Jump to content

What is the USD doing?


Recommended Posts

For me USD is still in a rally phase, although we are currently seeing a bearish retrace, which looks like it should be an EWT 3-4 of the bullish phase that, when concluded, ought to usher in a significant period of bearishness for USD.  I am expecting that Trump will get his way (a lower USD) as the Fed are forced to bring in more and more dovish policy to combat the extreme policies of Japan and the EU and the more recent accomodative reaction of the Chinese to the conora-virus difficulties, although I expect they would have done this anyway.  I am expecting the US economic data to falter again after the end of year throwing of the kitchen sink by C-Suites to bump up the final numbers causes a Q1 rain shadow and an eventual slip into recession.

From a technical perspective (and this can be seen mirrored on EURUSD in particular):

  • Price is contained within a weekly/monthly chart rising Triangle, the upper line of which is very strong.
  • The EWT count looks like a 1-5 (blue) so the current phase could be the final wave 5.  If so we can expect a 1-5 profile with the Fib 76/78% resistance zone around 100.
  • There is very strong NMD on the weekly but not yet on the Daily, which suggests another leg up on lower momentum to trigger a daily NMD at the turn.

Overall I am expecting a USD capitulation to have a massive impact across capital markets, as much because of the drivers of such a trend change as the impact of a lower USD.  I do expect the current rallies in GBPUSD and EURUSD to be short lived but both USDCAD and USDJPY are at important pivotal points from a technical perspective and could turn earlier than the others.

DX-Weekly_220220.thumb.png.278db491cf65dcd87935b3e6ff41576f.pngDX-Daily_220220.thumb.png.91b58d58a52f9a548fb9e1144c6e6407.png

Link to comment
16 hours ago, Mercury said:

Overall I am expecting a USD capitulation

Won't happen.

Who will take over from the mighty dollar?

Europe? 🤣

China? 🤣🤣

Russia?  🤣🤣 🤣

Little England?  🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣

 

I tell you what though ... when Bernie Sanders becomes President, the rich will have a HUUUUGE temper tantrum and throw all their toys out of the pram ... but the working people will take over :D:D:D

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment

Gotta say USD looks to have turned earlier than I thought it would, mostly EURUSD driven it seems.  Looking for a relief rally before things really get going with EURUSD current on a key LT resistance trend line and GBPUSD still looking bearish and USDJPY rallying behind a stocks buy the dip but when the relief rally is over then I think GBPUSD Longs will be the place to be and if this is correlated with a major stocks bear turn then USDJPY Short will also be a good bet.  I do not thing EURO is the place to be.  AUDUSD might work also.

DX-Daily_020320.thumb.png.58f96a1a46f097e43c52d251b18f8ebd.png

Link to comment
24 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

US stocks soar

To be fair, 'soar' is an impression given by 1 minute chart which is pretty extreme (I've never heard of a successful investor who traded on 1 minute charts, although some traders claim to be able to do it).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Just now, dmedin said:

To be fair, 'soar' is an impression given by 1 minute chart which is pretty extreme (I've never heard of a successful investor who traded on 1 minute charts, although some traders claim to be able to do it).

Yes this is true, fast bull movement would have been a better choice of words

  • Great! 1
Link to comment
2 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

Yes this is true, fast bull movement would have been a better choice of words

On the 4 hour chart there's an indecision candle forming so I closed out to wait and see which way it resolves on ...

Link to comment

US news this afternoon: 

13:30 GMT: 

USD Nonfarm Productivity (Q4)

Prev: 1.4%

Est: 1.4%

 

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 28)

Prev: 219K

Est: 215K

 

USD Unit Labor costs

Prev: 1.4%

Est: 1.4%

 

USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Feb 28)

Prev: 209.75K

 

15:00 GMT:

USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)

Prev: 1.8%

Est: -0.1%

 

Link to comment

USD bear turn looks complete to me, a little under my 10,000 target but no matter.  After such a near vertical initial move I am waiting for the inevitable relief rally, although at this stage I am leaning toward this being relatively shallow, maybe to the Fib 38% levels rather than a 50 or 62 but let's see.  Not saying the wave 1 turn is in yet but the pin bar price action on the daily on Friday could be setting up the turn, however the lack of a clean PMD (NMD on FX pairs) makes me thing we could see another lower low before the turn.  For me I don't much care because I would be seeking to enter/add to FX pairs (preferably JPY and GBP) after said pull back not to trade the pull back itself so wait and see is my approach.

