Having run the numbers with my trading algorithm I have developed with the IG Index API, I thought that I might offer some insight. As always this is my own thoughts, ideas and opinions. It might help some of the newer investors.
Let me explain this graph. Whilst I believe I hold some authority around various parts of the internet with regards to this as I have invested alot of time and effort into this system most of the code is released for free, let me attempt to explain. This graph is produced from my own code/trading algo which I am happy to discuss if you so wish. I can do analysis on other stocks, pairs whatever if there is demand for it.
The blue dashed line's are the high and low prices for each week, In this case over the last 52 weeks. The green dots are the "Peak Detection Algorithm", As you can see from the graph it is good at predicting when the price will turn around. Each dot representing a turn around in price.
The grey area is the VWAP, The Volume Weighted Average Price.
The red dashed line is what the price is currently sat at (mid price), As you can also see it is sitting right on a green dot, This is a signal to say that the price is about to turn around. BUT beware. There are ALOT more peaks beneath the VWAP price (Count them) which indicates there is some serious downward pressure there, It's failed to get off the ground. Not many buyers!.
I have various rules attached to how this would be traded So my analysis for the next week is such that there will be a quite a down-tick in price (see the last green dot, It's just started), With significant price pressure downwards. Not to mention 4000 been a "Psychological Price barrier"
My time is limited but if you wish I can produce graphs based on lower-time frames, Hour's etc to show the turn around points to plan your trades accordingly.