Gold Weekly

[Caseynotes]

Time to start a new thread on Gold now that it's broken free and into fresh space, included is the monthly chart with the major resistance levels ahead though after what looks like being this months large bull candle (so far) will likely see a check of support or a pause initially though. I'll post a link to the previous gold thread for continuity of the charts.

Someone else posted an interesting Gold chart a few days ago, some might know the name Anton Kreil an ex Goldman Sachs desk trader I think, well respected, made millions. He did the video posted on the forum recently where he spends an hour telling you that brokers are bad and that retail traders can't make money then spends the next hour telling that they can, if they sign up to his new, eye wateringly expensive, traders institute. Anyway, he just posted a chart and account info showing a profit of some $700,000 on gold trades over the last month and a half. His trading credentials are not in dispute but the interesting thing is he was using a broker and an MT4 account. He's deleted the dates of the trades for some reason which has raised eyebrows, and of course it's tagged 'this could be you if you join my institute'.

 

[gautamhait]

6 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Time to start a new thread on Gold now that it's broken free and into fresh space, included is the monthly chart with the major resistance levels ahead though after what looks like being this months large bull candle (so far) will likely see a check of support or a pause initially though. I'll post a link to the previous gold thread for continuity of the charts.

Someone else posted an interesting Gold chart a few days ago, some might know the name Anton Kreil an ex Goldman Sachs desk trader I think, well respected, made millions. He did the video posted on the forum recently where he spends an hour telling you that brokers are bad and that retail traders can't make money then spends the next hour telling that they can, if they sign up to his new, eye wateringly expensive, traders institute. Anyway, he just posted a chart and account info showing a profit of some $700,000 on gold trades over the last month and a half. His trading credentials are not in dispute but the interesting thing is he was using a broker and an MT4 account. He's deleted the dates of the trades for some reason which has raised eyebrows, and of course it's tagged 'this could be you if you join my institute'.

 

Gold silver trading tips sir ??

[Caseynotes]

34 minutes ago, gautamhait said:

Gold silver trading tips sir ??

No problem @gautamhait, looking at the Gold hourly chart below you can see price has nudged hard up against resistance at 1400. If you look back the largest blue breakout candles occurred at 1:00 am and 2:00 am (UK time) on Thursday and Friday, it would not be unreasonable to expect another attempt to break above 1400 around that time on Monday morning so a stop entry order above 1400 looking for price to attempt a retest of the recent high 1411 would seem in order. I would keep the stop loss tight as 1400 is make or break so just beyond the red trendline would seem reasonable, if 1400 were to hold and the trendline was broken I wouldn't want to stay in a long trade anyway.    

[dmedin]

This Anton Kreil sounds like a chancer... why's he trying to make money off providing training if he can make all the money he needs from trading on his own account

Edited June 24, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

This Anton Kreil sounds like a chancer... why's he trying to make money off providing training if he can make all the money he needs from trading on his own account

Fair point @dmedin but I think that may be the answer, he's not only a chancer but a very good one. His trading credentials are cast iron, well documented over many years, very successful and made an awful lot of money. Once you've built up a reputation like that it can be put to work at no cost. The organisation would have taken time to set up but once that was done probably runs with minimal oversight from himself and really just feeds off his reputation. I'm sure taking money off rich noobs is a lot easier than actual trading with far less risk to capital.

[Caseynotes]

4 hours ago, dmedin said:

This Anton Kreil sounds like a chancer... why's he trying to make money off providing training if he can make all the money he needs from trading on his own account

Just to add to that 'Anton Kreil chancer' bit @dmedin, someone asked him 'why no stop loss' on the 50 lots long gold trade, his reply was 'professionals don't need stops'  😎

[Guest mykig]

He is rite professionals don't need stops as they anticipate before head exactly what will be happening in future and they can predict that after so much days that's where we will be they only keep eye on their stocks now and then.Now that might sounds illogical or funny to you but that's exactly whats happening . 

 

[Guest mykig]

Banks won't let chancer to come even near their doors because they have people monies to play with hence they can't rely on chancers like myself lol😀

[Guest Sacha1]

Reasons why Gold Can Reach New Highs with Ease.