If we look back at the bigger picture that A-B-C (Purple) is very much on, which places the markets in a wave C of B.  The turn into wave C seems conclusive enough to me now just about tracking for a pull back entry point to get in on a decent wave 3 of C bear run for USD which could move quite quickly.  Such a move would deliver many 1000s of points on key FX pairs and I see GBP doing better than the Euro.  I don't see USD turning into it's big Bull phase until the Donald looses control of the Fed and/or the country (Biden is the bookies favourite apparently) AND stocks show a significant bearish trend, dare I say crash.

DX-Monthly_070320.thumb.png.e51c4bc713fb46b618e81427de865a85.pngDX-Weekly_070320.thumb.png.85641a76af1f9739135344aba278094f.pngDX-Daily_070320.thumb.png.156e6f04362c3789b5fa4152f6bb01e7.png

Link to comment
10 minutes ago, CharlotteIG said:

image.png

US rallying sharply against other currencies but not much impact on indices. 

 

 


Demand for USD - obviously not for use in buying U.S. shares - must be going somewhere else.  U.S. government bonds?

Pound and FTSE both falling.  What does that mean? 😱

  • Like 1
Link to comment
  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Very sceptical article from Reuters:

Quote

July 2 (Reuters) – Financial market rallies built on stimulus stemming from negative events are apt to burst and prompt a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which is the chief beneficiary of turmoil.

Stock markets and commodities have soared but little of those gains were due to positive news. Rallies have been borne out of hope or based on the example taken from rallies inspired by stimulus after 2008 when the financial crisis hit.

There is one big difference. Toady's' rallies have happened far more quickly and in an almost reckless desire to brush aside the impact of the coronavirus.

That's a mighty gamble. In 2008 economies were severely damaged but never closed altogether. In 2020 many major economies virtually stopped.

This year the dollar rose 6.4% then dropped 3% after April. Betting has swung hugely. USD 17 billion is now staked on a drop after USD 18 billion was wagered on the dollar rising in February.

The dollar can drop a further 2% and the total decline from 2020's peak would still represent a correction of this year's rise and would also meet the minimum objective for a technical correction of its rise from 2018's low.

It's a good spot to back a rebound.

For more simply click on FXBUZ

 

Link to comment
  • 1 month later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • The BLUM project has recently gained attention in the cryptocurrency community due to several developments such as  Introduction of a mining game on the TON ecosystem, allowing users to earn $BLUM tokens.  Announcement of new strategic partnerships Upcoming features including Tribes and Memepad functionalities.  Active community engagement through events and rewards 5. Recognition from notable figures in the crypto space Key upcoming events: Token Generation Event (TGE) for the BLUM mining game scheduled for September 20, 2024 Coinciding airdrop of BLUM tokens to the community The project plans to provide liquidity on centralized exchanges such as Bitget and Binance, as well as decentralized exchanges like Uniswap, Curve, and PancakeSwap. These developments have contributed to increased discussions about BLUM on social media platforms, particularly Twitter. As the crypto landscape evolves rapidly, interested individuals are encouraged to stay informed about BLUM's progress through official channels and related TON communities like r/TONDiscussion.  As with any cryptocurrency project, potential participants should conduct thorough research and consider their own risk tolerance before engaging.
    • Counter Fire is poised to redefine the gaming industry with its innovative blend of competitive gameplay and blockchain technology. The game offers multiple modes, including team-based matches of quads, duos, and solos along with solo missions, with deep customization options and dynamic battle scenarios. While the core gameplay of Counter Fire is similar to PUBG, a battle-royal where the last-man or last-team standing wins in a survival gameplay, users earn while playing Counter Fires. The project has been buzzing the ecosystem as the airdrop claim went live today so users can claim their $CEC and await listing on 9th Sept. While gamers continue to claim their tokens, some analysts have start speculating that the project will redefine the gaming landscape citing the project partnership with likes of YoubiCapital, HASHKEY, KERNEL ventures and many more and the fact that the project raised over $5 million as the base for their argument. The project partnership with Bitget could also be a reason it continues to gain such exposure as players can only claim their token to the exchange. Though, as players claim their token to the exchange, they could benefit some reward from the 1 million $CEC reward pool. I still think many exchanges should list the token so gamers can have many choices.
    • Hi @feirb1, Thank you for your post. Please note that we offer T-Bills for trading on leveraged accounts. By trading these, you will be speculating on the price movements. This means that, when trading, you´ll never take ownership of an actual t-bill. Instead, you´ll take a position on the market either rising in value or falling. Thanks, KoketsoIG
×
×
  • Create New...
us