Jump to content

AUDUSD

Recommended Posts

Similarly to GBP and EUR this pair looks to have stopped, and possibly turned, on the Fib 62% support zone.  Nice pin bar on the spike through and rally and today (so far) a continuation rally away.  If sustained a retest of the upper Triangle line will tell us whether the big retrace rally is on the cards or not this time.  A breakthrough the lower Triangle line brings up a retest of the previous low and most likely a bearish move below that, but that is for another time.

AUDUSD-Daily_260419.thumb.png.85a8c46ba888e458956e5733d16e527b.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

🤣🤣🤣  D'oh!

You do know that posting charts 'after the fact' is in fact quite easy right?

Why don't you try and 'anticipate' some of the movements instead of finding them after the fact?

And get some skin in the game?

Or do you agree with me that spread betting is for total chumps, and if more people actually made money the likes of IG would go out of business, hence ... you know the rest.  😂

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Sorry for the above.  I got stopped out and lost money. Looks like it's going all the way down anyway. 🤣

aud.jpg

Share this post


Link to post

All part of the learning curve, but what is the takeaway though? Maybe consider instead of looking for reversals look for failed dips and rallies. Most patterns are continuation patterns, price come out in the same direction it went in, major reversals are far less frequent.

Share this post


Link to post

Another small leg down and then another bounce with another PMD.  Wave Bs are always tricky.  Small 1-2 retrace and rally away.  Next level resistance remains to be broken and I expect a larger scale 1-2 retrace before the meat of the wave 3 rally gets going.  Symmetry with GBP, EUR and CAD (inverse) is striking.  This is USD weakness.

I am long off the 1-2 bounce and atop protected just below for previous low for a very small exposure trade.

AUDUSD-1-hour_030519.thumb.png.c13c40a385d3cc30674b428a88d40fb0.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

AUDUSD, like other USD pairs, has continued in down but unlike others this pair is close to the previous low, a flash crash spike low.  For the Bullish set ups to remain intact the market has to turn around the Fib 88% (surely a double bottom is unlikely.  Well Hello!  The market opened tonight with a large gap up.  It may yet be closed but for now this pair is worth following for anyone interested in FX at present.  A break below that lower low will surely be Bearish but if this gap rally is sustained then it will be a powerful turn into a wave C of a retrace rally, that could run hard and fast.

I was long off the Fib 88%, now stop protected just below the pre gap low for a low exposure trade.  If this pair rallies will the other main USD pairs be far behind?

Other technicals are in favour of a rally including:

  • Very good narrowing channel lines on the 4 hour chart
  • Turn is in the Fib 88% zone, last chance saloon for a rally
  • PMD on 4 and 1 hour charts.

There are several important resistance zones for the market to clear including the channel upper line around 6950 and the next level at 7070.  If this is a wave C turn then I would expect these resistances to be dispensed with in short order.

AUDUSD-4-hours_190519.thumb.png.52e792eea7382fdf4759b95102a3671e.pngAUDUSD-1-hour_190519.thumb.png.fec87552ec3c6e60a46ad849b41efae6.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

At the moment the wave B turn looks set with a EWT1-2 small scale follow up retrace and turn (double bottom).  The market has poked above near term resistance but ducked back under.  Remains to be seen if this pair, and other USD pairs make a sustained breakout.  If they do a medium term retrace of some significance is indicated.  Long way to go yet but for AUDUSD and GBPUSD this would be a wave C, strong with few pull backs of significance.

AUDUSD-1-hour_310519.thumb.png.e89d49c9e61d62ab5ab1e81d8fe34f47.pngAUDUSD-Daily_310519.thumb.png.5dc08540de96f813c8c3fce86d255e5b.pngAUDUSD-Weekly_310519.thumb.png.cd2aa5a5f13af7cb1278b18e9afaad0a.png

Share this post


Link to post

The AUD has made a nice clean turn at a potential wave B offering me a couple of good Long entries.  There is a chance of a deeper retrace off the pin bar on Friday but it was still a Bullish candle so more likely for me is a continuation and strengthening of the rally.  As with GBP this looks like a wave C and if correct it will carry up with strength.  My preferred target for retrace conclusion on this market is between 7600-7700 in the previous channel breakout zone.  Convestion decrees that this market is not confirmed in rally phase until a breakout of the Triangle line but with other pairs and DX already broken through their respective lines I feel confident of my early Longs, not stop protected at break even in anycase.

AUDUSD-Daily_080619.thumb.png.b820d19d62132de912d58c4b275b66b6.pngAUDUSD-Weekly_080619.thumb.png.41972b951dfde8d4fafc9f9d0173603b.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

As with other USD pairs AUDUSD is also trending back down.  The drop has been quite hard and the only credible turning point looks like the Fib 76/78% previous channel breakout zone.  It is difficult to be conclusive but the form of the rally is 1-5, which suggests the current bearish move is a counter trend retrace that should rally to new highs.  I will want to see a sustained bounce off the support zone to go long.  

