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Stock markets continue to recover: APAC brief 17 May
Stock markets continue to recover: Global stocks have maintained their bounce. It’s looking more like a market that is searching for it’s next high now, as price action, from a technical perspective, suggests the recent wave-lower is over. Hence, from here, considering trade-war risks, and therefore anxiety in the market, remains high, the matter becomes whether stock indices are preparing to pop in a new higher-high, or whether what we will see is a new lower-high. The result of that simple binary will inform market participants what the broader trend is in the market: are we still trending higher, or are we seeing the start of a trend reversal?

The litmus test to come: This commentary pertains primarily to the S&P500, which has been the bellwether for global equities, recently. But it could equally be said of the ASX200, too, which demonstrated its resilience yesterday. Just sticking to the S&P500, the price set-up offers some potentially interesting insights about the world, in the weeks to come. Another high for US stocks is another record high and a clear continuation of that market’s bull run – defying, really, what is a deteriorating global backdrop. If this fails to occur, then talk will certainly emerge whether stocks are beginning a prolonged period of weakness, in line with clearly softer fundamentals.
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Post in Relative Rotational Graphs
Hi folks, you may have seen the 'announcement' on Community, but at 10:30 today we'll have Julius de Kempenear, founder of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) discussing GBP and how it is trading among its peers, as well as the future prospects of the FTSE 100. We'll be discussing the sectors on the move and how RRG’s try to identify a trend.
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Post in Cryptocurrencies - Asset Class
"I'm a Bitcoin/crypto skeptic, one of these "very people" you talk about" - where do you fall on the BTC spectrum? Join the debate!
Large FTSE & Wall St dividends tonight
We're expecting large dividends tonight. You can see the breakdown via the BBG screenshots attached. You can also check out other Index dividend adjustments on our weekly blog post.
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Post in Earnings Calendar
Earnings releases before US market open tomorrow. Check out these possible technical setups. What are your thoughts on these opinions?
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Trade wars escalate; political risks spread; don't trust volatility readings - DailyFX Key Themes
The world seemed to be on a very different path a week ago. Through the close on Friday, May 3rd, the rhetoric serving as forward guidance for the US-China trade war was clearly being directed to suggest the end to the economic conflict was at hand.

That took a dramatic turn two days later when US President Trump contradicted the leaks of an impending compromise and deal by stating clearly that the United States would raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports that were being levied 10 percent to an even more punitive 25 percent. True to his word, the President ratcheted up the trade war between the world’s two largest individual economies.
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Post in Earnings Calendar
Earnings this week include Tencent, Tilray and Nvidia. Get the most out of reporting season and discuss possible volatility and trade opportunities with like-minded traders.
Dividend Adjustments 13 May - 20 May
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 13 May 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
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The tariffs get hiked: APAC brief 13 May
The tariffs get hiked: The latest round of trade talks didn’t have the desired outcome. But nevertheless, the always forward-looking equity market closed last week on something of a high-note. It was a choppy day’s trade in Asia as the news filtered through that an agreement between the US and China in Washington wouldn’t be reached. Ultimately though, and just like the last time tariffs were hiked, financial markets handled the news with aplomb. The simplest explanation for why there wasn’t a huge reaction financial markets is roughly this: it “was buy the news and sell the fact” with markets having already discounted a trade-war escalation.

Markets (probably) saw it coming: It’s an unhelpful cliché, that one. However, market-moves, ex-post or not, are often chalked up to such a dynamic. It’s one of those helpful mental models to make sense of the madness of financial markets day-to-day. Regardless, it’s ostensibly what financial markets have done in this instance; giving solace to the bulls and bolstering risk-appetite. Fundamentally, the global equity map was a rich-shade of green after the end of Friday’s trade. The S&P500, for one, closed 0.37 per cent higher, CSI300 lifted a remarkable 3.63 per cent, and SPI Futures are indicating a 29 point jump this morning.
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More volatility looks likely - APAC brief 10 May
It’s been something of a wild ride in financial markets in the last few days – perhaps made worse by the relative calm that has preceded this latest outbreak of trade tensions. The S&P500 is demonstrating much greater volatility now, with the VIX still elevated and trading around the 19-mark. More than likely, this patch of turbulence isn’t behind market participants yet. Of course, the next 12-18 hours will be crucial, as the 12:01AM (ET) deadline to strike a trade-deal nears. The balance of risks, at a cursory glance, looks as though one won’t arrive, and that means tit-for-tat tariff increases from the US and China tonight.
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Trade-headlines: APAC brief 9 May
Trade-headlines determining sentiment once again: Judging by last night’s price action, trade for the remainder of the week is going to very “headline driven”. It’s an obscure way of saying a little bit nervous, a little bit jumpy, and probably a bit irrational. The reason for this judgement comes from market participants’ reaction to some pretty shallow, and conflicting news-stories overnight. As most traders have become used to when it comes to the subject, trade-negotiation news drove sentiment during US trade. And unlike the night prior, where traders became hung-up on bad-news, last night’s developments proved a dead-rubber for the stock market.

