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FOMC 19th June 2019 - 1900 BST - watch IGTV Live
Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG posted a topic in Indices and Macro Events,
Slim but notable chance of a rate cut by the Fed this evening (1900 UK time).
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Post in Is spread betting for fools?
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
What type of trader will I be? Swing, trend trader, trend follower, day trader, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, CAN SLIM, option trader, another, or a combination? 20 Questions For Help Building a Trading Plan.
APAC brief - 17 June
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
The climax of last week’s trade was Friday night’s US Retail Sales data release. As is well known, sentiment in the market centers around concern for the state of the global economy. As the biggest component, of the world’s biggest economy, US consumption data was hotly awaited to test the thesis that the global economy is winding down for another cycle. As it turns out: right now, those fears are very slightly exaggerated, if the US Retail Sales data was anything to go-by. Core Retail Sales came-in bang on expectations at 0.5%, taking the annualized figure to around 3.2 per cent.
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Dividend Adjustments 17 June - 24 June
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Fed rescue expectations; trade wars; Euro stability - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
With the US Dollar losing viability owing to its pursuit of trade wars that undermine global stability, the Pound plagued by a directionless Brexit and the Japanese Yen lost in a deflationary quagmire, there is an acute need for a stable benchmark currency. Despite its many fundamental shortcomings, the Euro showed itself willing to offer an outlet for liquidity over the past few years as the recovery from the region’s sovereign debt crisis between 2009 and 2012 seemed to offer a sense of hard-fought stability that was prized above all else.
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Dividend Adjustments 10 June - 17 June
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 10 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Post in Stock market turning points - are we there yet?
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
Start your week with an overview of the markets from one of our Community members.
Aussie growth underwhelms: APAC brief 7 June
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Aussie growth underwhelms: Australian GDP data was the highlight of the economic calendar yesterday. All-in-all, the data was of minimal impact, though it did for make big headlines: the growth rate came-in at 1.8 per cent on an annualized basis, as expected – the slowest rate of economic growth since the GFC. A poor print undoubtedly, but one that had been priced into the market well in advance. Hence, markets were little moved upon the release. The ASX200 hardly budged. The Australian Dollar lifted very slightly, and temporarily tussled with the 0.7000 handle. And interest rate markets increased very marginally the probabilities of more RBA cuts by year-end.
Where the weakness is: The data was more of interest for economists and other pedants. And there were some interesting takeaways from the release. As is well known, one of the major headwinds for domestic growth is private consumption, which continued to show signs of slowing. The savings ratio also lifted, as consumers seemingly opted to defer spending and pocket their modest pay rises. More than just demand side concerns, there was also a noteworthy drag on growth from the supply side. Dwelling investment also contracted in the last year, in line with what has been a well-publicised slowdown in construction activity, and sustained falls in the property market.
Where growth is coming from: The GDP data wasn’t without its silver linings, of course. A series of factors leapt-out as the primary drivers of growth in the Australian economy in the past 12 months. It was largely improvements in the nation’s terms of trade, courtesy of the major multi-month rally in iron ore, followed by big government spending measures, mostly in form of the NDIS and other health services, that proved the greatest contributors to growth. Though welcomed, to be sure, the areas of Australia’s economy sustaining growth speaks of a country currently working below its capacity, and in need of some sort of a boost.
Where the weakness is: The data was more of interest for economists and other pedants. And there were some interesting takeaways from the release. As is well known, one of the major headwinds for domestic growth is private consumption, which continued to show signs of slowing. The savings ratio also lifted, as consumers seemingly opted to defer spending and pocket their modest pay rises. More than just demand side concerns, there was also a noteworthy drag on growth from the supply side. Dwelling investment also contracted in the last year, in line with what has been a well-publicised slowdown in construction activity, and sustained falls in the property market.
Where growth is coming from: The GDP data wasn’t without its silver linings, of course. A series of factors leapt-out as the primary drivers of growth in the Australian economy in the past 12 months. It was largely improvements in the nation’s terms of trade, courtesy of the major multi-month rally in iron ore, followed by big government spending measures, mostly in form of the NDIS and other health services, that proved the greatest contributors to growth. Though welcomed, to be sure, the areas of Australia’s economy sustaining growth speaks of a country currently working below its capacity, and in need of some sort of a boost.
