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MongiIG

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  1. MongiIG

    IG Charts Request Poll

    By MongiIG,


    Product Updates
    Your Poll vote matters:
    Hello IG Community! We are working towards making IG trading platform charting developments better to provide a good user trading experience.
    Why? We strive to provide our clients with the best charts, therefore your feedback is important to us and we will pass on your feedback to our development team. 
    We would appreciate it if you could take part in the poll as we are continuously working on adding more chart features to our IG trading platform to make your trading experience better. 
     
    Charts request options:
    Please read the information on all the options below and then vote on what you would like IG to work on offering next.
    1.      Add indicators/tools
    Whether you’re interested in forex trading, commodities or share trading, it can be helpful to use technical analysis as part of your strategy – and this includes studying various trading indicators. Trading indicators are mathematical calculations, which are plotted as lines on a price chart and can help traders identify certain signals and trends within the market.
    There are different types of trading indicators, including leading indicators and lagging indicators. A leading indicator is a forecast signal that predicts future price movements, while a lagging indicator looks at past trends and indicates momentum.
     
    2.      Timeframes
    A timeframe in trading can refer to any designated unit of time in which trading takes place. Typically, forex timeframes will be measured in seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months or years. You will choose the timeframe that is most suited to your trading strategy.
     
    3.      Customise indicators/tools
    Once you’ve applied your indicator to a chart, right-click on the indicator itself. From here you can edit values, colours and styles.
     
    4.      Drawings
    You can edit drawings, the values, by right-clicking on your drawing. You can also duplicate or delete drawings in this way.  
     
    5.      Backtesting
    Backtesting will run a trading strategy against historic data for an instrument, and give you a detailed report on how it would have executed trades. Apply indicators & trading systems then create a new strategy or modify an existing one. 
    Backtesting is one of the most important aspects of developing a trading system. If created and interpreted properly, it can help traders optimize and improve their strategies, find any technical or theoretical flaws, as well as gain confidence in their strategy before applying it to the real world markets.
     
    6.     Trade from chart
    The Trade from charts feature helps you place orders directly on the charts on the trading platform . You can place Limit and Stop Loss Market (SL-M) orders on this feature.
    If you place a buy order less than the CMP (Current Market Price), a limit order will be placed. If you place a buy order more than the CMP, an SL-M order will be placed.
    Similarly, if you place a sell order higher than the CMP, a limit order will be placed. If you place a sell order lesser than the CMP, an SL-M order will be placed.
     
    7.      Deeper history
    Displaying historical data, you may scroll historical data using left-mouse drag on the chart. To scroll historical data, left-mouse click on the chart and drag the mouse to the left. For example having more than 5 years historical chart data.
    Historical data analysis is the study of market behavior over a given period of time. Through detailed examination of a market's past behavior, traders and investors can gain perspective on the inner workings of that market. The information obtained over the course of the process may prove useful in developing a viable trading plan or improving an existing methodology.
     
    8.      Scaling
    We understand the importance of precision in the technical analysis and add the ability to set the exact price and time scale ratio.
    Scaling will be for editing your chart on the price scale. This is a fast way to edit your chart's price scale to make it easier to visualize. Using this simple tip will let you customize your chart from what line and labels are showing on chart, one of the fastest ways to customize your chart.
     
    9.      Weekend data
    Platform customisation feature you can completely customise your trading experience, setting up the platform in exactly the way you want it. To customise your trading hours to be in line with the New York or London open or close – you’ll have access to an editable workspace that gives you what you need, when you need it.
    This option lets you display or hide weekend data (Saturday and Sunday). The official market time zone is used to determine what data is included in "weekend data".
     
    10.     Time zones
    Time zones selected modify the time zones used to display data displayed on the charts. The time zones chosen affects all data including times displayed in charts, order lists and tick by tick lists.
     
     

     
    Thank you very much for sharing your valuable & useful feedback. Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions or feedback help shape our direction and future.
    We appreciate that the best businesses are built around two-way communication with clients. If you have other feedback or suggestions and time to spare, please write to us and comment on this blog why you picked your charts request and why not the others. 
    We would love to hear from you!
     
    All the best - MongiIG

  2. MongiIG

    Market Details Poll

    By MongiIG,


    Product Update
    Hello IG Community,
    IG is always looking for ways to improve our clients’ experience. We are currently looking at how we can improve your experience before you place a trade. We would love to hear what market and pre-trade analysis you currently explore, as well as additional features, changes or improvements you would like to see to the platform in this area. Our goal is to make your analysis quicker and easier whilst remaining focused and in-depth.
    Your poll vote matters! We are working towards making IG trading platform developments for the client sentiment indicator feature. We would appreciate it if you could take part in the poll as we are continuously working on adding more indicators to our IG trading platform to make your trading experience better. 