Trump administration claims a deal is afoot: In another episode of “will-they-or-won’t they”, probably more befitting of a 90s sit-com plot-line rather high-stakes global diplomacy, the leaks provided to the press from the Trump Administration were rather constructive, and far less belligerent than those received at the start of the week. The conversation began with a Tweet overnight from US President Trump, announcing to the market that the Chinese delegation “are coming to the US to make a deal”. Those comments were promptly backed up by Trump advisor Sarah Sanders who announced that the administration had received word from the Chinese that they were ready to make a deal.
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Post in Gold Heading For 1276.61
What are your thoughts on gold? Both Community members and IG TV have a bit of analysis for you to help with any trading decision you may make. Get involved and share your thoughts on Community!
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Stocks sell-off in Europe and the US: APAC brief 8 May
Stocks sell-off in Europe and the US: Global equities appear in pull-back mode. Ignoring Asia’s solid-enough day, European and US stocks have tumbled. The Euro Stoxx 50 shed 1.78 per cent overnight, while the FTSE100 dropped 1.63 per cent, and the S&P500 has given-up 1.65 per cent. It looks as though just when one assumed the latest trade-war developments lacked true bite, the conflicts potential consequences have reared their head in price action. Trade talks this week take-on an even greater significance now. Stamped with the knowledge of how the herd is responding to the latest break down in US-Sino relations, traders will be hyper-sensitive to good or bad trade-talk news.

Trade-war risk raises questions about fundamentals: It’s a part of why markets have behaved (quite) edgy overnight: trade-related news, and its all-important impact on market fundamentals, has proven had to quantify and predict. The last time trade-tensions were this high, commentators were wrangling with what the material impacts of the trade war would be. Would it derail global growth? How big of an impact would it have on inflation? What might it do to corporate earnings? There were few sufficient answers to these quandaries, and the trade-problem seemed to disappear as US-Sino relations improved last year. They’ll return to the fore now, with market participants no closer to and answer now than then.
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Soyabean Oil
"Soyabean Oil might be worth investigating, seems to be breaking through an old resistance level. In the longer term I am expecting the price to recover but right now the trend seems to be downwards." What are your thoughts? Is this a trading opportunity and how has Trumps tariff chat impacted markets?
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View 'Percentage' scale on IG charts
On the back of client feedback our charting team have just delivered a new feature on mobile and desktop. You can now quickly and easily see the percentage movement on any given period for any market.
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Post in Dr Copper shows the way for stocks
Dr Copper, so called because it's reputed the metal has a Ph.D. in economics because of it's ability to predict turnings points in the global economy, is back under the microscope for one Community member: "Been a while since I looked at Copper.  The consolidation I was looking at back in November 2018 didn't spark a rally until there was a fresh lower low but since then the rally I was looking for has occurred and interestingly it has done so in a rising triangle formation that is consistent with a Pennant."
Post in Indices
As the trading week in the UK starts up again after a three day weekend and Bank Holiday on Monday, the markets have seen relative volatility (and potentially opportunity). Get up to date with the well update Community thread and continue the discussion with your own thoughts, opinions and questions:

"Another dip down after US market close on basically what was confirmation of Trump's weekend tweets of a tariff increase being imposed on Friday. This is inline with Bannons comments in the interview posted in this thread last week, and is said to be a response to China attempting to renegotiate past agreements."
US trade showed greater equanimity: APAC brief - 7 May
A rocky start to the week: The first day of the week’s trade can be reasonably said to have ended – and it was a tumultuous one. US President Trump’s tweeting of new tariffs on the Chinese economy sparked a level volatility not experienced in the financial markets for several months. It certainly had the effect of waking some (perhaps) complacent market participants from their slumber. And although the panic has abated somewhat, sentiment has been dented again this morning, after an announcement from Robert Lighthizer this morning that US tariffs on Chinese goods will be increased this coming Friday.

US trade showed greater equanimity: Wall Street was closed when this information became public. However, during US trade, the S&P500 progressively climbed over night, after gapping considerably at its open. On any other day, one would suggest that the action seen in US equities overnight was negative: the S&P500 is down just shy of 0.5 per cent, with market breadth a lowly 26 per cent. But considering the circumstances, along with lead handed to US traders from Europe and Asia, the price action ought to be viewed with a silver lining. The buyers in the market still seem to outweigh the sellers in the big picture, for now.

