AUDUSD

[phillo]

Charts below show that price is reaching a historically tested zone ( in my opinion! ) . However the lower timeframe charts show price still in a downward channel & the hourly timeframe shows price has fallen below the recent range with a 127.2% fib ext test possible , if not more. Either way, there is no sign yet of any reversal, but the levels, zones etc., are there to see

[Mercury]

I agree your near term support zone @elle.  Looking at the technical charts we can see the same Bear run from 2011 that is evident on GBP and EUR however in those cases the Bear started in 2009 with the end of the Credit Crunch and beginning of the Central Bank QE and ZIRP/NIRP era.  Australia did not see a recession as such but is heavily influenced by mining and therefore AUD/USD turned with the Commodity bubble peak and has largely tracked commodities down, including the more recent consolidation in a classic Triangle formation, which has recently broken out to the Bearish side, as will many other USD pairs.

However another difference with this pair is that the upper triangle line is formed by a long term support trend-line, which it therefore already broken through and has been providing resistance (as is so often the case with Support/Resistance lines).  I find this very Bearish.  You can see the support zones on the Weekly chart but I am looking for a rally off W1 (Blue) turn in or about the next support zone that may carry all the way back for a retest of the Triangle breakout point.  Hard to say where this will happen at this point so I don't see a trade on this pair yet and will wait for a suitable turn.  When it does turn there could be a lot of points on offer, however at present I prefer GBP and EUR.

[phillo]

this might chance things  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/07/china-pumps-109bn-into-economy-as-trade-war-bites-on-growth

[phillo]

balanced move ?

[Mercury]

Recent price action could indicate an early reversal turn for AUDUSD with a tram-line break.  However the tram-line pair s a bit weak in my view and the EW count suggest another leg down as a better set-up.  There is PMD on 1 hour chart but not really present on 4 hour chart.  I have another pair of tram-lines from the 4 hour chart (blue) that fits with the final leg down scenario (red arrows).

Having said all that the break of the grey 1 hour trams offered a very low risk trade with stops just below the recent lows only a handful of point away.  A confirmed break of the upper 4 hour tram-line would seal the turn but a rejection at or near this point would suggest the final leg down scenario with a potential end in or around the 7,000 mark as the most likely.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD made a fresh high and is trying to poke through near term resistance after a strong Tram-line breakout in line with other USD pairs.

[Mercury]

One watch out!  Resistance must be broken strongly or there is a risk of a fall back to the 7000 level.

[Mercury]

Got a nice breakout through tram-lines and resistance on AUD overnight, which adds weight to the rally argument.  Seeing the same retrace as in other markets but there is a bit more firmness about the set up here vs EURUSD for instance.  The retrace could retest the resistance break (Fib50%) OR even go down to test the tramline break (Fib62%) before a strong rally move.

[Mercury]

My FX trades are working out OK at present, despite the apparent mayhem in Stocks.  One positive about trading multiple asset classes is when one gets too hot (or cold) you can focus on others.  I'll be waiting and watching on stocks but focusing on FX and precious metals, which are all moving according to plan just now.

AUDUSD is a particularly interesting one from a technical POV.  This market retraced way down to a double bottom (small scale so not really a true double bottom) but the point here is it did in fact show a retest of 2 possible tram-line set ups (don't know nor care which is valid at this stage) and then rallied away.  We are seeing strength in EUR and GBP despite stock declines and if this sticks and AUD makes a new high then there are 700+ points on offer.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD still going OK WRT my road map.  Currently the market is recharging via a ST retrace for what I hope will be a sustained break through the overhead resistance.  Such a break will find little further resistance until the Daily Tram-line.  I also attach my Daily chart to illustrate the big picture target (7800) but could end a bit earlier when the Fib 50% comes into play.

A word of caution though, whereas GBP and EUR look like they have completed an A-B and should run up in a final Wave C of the retrace AUDUSD has not yet completed the Wave A even (unless for some reason AUDUSD will now rally hard and not look back - i.e. on a completely different trajectory...) .  For the moment I am assuming AUD will not out perform USD in the medium to long term and therefore my road map sketches out that A-B-C format.  Of course I have no idea exactly where this will happen so the road map is indicative only, pending further price action.  The word of caution is to guard against loading up into a probable Wave A turn back down to Wave B.  Actually the trading points for me are now and after the Wave B completes (excluding day trading of course).

Another thing to note is that when AUDUSD does retrace into a Wave B (if it does) then we might see a corresponding consolidation phase in the Wave C rally on GBP and EUR.  It is always nice to see these kinds of correlations.

 

[Mercury]

AUDUSD pushing hard against a critical resistance zone.  Being rebuffed this hour but could be setting up for a fast break that may be a signal for EUR and GBP, also knocking at the door of their respective overhead resistance.  Break-throughs across the board will signal a sharp rally in my opinion.

Anyone got a view on these USD pairs?  Anyone trading them?

[Mercury]

AUDUSD may have already turned at Wave B and completed a couple of hard retraces.  I took a spec Long at point 2(brown) and am awaiting events.  If the other USD pairs make turns before a third test then this market could take off into a descent rally phase.  AUD seems to be a little ahead of the others.

 

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

Interesting comparison with AUDJPY atm.

[Mercury]

So turned out another leg down was required to reach a suitable Wave 1 turn, which rallied hard away.  Expect a 1-2 retrace before the rally really gets going.  The problem for me is this pair is on a different part to EUR and GBP, which is annoying as it gives rise to a nagging doubt over the USD prognosis in total.  Enough to be wary but not to change my view at this stage.  The prognosis for this pair is for an A-B-C move, likely to be very volatile and fast moving with equally swift reversals.  The total points on offer is lower than EUR and GBP and therefore I am staying out of this pair in favour of the other two.  Better set ups and stronger rally with more shallow reversals is my expectation.

