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The biggest day of the (economic) year - APAC brief - 3 Apr
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The biggest day of the (economic) year: The Australian economy garnered significant attention yesterday. Arguably, it was the biggest day on the economic calendar we’ll see this year. Insights into both the future of monetary and fiscal policy don’t often come on the same day.
But yesterday it did: the RBA delivered their monthly decision on Australian interest rates; and the Federal Government handed down its latest budget. The price action in financial markets has thus far been limited – though, granted, we wait for the ASX to open this morning to witness the stock market response to the budget. At least from a purely intellectual standpoint though, both events have given market-buffs enough to chew on, and potentially frame future trading opportunities.
But yesterday it did: the RBA delivered their monthly decision on Australian interest rates; and the Federal Government handed down its latest budget. The price action in financial markets has thus far been limited – though, granted, we wait for the ASX to open this morning to witness the stock market response to the budget. At least from a purely intellectual standpoint though, both events have given market-buffs enough to chew on, and potentially frame future trading opportunities.
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Golden Cross v Inverted Yield Curve
Caseynotes posted a topic in General Trading Strategy Discussion,
The battle of fundamental Vs technical continues: "Many have been pointing out the Golden Cross in the S&P over the last few days which is of course bullish while at the same time the recent inverted yield curve possibly predicts recession. You wait ages for a signal then two come at once but in opposite directions."
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Lyft Fails to Lift-off on Second Day of Trading - EMEA Brief 02 Apr
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Lyft, the most recent high profile IPO, shares have seen huge trading activity over the first two days of trading as over 41.5 million shares were traded, well over the 32.5 million offered in the IPO. However, the ride-hailing company saw it's shares slump 12% on its second day of trading down to $69.01, below the official IPO price of $72. The downturn comes after the stock rallied to a high of $88.60 on Friday.
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APAC brief 2 April
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Today was a good day: The term risk-on can be a little overused in financial markets at times. When short-on-time, and confronted with something complex, suggesting it’s been a “risk-on” or “risk-day” is a simple way to say market participants feel pretty good. At the risk of oversimplifying: the first day of the new quarter was certainly a “risk-on” day. It’s likely given the context of yesterday’s trade that makes this so. Concerns about a global economic slowdown have been their most sensitive in years. So: to receive a handful of better than expected economic data, such as we did in the last 24 hours, it makes things in the whole appear much better than if they were to be judged just in the particular.
The story has changed (for now): It’s probably a part of that compulsion market participants have – pundits especially – to infer a trend from a tiny-bit of information. The justification is reasonable enough: most people understand the world through stories, rather than hard-data and analysis. To take a piece of information, infer a trend, and then tell a story with it is far more comprehensive (and saleable) than just enumerating some soul-less facts. It’s with this (partial) assumption in mind, the first day of the new week, month and quarter can be viewed. For all its intricacies, complexities and ambiguities, it was the most “risk-on” day we’ve seen in a short-while; and the hope is now that this is the beginning of a significant reversal in trend.
The story has changed (for now): It’s probably a part of that compulsion market participants have – pundits especially – to infer a trend from a tiny-bit of information. The justification is reasonable enough: most people understand the world through stories, rather than hard-data and analysis. To take a piece of information, infer a trend, and then tell a story with it is far more comprehensive (and saleable) than just enumerating some soul-less facts. It’s with this (partial) assumption in mind, the first day of the new week, month and quarter can be viewed. For all its intricacies, complexities and ambiguities, it was the most “risk-on” day we’ve seen in a short-while; and the hope is now that this is the beginning of a significant reversal in trend.
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Post in Indices
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
"As mentioned in the EMEA brief " S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 2,834.40 - posting its best performing quarter since 1998 as it rose 13.1% for the period." Yet SSI for S&P is 69% short, as it has been for all of March (at least, see previous posts)."
Post in Brent Crude is following my roadmap
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
Where is oil going? "A break of the narrowing channel will seal it for me but there are better opportunities around if stock resume a bear move and EURUSD decides on a rally. That said if Oil is a first mover I might get in..."
