Jump to content


Recommended Posts

Charts below show that price is reaching a historically tested zone ( in my opinion! ) . However the lower timeframe charts show price still in a downward channel & the hourly timeframe shows price has fallen below the recent range with a 127.2% fib ext test possible , if not more. Either way, there is no sign yet of any reversal, but the levels, zones etc., are there to see

Capture au1.PNG

Capture au2.PNG

Capture au3.PNG

  • Like 1
Link to comment

I agree your near term support zone @elle.  Looking at the technical charts we can see the same Bear run from 2011 that is evident on GBP and EUR however in those cases the Bear started in 2009 with the end of the Credit Crunch and beginning of the Central Bank QE and ZIRP/NIRP era.  Australia did not see a recession as such but is heavily influenced by mining and therefore AUD/USD turned with the Commodity bubble peak and has largely tracked commodities down, including the more recent consolidation in a classic Triangle formation, which has recently broken out to the Bearish side, as will many other USD pairs.

However another difference with this pair is that the upper triangle line is formed by a long term support trend-line, which it therefore already broken through and has been providing resistance (as is so often the case with Support/Resistance lines).  I find this very Bearish.  You can see the support zones on the Weekly chart but I am looking for a rally off W1 (Blue) turn in or about the next support zone that may carry all the way back for a retest of the Triangle breakout point.  Hard to say where this will happen at this point so I don't see a trade on this pair yet and will wait for a suitable turn.  When it does turn there could be a lot of points on offer, however at present I prefer GBP and EUR.AUDUSD-Daily_051018.thumb.png.a29c5a7408f2b5a2301ce0e0ab34176d.png



Link to comment

Recent price action could indicate an early reversal turn for AUDUSD with a tram-line break.  However the tram-line pair s a bit weak in my view and the EW count suggest another leg down as a better set-up.  There is PMD on 1 hour chart but not really present on 4 hour chart.  I have another pair of tram-lines from the 4 hour chart (blue) that fits with the final leg down scenario (red arrows).

Having said all that the break of the grey 1 hour trams offered a very low risk trade with stops just below the recent lows only a handful of point away.  A confirmed break of the upper 4 hour tram-line would seal the turn but a rejection at or near this point would suggest the final leg down scenario with a potential end in or around the 7,000 mark as the most likely.


Link to comment

Got a nice breakout through tram-lines and resistance on AUD overnight, which adds weight to the rally argument.  Seeing the same retrace as in other markets but there is a bit more firmness about the set up here vs EURUSD for instance.  The retrace could retest the resistance break (Fib50%) OR even go down to test the tramline break (Fib62%) before a strong rally move.


Link to comment

My FX trades are working out OK at present, despite the apparent mayhem in Stocks.  One positive about trading multiple asset classes is when one gets too hot (or cold) you can focus on others.  I'll be waiting and watching on stocks but focusing on FX and precious metals, which are all moving according to plan just now.

AUDUSD is a particularly interesting one from a technical POV.  This market retraced way down to a double bottom (small scale so not really a true double bottom) but the point here is it did in fact show a retest of 2 possible tram-line set ups (don't know nor care which is valid at this stage) and then rallied away.  We are seeing strength in EUR and GBP despite stock declines and if this sticks and AUD makes a new high then there are 700+ points on offer.


  • Like 1
Link to comment

AUDUSD still going OK WRT my road map.  Currently the market is recharging via a ST retrace for what I hope will be a sustained break through the overhead resistance.  Such a break will find little further resistance until the Daily Tram-line.  I also attach my Daily chart to illustrate the big picture target (7800) but could end a bit earlier when the Fib 50% comes into play.

A word of caution though, whereas GBP and EUR look like they have completed an A-B and should run up in a final Wave C of the retrace AUDUSD has not yet completed the Wave A even (unless for some reason AUDUSD will now rally hard and not look back - i.e. on a completely different trajectory...) .  For the moment I am assuming AUD will not out perform USD in the medium to long term and therefore my road map sketches out that A-B-C format.  Of course I have no idea exactly where this will happen so the road map is indicative only, pending further price action.  The word of caution is to guard against loading up into a probable Wave A turn back down to Wave B.  Actually the trading points for me are now and after the Wave B completes (excluding day trading of course).

Another thing to note is that when AUDUSD does retrace into a Wave B (if it does) then we might see a corresponding consolidation phase in the Wave C rally on GBP and EUR.  It is always nice to see these kinds of correlations.


Link to comment

AUDUSD pushing hard against a critical resistance zone.  Being rebuffed this hour but could be setting up for a fast break that may be a signal for EUR and GBP, also knocking at the door of their respective overhead resistance.  Break-throughs across the board will signal a sharp rally in my opinion.

