on others.  I'll be waiting and watching on stocks but focusing on FX and precious metals, which are all moving according to plan just now.

AUDUSD is a particularly interesting one from a technical POV.  This market retraced way down to a double bottom (small scale so not really a true double bottom) but the point here is it did in fact show a retest of 2 possible tram-line set ups (don't know nor care which is valid at this stage) and then rallied away.  We are seeing strength in EUR and GBP despite stock declines and if this sticks and AUD makes a new high then there are 700+ points on offer.

AUDUSD-1-hour_111018.thumb.png.049930b60283ea7ee379f307e2d01fb9.png

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AUDUSD still going OK WRT my road map.  Currently the market is recharging via a ST retrace for what I hope will be a sustained break through the overhead resistance.  Such a break will find little further resistance until the Daily Tram-line.  I also attach my Daily chart to illustrate the big picture target (7800) but could end a bit earlier when the Fib 50% comes into play.

A word of caution though, whereas GBP and EUR look like they have completed an A-B and should run up in a final Wave C of the retrace AUDUSD has not yet completed the Wave A even (unless for some reason AUDUSD will now rally hard and not look back - i.e. on a completely different trajectory...) .  For the moment I am assuming AUD will not out perform USD in the medium to long term and therefore my road map sketches out that A-B-C format.  Of course I have no idea exactly where this will happen so the road map is indicative only, pending further price action.  The word of caution is to guard against loading up into a probable Wave A turn back down to Wave B.  Actually the trading points for me are now and after the Wave B completes (excluding day trading of course).

Another thing to note is that when AUDUSD does retrace into a Wave B (if it does) then we might see a corresponding consolidation phase in the Wave C rally on GBP and EUR.  It is always nice to see these kinds of correlations.

AUDUSD-1-hour_110118A.thumb.png.cdf742eeaaaf0eefb223acc9c5045f85.pngAUDUSD-Daily_111018.thumb.png.35e8b8c21e450e3a6dc9a6d1ff2efd86.png 

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