China's Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations - EMEA Brief 01 Apr
JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Confidence returns to the markets as Asian stocks rallied on Monday over positive Chinese factory gauges and signs of progress in US-China trade talks boosted investor sentiment. Manufacturing activity in China expanded at its fastest pace in eight months in March, reading 50.8 and beating analysts' expectations of 49.9.
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Post in Sugar - London No.5 - Potential Trade Idea - TrendFollower and Jim Rodgers
TrendFollower posted a post in a topic,
Join the conversation: "I wonder if there are any 'hybrid value speculators' on the IG Community who would consider going long on Sugar London No.5 around now?" What are your thoughts?
Trade Talks Restart - EMEA Brief 29 Mar
JoeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
US-China trade talks have restarted in Beijing as U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday that he had a "productive working dinner" the previous night. Investors are hopeful that progress will be made to resolve the bitter trade dispute between the two largest global economies, amid growing concern of a slowing economy as the bond market signals a possible incoming recession.
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APAC brief - 21 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Relief-on? It’s a trifle difficult to describe last night’s trade simply. On the surface, risk assets are being reasonably well supported, and there are a few signals suggesting market participants are in a slightly more bullish state of mind. Rather than “risk-on” however, one might describe the last 12 hours in markets as “relief-on”. This is mostly due to the fact that, at least for now, the global bond market rally has stalled. Markets had worked themselves into a frenzy this week, fretting over the meaning and implications of the precipitous run-higher in safe-haven government debt. It sparked all sorts of repositioning and knee-**** activity in markets, pulling price action around its massive gravity, and inspiring a general anti-risk sentiment.
It’s been the speed, not the direction: The shocking part of the bond market rally – and let’s recall, for the many folk out there who aren’t bond-market buffs, that when bond prices rally, bond yields ¬fall – is not that it is necessarily happening at all. Instead, it is a matter of how quickly it is all happening, and what this rapid shift in momentum means all-in-all. The more benign reasoning is that it’s a basic repositioning, accelerated by technical factors, in response to the dovish turn central bankers have adopted lately across the globe. The direr interpretation, however, was that the swift shift in bond pricing signalled a market pricing in a major economic slow-down, maybe even a recession, in the global economy.
Markets getting ahead of themselves: Both narratives are interrelated and true to some extent. Interest rates expectations have been sliced-down very quickly recently, courtesy of course, to a marked deterioration in global economic growth conditions. But these things take time: hence, the move in bonds seem disproportionate. This isn’t an invitation to rejoice, by any means. Risks in the long term to the global economic outlook are ample, especially as it relates to Chinese and European growth. But to throw in the towel now on global macro-economic outlook would be premature, and potentially wasteful: the actions of central banks are skewing risk-reward in favour of the risk takers, meaning taking a long bias on certain equity indices ought not to be discounted.
The risk-reward balance: A skerrick of this view manifested in market activity last night. Wall Street is up and trending higher, just on an intraday basis, into the close. Most certainly, the fall in bond yields, driven by the prospect of looser monetary policy across the globe, is attracting flows into stocks. It's a continuation of the perennial battle in financial markets: the desire to take risk when financial conditions dictate its attractive to do so, versus the desire to preserve capital when the economic growth environment is degrading. Policy makers are fighting hard to engender a confidence that the former can be trusted and will lead to an improvement in the latter.
It’s been the speed, not the direction: The shocking part of the bond market rally – and let’s recall, for the many folk out there who aren’t bond-market buffs, that when bond prices rally, bond yields ¬fall – is not that it is necessarily happening at all. Instead, it is a matter of how quickly it is all happening, and what this rapid shift in momentum means all-in-all. The more benign reasoning is that it’s a basic repositioning, accelerated by technical factors, in response to the dovish turn central bankers have adopted lately across the globe. The direr interpretation, however, was that the swift shift in bond pricing signalled a market pricing in a major economic slow-down, maybe even a recession, in the global economy.