[phillo]

[Mercury]

Looks like AUDUSD has turned finally, with a subsequent retrace to the Fib 62% and rally away again.  Need to see a confirmed break of overhead resistance to be sure but signs are good and could be indicative of the breakout on EUR and GBP I have been tracking.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD breaches ST resistance.  Is it a sign for USD to drop or another false dawn..?

[Mercury]

The market has reached the Daily channel tram-line breakout point.  We might get some hesitation around here but a push on through would be indicative of a strong rally wave A for this market.  I then anticipate a reaction in wave B before a final push to complete the retrace, with 2 possible final turning points obvious at present.

Note this A-B-C is similar to the DX set up, even though AUD is not part of the DX basket.  This A-B-C set up is another reason why I prefer GBP or EUR to this pair right now as I expect a cleaner wave C rally (notwithstanding the clear possibility of a complex retrace form as mentioned in my DX post).  Still this breakout potential is worth watching as confirmation of an overall rally phase or to swing trade if you one has a mind to.

 

[Mercury]

AUDUSD breakout of the Daily channel is looking good and signs are therefore also favourable that other USD pairs will follow.

In terms of the analysis, on my Daily & 4 hour chart I have a wave 1 (blue) end and turn just inside my support zone (green lines from the Daily Chart) with a rally away in 2 sets of 1-2 retraces before a strong wave 3 push up to and (at present through) the channel upper line.  I would need to see a daily chart candle close above the line for confirmation but on the strength of the move and the EW set up and the fact that there is good PMD at Wave 1 on both charts I am feeling confident.  May still get a short term retest of the Channel but I don't see a hard retest or failure as a high probability.  Oscillators are also heading in the right direction on the Daily and I would not expect a significant retrace back down until one or both of these are in over bought territory.  At present I am expecting that eventuality to trigger the Wave A completion and retrace in wave B before the final rally on up.

Trading strategy:

• I'm not trading this myself, preferring other markets
• The best trading Long entry was on one of the 1-2 retraces, or a speculative on the reemergence out of Support zone.
• If you have missed that or want to pyramid this one I would be looking to only trade retraces, maybe a retest on the channel line could work.  However if I took a Long now I would exit at the Wave A completion and wait for Wave B to complete and turn before getting in Long again.

[phillo]

On ‎27‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 14:50, elle said:

 

[phillo]

great fibs 

[phillo]

almost there

[Mercury]

On the AUDUSD @elleI see your Resistance level on the 1 hour but I also have two strong levels above that on the Daily chart, either of which are good candidates for a Wave A turn.  Therefore if I was going to go short this market at this first level I would be keeping shorts close against the high probability of a continuation of this rally phase.  With such levels of resistance above I would not be going long (the gaps between the levels are too small for me).  To be clear I am not seeking to short this market at all, I prefer to wait for a retrace and go Long.

Are you trading this market and what are you thinking about doing as the market approach your level?

[Mercury]

AUDUSD turned at the first Resistance point and fairly firmly, which suggested to me that was the Wave A termination.  I'm now looking to see if a potential Wave B will turn at the Fib 50% level, that coincides with the channel breakout point, or perhaps retest the actual channel line.  A break through back into the channel will need a reassessment but for now this market is proceeding as expected and aligned to GBPUSD, although not EURUSD it seems.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD looks to have completed the projected retrace move back to the breakout zone.  Always a chance that there will be another retest before it rallies away.  I am not trading this pair but it looks to be slightly ahead of the others so useful for correlation.

[Mercury]

Looks like I called the A-B completion too early (the hazards of trading...).  This pair appear to have had another leg up in them to complete the wave A and are now retracing in a wave B (unless or until a new lower low vs 26 Oct is made).  Lead turning point (especially given USD - DX seems intent on turning south, or at least is not rallying away at present) is the retest of the initial channel breakout zone (Fib 76.78%).  Given recent markets volatility it would not surprise me to see a test of the Fib 88% though.  Any turn would bring up a fast and strong wave C to at least the previous breakout and retest of the Weekly chart Triangle consolidation (Fib 62%) and quite possible an actual retest of the actual Triangle line (Fib 76/78%).  This now represent perhaps a better trading opportunity than EUR or GBP given the political uncertainty surrounding those two pairs, although a related breakout of current consolidation on these 2 pairs is likely to also be fast and strong...

For full disclosure, I would only be thinking of trading this pair on positive signals if I think the current stocks bear move will go into a period of consolidation (possible around 23,500 to 24,000 on the Dow) or to provide some diversification vs my US large cap shorts campaign.  Otherwise I am focused on the US large cap bear market.

 

[Mercury]

Has the Aussie D just put in a turn into a big rally?  Looks like USD is now firmly in a Bearish move after yesterday's Fed dog and pony show.  AUDUSD is looking like a nice alternative to the usual suspects (sans any Brexit BS).  I have a potential turn on the Fib 76/78% zone on the Daily chart, which would constitute an EWT wave B, after which you get a strong wave C rally.  My medium term target would be around 7700 or 7900 but let's see how the price action plays out.  I am long at the Fib zone, stop protected just below.

[Mercury]

I haven't been looking at the Aussie Dollar much but now it looks like it is aligning to other USD pairs in a retrace rally.

[Mercury]

Looking a bit further in on AUD it looks like a potential channel breakout that may be followed up by a channel line retest.  If this fails then a strong rally could ensue, supported by RBA dovishness.  I have market up an initial target of 7650, the zone where the bearish breakout of the previous Triangle consolidation occurred (plus a failed retest) however if this pair gets a strong following wind the consolation Triangle line could be retested around 8000.  Could all of this coincide with a similar rally on GBP and EUR?