     
    Client Sentiment Indicator - IG trading platform
    A sentiment indicator is designed to represent how a group feels about the market or economy. Sentiment indicators gauge market psychology in the form of investor or consumer behavior and beliefs that may influence the market.
    When a sentiment indicator is moving in the same direction as what it is analyzing, that typically helps confirm that trend.
    Extreme readings on a sentiment indicator may cause some traders to take a contrarian view; for example, "buy when there is fear, sell when there is greed".
    Sentiment indicators are used to analyze trends, assets, and the economy from the perspective of the participants involved, instead of just looking at an asset or data point isolation.


     
    Market details Poll features:
    Broker Ratings
     
    Other positions taken by clients trading the same market, trading activity and top movers
     

     

     
    Chart patterns, find a market, most open positions, most traded



     
    Macro-economic events

     
     

     
    Thank you very much for sharing your valuable & useful feedback. Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions or feedback help shape our direction and future.
    We appreciate that the best businesses are built around two-way communication with clients. If you have other feedback or suggestions and time to spare, please write to us and comment on this blog why you picked your market detail and why not the others. 
    We would love to hear from you!
     
    All the best - MongiIG

  3. MongiIG

    IG Indicators Request Poll

    By MongiIG,


    Product Updates
    Your Poll vote matters:
    Hello IG Community! We are working towards making IG trading platform indicators developments better to provide a good user trading experience.
    Why? We strive to provide our clients with the best trading indicators, therefore your feedback is important to us and we will pass on your feedback to our development team. 
    We would appreciate it if you could take part in the poll as we are continuously working on adding more indicators to our IG trading platform to make your trading experience better. 
     
    Indicators request options:
    Please read the information on all the options below and then vote on what you would like IG to work on offering next.
    1. Logarithmic Scale
    A logarithmic price scale, also referred to as a "log scale", is a type of scale used on a chart that is plotted such that two equivalent price changes are represented by the same vertical distance on the scale.
    Logarithmic price scales are a type of scale used on a chart, plotted such that two equivalent price changes are represented by the same vertical changes on the scale.
    They are generally used for the long-term perspective analysis of price changes. They differ from linear price scales because they display percentage points and not dollar price increases for a stock.
     
    2. Hull Moving Average
    The Hull Moving Average (HMA) is a directional trend indicator. It captures the current state of the market and uses recent price action to determine if conditions are bullish or bearish relative to historical data.
    The Hull differs from more traditional trend indicators like the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Simple Moving Average (SMA). It is designed to reduce the lag often associated with those MAs by providing a faster signal on a smoother visual plane.
     
    3. Client Sentiment
    A sentiment indicator is designed to represent how a group feels about the market or economy. Sentiment indicators gauge market psychology in the form of investor or consumer behavior and beliefs that may influence the market.
    When a sentiment indicator is moving in the same direction as what it is analyzing, that typically helps confirm that trend.
    Extreme readings on a sentiment indicator may cause some traders to take a contrarian view; for example, "buy when there is fear, sell when there is greed".
    Sentiment indicators are used to analyze trends, assets, and the economy from the perspective of the participants involved, instead of just looking at an asset or data point isolation.
     
    4. Volume at Price
    A price by volume (PBV) chart is a horizontal histogram plotted on a security's chart, showing the volume of shares traded at a specific price level. Often times, price by volume histograms are found on the Y-axis and are used by technical traders to predict areas of support and resistance.
    Price by volume charts are used to illustrate high buying and selling interest at specific price levels. They are indicative of price levels over a certain period of time. They are generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis.
     
    5. Renko
    A Renko chart is a type of chart, developed by the Japanese, that is built using price movement rather than both price and standardized time intervals like most charts are. It is thought to be named after the Japanese word for bricks, "renga," since the chart looks like a series of bricks. A new brick is created when the price moves a specified price amount, and each block is positioned at a 45-degree angle (up or down) to the prior brick. An up brick is typically colored white or green, while a down brick is typically colored black or red.
    Renko charts are composed of bricks that are created at 45-degree angles to one another. Consecutive bricks do not occur beside each other. A brick can be any price size, such a $0.10, $0.50, $5, and so on. This is called the box size. Box size can also be based on the Average True Range (ATR).
    Renko charts have a time axis, but the time scale is not fixed. Some bricks may take longer to form than others, depending on how long it takes the price to move the required box size. Renko charts filter out noise and help traders to more clearly see the trend, since all movements that are smaller than the box size are filtered out. Renko charts typically only use closing prices based on the chart time frame chosen. For example, if using a weekly time frame, then weekly closing prices will be used to construct the bricks.
     