Markets getting ahead of themselves: Both narratives are interrelated and true to some extent. Interest rates expectations have been sliced-down very quickly recently, courtesy of course, to a marked deterioration in global economic growth conditions. But these things take time: hence, the move in bonds seem disproportionate. This isn’t an invitation to rejoice, by any means. Risks in the long term to the global economic outlook are ample, especially as it relates to Chinese and European growth. But to throw in the towel now on global macro-economic outlook would be premature, and potentially wasteful: the actions of central banks are skewing risk-reward in favour of the risk takers, meaning taking a long bias on certain equity indices ought not to be discounted.
The risk-reward balance: A skerrick of this view manifested in market activity last night. Wall Street is up and trending higher, just on an intraday basis, into the close. Most certainly, the fall in bond yields, driven by the prospect of looser monetary policy across the globe, is attracting flows into stocks. It's a continuation of the perennial battle in financial markets: the desire to take risk when financial conditions dictate its attractive to do so, versus the desire to preserve capital when the economic growth environment is degrading. Policy makers are fighting hard to engender a confidence that the former can be trusted and will lead to an improvement in the latter.
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Turkish lira - surge in swap rates & the impact for overnight funding
JamesIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The cost of borrowing Lira overnight on the swap market exceeded 1000% because local banks are under pressure to not provide liquidity to foreign investors who want to bet against the currency.
Please ensure that you are happy with your positions in TRY going into 10pm GMT, and please remember that swap points are unstable.
Please ensure that you are happy with your positions in TRY going into 10pm GMT, and please remember that swap points are unstable.
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Capital Drilling Ltd - small cap mining - chairman interview
JamesIG posted a topic in Shares and ETFs,
On the back of a recent client request our IGTV team sat down with Jamie Boyton, chairman of Capital Drilling, to discuss recent earnings and their longer term business plans, dividend strategy, and future outlooks. Jeremy also takes a look at recent price action and any potential trading opportunity, whether you think that's a buy, hold, or sell.
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The Turkish lira squeeze - EMEA Brief 28 Mar
IG-Andi posted a blog entry in Market News,
Gold prices edged higher after falling on Wednesday. Globally declining treasury yields could increase demand for the yellow-metal if a stock rout were to take place.
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APAC brief 28 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The see-sawing market: The one-day-up, one-day-down pattern of trade on Wall Street continues. It’s playing-out so elegantly, it’s almost absurd. Yesterday was a “down” day, as market participants evacuated equity markets to seek shelter in safe-haven government bonds. In contrast to the day prior, breadth has been universally low, with practically every sector in the S&P500 trading lower. The same simple binary that’s driven market activity for weeks is behind this dynamic: a competition between fears regarding the slowing global growth outlook, and the appeal of risk taking in a financial market environment plagues by tumbling yields. The pattern is showing few signs of abating and speaks of a market that is consolidating before a clearer-cut direction is formed.
Asia set for mixed trade again: Wall Street’s lead is manifesting as a mixed-picture for Asian markets today, according to futures. Provided this materializes, it will be an extension of the region’s equities own theme. Yesterday’s trade was tepid for Asia too, resulting in an ultimately flat day for the ASX200, a solid day for Chinese and Hong Kong markets, and soft day for the Nikkei. As it presently trades, SPI Futures are suggesting that the ASX200 will open slightly lower this morning, if not flat; as will the Hang Seng and Nikkei; but the CSI300 ought to open a touch higher – though this is based on a future’s price that reflects price action from yesterday evening’s trade.
Asia set for mixed trade again: Wall Street’s lead is manifesting as a mixed-picture for Asian markets today, according to futures. Provided this materializes, it will be an extension of the region’s equities own theme. Yesterday’s trade was tepid for Asia too, resulting in an ultimately flat day for the ASX200, a solid day for Chinese and Hong Kong markets, and soft day for the Nikkei. As it presently trades, SPI Futures are suggesting that the ASX200 will open slightly lower this morning, if not flat; as will the Hang Seng and Nikkei; but the CSI300 ought to open a touch higher – though this is based on a future’s price that reflects price action from yesterday evening’s trade.
