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On 26/04/2019 at 15:19, Caseynotes said:

Big drop in oil down to support at 63.124, needs to hold here or a drop to 60.00 looks likely.

 

On 05/05/2019 at 10:48, Caseynotes said:

So looking at just the chart structure where would you expect the bulls to be gathering to mount a serious challenge after their profit taking (and if the fundamentals were encouraging enough for them to even try)? NB; Oil likes round numbers.

US oil back up to 63.00 yesterday after the bounce up off 60.00, need to check here and look for a clue as to next  direction.

image.thumb.png.2816f8278b65f1f1b0dc1d7c813f852c.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
Guest bandrew

Brent expiry day today, with a new physical program longer than June. The Dated Brent market has had a spectacular rally in the past 3 weeks, but most of the length has priced out now and the market is not looking to position further. Additionally, weak flat price is providing the environment for a “toppy market” so we expect high volatility in the next few days. Considerable volume on the sell side of both flat price and spreads this morning, which are moving together for the first time in weeks. This is indicative of longs exiting their positions

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7 hours ago, PandaFace said:

Thoughts on ultra sell off and 40 bucks oil @elle ?

was this the message ?    In my amateur opinion , things are being engineered to allow the FED to cut rates. That was some selling in oil this week so more to come

Capture carney.PNG

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Guest backwardation

Looks to me like a H&S (starting June 5th) that's about to complete the last down leg.  But what happens after that?  Crude hasn't been following the SPX up.

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9 minutes ago, backwardation said:

Looks to me like a H&S (starting June 5th) that's about to complete the last down leg.  But what happens after that?  Crude hasn't been following the SPX up.

Hi @backwardation,  not really seeing a case for a H&S pattern as the overall price action would need to be heading into it from below not above, there is a case for an inverse H&S if we get a turn around and a break of the neckline. 

Yes, Oil is a bit out of step with the S&P at the mo, see weekly chart comparison second down.

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image.thumb.png.43c25e757adf1fe5eb21aae4a9e86507.png

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42 minutes ago, backwardation said:

Looks to me like a H&S (starting June 5th) that's about to complete the last down leg.  But what happens after that?  Crude hasn't been following the SPX up.

@backwardation, good point about oil and S&P being out of sync though there are always going to be adjustments especially on the lesser time frames, also interesting is that gold isn't playing ball at the moment either as it heads higher. Money is being shifted around on a continual basis it's not always easy to keep track of it, the more eyes out the better.

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Just now, backwardation said:

Could be @backwardation, I've seen similar reports in a few places over the last few days and indeed Govts do go on spending sprees esp China, India and Russia but that's probably past as usually they buy at the low rather than the high ie they're smarter than Gordon Brown who sells at the low ☹️ 

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