    6. Fractals
    The fractal indicator is based on a simple price pattern that is frequently seen in financial markets. Outside of trading, a fractal is a recurring geometric pattern that is repeated on all time frames. From this concept, the fractal indicator was devised. The indicator isolates potential turning points on a price chart. It then draws arrows to indicate the existence of a pattern. The bullish fractal pattern signals the price could move higher. A bearish fractal signals the price could move lower. Bullish fractals are marked by a down arrow, and bearish fractals are marked by an up arrow.
     
    7. Volume Profile
    Volume Profile is an advanced charting study that displays trading activity over a specified time period at specified price levels. The study (accounting for user defined parameters such as number of rows and time period) plots a histogram on the chart meant to reveal dominant and/or significant price levels based on volume. Essentially, Volume Profile takes the total volume traded at a specific price level during the specified time period and divides the total volume into either buy volume or sell volume and then makes that information easily visible to the trader.
     
    8. Order Book
    An order book is updated in real time because it’s an important indicator of the market depth – the amount of trades at any given moment – which is why they are sometimes called a ‘continuous book’. Order books can also identify the buyers and sellers behind each individual exchange.
     
     

    Thank you very much for sharing your valuable & useful feedback. Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions or feedback help shape our direction and future.
    We appreciate that the best businesses are built around two-way communication with clients. If you have other feedback or suggestions and time to spare, please write to us and comment on this blog why you picked your indicators request and why not the others. 
    We would love to hear from you!
     
    All the best - MongiIG

  4. MongiIG

    Community Survey Questions

    By MongiIG,


    Community Survey Questions
    Hello IG Community,
    At IG, we are working to improve investing and trading content for you. We would really like to know what you feel about investing and trading content. Please take and complete this 10-minute survey and feel free to provide honest feedback or suggestions and write to us with a comment on this blog why you picked your multiple choices for each question and why not the other choices. Your responses will help us improve our investing and trading content. Your feedback will be collected and only used for this research. 
     
     

    Thank you very much for your participation and sharing your valuable & useful feedback. Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions or feedback help shape our direction and future.
    We would love to hear from you!
     
    All the best - MongiIG

     
  5. MongiIG

    Market Details Poll

    By MongiIG,


    Product Update
    Hello IG Community,
    IG is always looking for ways to improve our clients’ experience. We are currently looking at how we can improve your experience before you place a trade. We would love to hear what market and pre-trade analysis you currently explore, as well as additional features, changes or improvements you would like to see to the platform in this area. Our goal is to make your analysis quicker and easier whilst remaining focused and in-depth.
    Your poll vote matters! We are working towards making IG trading platform developments for the client sentiment indicator feature. We would appreciate it if you could take part in the poll as we are continuously working on adding more indicators to our IG trading platform to make your trading experience better. 

     
    Client Sentiment Indicator - IG trading platform
    A sentiment indicator is designed to represent how a group feels about the market or economy. Sentiment indicators gauge market psychology in the form of investor or consumer behavior and beliefs that may influence the market.
    When a sentiment indicator is moving in the same direction as what it is analyzing, that typically helps confirm that trend.
    Extreme readings on a sentiment indicator may cause some traders to take a contrarian view; for example, "buy when there is fear, sell when there is greed".
    Sentiment indicators are used to analyze trends, assets, and the economy from the perspective of the participants involved, instead of just looking at an asset or data point isolation.


     
    Market details Poll features:
    Broker Ratings
     
    Other positions taken by clients trading the same market, trading activity and top movers
     

     

     
    Chart patterns, find a market, most open positions, most traded



     
    Macro-economic events

     
     

     
    Thank you very much for sharing your valuable & useful feedback. Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions or feedback help shape our direction and future.
    We appreciate that the best businesses are built around two-way communication with clients. If you have other feedback or suggestions and time to spare, please write to us and comment on this blog why you picked your market detail and why not the others. 
    We would love to hear from you!
     
    All the best - MongiIG

  6. MongiIG
    Hello IG Community,
    We're happy to announce that Signal Centre Trade Ideas expert advisor (EA) is now available to use on MetaTrader 4 Platform.
                                                                                  
                                                                                         
     
     
    Use Signal Centre to discover trade ideas
    The Signal Centre team of experienced technical analysts and professional traders scrutinise the global financial markets daily to provide comprehensive analysis on the latest market trends and to deliver clear trade ideas that enhance trading opportunities.