• Stocks and Indices are going down med, long term.
• Re Stocks, all the interest rate nonsense is already well priced in so will have very limited upside and be short lived upsides.
• China is the new super power and will drive US tech markets into the ground .For China this trade war outcome will be a test of pride.
• Iran have also had enough of being pushed around so are happy to play with fire.
• Gold stalls between each big move up.
• Clearly the markets are failing and gold remains the go to hold.
• S&P 500, Dax, FTSE 100 or Gold XAU ? Take a look.
• Also what has not been priced into stocks is the really bad data which will soon emerge on a much larger scale and trigger a huge sell off. It's a triple whammy type affair especially when you consider Iran on top.
• US GDP will be sliding for sometime to come. Interest rates can't hide a failing stock market. 
• Eurozone stocks are already post rally. US to follow in quick succession. 
• A slump in German business confidence deepens in June as trade tensions weighed on manufacturers. These facts won't stop coming now.
• the gold stall is almost flat now on 3& 4hr charts. Need it to now become over sold. May drop again quite a bit before becoming oversold and ready for next climb.
• Gold out of 6 hr dip on 1hr chart. Rising.
• now slowly progressing too oversold status = buy
• Banks cutting deposit interest rates will be a catalyst for further buying of Gold. 

HSBC Forecasts ECB To Cut Deposit Rate 10Bps In Sept, Dec Does Not Expect ECB Deposit Rate To Drop Below Minus 0.6% Does Not See Imminent Restart Of QE By ECB

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, Sacha1 said:

US GDP will be sliding for sometime to come. Interest rates can't hide a failing stock market. 

US indices sitting at the all time highs, probably the key print this week is the US GDP on Thursday q/q annualised and expected at 3.1% which is a very healthy figure, a big miss will really help Gold up.

[Guest Sacha1]

Yes, the Fed will be attempting to prop up the US economy with each sequential dip in GDP. I do hope that those who had cash in stocks in 2007 have got good memories!

[Guest Sacha1]

[phillo]

maybe a retest of that breakdown candle ?

[Caseynotes]

Very directional thus far but looks to have run into the bears this morning so we'll see just how strong they are.

[Caseynotes]

After breaking up through resistance at 1415 Gold looked to be on for a retest of the recent high at 1439 but has returned to check support and will be hoping to find it here at 1415 where old resistance may turn to support. 

So what price does at this key level will determine whether we are looking for a long target of the recent high or a short target back down to 1400.

[Guest davidbrister]

Hey @Caseynotes, after the Weekends USA and Chinas trade talks, whats your feeling on Movement monday morning, Up or Down?

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, davidbrister said:

Hey @Caseynotes, after the Weekends USA and Chinas trade talks, whats your feeling on Movement monday morning, Up or Down?

Good question @davidbrister,  you would have to expect that this being 'new' news not available to the markets before Friday close would shift sentiment away from risk off and towards risk on. If that proves to be the case you could also expect to see the normal associated market shifts such as indices, stocks, oil up and gold, bonds and USD down. The Weekend Wall Street chart is up 111 points on the news. Might not get much reaction from oil as OPEC have their price setting meeting on Monday and Tuesday so oil traders will be cautious but gold we may well see a move lower to test support and 1400 would seem a likely first port of call.

 

[dmedin]

I have two Fib ratios, 1396 and 1370, have been wavering which one I'd like to buy at.  Settled for 1370.  Need a decent pullback after such a run!

[Guest davidbrister]

so simply then - Down on open

 

[Caseynotes]

33 minutes ago, davidbrister said:

so simply then - Down on open

 

There is the chance price could  just take off like a bat out of somewhere very hot but personally if that happened I would just let it go, there will always be a pullback somewhere. There is likely to be a gap on the open even if there was no new news (eg last week) and there may well be an initial attempt to close the gap.

Or it could just turn out a normal London or US market open where there is usually a short period of jostling as over night/weekend orders are pushed through and new positions are opened in reaction and it can take a few minutes or as much as an hour before the direction of the morning session becomes clear.

That's what I look for, where everyone can see that one side has taken control, once you know direction targets become obvious so then it's just a case of looking for a pullback that weakens, dies and rolls over.

Not the most exciting of strategies but the most dependable.

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

I have two Fib ratios, 1396 and 1370, have been wavering which one I'd like to buy at.  Settled for 1370.  Need a decent pullback after such a run!