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EU announces new copyright laws that could affect tech giants - EMEA Brief 27 March
DanielaIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A three-year legal battle has concluded with the EU enforcing stricter copyright laws that could affect the business models of tech giants like Google and Facebook. The new reform plans to protect artists and publishers whose work has been widely spread on the internet, by making the tech firms responsible for detecting and removing content that infringes copyright law. Google will has been very critical about the new reform saying that it will restrict freedom of expression, as its video-sharing platform YouTube will be one of the most affected by these changes. Google shares were down 0.63% at the close of Tuesday after the new laws were announced.
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APAC brief - 27 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Broad-based based bounce in stocks: It was a buy the dip day yesterday, judging by price action in global risk-assets. As has been the theme this week, there wasn’t any meaningful macro-news to change market participants behavior. So: an explanation for the (almost) universally solid day for global equities ought to be chalked-up to internal market mechanics. What this may imply for the longer run is a touch obscure. This market is trading much in the way a plane rights-itself after some brief, but heavy turbulence. Some rough times must surely lie ahead once again, if not for the simple matter that fundamentals haven’t changed. Market participants will therefore remain glued to any developments that may reveal new truths about global growth.
Very little “new” news: There weren’t any such stories out last night. Outside the echoes of last week’s dovish Fed-tilt, European growth concerns, and talk of inverted yield curves, voices portending doom in financial markets were apparently much quieter. Ever the experts in hindsight, the collective wisdom of market participants seemed more interested in rationalizing away their previously held fears. This could be justified, and at that, telling in and of itself: traders are searching for reason to keep taking risks, and maintaining a bullish temperament. It certainly showed; not just in equities, but other asset classes. Bond yields climbed, at least momentarily ending their rout, and growth-proxy currencies lifted as currency traders sold-out of the popular safe havens.
Very little “new” news: There weren’t any such stories out last night. Outside the echoes of last week’s dovish Fed-tilt, European growth concerns, and talk of inverted yield curves, voices portending doom in financial markets were apparently much quieter. Ever the experts in hindsight, the collective wisdom of market participants seemed more interested in rationalizing away their previously held fears. This could be justified, and at that, telling in and of itself: traders are searching for reason to keep taking risks, and maintaining a bullish temperament. It certainly showed; not just in equities, but other asset classes. Bond yields climbed, at least momentarily ending their rout, and growth-proxy currencies lifted as currency traders sold-out of the popular safe havens.
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Post-Fed; yield curve inversion; another reset in the Brexit timeline - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
"Except for fixed income traders and economists, the yield curve is rarely mentioned in polite trader conversation or in the mainstream financial media. Its implications are too wonky for most as it can be difficult to draw impact to the average traders’ portfolio and given the considerable time lag between its movements and capital market response.
Yet, when it comes to its most popular signal – that of a possible recession signal – the structure of duration risk suddenly becomes as commonplace a talking point as NFPs."
Yet, when it comes to its most popular signal – that of a possible recession signal – the structure of duration risk suddenly becomes as commonplace a talking point as NFPs."
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MPs Vote to Take Control of Brexit Process - EMEA Brief 26 Mar
IGAaronC posted a blog entry in Market News,
In the latest round of voting in the House of Commons, MP’s voted to set up a series of votes on Wednesday to see which approach to Brexit has the most support. Later, am amendment on whether another extension could be requested if no progress is made on a deal by the 5th of April.
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APAC brief 26 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Markets trade-off Friday overhang: Markets traded in something of a vacuum Monday. The themes driving price action were more-or-less those that had determined activity to end last week. The effects of this were pronounced in the Asian session, but much less so in Europe and North America. It stands to reason: Asian markets were still to digest Friday night’s abysmal European PMI figures. That data’s impact is still rippling through the market. Anxieties about global growth and the likelihood for a global recession is the topic of the day. But the material losses stemming from these concerns, though broad-based, have been limited overnight. Wall Street is down but bouncing; European stocks were down; while futures contracts for Asian markets are mixed.