    How it works:
    Forward Thinking Analysis
    Signal Centre combines experienced, human-led analysts with powerful, AI technology to conduct a deep analysis of the markets whilst drawing on our professional trading expertise to deliver robust risk/reward trade ideas that support novice and advanced traders alike.
    Market Analysis
    Signal Centre is FCA regulated. The compliant-friendly approach uses advanced analysis techniques to understand the latest activity across all major markets and asset classes. The team of experienced market professionals use both traditional and alternative data sets to gain a comprehensive view of the markets, from the short to the long term, to suit all trading styles.
    Idea Generation
    Signal Centre turns its rich analysis content and data into instant, actionable trading ideas and longer term strategies, helping traders of all levels to gain an edge. Clear and concise, our trading signals are designed to make trading the markets simpler and more enjoyable for all.
    Delivery
    Signal Centre portfolio of products and delivery methods are designed to increase engagement and fit with individual trading styles, workflows and environments. Available in multiple languages across multiple time frames and accessible via multiple channels and automation solutions.
     

     
     
    Simplified Decision Making
     

     

     

     
    Installation
    Launch your MT4 platform. Look for the Expert Advisors section under the Navigator panel at the left side of the platform. Click on the Plus sign and the available EAs should be listed there. Click on the Signal Centre Trade Ideas EA to install and drag it onto one of the charts on your platform.

     
    After installing and dragging the Signal Centre Trade Ideas EA onto one of the charts on your platform it will then appear as shown below:

     
    MT4 Download Link (Only for Windows).
     
    All the best - MongiIG

     
     
     
     
  7. MongiIG

    New Members Guide

    By MongiIG,


    Educational
    Welcome to the IG Community that offers many benefits for financial markets education. We promote autonomous learning by providing opportunities for traders to take more control of their learning. This space allows you to express your trading ideas or trading news you find interesting as well as interact with other likeminded traders. 

     
     
    Promoted news (Our Picks) – Why it’s there ?
     
    This will help you grow with your knowledge of the financial markets understanding and staying updated with the latest news from around the world that affects and moves the markets. Knowing what news events and reports are scheduled or updates for a trading day or a week will help keep you informed on potential market movements. When trading in any market, it is very important for new traders to be aware of the various economic indicators and news events and releases that shape the markets. Being able to distinguish which data to look out for, discerning what it means and knowing how to trade it can give traders an edge and set them up long-term. On the community we regularly contribute to various content threads and discussions, we offer a wide array of research related products and tools that can help enhance a traders overall experience.

     
     
     
    How to find the forum section
     
    Visit the IG Community website and you can view forum threads and start a new topic.
    On the overview page when you scroll down you can view the latest forum posts.

     
     
     
    You can click the forum tab and there you will find forums such as strategy and market discussion where you can discuss and read market related information such as commodities, shares and ETFs, investments, share dealing and smart portfolios, indices and macro events, cryptocurrency and blockchain, foreign exchange (FX) and lastly general trading strategy discussion. 


     
     
    New to IG forum will show new to IG Community and new client trading questions.

     
     
    Help: Trading, Platforms, Apps and Chart support you will find forums such as IG trading support – dealing questions, IG account support – MyIG help, IG technical support – Platform and App help, IG chart support – charts, MT4 and PRT and lastly feedback and suggestions.

     
     
     
    Unread content
     
    This area shows posts across the whole community that you haven't seen over the last year. We have the newest ones at the top so you can see the most up to date posts from members.

     
     
    Who the moderators are and how to quote/ tag them
     
    The IG Community moderators are @MongiIG @OfentseIG

    You can click follow on forums or members that interest you and to reply on the posted forum you can click on reply to this topic and start a new topic.

    Submit reply and we will gladly assist you.
     
     
    Notifications, what they mean and how to open them
     
    We'll show you these notifications when you visit the community - just click the bell icon. Notifications that are sent to your devices even if you're not currently browsing. Notifications that we send as an email go to email address.

     
     
    IG Community Tutorials 
     
    Snapshot articles to help you get the most out of IG Community please kindly visit:

     

     
     
     
     
    How to follow other members in the community.
     
    There are a number of areas within Community which you can ‘Follow’. Threads, community members, blogs, and gallery posters. When you click on the ‘follow’ link you will be asked specifics on how often you would like to be updated on the content published. You can see an example below of a ‘follow’ on the Cryptocurrency thread.

    You can also follow individuals by visiting their profile (simply click on their name), however the updates options are slightly different. You can also decide if you want others to know you are following a specific individual. This is a good option if you like the content someone posts, want to keep up to date with stuff the Community manager or moderator’s posts, or even the IG analysts.

     
     
    IGTV On Demand
      We have an internal team that produces content, live news updates, data and analytics in real time financial market coverage which helps you the trader to engage in the worlds financial markets.  
     
    Happy trading and look forward to your first post!
     
