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Market themes for 2020


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If you are a contrarian, what do you think of this?

"Another Hedge Fund Giant Bites the Macro Dust"

"In total, hedge fund assets have declined by $77 billion this year alone, the research firm estimates, leaving the industry as a whole managing a smidgen more than $3 trillion. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-21/louis-bacon-another-hedge-fund-giant-bites-the-macro-dust

 

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Fanciful but worthwhile article from Reuters ...

Quote

“in the 2020s it seems inevitable that a world of helicopter money awaits,” Deutsche Bank predicts.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-markets-outlook-2030-analysis/recession-robots-and-rockets-another-roaring-20s-for-world-markets-idUKKBN1YV0QZ

 

Universal basic income?  I think it's more likely people will be forced to work on precarious contracts for very low wages.  Especially now that Britain will become 'Singapore on steroids' and have a great bonfire of 'red tape' such as human rights, environmental protections and rights for workers (which do nothing but stop companies being efficient and profitable - bah!  Humbug!)

Edited by dmedin
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57 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Absolutely every year-end, without fail, you find some clown writing this type of scare story. Journos gotta write something I suppose. 

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But if you are bull this is great news😁

Its when the last bear give up and starts buying Tesla the end is near for the bull

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/stock-market-a-contrarian-buy-signal-has-been-triggered.html

https://www.isabelnet.com/bofaml-bull-bear-indicator-2/

 

 

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My prediction for DOW the year 2020 (for what its worth) 😎

I think we will see some profit taking in January (maybe 5% or so down to 27 000 ish?)

Then straight up to 30 000 in a couple of months (spring time?)

Then its time to start worry about the US election and take profit with VIX rising

If Trump wins we could get a relief rally and if some democrat wins then its time to prepare for a bearmarket in stocks

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/investors-see-sell-off-if-warren-wins-they-said-the-same-about-trump.html

" “they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president.” 

"

He also blasted what he views as her anti-capitalist positions, including a proposed wealth tax.

“I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. "

 

 

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2 hours ago, Kodiak said:

they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president.

This will help to remind people of the highly anti-democratic nature of the international financial system, and that the international financier can manufacture a crisis as quickly in America or Britain as he can in Venezuela.  Will be interesting to see how the 99.99% react when the 0.01% throw a temper tantrum when asked to pay a little bit more tax on their multi-billion fortunes.

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