Jump to content

Stock market turning points - are we there yet?


Recommended Posts

HaHa!  And yet true, timing is everything and the Bear always gets the Bull in the end.  If not a case of IF but When.  Buy low sell high.  Bull markets end on over confidence ("this time it's different!"; Just look at the trend man!").

Check these out!  And so on and so on.

ATHyell.jpg.ada0a7045c919256a96156226bdfbe0c.jpgBlinkers.jpg.656cc08a5ce2251556e915967236e46f.jpgFedgotyourback.jpg.f776f6c6456f7ddcacf2961d6418288c.jpgGlobalslowdown.jpg.97797c00c13b5fdbf6b7e1f1920e4441.jpgMathsMyth.jpg.e6dbbba9aa893141986f65e616cd4375.jpgDeathofretail.jpg.4aa7b837d0981f32e8465c6a3a516369.jpgHerd.jpg.810d7e6c88a2d481e015538658d1ab14.jpg

Link to comment
7 hours ago, Mercury said:

the Bear always gets the Bull in the end

 

Yes, which is why almost 100% of financial advisers tell their clients to buy and hold a diversified portfolio over the long term.  Because the only phenomenon that is reasonably certain is that things in general will go up in value over time (25+ years), so long as you don't put your eggs all in one basket 😮 

Link to comment
14 hours ago, dmedin said:

Yes, which is why almost 100% of financial advisers tell their clients to buy and hold a diversified portfolio over the long term

Yes because they want you to keep your money invested.  That is how they make money so they have a vested interest in punters keeping their money in.

14 hours ago, dmedin said:

Because the only phenomenon that is reasonably certain is that things in general will go up in value over time (25+ years)

Yes in a bull market but as soon as things turn nasty (1929 nasty) that strategy fails spectacularly.  Unless you believe it will never happen again...?  It took 30 years for the stock markets to regain the 1929 highs.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
10 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Yes in a bull market but as soon as things turn nasty (1929 nasty) that strategy fails spectacularly. 

The last time that happened, the West nearly became communist.  They only held that off by implementing the welfare state and massive public works (not to mention war, to clear out the 'surplus population')!  I doubt the rich would allow things to get that bad again but you never know.

Link to comment
25 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I doubt the rich would allow things to get that bad again

Gordon Brown tried to hold back the tides of the markets and was found out.  The current crop will fall to similar hubris.  They should have learned the lesson of King Canute but human nature never changes, which is why technical analysis works and swing spotting turns is a favourite occupation among the major traders of the World.

As to Communist, Marxism ets etc, topical in the UK right now with Marxist IRA sympathizers seeking to be elected to the highest offices in the land, it is a form of government that on a large scale has been proven to be bad for people, good for tyrants.  A lot of people forget that dictatorships rise out of not just far right politics but also far left.  Both are undesirable.  

As Churchill said, "democracy is the worst form of government, apart from all the others."  Knew a thing or two about tyranny is Churchill...

Link to comment

Early days but looks like a possible turn on the Dax with most others showing similar signs.  If GBPUSD and EURUSD stage a rally this could provide some additional short term impetus.  Gold/Silver has been quite buoyant of late, maybe the gold bugs sense a stocks correction?  One to watch.

DAX-Daily_171219.thumb.png.04c887055f7aa89017da5a1d92a5d3fc.pngDAX-1-hour_171219.thumb.png.872ad9f46116ef34c27f548ded8a0db2.png

  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment

Despite the US large caps progression into the santa rally and the Russell 2000 life accordingly the Dax and Nikkei have remained in doubt.  the FTSE100 did stage a rally but remains under the previous high at the Fib 88% and therefore still in bearish/sideways territory.  I remain unconvinced by the rally and so does the Vix it seems as it held onto its levels and even rally a bit towards the end of trading this week.

Most of the markets put in a bearish end yesterday and potentially at key resistance points.  There is nothing conclusive as yet and so early trading next week will be instructive.  I have a cheeky short on the Dax at present but currently I am favouring USD pairs and Gold/Silver as trading vehicles over stocks.

SPTRD-Daily_281219.thumb.png.4a0772c81e86abe820e8b479ea1790da.pngRUSSELL-Daily_281219.thumb.png.ea535f9577628bbe4a04b2a3da7ece9e.pngNIKKEI-Daily_281219.thumb.png.5694f812507a2f3035d7c1602c32f316.pngDAX-Daily_281219.thumb.png.bac411968a36136a5378a1f99ac64496.pngFTSE100-Daily_281219.thumb.png.c4a6c94c9a0dd2b0e44a186173a6a1e1.png164669300_VolatilityIndex_20191228_16_48.thumb.png.a291f02cfa28e2ad932c48109247f6e7.png 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
5 minutes ago, Mercury said:

Most of the markets put in a bearish end yesterday

 

So you don't think it's fairly reasonable to have a dip (possibly indicating taking profits) after such a prolonged rally?

 

Those are some pretty pessimistic predictions for FTSE 100 and DAX.  I take it you aren't actually trading  for such drastic moves, but speculating them.

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment
19 hours ago, dmedin said:

So you don't think it's fairly reasonable to have a dip (possibly indicating taking profits) after such a prolonged rally?

Of course but you have plenty of perma bull posters...  I also think there is equally a good chance of a sustained bearish phase after such a strong rally, don't you?

19 hours ago, dmedin said:

Those are some pretty pessimistic predictions for FTSE 100 and DAX. 

Not really, also not predictions, merely scenario possibilities.  The level of pull back is far less that a "normal 10-20% correction after all and we have seen several bearish pull backs over the past few years, all of which I have traded successfully...

19 hours ago, dmedin said:

I take it you aren't actually trading  for such drastic moves, but speculating them.