    All the best - MongiIG
  8. MongiIG
    After former CEO Bernard Looney’s exit, BP shares could be ripe for a takeover. Here’s why.
    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares BP FTSE 100 Big Oil Takeover  
     Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 13 October 2023  BP (LON: BP) shares have fallen by 10.5% over the past five years and sunk from 568p in mid-February 2023 to 499p today. The FTSE 100 oil major is a significant component of the index but could now be a buyout target.
    As ever, there’s always a bigger fish.
    BP shares: Q2 results and Looney exit
    In Q2 earnings, BP’s profits fell sharply by 70% year-over-year to $2.6 billion — missing analyst estimates due to falling oil trading income and refining margins.
    However, this underperformance was widely mirrored by competitors faced with the same comparators (the immediate aftermath of the start of the Ukraine War). And BP was still able to boost its dividend by 10% to 7.27 cents per share — and it also promised to repurchase $1.5 billion of shares over Q3.
    But for context, in May the company slowed its quarterly buyback programme from $2.75 billion to $1.75 billion, sending BP’s share price down the most in one day since 2020.
    Former CEO Bernard Looney enthused that the company’s ‘underlying performance was resilient with good cash delivery - during a period of significant turnaround activity and weaker margins in our refining business.’
    But shortly after this mixed set of results, Looney was forced to admit that he had not been ‘fully transparent’ over intimate relationships with employees — and this was followed with allegations that he had promoted women who he had had a relationship with — leading to a shock resignation.
    January FTSE 100 speculation
    Earlier this year, Citigroup analysts speculated that Exxon Mobil or Chevron might consider a buyout offer for the FTSE 100 oil major — with a megamerger looking attractive on valuation terms. The analysts argued that the comparatively lower valuations suffered by European oil and gas sector stocks couldn’t be closed organically — that ‘markets are unlikely to close the gap themselves.’
    They added ‘we look at the strategic imperative, financial accretion and political headwinds of either of the two US IOCs (Exxon or Chevron) potentially looking to try and acquire one of their key European competitors (BP, Shell or TotalEnergies).’
    This was a view shared by M&G head of equities Michael Stiasny, who in January noted that he ‘would not be shocked to see a big name in the oil and gas or mining sectors subject to a bid, with companies like BP trading at a significant discount to their US peers.’
    Further to this, BP shares have underperformed during Looney’s tenure — even if this was due to the investment needed for the start of its green strategy.
    Indeed, Bloomberg data indicates that the FTSE 100 company’s shares rose by 15%, while Shell’s market capitalisation increased by 29% in this time. Much of this lower growth has been laid at BP’s increased focus on the green transition compared to peers — arguably solid long-term investments, but which have left the company trailing the competition.
    RBC Capital Markets analysts have previously argued that the former CEO sold oil and gas assets (including Alaskan operations) ‘at poor points in the cycle and at relatively low valuations’ in order to fund renewables projects.
    With Looney out and interim CEO Murray Auchincloss now needing to project calm — including a need to balance BP’s strategic pivot away from greener energy in February with some investor disquiet — Q4 could see the American titans consider a move. Auchincloss argued in Abu Dhabi a few days ago that ‘one person leaving does not change the strategy’ set out in February — but not everybody is convinced.
    While acquiring the £85 billion company would be difficult even for a supermajor, it’s worth noting that the entire industry is one built on gigantic mergers; BP itself bought Amoco for $48 billion in 1998.
    Of course, new 2021 takeover rules allow the government to block a buyout on national security grounds — and it’s hard to see the government keen to allow yet another important UK company to leave London without a fight.
    FTSE 100 oil major takeover?
    But the macroeconomic picture could make a BP takeover an attractive prospect for the American firms. OPEC+ members Russia and Saudi Arabia have cut production to the end of the year, and the cartel’s secretary general argues that demand could grow by ‘about 2.4 million barrels a day.’
    Al Ghais has called underinvestment in the sector ‘dangerous’ — arguing that the industry will need close to $14 trillion of investment by 2045 to support the energy transition. With Brent still trading at elevated levels of circa $84/barrel, BP shares could well be a top FTSE 100 takeover target.
    Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
         
