AUDUSD

[dmedin]

Going to retest the low?

[Caseynotes]

[Mercury]

Similarly to GBP and EUR this pair looks to have stopped, and possibly turned, on the Fib 62% support zone.  Nice pin bar on the spike through and rally and today (so far) a continuation rally away.  If sustained a retest of the upper Triangle line will tell us whether the big retrace rally is on the cards or not this time.  A breakthrough the lower Triangle line brings up a retest of the previous low and most likely a bearish move below that, but that is for another time.

 

 

[dmedin]

🤣🤣🤣  D'oh!

You do know that posting charts 'after the fact' is in fact quite easy right?

Why don't you try and 'anticipate' some of the movements instead of finding them after the fact?

And get some skin in the game?

Or do you agree with me that spread betting is for total chumps, and if more people actually made money the likes of IG would go out of business, hence ... you know the rest.  😂

[dmedin]

Sorry for the above.  I got stopped out and lost money. Looks like it's going all the way down anyway. 🤣

[Caseynotes]

All part of the learning curve, but what is the takeaway though? Maybe consider instead of looking for reversals look for failed dips and rallies. Most patterns are continuation patterns, price come out in the same direction it went in, major reversals are far less frequent.

[Mercury]

Another small leg down and then another bounce with another PMD.  Wave Bs are always tricky.  Small 1-2 retrace and rally away.  Next level resistance remains to be broken and I expect a larger scale 1-2 retrace before the meat of the wave 3 rally gets going.  Symmetry with GBP, EUR and CAD (inverse) is striking.  This is USD weakness.

I am long off the 1-2 bounce and atop protected just below for previous low for a very small exposure trade.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD, like other USD pairs, has continued in down but unlike others this pair is close to the previous low, a flash crash spike low.  For the Bullish set ups to remain intact the market has to turn around the Fib 88% (surely a double bottom is unlikely.  Well Hello!  The market opened tonight with a large gap up.  It may yet be closed but for now this pair is worth following for anyone interested in FX at present.  A break below that lower low will surely be Bearish but if this gap rally is sustained then it will be a powerful turn into a wave C of a retrace rally, that could run hard and fast.

I was long off the Fib 88%, now stop protected just below the pre gap low for a low exposure trade.  If this pair rallies will the other main USD pairs be far behind?

Other technicals are in favour of a rally including:

• Very good narrowing channel lines on the 4 hour chart
• Turn is in the Fib 88% zone, last chance saloon for a rally
• PMD on 4 and 1 hour charts.

There are several important resistance zones for the market to clear including the channel upper line around 6950 and the next level at 7070.  If this is a wave C turn then I would expect these resistances to be dispensed with in short order.

 

[Caseynotes]

audusd and iron ore chart divergence;

[Mercury]

At the moment the wave B turn looks set with a EWT1-2 small scale follow up retrace and turn (double bottom).  The market has poked above near term resistance but ducked back under.  Remains to be seen if this pair, and other USD pairs make a sustained breakout.  If they do a medium term retrace of some significance is indicated.  Long way to go yet but for AUDUSD and GBPUSD this would be a wave C, strong with few pull backs of significance.

[Mercury]

The AUD has made a nice clean turn at a potential wave B offering me a couple of good Long entries.  There is a chance of a deeper retrace off the pin bar on Friday but it was still a Bullish candle so more likely for me is a continuation and strengthening of the rally.  As with GBP this looks like a wave C and if correct it will carry up with strength.  My preferred target for retrace conclusion on this market is between 7600-7700 in the previous channel breakout zone.  Convestion decrees that this market is not confirmed in rally phase until a breakout of the Triangle line but with other pairs and DX already broken through their respective lines I feel confident of my early Longs, not stop protected at break even in anycase.

[Mercury]

As with other USD pairs AUDUSD is also trending back down.  The drop has been quite hard and the only credible turning point looks like the Fib 76/78% previous channel breakout zone.  It is difficult to be conclusive but the form of the rally is 1-5, which suggests the current bearish move is a counter trend retrace that should rally to new highs.  I will want to see a sustained bounce off the support zone to go long.  

[Mercury]

AUDUSD just made a higher high, possible break through resistance in progress.  Could this be a leading indicator for USD Bearish resumption as GBP and EUR are looking to turn and USDCAD comes up on its own breakout?

[Mercury]

AUDUSD didn't make a breakthrough but poked into resistance was was sharply slapped down to join the other USD pairs in a retrace.  Now AUD has broken a short term Flag and is it makes a lower low looks to be heading down to the Fib 50% at a minimum and likely the Fib 62% before any rally.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD is currently in line with other pairs, having made a nice hit and bounce away from the Fib 62% support zone.  The drop and bounce is a mirror of the wave 1 turn down, a price action signal that a turn may be underway.  There is PMD on the turn and a credible EWT wave count.  Also worth noting that the wave A and C on this move are almost equal in length, a typical relationship for an A-B-C retrace.  Note however that there is a chance this pair could take another leg down for a nibble at the 6900 area for a more exact equivalence, which would be the bottom of the support zone.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD is pleasingly strong at present with a longer rally duration than EUR and GBP.  This makes my Longs off the turn that much more secure against a deep retrace than on other pairs.  This has bee a bit of a feature of AUD for a while now, having seemingly hit the wave B turn earlier than the others and already put in a 1-2 retrace.  This fits as the wave 3 is usually a strong one so I would not expect AUD to retrace too far this time.

[Mercury]

AUDUSD has been particular strong it seems and perhaps one to watch for clues.  Again not sure when the turn will come but I am expecting one before this pair is really set to hit those retrace highs.

[mike8man]

Will AusUSD stay above 6800 at expiry at 3pm UK time today?