Risk-off generally prevails: Fear is demonstrably higher. On balance, safety was generally sought on Monday. In something of a bittersweet development, the VIX has pulled of its lows, to trade above 16, as traders reprice volatility and risk. In the broader G10 currency complex, the Yen has been led the pack, though its rally has steadied, and it is currently shuffling around the 110-handle. Investment grade credit spreads have widened notably, as speculation about slower growth has fanned-fear regarding the massive US corporate debt burden. And finally, the overnight-drop in the US Dollar, combined with the ubiquitous disappearance of safe-yielding assets the world-over, has pushed gold prices to $US1322 per ounce.
Risk-off generally prevails: Fear is demonstrably higher. On balance, safety was generally sought on Monday. In something of a bittersweet development, the VIX has pulled of its lows, to trade above 16, as traders reprice volatility and risk. In the broader G10 currency complex, the Yen has been led the pack, though its rally has steadied, and it is currently shuffling around the 110-handle. Investment grade credit spreads have widened notably, as speculation about slower growth has fanned-fear regarding the massive US corporate debt burden. And finally, the overnight-drop in the US Dollar, combined with the ubiquitous disappearance of safe-yielding assets the world-over, has pushed gold prices to $US1322 per ounce.
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Post in US Indices Short - the big one!
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
Technical trader? Get an insight into one Community members opinion and submit your own thoughts to continue the conversation.:
"Interesting week of price action. SP500 and Nasdaq make higher highs to match the previous level of the Dow (Fib 88% zone) but the Dow itself makes a lower high. FTSE100 & Dax make higher highs too but Nikkei and Russell 2000 have tracked similarly to the Dow."
"Interesting week of price action. SP500 and Nasdaq make higher highs to match the previous level of the Dow (Fib 88% zone) but the Dow itself makes a lower high. FTSE100 & Dax make higher highs too but Nikkei and Russell 2000 have tracked similarly to the Dow."
Post in Indices
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
Kick off your trading day by getting a good understanding and update of what happened last week, with comentry on Community from other members:
"Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs. Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, and by mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend."
"Weekly charts and an interesting Friday. Red weekly bars all round, it was all going good til Friday though Dax started heading down on Thursday with very poor PMIs. Then on Friday US PMIs were down on expectations though still in positive territory, and by mid-day the treasury yield curve inversion breaking news and the selling continued as longs built up over the week were exited before the weekend."
Asian Equities Sell-Off; Oil Plunges - EMEA Brief 25 Mar
GeorgeIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Shares in Asia fell more than 2% amid growing fears that a recession is on the horizon, Japan's Topix was impacted the most as the index dropped 2.5% at the close. The Hang Seng, ASX 200 and the Shanghai Composite followed and all fell by at least 1%.
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Dividend Adjustments 25 Mar - 1 Apr
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25 Mar 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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APAC brief 25 Mar
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Global growth the primary issue right now: The monumental tug-of war between improving financial conditions and deteriorating economic conditions continues. On Friday, it was the latter that took home the points, if only this time around. Both variables truly sit diametrically opposed, and as far as market participants are concerned, which force will prevail remains speculative. It’s written into the mixed-messages markets have been signalling in the last several weeks. It must be said, with the end of last week’s trade, such discrepancies are becoming less pronounced. The dominating concern pertains to the outlook for global economic growth. The world economy’s health is looking worse than previously imagined, and the re-introduction of dovish rhetoric from global central bankers is proving an inadequate remedy.
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Displaying markets on screen from two accounts
D600 posted a question in IG Technical Support - Platform and App Help,
Get your questions answered on Community: "How can I display markets from two different accounts at the same time on screen?" Search the forum, or put your questions to other Community users and IG Community Moderators.
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