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. MongiIG
    Rolls-Royce shares could be an undervalued FTSE 100 opportunity after Morgan Stanley judges them ‘woefully mispriced.’
    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares Roll-Royce Revenue Investment FTSE 100  Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 20 June 2022  Rolls-Royce (LON: RR) shares have long been the ‘jewel in the crown’ of the FTSE 100, with the company name a hallmark of quality.
    Of course, it’s been a less inspiring investment choice, down 92% from its record 1,159p in December 2013, 73% in the past five years, and 30% year-to-date to 89p today.
    However, Morgan Stanley thinks Rolls-Royce shares are ‘woefully mispriced.’ And encouragingly, the investment manager believes an earnings recovery ‘is much closer than the market has priced in, while earnings and cash flow are directly geared to the next leg of a global aviation recovery.’
    Rolls-Royce share price: revenue recovery
    Rolls-Royce’s revenue fell from £11.49 billion to £11.22 billion in 2021, with £4.5 billion derived from its civil aerospace division, £3.3 billion from defence, and £2.8 billion from power systems.
    But the FTSE 100 company turned a 2020 £3 billion loss into a £124 million profit last year, as lockdowns ended and demand for travel surged. And it completed its £1.3 billion cost-cutting programme a year early, axed 9,000 jobs, and sold off ancillary businesses in a disposals programme that generated £2 billion.
    However, net debt now stands at over £5 billion, driven by last year’s £1.2 billion spending on research and design, as well as the superlong investment cycles necessitated by the aerospace sector. This could become a problem as interest rates rise.
    But CEO Warren East, who is stepping down at the end of the year, believes the company has ‘made significant progress on the path to recovery from the impact of COVID-19.’
    Further, he expects Rolls-Royce will ‘achieve positive profit and cash this year, driven by the benefits of our cost reductions and increased engine flying hours in Civil Aerospace together with a strong performance in Defence and Power Systems, and balanced by our commitment to invest in technology and systems.’
    Source: Bloomberg Where next for Rolls-Royce shares?
    Rolls-Royce is a multi-faceted company with diverse revenue streams. The FTSE 100 stalwart enthuses it has ‘confidence on revenue, profit and cash conversion against the headwinds of inflation and supply chain risk.’
    But as Chair Anita Frew knows, civil aerospace is the company’s golden goose, with long-term service agreements (LTSAs) on jet engines generating the lion’s share of the revenue.
    And as revenue from this division has halved since the pandemic began, the Chair accepts ‘we have to improve the performance of civil…it’s the big beast within the business and it’s the one that really moves the needle.’
    Encouragingly, LTSA flying hours increased by 42% year-over-year in the first four months of 2022, on the back of pent-up passenger demand across Europe and the Americas.
    And as demonstrated by the chaos at airports across Europe, and various optimistic tones from management at airlines ranging from easyJet to IAG, flying hours could hit pre-pandemic levels by this time next year. Of course, with CPI inflation set to hit 11% in October amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis, future travel demand remains unpredictable.
    Moreover, it’s possible that the Ukraine war will help increase revenue at its defence division. However, while it acquiesces that ‘governments are increasing their long-term budget allocations towards defence activities,’ it warns that it’s also ‘not immediately exposed to individual geopolitical events.’ But as the ghost of the Cold War apparates, the longer-term potential is difficult to ignore.
    Then there’s the new markets business, which Rolls hopes will generate £5 billion of annual revenue by the 2030s. It’s made great strides: an all-electric plane breaking world records, the new ultra-efficient power gearbox, and good progress on small modular nuclear reactors.
    In addition, it also benefits from strong political support due to its heritage status and government-owned golden share. PM Johnson and Business Secretary Kwarteng both appear particularly fervent supporters. And given the expensive nature of its business areas, the company is surrounded by a strong protective moat.
    Of course, there’s the long-term problem with decarbonising air travel. And Frew could soon be at odds with investors over the appointment of the next CEO, with disagreements over whether he or she should have aerospace industry experience.
    But with Morgan Stanley onside, civil aviation and defence demand increasing, and promising R&D investments, Rolls-Royce shares could now be a FTSE 100 buying opportunity.
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2021
  10. MongiIG
    Hello Community,
     
    We are proud to be nominated for the 2023 Investing Innovation Awards.
    Vote for your favourite investing provider for the chance to win £500 in a prize draw here: https://www.finder.com/uk/investing-peoples-choice-award
     
    We’re grateful to all our clients for your continuous support!
     