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Chart on mobile Android app not working
Kkla posted a question in IG Technical Support - Platform and App Help,
A recent Google Chrome roll out has had a negative impact on the IG android app. This recent change has meant that charts, among other things, are not loading. Please check the following thread for more info.
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Trade wars grow more global; Dollar reserve risks; a host of fundamental themes - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
In a surprise move, the United States is now fighting a full trade war on two fronts as of this past week. With the path to a US-China compromise still lacking any clear hand holds, US President Donald Trump announced a wholly unexpected economic move against neighbor Mexico this past Thursday evening. According to his tweet, the United States would charge a 5 percent import tax on ALL Mexican goods coming into the country as of June 10th. He further made clear that this was move not in retaliation for trade issues – in fact conditions had seemed to improve significantly on that front with the US dropping the steel and aluminum taxes on both of its direct neighbors in a bid to push through the USMCA agreement.
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Dividend Adjustments 3 June - 10 June
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 3 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: APAC brief 31 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: The overnight session was, on balance, positive for risk assets, though the conviction behind market-moves was missing. The S&P500 – the natural barometer for market-mood currently – experienced a middling day. It’s closed more-or-less flat, having made a failed foray higher throughout Wall Street trade, to have sold off right-below crucial resistance at 2800. For the bulls in the market, circumstances didn’t fundamentally change last night. The short-term trend is pointing to the downside, with momentum clearly holding in that direction, too. The 200-day moving average is acting as a magnet for the index now, seemingly keeping the market neutralized until the next market-moving catalyst.
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Post in USDCAD short drop before a mega rally?
Mercury posted a post in a topic,
"USDCAD continues it tortuous consolidation with lots of whipsaw action. The price action still looks like a complex retrace trapped in a range to me but this market has arrived at a critical juncture this morning with a short term double top just posted. If the market rejects a breakout to a higher high then the retrace move remains intact and a sharp drop should ensue. However a breakout would indicate that the wave B bigger picture retrace/consolidation is not yet done and more upside is on the cards for a while."
Bollinger Bands 20, 2.5 - always wins, what am I missing?
TheDudeLondon posted a topic in General Trading Strategy Discussion,
"Pretty simple strategy: I am looking on a daily chart for the major indices (eg S&P500, Nikkei 225, DAX30) and have Bollinger bands (20, 2.5). As soon as there is a significant breakout below the lower band (or higher band, but since I have started trading, it was always the lower one) I will buy in. Usually not into a straight falling knife but wait until there is some stability eg for 15-30min at a low level."
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Markets returning to normal trade: APAC brief 29 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Markets returning to normal trade: action is any guide, their verdict of the weekend news flow is “not much has really changed”. This isn’t to say the movements in financial markets in the past 12-18 hours have been ones of major conviction. Afterall, volumes are still light and the extent of the moves in price witnessed were modest. Nevertheless, despite what was notionally a tranquil weekend for financial market news, market participants have seen it fit to continue to take risk off the table, as if nothing has really changed at all.
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The future of Europe in question: APAC brief 27 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
Global political economy in focus: International diplomacy, politics and global trade are at centre of attention to begin the new week. Indeed, that’s in part due to the corporate and economic calendar appearing relatively lighter, being the final week of the month; as well as the fact the UK and US are off on public holidays on Monday. But even in the absence of other hard-hitting, high impact news, the confluence of politics-related headlines merits attention in their own right. And it spans the globe: Trump is talking trade in Japan, the Europeans are voting in their Parliamentary elections, and the UK is now searching for a new Prime Minister.
Markets watching for surprises: The overarching narrative hasn’t fundamentally changed. Generally speaking, a level of bearishness characterizes market activity, as the US-China trade war continues to rattle nerves. Nevertheless, global politics and international relations is bringing-about some shifting gears within the broader economic machine. On balance, there’s been little fall-out from the handful of political events unfolding across the globe. If anything, though not game-changing, they’ve collectively proven to be a net-positive for market sentiment. Of course, this could turn-around rapidly: traders ought to be used to expecting the unexpected by now. Hence, the least that can be said is “so-far”, so good.
