WTI to hit $26?

[Guest ProTrader]

WTI is currently at $44 and I pedicted about a month ago that it will hit approx $26 before any major upside. I heard Golmans Sachs predicted $20. What do you think?

[FiringSquad13]

 I would not want to say one way or the other on this one.  There does seem to be a bit of a dual going on between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.  I think OPEC thought that the US would blink first but we that does not seem to be the case (yet).  Rig count is down and I expect to see it drop even further.  Production is due to drop whilst demand is expected to increase again next year.

 

I am still waiting for capitulation in the sector.  Yes there has been a reduction in drilling activity but I have yet to see any big names capitulate.

[jbtrader]

I believe we have seen the lows now in the Oil price.

 

I think we will see it consolidate around this level with previous lows being tested but holding.

 

 

[jbtrader]

Looking at last nights upward move in Oil I believe it is time to get long.

The only thing holding me back is the Fed decision tonight.

I will be looking at it closely on Friday following the Fed announcement.

[FiringSquad13]

 You are right.  WTI is more bullish than Brent at the moment.  The EIA data is crucial.  You are right that all eyes will be on the fed tonight.  Watch for the Baker Hughes rig count tomorrow.  Rigs were declining then he had a few weeks of an increase and now back to a few weeks of declining numbers.

[Guest ProTrader]

Interesting insights  and  I will be looking closely at WTI to see what it is doing! 

[jbtrader]

What has certainly caught my eye is the narrowing of the the spread between Crude and WTI.

I am betting it will widen a bit from here but I am keeping a close eye and will close the spread( long Brent/short WTI) if it narrows more than $1 more than the current $2.30 it is at now.

 

Any thoughts?

[jbtrader]

Closed out this trade on Friday.

The spread seems to have stalled at $3.50

 

What is everybody else trading atm?

[FiringSquad13]

 I'm really not sure about oil at the moment.  I suppose if you look long term then you have to be bullish but short term anything could happen.

 

Markets are all over the place today.  I was up on my GBP/USD trade but am now back down level.  I think key at the moment is to take profits and run!

[RichTheNewbie]

Be lucky to get $35 not $25 imo. Under $40 I think the buying will steadily increase.

[jbtrader]

Thanks Firing Squad.

I still want to be short JPY and EUR it's just a bit scary atm.

Took a small profit on GBPJPY long I had for a while . I want to be long but I see a lot more downside in the market short term.

The Yen seems to gain when the market gets hit, not that makes much fundamental sense. But it just keeps happening.

Will have to wait a bit for those trades.

I'm short the ASX200 and that's it atm.

Would like to get long WTI at some stage as I think its bottomed. Hard to do in this environment.

[Guest FoxTrader]

I agree Rich - but confidence seems to be returning? Today the spread between Brent and US is 6.47% - with Brent Crude at $ 49.23 - I would say confidence is growing?

 

Happy days

[Guest FoxTrader]

hi  - just for interest's sake - I am eating my words of September hey - the future and unpredictability.......oil is falling like a leaf - I am wondering what the impact of the Paris Climate talks will be on OIL?

 

Happy days

[RichTheNewbie]

Sorry, , slowest reply ever.

Obviously the trading became so disconnected from reality that it nearly got to those $25 levels. Although today is proving just how baseless the markets are at the moment. There's no good reason that justifies the size of move today in crude. API numbers built etc. One hint of QE and the markets go bananas!

There's some interesting articles on zerohedge regarding the US fed possibly intervening in the situation with US shalers.

Markets just seem to be a product of government-level meddling with currency and market wars at the moment. Compounded by mass shorting and then covering and going long.Crazy volatility.