    This prize is in no way associated with IG. By signing up you agree to receive emails from Finder and to the privacy policy and terms & conditions.
  11. MongiIG
    The US dollar index and the DXY started March in a holding pattern; the Fed Chair noted that recent economic data has been stronger than expected and attention turns to this week’s key US labour market indicators.
      Source: Bloomberg
      Federal Reserve Labour economics United States Federal Open Market Committee Consumer price index Unemployment  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 08 March 2023  The US dollar index and the DXY started March in a holding pattern guided sideways by the idea that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t raise interest rates past the levels already priced into markets.
    Reasoning that Fed Chair Powell, in his Testimony to Congress overnight, would look through the run of hot economic data and guided by the more dovish centre of the FOMC committee by expressing a preference for a more extended sequence of 25bp rate hikes.
    However, that sentiment was soon thrown out when the Fed Chair noted recent economic data has been stronger than expected and that if the “totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”
    The probability of a 50bp rate hike at the March FOMC increased from 31% to 69% while the US two-year yields closed above 5% for the first time since May 2007. Simultaneously, the DXY surged to its highest level in thirteen weeks.
    In a nutshell, if Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) and next week’s CPI releases are much hotter than 215k and 0.4% expected, it will push the FOMC towards a 50bp rate hike in March and the DXY index higher again.
    What is expected from this week’s US labour market data?
    Tomorrow at 12.15 am AEDT, the ADP employment report for February will be released. ADP isn’t viewed as an exceptionally reliable indicator for NFP however it is expected to rise by 200k vs 106k in January The JOLTS Job Openings Report for January is scheduled to be released at 2.00 am AEDT and is viewed as a much better guide to the state of the labour market than the ADP report. Unfortunately, it is always one month behind the NFP report.
    The market expects 10.5 million job openings in January, from 11 million in December NFP – the big one will be released on Saturday at 12.30 am AEDT. While weather temperatures cooled in February following a warmer January, little snow fell during the February survey period. This can mean fewer layoffs in retail, leisure, and hospitality.

    Additionally, the labour market appears stronger than expected at the start of 2023. All of which suggests there are upside risks to the market’s consensus expectation of +215k.

    Turning to the other measures, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.4%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise to 4.7% from 4.4%. DXY technical analysis
    After peaking in September at 114.78, the US dollar index and the DXY index, fell over 12% as the market anticipated the Fed would slow its rate hiking cycle and as it moved closer to a potential pause.
    However, as can be viewed on the chart below, the DXY index commenced a recovery in early February, which coincided with the start of the hotter US economic data.
    Not far from the current level, there is a layer of solid resistance coming in between 106.60 (the 200-day MA) and 107.60 (the top of the trend channel from the 114.78 high). In the initial instance, this resistance band is expected to hold before, at the very least, a minor pullback.
    However, should the DXY then see a sustained break above 106.60/107.60, it would open up a push initially towards 110.00 with a scope to 112.00.
    DYX index daily chart
       
    Source: TradingView
  12. MongiIG
    We would love to hear from you, vote on the chip giants poll. Share any analysis with the Community and comment on this blog which is a better stock to hold?
    Mixed earnings and outlooks from chip giants AMD, Nvidia, and Intel leave investors in a cloud of confusion. IGTV’s Angeline Ong takes a look at the issues surrounding the sector to cut through the haze.
     
     Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 04 May 2023 Noise
    AMD, Nvidia, Intel … there’s so much noise in the chip space, it’s hard to hear yourself think. Let’s get you across the details first. Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions) shares slumped after the chip giant’s quarterly sales missed, due to a weak PC market. That is totally opposite to rival Intel Corp (All Sessions), which said the PC market would start rebounding in the second half, raising Intel's margins with it. Meanwhile, Nvidia, which analysts say has the bulk of the AI market, reports at the end of May. Ahead of that, NVIDIA and Australia’s Appen Limited said they were teaming up for AI solutions – the two already work together on developing speech AI and language models. Appen’s shares jumped on the news.
    How do you cut out the noise?
    To understand the sector, you also need to understand the politics, the US is worried that China will one day no longer need its chips so that’s why its redoubling its own chip development efforts. China is, of course, a huge market for the US. Nvidia already sells to China’s top tech firms including Tencent Holdings Ltd, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (All Sessions) and Baidu Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
    However, having China as the global chip manufacturing hub also has potential downsides and risks. So, if you’re looking at investing in chips, it is important that you distinguish the players from the sector and understand the politics surrounding this industry. It’s been painful for those who shorted NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions). Short sellers have lost 5 billion dollars this year as Nvidia’s shares rose more than 90% so far in 2023, and we’re not even midway through.