Anyone got a view on these USD pairs?  Anyone trading them?


Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

AUDUSD may have already turned at Wave B and completed a couple of hard retraces.  I took a spec Long at point 2(brown) and am awaiting events.  If the other USD pairs make turns before a third test then this market could take off into a descent rally phase.  AUD seems to be a little ahead of the others.


  • Like 1
Link to comment

So turned out another leg down was required to reach a suitable Wave 1 turn, which rallied hard away.  Expect a 1-2 retrace before the rally really gets going.  The problem for me is this pair is on a different part to EUR and GBP, which is annoying as it gives rise to a nagging doubt over the USD prognosis in total.  Enough to be wary but not to change my view at this stage.  The prognosis for this pair is for an A-B-C move, likely to be very volatile and fast moving with equally swift reversals.  The total points on offer is lower than EUR and GBP and therefore I am staying out of this pair in favour of the other two.  Better set ups and stronger rally with more shallow reversals is my expectation.


Link to comment

Looks like AUDUSD has turned finally, with a subsequent retrace to the Fib 62% and rally away again.  Need to see a confirmed break of overhead resistance to be sure but signs are good and could be indicative of the breakout on EUR and GBP I have been tracking.


Link to comment

The market has reached the Daily channel tram-line breakout point.  We might get some hesitation around here but a push on through would be indicative of a strong rally wave A for this market.  I then anticipate a reaction in wave B before a final push to complete the retrace, with 2 possible final turning points obvious at present.

Note this A-B-C is similar to the DX set up, even though AUD is not part of the DX basket.  This A-B-C set up is another reason why I prefer GBP or EUR to this pair right now as I expect a cleaner wave C rally (notwithstanding the clear possibility of a complex retrace form as mentioned in my DX post).  Still this breakout potential is worth watching as confirmation of an overall rally phase or to swing trade if you one has a mind to.


  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment

AUDUSD breakout of the Daily channel is looking good and signs are therefore also favourable that other USD pairs will follow.

In terms of the analysis, on my Daily & 4 hour chart I have a wave 1 (blue) end and turn just inside my support zone (green lines from the Daily Chart) with a rally away in 2 sets of 1-2 retraces before a strong wave 3 push up to and (at present through) the channel upper line.  I would need to see a daily chart candle close above the line for confirmation but on the strength of the move and the EW set up and the fact that there is good PMD at Wave 1 on both charts I am feeling confident.  May still get a short term retest of the Channel but I don't see a hard retest or failure as a high probability.  Oscillators are also heading in the right direction on the Daily and I would not expect a significant retrace back down until one or both of these are in over bought territory.  At present I am expecting that eventuality to trigger the Wave A completion and retrace in wave B before the final rally on up.

Trading strategy:

  • I'm not trading this myself, preferring other markets
  • The best trading Long entry was on one of the 1-2 retraces, or a speculative on the reemergence out of Support zone.
  • If you have missed that or want to pyramid this one I would be looking to only trade retraces, maybe a retest on the channel line could work.  However if I took a Long now I would exit at the Wave A completion and wait for Wave B to complete and turn before getting in Long again.


Link to comment

On the AUDUSD @elleI see your Resistance level on the 1 hour but I also have two strong levels above that on the Daily chart, either of which are good candidates for a Wave A turn.  Therefore if I was going to go short this market at this first level I would be keeping shorts close against the high probability of a continuation of this rally phase.  With such levels of resistance above I would not be going long (the gaps between the levels are too small for me).  To be clear I am not seeking to short this market at all, I prefer to wait for a retrace and go Long.

Are you trading this market and what are you thinking about doing as the market approach your level?


  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment

AUDUSD turned at the first Resistance point and fairly firmly, which suggested to me that was the Wave A termination.  I'm now looking to see if a potential Wave B will turn at the Fib 50% level, that coincides with the channel breakout point, or perhaps retest the actual channel line.  A break through back into the channel will need a reassessment but for now this market is proceeding as expected and aligned to GBPUSD, although not EURUSD it seems.


Link to comment
  • 4 weeks later...

Looks like I called the A-B completion too early (the hazards of trading...).  This pair appear to have had another leg up in them to complete the wave A and are now retracing in a wave B (unless or until a new lower low vs 26 Oct is made).  Lead turning point (especially given USD - DX seems intent on turning south, or at least is not rallying away at present) is the retest of the initial channel breakout zone (Fib 76.78%).  Given recent markets volatility it would not surprise me to see a test of the Fib 88% though.  Any turn would bring up a fast and strong wave C to at least the previous breakout and retest of the Weekly chart Triangle consolidation (Fib 62%) and quite possible an actual retest of the actual Triangle line (Fib 76/78%).  This now represent perhaps a better trading opportunity than EUR or GBP given the political uncertainty surrounding those two pairs, although a related breakout of current consolidation on these 2 pairs is likely to also be fast and strong...