To tell the truth @dmedin I wouldn't think like that, because you could draw all the lines you like on your chart but really price could easily ignore 100% of them instead of just the usual 99.9%. 

If you look closely at a price ladder or even a M1 candle, you can see the rapid up and down fluctuations as orders and counter orders are processed. No one placing those orders is sure what will happen next. They do not know if their buy contract which is matched to a sell contract will turn a profit, or if the seller will instead. And these are the big guys that know what they're doing and can affect price.

As a retail trader once you have entered the market you have handed over all control of that trade to the big guys, you are totally dependent on a big trader coming in behind you to push price in your direction. You may be supported at a level or not, who knows, as stated above even the big guys don't know themselves, you are more likely to be supported between important levels because the controlling side will be reloading and adding to positions while the opposition are gathering up ahead in the rocks above the pass preparing for battle at the next important level.

Find the important levels where you can expect battle, identify who has won the battle and the direction of price movement, then look for an entry.

[dmedin]

6 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

To tell the truth @dmedin I wouldn't think like that, because you could draw all the lines you like on your chart but really price could easily ignore 100% of them instead of just the usual 99.9%. 

If you look closely at a price ladder or even a M1 candle, you can see the rapid up and down fluctuations as orders and counter orders are processed. No one placing those orders is sure what will happen next. They do not know if their buy contract which is matched to a sell contract will turn a profit, or if the seller will instead. And these are the big guys that know what they're doing and can affect price.

As a retail trader once you have entered the market you have handed over all control of that trade to the big guys, you are totally dependent on a big trader coming in behind you to push price in your direction. You may be supported at a level or not, who knows, as stated above even the big guys don't know themselves, you are more likely to be supported between important levels because the controlling side will be reloading and adding to positions while the opposition are gathering up ahead in the rocks above the pass preparing for battle at the next important level.

Find the important levels where you can expect battle, identify who has won the battle and the direction of price movement, then look for an entry.

 

Right now it looks like it's moved too far away from its 50 MA

[Caseynotes]

36 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Right now it looks like it's moved too far away from its 50 MA

Ha, you forgot to highlight all the round numbers too, gold is like oil, old school and old school like round numbers🙂

Sooo, you've picked a Fib level at random, put in a buy limit entry order with a 10 point stop, according to your back test stats how often does that work out for you?

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Ha, you forgot to highlight all the round numbers too, gold is like oil, old school and old school like round numbers🙂

Sooo, you've picked a Fib level at random, put in a buy limit entry order with a 10 point stop, according to your back test stats how often does that work out for you?

 

I haven't done any backtesting yet, hence all the wavering.  I see that backtesting is possible in PRT so I need to spend time learning how to do it.

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I haven't done any backtesting yet, hence all the wavering.  I see that backtesting is possible in PRT so I need to spend time learning how to do it.

That would be good or it can be done manually or by keeping a log of demo trades as described in the Trade planning thread, it's surprising how many great ideas don't actually work when put to the test ☹️

[Caseynotes]

On 29/06/2019 at 18:00, Caseynotes said:

Good question @davidbrister,  you would have to expect that this being 'new' news not available to the markets before Friday close would shift sentiment away from risk off and towards risk on. If that proves to be the case you could also expect to see the normal associated market shifts such as indices, stocks, oil up and gold, bonds and USD down. The Weekend Wall Street chart is up 111 points on the news. Might not get much reaction from oil as OPEC have their price setting meeting on Monday and Tuesday so oil traders will be cautious but gold we may well see a move lower to test support and 1400 would seem a likely first port of call.

So blew straight through 1400 and brought to a halt further down at 1383, thought about an attempt at the gap fill but looks now like preferring a second look at 1383.

[Caseynotes]

A round trip for Gold today after this mornings post, down to retest support at 1381 then back up to retest resistance around 1396 and now down at 1390.

 

[Caseynotes]

Currently mid recent range (1396 - 1382), may enjoy Trump shifting his sights towards Europe re; trade tariffs 

H1 chart;

[Caseynotes]

Big surge in Gold up (1415) , Oil down (56.50), Indices unmoved, no real news though tomorrow is a short day in the US before the 4th July holiday.  

[Caseynotes]

Finds support within reach of the prior high.

H1 chart;