Volatility is re-awoken: Volatility has spiked and remains elevated globally. That dynamic may linger for some time yet, too. Arguably, measures of volatility were mispriced anyway, with the VIX trading as low as 11 up until only recently. It’s at 15 now, after lifting above 19 at stages yesterday. The dust will settle this morning in Asia’s trade, despite this morning’s new trade-war developments. So much is being portrayed in futures markets: our ASX200 for one, after shedding 0.82 per cent in rapid fashion in yesterday’s trade, will regain 25 points at today’s open, according to the SPI Futures contract.
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A good end to last week; a rough start to this week: APAC brief 6 May
A good end to last week; a rough start to this week: Markets are going to be digesting some conflicting information to begin the week. Wall Street ended last week’s trading with a boost, following another economic release, this time Non-Farm Payrolls figures, that could reasonably be dubbed “goldilocks”. However, the weekend proved to bring with it some tumult that market participants thought they’d left behind in 2018: an agitated North Korea has gone back to firing missiles into the ocean, and there’s been threats of higher tariffs from the US President on the Chinese economy. So, although the economic data delivered a small-dose of positivity, old risks have resurfaced to renew anxiety about the immediate future.

US NFPs another “just right” print: Beginning with the good news for risk-assets: US Non-Farm Payrolls figures were met with a swell of bullishness on Friday night. After Thursday morning’s “less-dovish-than-expected” US Federal Reserve meeting, at which that central bank emphasized its belief disinflationary pressure within the US economy were “transitory”, traders had their focus-fixed on NFPs for signs that this bias may be true.
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Post in Brent Crude is following my roadmap
"Brent still going according to technical set ups but a pivotal point is coming up, the Daily chart supporting trend-line off the late 2018 turn and rally.  A breakout of this would indicate a trend change and herald a Bear market, which could run for some time to complete the full journey from peak of Oil to bottom of the market...  However my technical set up suggest another leg up is the more likely scenario this time so I will be watching for a bounce once the A-B-C retrace is completed."
Gold Silver Ratio
"Is there a possibility to view the Gold/Silver ratio in a live chart format?" See how to set up a differential trade by buying one and selling the other with IG.
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Stocks fall as markets adjust US rate expectations: APAC brief 3 May
Stocks fall as markets adjust US rate expectations: Traders have gone about repricing a world without the same imminence of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve overnight. US Treasury yields have climbed markedly, during the North American session in particular, dragging with it stock indices. The S&P500 has traded 0.21 per cent lower, as traders apparently take their profits and adjusted their forecasts in line with the new dynamic. The action seen in the last 48 hours has given undue merit to the “sell-in-May-and-go-away” maxim; but however shallow the saying, profit-taking from all-time highs, and at that, overbought levels, has (ostensibly) proven the rational course of action for market participants right now.

The necessity of a pullback in US stocks: It’d be of little surprise to any clued-up investor or trader as to why the markets’ pull back has transpired. Leading into yesterday’s US Fed meeting, the risk was widely called, and very well telegraphed by pundits. There was a sense US interest rate expectations weren’t on par with reality. But the short-term vagaries of market psychology drove rational folk to buy into the market, chasing momentum, after the S&P500 hit its all-time highs. The giddiness is over now, and what is being witnessed is a sensible recalibrating of market participants’ positions, more aligned with current market fundamentals.
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A night loaded with information: APAC brief - 2 May
The pointy end of the week is under-way, and if only relatively speaking, markets are moving on the back of several key stories. Naturally, the centrepiece of this is Wall Street; and there’s been a timely mix of corporate data, economic developments, central bank meetings, and politics for market participants to digest. The intra-day battle of these narratives has caused some modest, but interesting enough, price action in financial markets overnight; with Apple’s earnings beat, weak ISM Manufacturing PMI data, a more neutral US Federal Reserve, and sputtering trade-talks between the US and China combining to twist market sentiment in interesting ways.
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APAC brief - 1 May
A flat, but generally positive, night’s trade: Wall Street closed flat to slightly higher overnight, in a day of soft activity that might well be chalked up to the numerous event risks awaiting markets in the second half of the week. The key stories in European and North American trade centred around European growth data; along with the ongoing US earnings season. And on balance, belying the lukewarm day in global stocks, the news was relatively positive. European economic data broadly beat expectations, resulting in a lift in the Euro and European yields; and after the US close, Apple Inc reported, and is trading higher in post-market trade.

Chinese economic numbers disappoint: The big news in the Asia region yesterday was China’s highly anticipated manufacturing PMI numbers. Recall: it’s been this data-point that has been the centre of fears about China’s economic slowdown – and has been used as the barometer for policy makers success in re-stimulating the Middle Kingdom’s economic activity. For one, yesterday’s print was underwhelming. Anticipated to print at 50.5, it came in at 50.1, stoking concerns that manufacturing in China could be slipping back towards a “contractionary” condition – that is, a print below 50, and forecasts a potential slip in activity in the broader Chinese economy.
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Fed rate decision; trade wars versus earnings; Dollar, Nasdaq and Oil breaks - DailyFX Key Themes
There is a lot of high-profile event risk – both data and events – on the docket this week. The distinction of importance for these potential catalysts is defined by their capacity to tap into more systemic fundamental themes.
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