Not sure what you mean here by speculating???  Perhaps you didn't read my post completely...

19 hours ago, Mercury said:

I have a cheeky short on the Dax at present but currently I am favouring USD pairs and Gold/Silver as trading vehicles over stocks.

 

  • Great! 1
Link to comment

Dax has continued it bearishness all morning and now has an additional boost from weak US open.  It is approaching its daily channel lower line for a breakout test.  Meanwhile the Nikkei looks to have broken out after a bearish session last night, which also saw the Yen gather strength for a test of its daily channel.

Across the US large caps and the Russell 2000 we seem to have a 1H channel breakout, which if followed up will produce a test of respective daily channel lower lines.  Breaks of these will open the way to that significant bearish move (correction or otherwise...) that has been on the cards for a week or more.  Now that Santa is back in the North Pole and a slew of US economic data us due out over the next week and a half things could get interesting in a hurry...  Predictably the Vix is rallying and may be about to break a trend line to the upside

DAX-Daily_301219.thumb.png.48a3593db4477e30230fbdc689c26a23.pngDAX-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.d1080ef6e9b42e480ee2f90b7c064b8d.pngNIKKEI-Daily_301219.thumb.png.b1a729591ff8c9df749eda91ac76214a.pngNIKKEI-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.fa85be3221d2be4cea49d136fabdcdf5.pngDJI-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.477e2564ec799eb7f3810a046dc592b9.pngSPTRD-1-hour_301219.thumb.png.32da80598ba3e06c3c8e7332494f69af.png1718892641_VolatilityIndex_20191230_15_08.thumb.png.c9d74f9df4dd78518ea18c8a94e53e49.png

Link to comment

Victoria says the Nasdaq tech 100 has returned 35% in 2019.  Imagine if someone had bought long and held, instead of trying to trade tops and bottoms. They would have made 35% in capital appreciation, plus income in the form of dividends, all from doing absolutely nothing!  Wow!    But apparently they are going to drag this year, so maybe we should all be selling short and holding :P

 

 

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • MetalCore sounds like a thrilling sci-fi MMO with giant mechs and strategic battles. MetalCore offers some unique features that stand out like pen-World Exploration, explore the war-torn planet Kerberos and uncover secrets beyond just battlefields, choice and Factions, by Selecting a faction with a unique ideology and playstyle to shape your experience and deep Crafting System, with a build and customize your arsenal of mechs, vehicles, and war machines for maximum impact also includes baronies and Guilds form powerful player-driven guilds to pool resources and dominate the battlefield together. So, is MetalCore the ultimate open-world mech MMO with Play-to-Earn because it got listed on Bitget? What do you think? Is MetalCore the future of mech combat MMOs, or just another contender? Have you explored any other mech combat games or Play-to-Earn projects? Share your thoughts in the comments!
    • Silver Elliott Wave Analysis Function -Counter-Trend Mode - Corrective Structure -Double Zigzag for wave B (circled) Position - Wave (Y) of B Direction - Wave (Y) of B is still in play Details - After violating the last update, we have a new outlook on daily and H4 that better fits the current price action. A lower extension is now expected for Silver. Silver Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Decline and Bullish Outlook Overview: The decline in Silver that began on May 20th is continuing to extend lower and is expected to persist before finding significant support. Despite this downturn, the year-long trend remains bullish and is anticipated to resume once this corrective phase concludes. The emerging chart pattern suggests a further decline towards $27 in the coming days or weeks.   Daily Chart Analysis: Two key observations can be made on the daily chart: Bullish Yearly Trend: The trend for this year has been bullish, leading to a breakout from a prior 13-month sideways price action. This indicates strong underlying bullish momentum. Corrective Decline: The current decline from April 19th, 2024, is identified as corrective. Therefore, the expectation is that the bullish trend will resume once this corrective structure concludes.   To determine when the corrective structure will finish, it’s important to identify the emerging pattern. Early analysis suggests that the price might be forming a double zigzag Elliott wave corrective structure, labeled as waves (W)-(X)-(Y). Wave (W) and wave (X) completed on June 13th and June 21st, respectively. The price is now breaking down in wave (Y), which could extend to $27 or lower. Meanwhile, the year-long impulse is labeled as wave A (circled) in the primary degree, and the double zigzag pullback should complete the corresponding primary degree wave B (circled). Following this, wave (C) is expected to push the price to a fresh 2024 high.   H4 Chart Analysis: The H4 chart provides a detailed view of the sub-waves within the double zigzag structure. The price is currently in wave A of (Y), which is expected to be followed by a minor corrective bounce for wave B. Afterward, the price should continue lower for wave C, completing wave (Y) of B (circled). This pattern aligns with the broader expectation of a corrective phase before the resumption of the bullish trend.   Summary: Current Decline: Silver’s decline from May 20th is expected to continue towards $27 before finding support. Bullish Yearly Trend: Despite the current downturn, the overall trend for the year remains bullish. Corrective Structure: The decline is forming a double zigzag Elliott wave corrective structure. Daily Chart Insight: The trend is expected to resume higher after the completion of the current wave B. H4 Chart Detail: Sub-waves show a minor bounce expected before a further decline to complete wave (Y) of B. In conclusion, while Silver is currently experiencing a corrective decline, the long-term bullish trend is anticipated to resume once this phase concludes. Traders should watch for a potential bottom around $27 and prepare for a renewed bullish impulse towards new highs in 2024. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • Honestly, L2 scaling solution projects are now increasing by the day. Should we worry about that? Absolutely, not. Why? Because it reduce overdependence on one solution and increase adoption. Also, focusing on different aspect of scaling is a good thing; for instance, Blast focus on staking ETH and stablecoin reinforces security on their network and Ethereum mainnet which increases users' confidence in blockchain and crypto.
×
×
  • Create New...
us