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GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
GBP/USD is holding its ground around the 1.36 level as a 15 basis point increase in UK Bank Rate by the year-end edges closer.
The latest UK employment report was broadly positive but the background remains unhelpful as higher energy prices continue to benefit haven assets like USD.

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EUR/GBP Price, Chart, and Analysis:
Interest rate hike bets increase after central bank comments.
EUR/GBP nearing a fresh 18-month low.

The week begins quietly with a US market holiday, but it rapidly heats up with US earnings season upon us once more. US banks and a host of UK trading statements dominate the week. Along with this, we have UK employment data, Chinese and US inflation data and the latest set of Fed minutes.

Lumber spike highlights potential for a bullish resurgence, with seasonality pointing towards a strong Q4.

USD, NFP Price Analysis & News:
US NFP 194k vs 500k, Prior Reading Revised Higher.
Unemployment Rate Drop Overstated by Labour Force Dip.
Fed Tapering a Done Deal.

US DOLLAR PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS:
US 10-year bond yields print a fresh four-month high.
US Jobs Report a make-or-break for further US dollar strength.

GOLD, XAU/USD, TREASURY YIELDS, NON-FARM PAYROLLS, US DOLLAR, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices fall, Treasury yields rise on interim US debt ceiling solution.
An upbeat non-farm payrolls report risks accelerating XAU/USD losses.
Falling Wedge breakout losing momentum, retail traders reduce short bets.

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11th October 2021. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.


NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a <br style="background-color:#ffffff; color:#262629; font-size:14px; text-align:center">cash neutral adjustment on your account.

                                                                                           

Special Dividends

Index

Bloomberg Code

Effective Date

Summary

Dividend Amount

RTY

CMO US

12/10/2021

Special Div

TBD

SPX

CTRA US

13/10/2021

Special Div

0.5

 

How do dividend adjustments work? 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 Outlook.
China’s So-Called Lehman Moment.
Global Tapering Underway.

FTSE 100 PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
Several factors are lifting stock markets near term, including hopes that an agreement on the US debt ceiling is close, Putin’s offer to stabilize the world energy markets and a potential meeting of Xi and Biden.
However, worries about China persist, and this rally may just reflect some short-covering and dip-buying before stock markets head lower again.

U.S. DOLLAR ANALYSIS:
568K ADP print favors further dollar gains.
Higher yields giving impetus to further dollar upside.
Focus shifts to Friday’s NFP data.

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Manufacturing under pressure, with the DAX and EUR/GBP looking likely to underperform going forward.

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
After its decent rally since the end of last month, GBP/USD now looks likely to fall back, although it could remain around the 1.36 level for a while first.
Talk in the UK media of stagflation persists, and a dire set of new car registration figures will do nothing to counter that narrative.

US DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, AUD/USD, RBA, PBOC, RBNZ - TALKING POINTS:
USD rallied as equities came under pressure amid a tech rout.
RBA delivered as expected, RBNZ ahead may not be clear cut.
Energy in hot demand. What does it mean for USD from here?

In this article we break down the OPEC+ decision to limit output increases and look at how crude prices are reacting to the news.

As investors head into the fourth quarter, the VIX Volatility Index - often referred to as the market’s ‘fear gauge’ - is in an uptrend. In September, US benchmark stock indices saw some of the worst monthly performance since March 2020. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished the third quarter little changed. More importantly, they trimmed most of their gains. The Dow Jones declined.

TALKING POINTS:
GBP/USD faces strong resistance just below 1.36
With a light economic calendar this week, focus will be on NF data out on Friday.

CANADIAN DOLLAR, USD/CAD, OPEC+, EVERGRANDE - TALKING POINTS:
The Canadian Dollar has been supported by higher commodity prices.
APAC equities, except ASX 200, went lower as Evergrande risks swirl.
High energy prices boost commodity currencies. Will USD/CAD go lower?

The week ahead brings a continued focus on energy markets, with OPEC kick starting proceedings on Monday. Central banks come back into focus, with the RBA rate decision on Tuesday. The focus then shifts towards the US, with employment data starting on Wednesday and culminating with Friday’s jobs report release. On the corporate front, Tesco and Levi Strauss provide two particular areas of focus given the potential for commentary around logistics and rising input prices.

KEY TALKING POINTS:
PCE, consumer confidence, and ISM data may give insight into USD positioning ahead of NFP next week.
GBP/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/USD looking vulnerable despite small bounce.

US Dollar, USD/JPY, S&P 500 Analysis and News:
USD/JPY Slides Post Rebalancing.
Sentiment in Equity Space Deteriorates.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, COAL, CHINA, OPEC+ - TALKING POINTS:
The Australian Dollar had some yield support early, but not enough.
China cracks the whip on their energy producers, adding to demand.
High commodity prices, positive yields, what will break AUD/USD?

BRITISH POUND, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD - TALKING POINTS:
GBP/USD volatility took off as sterling plunged and now scopes new lows.
The move lower in GBP/CAD might have momentum but wider range is intact.
GBP/NZD has avoided Sterling weakness of late and consolidated. Will it last?