For full disclosure, I would only be thinking of trading this pair on positive signals if I think the current stocks bear move will go into a period of consolidation (possible around 23,500 to 24,000 on the Dow) or to provide some diversification vs my US large cap shorts campaign.  Otherwise I am focused on the US large cap bear market.



  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

Has the Aussie D just put in a turn into a big rally?  Looks like USD is now firmly in a Bearish move after yesterday's Fed dog and pony show.  AUDUSD is looking like a nice alternative to the usual suspects (sans any Brexit BS).  I have a potential turn on the Fib 76/78% zone on the Daily chart, which would constitute an EWT wave B, after which you get a strong wave C rally.  My medium term target would be around 7700 or 7900 but let's see how the price action plays out.  I am long at the Fib zone, stop protected just below.


Link to comment
  • 3 months later...

Looking a bit further in on AUD it looks like a potential channel breakout that may be followed up by a channel line retest.  If this fails then a strong rally could ensue, supported by RBA dovishness.  I have market up an initial target of 7650, the zone where the bearish breakout of the previous Triangle consolidation occurred (plus a failed retest) however if this pair gets a strong following wind the consolation Triangle line could be retested around 8000.  Could all of this coincide with a similar rally on GBP and EUR?


Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 01/02/23 10:32
  • Posts

    • Have markets any further upside to go?    Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 February 2023   In our regular monthly update, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor caught up with Serge Berger, from The SteadyTrader.com, who is looking at shorting the DAX. But he says that the US dollar is key, and his best case is that this begins to pick up again after the recent drop into the support zone where it is. The obvious trade out of this is then short gold.      
    • Poll: Do you think USD will weaken in 2023?   Could USD lose its grip on the financial markets in 2023? Share any analysis with the Community and comment on the blog below or on this forum why you think USD will weaken or not this year 2023.    All the best - MongiIG
    • Central bank transparency means few surprises to move markets when the Fed rate decision is announced. Does it still have a surprise to shift the dollar? We look at the potential for upside and downside moves in forex markets.    Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 February 2023 Fed rate decision It is the US interest rate decision tonight at 7pm UK time. While there’s little move in the currency markets so far this morning ahead of the announcement, it is an event that could well move the markets when we see that detail coming through from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and also at the press conference a little bit later on. The expectation Let's take a look at the detail as we're expecting it to break this evening. It's expected to raise interest rates by a margin of 25 basis points, a quarter of one percentage point, to a range of between four and a half and four and three quarter percent. But the big question is how long will the Fed remain on this tightening path? Now, this 25 basis points expected follows a 50 basis point increase in December and four successive 75 basis point interest rate rises previously. Dollar basket Let's look at what's happening with the dollar basket. As I said, not much move at the moment at 10173. Now this direction of travel here showing the dollar weakening away from the highs that we saw back in September last year when the Fed was in that aggressive tightening cycle. Since then, we have seen lots of evidence to suggest that the Fed is wanting to take its foot off the pedal a little bit - 25 basis points is already priced into these markets as things stand there at the moment. There's a little bit of an uptick in the momentum, indicating that there is an appetite, I think, to take this market higher. But if the Fed comes through with anything like the sort of dovish reports in the press conference that some are expecting, we could well see some of that unwound. EUR/USD - trading the move So how do you trade this? Well, let's take a look at the opportunities here. Let's assume that the Fed is going to be dovish, maybe more so than had been the case previously. The euro/dollar trade would go higher and at 10873, you'd put your stop below this area down here at around about the 10750 level, 10873. The area to beat is this 10936, which is the highs that we saw back on the 21st of April last year. Now that's long euro/dollar. Assuming we get a dovish Fed, if the Fed looks like it wants to keep its foot on the pedal, if it wants to continue to try and combat inflation, which is certainly the mantra that we're getting and we have in the past, that's what central banks are meant to be doing. In that case, you would go short on this, and I think there's more money going into the dollar. If we see something more hawkish from the Fed, in which case you go short on this with a stop above this area up here to round about the 10970 level, with a view to taking this lower depending on what the outcome is of that interest rate decision. GBP/USD And the Fed statement tonight, I just want to show you what's happening in sterling against the US dollar, this is sterling having risen up to a level at 12446 with the highs we saw recently back on the 18th of January. Since then, there's been a little bit of consolidation going on, same sort of thing. If you're looking at a dovish Fed, you'd be taking this up. In other words, you'd be long with a stop below recent price action. If you think that there's going to be an aggressive Fed, then obviously you would expect this market to move lower on the session around that decision tonight from the Federal Reserve.
  • Create New...