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Market themes for 2020

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If you are a contrarian, what do you think of this?

"Another Hedge Fund Giant Bites the Macro Dust"

"In total, hedge fund assets have declined by $77 billion this year alone, the research firm estimates, leaving the industry as a whole managing a smidgen more than $3 trillion. "



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Fanciful but worthwhile article from Reuters ...


“in the 2020s it seems inevitable that a world of helicopter money awaits,” Deutsche Bank predicts.



Universal basic income?  I think it's more likely people will be forced to work on precarious contracts for very low wages.  Especially now that Britain will become 'Singapore on steroids' and have a great bonfire of 'red tape' such as human rights, environmental protections and rights for workers (which do nothing but stop companies being efficient and profitable - bah!  Humbug!)

Edited by dmedin
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57 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Absolutely every year-end, without fail, you find some clown writing this type of scare story. Journos gotta write something I suppose. 


But if you are bull this is great news😁

Its when the last bear give up and starts buying Tesla the end is near for the bull





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My prediction for DOW the year 2020 (for what its worth) 😎

I think we will see some profit taking in January (maybe 5% or so down to 27 000 ish?)

Then straight up to 30 000 in a couple of months (spring time?)

Then its time to start worry about the US election and take profit with VIX rising

If Trump wins we could get a relief rally and if some democrat wins then its time to prepare for a bearmarket in stocks


" “they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president.” 


He also blasted what he views as her anti-capitalist positions, including a proposed wealth tax.

“I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. "



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2 hours ago, Kodiak said:

they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president.

This will help to remind people of the highly anti-democratic nature of the international financial system, and that the international financier can manufacture a crisis as quickly in America or Britain as he can in Venezuela.  Will be interesting to see how the 99.99% react when the 0.01% throw a temper tantrum when asked to pay a little bit more tax on their multi-billion fortunes.