AUDUSD-4-hours_120619.thumb.png.03f642a1966044d6877b0cce97c9b29f.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

AUDUSD just made a higher high, possible break through resistance in progress.  Could this be a leading indicator for USD Bearish resumption as GBP and EUR are looking to turn and USDCAD comes up on its own breakout?

AUDUSD-Daily_030719.thumb.png.724747f97d38acea9dae838de09eb217.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

AUDUSD didn't make a breakthrough but poked into resistance was was sharply slapped down to join the other USD pairs in a retrace.  Now AUD has broken a short term Flag and is it makes a lower low looks to be heading down to the Fib 50% at a minimum and likely the Fib 62% before any rally.

AUDUSD-1-hour_080719.thumb.png.b8b03594601842036dded07a558b6867.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

AUDUSD is currently in line with other pairs, having made a nice hit and bounce away from the Fib 62% support zone.  The drop and bounce is a mirror of the wave 1 turn down, a price action signal that a turn may be underway.  There is PMD on the turn and a credible EWT wave count.  Also worth noting that the wave A and C on this move are almost equal in length, a typical relationship for an A-B-C retrace.  Note however that there is a chance this pair could take another leg down for a nibble at the 6900 area for a more exact equivalence, which would be the bottom of the support zone.

AUDUSD-1-hour_100719.thumb.png.5230598bb65c5a4801cf962a65f3171d.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

AUDUSD is pleasingly strong at present with a longer rally duration than EUR and GBP.  This makes my Longs off the turn that much more secure against a deep retrace than on other pairs.  This has bee a bit of a feature of AUD for a while now, having seemingly hit the wave B turn earlier than the others and already put in a 1-2 retrace.  This fits as the wave 3 is usually a strong one so I would not expect AUD to retrace too far this time.

AUDUSD-1-hour_120719.thumb.png.918e576cad38e79ffe6c9b5f556d1cd1.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

AUDUSD has been particular strong it seems and perhaps one to watch for clues.  Again not sure when the turn will come but I am expecting one before this pair is really set to hit those retrace highs.

AUDUSD-1-hour_130719.thumb.png.3a09501895a1c3959853740e9145c42a.pngAUDUSD-Daily_130719.thumb.png.53d175feb1be8d356069583ea689724a.png

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      8,149
    • Total Posts
      45,324
    • Total Members
      56,181
    Newest Member
    David88
    Joined 29/02/20 11:07
  • Posts

    • Everyone has their own view of where the Dow might go from here. My assessment going into March has not changed from yesterday despite testing ~24600 already and recovered to ~25700 after hours. We are heading for at least Dow 22000 guys. Anyone dare go long from here has to eat some serious humble pie - including myself if I am spectacularly wrong on this one. But I don't think so... The Jag F Type V8 looks like a nice car....😁😁
    • IG group is pretending as a reliable Forex broker but my experience with the broker proved the contrary.  I have opened an account with them and deposited some money. Only after started trading I came to know that they imposed all sort of restrictions on the trading account. I found that I could not open a trade without mentioning a Stop Loss and a Take profit. And the margin got increased each time when I increased the stop loss distance.  They are calling it a Limited account. I contacted their help desk and explained them I am using a strategy for which I do not use STOP LOSS. They said I have to prove my financial strength by submitting my bank statement or any document which proves that you are strong enough to lose money by trading. I told them I am using my own money and they don’t have to worry about my loses. If I do not have money, I could not invest money for trading. I told them I have Forex trading account with two more major Forex brokers and by using my strategy I am winning the trades without fixing Stop Loses. It all went to dump ears and they insisted me to send them my  bank statement. I sent them the bank statement but they started insisting me to send them copies of other documents for incomes and assets. I thought why do they ask me to prove my financial strength to trade with them using their platform and also the trades are not free. They are also benefited by my trades. Even then they did not take action to remove limitations on my trading account. In fact I am using a trading strategy in which I keep on increasing lots and trade distances by opening pending orders. When they keep on increasing margin, I am unable to open new lots and the trade is getting disturbed. Also some of the Stop loss positions get triggered and the equity get reduced unnecessarily. I explained those idiots about how I trade and how the limitations on my account act as a real hindrance for my successful trading. I would like to ask you what right a Forex Broker got to impose unnecessary restrictions on a client’s trading account as the money he uses to trade is his own and not from their family property. I explained them my problem and asked them to free my account from all the limitations at my own risk but they are not ready to do so. I really curse the moment I decided to open an account with IG the Idiots Group.
    • Hello, IG offers ProRealTime which comes with an excellent built in scanner.  You can easily drag & drop scanning settings or get right down to easy to understand programming, with excellent programming help from other users at Prorealcode.  The prorealcode offers many who write code for free & they can be used for scanning as well as auto trading if you feel brave.  Be wary with any auto trading, in my opinion as they show good results in back testing but in reality can be Very different.  ProRealTime also has a built in feature which allows you to scan for markets at support & resistance and much more.  I am very grateful for IG providing this for free for only 4 trades a month. https://www.ig.com/au/trading-platforms/prorealtime
×
×