Our Picks

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
GBP/USD looks to be stabilizing after its losses over the past few sessions caused principally by US Dollar strength.
So far, the pair has largely ignored setbacks for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson but there’s a risk that it could suffer further if the pressures on him continue to grow.

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK:
Crude oil price up as world powers underwhelm with reserves release plan.
US PCE inflation, FOMC meeting minutes eyed for Fed policy outlook cues.
Rebound fails to overcome past resistance, keeping focus on the downside.

A coordinated release of strategic oil reserves has done little to help drive down crude oil prices, with energy instead looking to break out from its recent bearish phase.

Source: Bloomberg

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY ANALYSIS:
The Turkish Lira drops nearly 20% on the day, tainting EM currencies across the board.
USD/ZAR trades higher despite attempt to halt the EM slide.
IT’S NOT A CRYPTOCURRENCY, IT’S THE TURKISH LIRA

GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD), CHART, AND ANALYSIS:
UST 2-year yields are back at highs last seen in March 2020.
Gold breaks below $1,800/oz.
Wednesday’s US PCE release the next driver for the precious metal.

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
GBP/USD has been falling steeply since Friday, largely due to USD strength.
That weakness could well persist as the pair nears critical support levels.
The UK flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for November, released this session, came in above economists’ expectations but had no impact on GBP.

First it was known for the Black Friday stock market crash – then for being the biggest shopping day of the year. The meaning may have evolved, but today, Black Friday is still a subject for stock market scrutiny. Which retailers look set to benefit? What can we learn from the price action of past years? And what factors help you trade the period? We’ll find out. But first, a history lesson.

US DOLLAR, FED, POWELL, TREASURY YIELDS, CRUDE OIL, OPEC+ - TALKING POINTS:
The US Dollar rode higher as US yields rose across the curve.
Crude oil prices recovered after OPEC+ threw a curve ball.
With Thanksgiving almost here, where will USD go on holiday?

IAG has given up much of its post-lockdown share price gain, and with the prospect of tighter restrictions worrying investors the shares continue to struggle.

Source: Bloomberg

USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
DXY tested and held slope from June.
Currently trading in open space with room to run.

GBP/USD PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS:
Covid lockdowns a headwind for the Euro.
Bank of England chief economist open to larger interest rate hikes.
Hefty retail positional changes over the last week.

S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW, DOLLAR AND NZDJPY TALKING POINTS:
The S&P 500 has worked its way into a terminal wedge that will have to break as it runs out of room, but the Dow and Nasdaq 100’s divergent paths make resolution unclear.
While the Thanksgiving holiday will create serious seasonal distortions in the market, monetary policy remains a driving theme with the Fed Chair pick a center point.
Other key market concern ahead includes; the RBNZ rate decision expected to end with a 25bp hike; attention shifting back to rising Covid cases and China’s unresolved risks.

FED CHAIR NOMINATION TALKING POINTS:
US President Joe Biden is expected to make his decision on who will be the next Fed Chair in the coming days.
Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to end in February 2022 if he’s not reappointed to another four-year term.
If Powell is not reappointed, current Fed Governor Lael Brainard is seen as the mostly likely alternative.

Flash PMIs from around the globe dominate the week in terms of economic data, along with US durable goods orders and the German IFO index. The second half of the week is likely to be quieter thanks to the US Thanksgiving holiday. Key corporate names to watch this week include Zoom, HP and Gap in the US, and Compass and AO World in the UK.

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GBP/USD PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS:
UK retail sales data a positive for the British Pound.
EU-UK talks seem to be progressing.
US dollar strength holding back GBP/USD.

JAPANESE YEN, USD/JPY, US DOLLAR, US TREASURIES, HANG SENG, FED - TALKING POINTS:
The Japanese Yen is caught between bullish momentum and resistance levels.
APAC equity indices mostly moved slightly higher except for the Hang Seng Index.
The US Dollar has gyrated to Treasury yield swings, will that drive USD/JPY?

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 22nd November 2021. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.

CRUDE OIL PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS:
US President looking for coordinated action on oil stockpiles.
Crude oil will remain capped as discussions continue.

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
GBP has been outperforming even a firm US Dollar over the past few sessions, with EUR/GBP falling steeply.
That’s despite a row over second jobs for members of the UK Parliament and sleaze allegations centering on the ruling Conservative Party that could weaken the Pound longer term.

CANADIAN DOLLAR, US YIELDS, CRUDE OIL, NZD/USD, AUD/USD - TALKING POINTS:
The Canadian Dollar got hit by bond traders’ expectations being disappointed.
APAC equities were listless, undermined after a risk-off sentiment lead from the US.
Crude oil fell, gold held and commodity currencies softened. Where to for USD/CAD?

EUR/USD RATE TALKING POINTS:
EUR/USD is on track to mark a six day decline as it trades to a fresh yearly low (1.1263), and recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) raises the scope for a further depreciation in the exchange rate as the indicator crosses below 30 to push into oversold territory.

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US Dollar Price, Chart, and Analysis:
US dollar basket spikes above 96.00.
Multiple Fed speakers on the docket.

US DOLLAR, TREASURY YIELDS, FED, BULLARD, AUD/USD, CBA, USD/JPY - TALKING POINTS:
The US Dollar continues to break new ground as momentum gathers.
Encouraging economic data and hawkish comments boost yields and USD.
Commodities and currencies weaken against the Dollar. Will USD keep going?