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    • Brent crude oil, orange juice stabilise while copper advances as US debt ceiling bill gets signed Outlook on Brent crude oil, orange juice and copper as US House of Representatives approves bill to raise debt ceiling. Source: Bloomberg  Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 June 2023  Brent crude oil prices finds interim support The price of Brent crude oil, having dropped by over 6% over the past two days on possible weaker Chinese demand, a surprise build in US crude inventories and as Russia doesn’t adhere to its OPEC+ agreed output cuts, is stabilising. Better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI from the private Caixin survey led to buying on Thursday and so far has taken the oil price back towards the $73.37 mid-May low which may act as initial resistance. Above it lies further minor resistance at the 17 May $74.02 low and also at the 22 May $74.47 low. On Wednesday Brent crude oil stabilised marginally above its $71.40 early May low, along the March-to-May support line at $72.20 on a daily chart closing basis. Earlier this morning it also acted as support. Only a currently unexpected drop through the $71.51 to $71.40 support zone would lead to the March trough at $70.09 being hit. Source: ProRealTime Copper recovery off its six-month low is gaining traction The price of copper is in the process of breaking through its two-month downtrend line at $8,130 per ton as the US House of Representatives approved a bill to raise the debt ceiling. It will now be sent to the Senate, which is expected to rubber stamp the bill before President Joe Biden can sign it into law ahead of June 5, when the US would be in default. If the copper price were to close on the daily chart above Tuesday’s $8,185 high, the last reaction high, it could extend its recent gains to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,373. This technical view will remain valid as long as the last reaction low, that is Wednesday’s low at $8,038, underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Source: ProRealTime Orange juice price flirts with uptrend line Front month orange juice futures have come off last week’s all-time record high at $2.8721 and are likely to retest their one-month uptrend line at $2.7030 as Brazil may increase its supply. If slid through, the 8 May high at $2.5348 would be eyed with further potential support sitting at last week’s $2.6663 to $2.6430 price gap. Resistance remains to be seen around the $2.8038 April high. Source: ProRealTime
    • Dow and CAC40 stabilise while Nasdaq 100 edges down The Dow and CAC40 have rallied off their Wednesday lows, while the Nasdaq 100 has moved lower after its fourteen-month high earlier in the week. Source: Bloomberg  Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 June 2023  Dow holds above 200-day MA The index saw a rally off the lows of yesterday’s session, defending the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) once again. However, the overall lower from the highs of May has yet to be disrupted, so further upside would be needed to suggest that a low has been created. A move above 33,230 would help to bolster such a view, and might then open the way to a rebound towards the mid-May high at 33,690. A reversal below the 200-day SMA opens the way to the low seen last week around 32580. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 edges lower A drop yesterday saw the index add to its decline from the one-year high hit on Tuesday. The upward move is still firmly intact, but it may be overextended in the short-term. Trendline support from late April could come into play closer to 14,000. A deeper retracement might develop with a move below 13,700. A renewed move higher could target the late March 2022 highs at 15,210, but a consolidation after the recent run higher remains a distinct possibility. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 hits trendline support Losses here accelerated to a fresh two-month low yesterday, although it has rallied off the lows of the session. The longer-term uptrend is still intact, though it has taken a knock since the April peak. A recovery above the 100-day SMA would help to reinforce the view that a higher low is in place, and that a move back to 7600 and potentially higher could be in play. The price has stabilised around another potential trendline support level from the December lows. Should this hold then the bullish view could receive additional support. Below this the March low at 6785 comes into view. Source: ProRealTime
    • Early Morning Call: British Land to leave FTSE 100, replaced by IMI Property developer British Land lost its position on the index, ending a 21-year run in the FTSE 100.  Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 June 2023  US debt ceiling The US debt ceiling bill passed its first hurdle last night in the US House of Representatives. A coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans overcame an opposition led by hardline conservatives. The House voted 314-117 to send the legislation to the Senate. Now the bill has to pass the Senate to be signed into law. China factory activity China's factory activity unexpectedly swung to growth in May, according to the Caixin survey, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises. This was a surprise after the official NBS survey showed yesterday that the manufacturing sector contracted faster than expected. The official NBS PMI survey covers large and state-owned companies. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. However, business confidence for the coming 12 months fell to a seven-month low. EU CPI In the eurozone, headline consumer price index (CPI) is expected to fall to 6.3% in May year-on-year (YoY), from 7% in April. Since its October 2022 peak, CPI has almost constantly declined, but remains more than three times above the European Central Bank (ECB) target. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, is forecast to decline for a second straight month to 5.5%, from 5.6% in April, which suggests that, now that last year's higher energy prices are being phased out, EU consumers face stickier than expected broad-based inflation. In the US, it was also a shorter week, as Americans celebrated Memorial Day on Monday, which means the ADP employment change will exceptionally take place this afternoon at 1.15pm. The markets expect 170,000 job creations in the US private sector, fewer than the 296,000 recorded the previous month. Also, at 3pm the market awaits ISM manufacturing PMI which should marginally fall to 47 in May, from 47.1 in April. This would mean a seventh straight month of contraction for the US manufacturing sector. FTSE reshuffle The quarterly reshuffle of the FTSE indices is upon us again and was confirmed last night. Property developer British Land lost its position on the index, ending a 21-year run in the FTSE 100. Its value has been hit by rising interest rates and the disruption caused by last autumn's mini budget. The swap brings engineering company IMI into the FTSE 100. The reshuffle will take effect from the start of trading on Monday 19 June. Earnings British boot maker Dr. Martens posted a drop in its annual profit. Profit before tax slumped 26% to £159.4 million dented by supply chain issues that ramped up operational costs. Revenue rose 10% to £1 billion. The group proposes a total dividend of 5.84 pence, up 6% on last year. In the US, Broadcom is due to report second quarter (Q2) numbers after the market close. The street anticipates earnings of $10.12 per share on revenue of $8.7Bln. After NVIDIA's earnings report last week and its market capitalisation reaching $1 trillion, investors now look at how every semiconductor maker could benefit from the AI boom. And according to some analysts, Broadcom is underestimated among its peers. Its networking segment is said to present significant opportunities in the AI space. Like other chip makers, Broadcom stock jumped in the past few days, taking it to an all-time high.   This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
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