Markets watching for surprises: The overarching narrative hasn’t fundamentally changed. Generally speaking, a level of bearishness characterizes market activity, as the US-China trade war continues to rattle nerves. Nevertheless, global politics and international relations is bringing-about some shifting gears within the broader economic machine. On balance, there’s been little fall-out from the handful of political events unfolding across the globe. If anything, though not game-changing, they’ve collectively proven to be a net-positive for market sentiment. Of course, this could turn-around rapidly: traders ought to be used to expecting the unexpected by now. Hence, the least that can be said is “so-far”, so good.
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Post in Indices
Caseynotes posted a post in a topic,
"UK retail sales at 9:30 and US durable goods at 1:30. Strong bear day yesterday though only Nikkei tested key support levels." Stay up to date on how the indices are moving and have your say.
Brent Crude rally ends, time for the big Bear!
Mercury posted a topic in Commodities,
"Looks to me like my question as to whether the the 25 April turn was a rally end or a simple retrace may have been answered as Brent price dropped hard through the supporting lower channel line. I would like to see the recent lows broken to confirm but odds are that this market is now heading down. Could this mean that Stocks have also topped out?"
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Post in Successful strategy?
JamesIG posted a post in a topic,
Analysis of 43 million trades by DailyFX showed that 61% of trades are actually profitable (when looking at EURUSD specifically). Read more about that and check out their Podcast here. Have any questions? Ask away.
Post in Dax & Dow
Bell posted a post in a topic,
What are your long term opinions on market movements? "As for the Dow above 26k lets rock and roll long. Below 25k time to get more aggressively short in my eyes."
Post in US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity
dmedin posted a post in a topic,
What's your trigger for opening a trade? Discuss with others on the Community, specifically about the US500: "I think there's a potential possibility of shorting S&P 500 brewing. I want to wait to see if the 20 MA does drop beneath the 50 MA."
A split in the trade war path; growth forecasts; EU Parliamentary elections - DailyFX Key Themes
JohnDFX posted a blog entry in Market News,
Are We Turning the Corner on Global Trade Wars? There were a few very prominent, positive developments on the trade war front this past week, but is it enough to systemically change the course of the global economic standoff back towards the cooperative growth of the past?
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Post in Problem with high stakes poker
786Trader posted a post in a topic,
"How does the hand get played out? That's the trillion dollar question. Xi has the advantage of time. Trump the advantage of financial clout (he's their biggest customer). However, the poker analogy is not really fair as the results are not binary, more quantum than binary. There are no big winners from an escalation of the current situation and the downsides are far from desirable."
Price-action looks ominous for the S&P500: APAC brief - 20 May
MaxIG posted a blog entry in Market News,
A choppy week ends generally flat for Wall Street: Global stocks ended the week on softer footing. But if one narrows their attention to just the S&P500 as the bellwether, the past 5-days culminated in only a 0.76 per cent fall. Trade continues to dominate sentiment on a macro-scale. The US-China trade-war has deteriorated considerably, with positivity in the market currently being sustained by some vague hope that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet on the sidelines of June’s G20 meeting to discuss trade. A total reversal of tariffs between the US and China looks increasingly unlikely however, so markets wait now for the new trade-barriers detrimental consequences to manifest in market fundamentals.
Risk appetite is waning: Intraday price action on Wall Street somewhat reflected the loosening control buyers have on this market. After a spill at the open, the S&P500 grinded higher throughout trade to turn positive on headlines that the US would be removing steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It proved to be cold comfort for market participants, however. Volatility edged-up throughout the session, US Treasuries gained very slightly, and the S&P500 shed 0.58 per cent, capping off a day which witnessed a marked flow out of risk-assets, and into safe-haven assets, wherever they could be found.
Risk appetite is waning: Intraday price action on Wall Street somewhat reflected the loosening control buyers have on this market. After a spill at the open, the S&P500 grinded higher throughout trade to turn positive on headlines that the US would be removing steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It proved to be cold comfort for market participants, however. Volatility edged-up throughout the session, US Treasuries gained very slightly, and the S&P500 shed 0.58 per cent, capping off a day which witnessed a marked flow out of risk-assets, and into safe-haven assets, wherever they could be found.
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Something Interesting
Caseynotes posted a topic in General Trading Strategy Discussion,
"USDCNH is flying up to key resistance could mean Govt interventions coming or are they going to let it go through 70000?"
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