  13. MongiIG
    Glencore, M&G, and Imperial brands could constitute the three best FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch in October 2023. These shares have been picked for their elevated dividends, currently much higher than the index average.
    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Shares Inflation Dividend FTSE 100 Investment
     Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 100 has experienced a volatile 2023, starting the year at 7,554 points, before breaking the symbolic 8,014 points barrier in February, and then falling to as low as 7,258 points during August.
    The index now stands at 7,499 points after yet more volatility — widely expected given the FTSE’s overweighted composition of oilers, miners, and banks. For context, FTSE Russell data shows that 82% of FTSE 100 companies’ income is derived from overseas.
    The next couple of weeks will be critical to deciding where the Bank of England may go regarding monetary policy. Unemployment figures, GDP data for July, and August’s CPI inflation statistics are all to come before the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
    And perhaps more importantly, the Office for Budget Responsibility is compiling economic forecasts which will inform the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on 22 November. For context, the March budget forecast was that the Bank of England base rate would peak at 4.3%, and it’s already at 5.25%. Ten-year UK borrowing rates were forecast to be an average of 3.6% in March, and they reached 4.8% last month.
    And the OBR had at the time stated that a 1% point rise in borrowing costs would end up ‘wiping out headroom’ the Chancellor might want for tax cuts. In a pre-election era, one where the government must now fork out the cash to repair or replace school buildings while also hoping to deliver some tax cutting, it continues to be an uncertain environment.
    The Chancellor even told Bloomberg that an increase in fiscal headroom was ‘unlikely’ given that inflation has remained stickier than predicted in March — and noted that ‘when you're trying to bring down inflation, you have to be really careful not to pump extra money into the economy.’
    Regarding inflation, while CPI dipped from 7.9% in June to 6.8% in July, the Bank thinks rising petrol prices will push this crucial figure back up to 7.1% in August. However, Governor Andrew Bailey told MPs last week that inflation should still fall ‘markedly’ by the end of 2023, with rates ‘much nearer now to the top of the cycle.’
    Nevertheless, MPC member Catherine Mann has warned that she would ‘rather err on the side of tightening.’ If CPI inflation does indeed rise the day before the MPC meeting, a 25 basis points rise in the base rate may become likely — particularly when you consider the revised GDP figures, showing the UK has recovered from the pandemic far faster than previously through.
    As an aside, £9 billion packaging titan Smurfit Kappa plans to merge with rival WestRock and leave the London Stock Exchange for the NYSE — adding to the UK’s market woes.
    But of course, where there’s uncertainty, there’s opportunity.
    Best FTSE 100 dividend shares to watch
    1. Glencore
    Glencore's half-year adjusted core earnings were perhaps disappointing, falling by more than 50% to $9.39 billion, a far worse result than average city analyst estimates.
    However, the dividend yield remains at 8%, indicating a potentially attractive entry point for a company that may be a little oversold. As CEO Gary Nagle notes, this period ‘may not be the bonanza that everybody was expecting, but China is not all that bad,’ referencing the country’s increased governmental economic support promises as it fights creeping deflation.
    Further, the company is gearing up for the next bull cycle, especially in the critical minerals space. It’s made a $22.5 billion bid for Teck’s coal assets, and has increased interests at various companies while simultaneously selling off 20 non-core assets.
    2. M & G
    M&G is fast becoming a popular FTSE 100 dividend stock among some investors. The savings and investment provider plans to generate operating capital of £2.5 billion by the end of 2024, and yet still boasts a double-digit dividend yield of 10%.
    In Q1 results in June, CEO Andrea Rossi enthused that ‘M&G started the year building on our strong momentum from 2022. At the full-year results we identified three priorities for the Group: maintain financial strength through capital discipline, simplify the business, and deliver profitable growth focusing on Asset Management and Wealth. I am pleased to say we have made good progress on each of those fronts and are on track to deliver on our ambitious targets.’
    Encouragingly, the company saw £1 billion in net client inflows in the wholesale asset management division — an excellent result in a high rate environment. Having returned close to £1 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, the all-important Solvency II coverage ratio still stands at an impressive 200%, and the company may report another excellent set of results later in September.
    3. Imperial Brands
    Imperial Brands — despite potential ESG considerations — remains a popular FTSE 100 dividend stock, with a dependable dividend currently yielding 8%. Tobacco companies are highly defensive companies which are also typically highly cash generative given the addictive nature of nicotine.
    While traditional tobacco products may be declining in some markets, the company is investing heavily in new categories including vaping. Half-year results saw ‘next generation product’ net revenue rise by 19.8% year-over-year, with this acceleration ‘driven by product launches across categories.’
    Meanwhile, operating profits rose by 28% year-over-year to £1.5 billion, mostly as the comparative period included the costs of exiting Russia. However, revenue also increased slightly by 0.3% to £15.4 billion, while volume falls in Germany and the UK were offset by rising sales in Australia, Spain, and the US.
    While net debt is rising due to increasing investment in its next generation products, the dividend rose by 1.5% — and Imperial remains on track to complete its promised £1 billion share buyback program this year.
    Remember, past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

        This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. MongiIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 29th August 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
     

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.
    A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    UKX
    GLEN LN
    1/09/2022
    Special Div
    0.11
    TOP40
    GLEN SJ
    31/08/2022
    Special Div
    0.11

     
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. MongiIG
    The US dollar, measured by the DXY index, rallies on soaring bond yields; Powell’s hawkish comments reinforce the greenback’s advance. What are the key levels to watch for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and gold prices?
      Source: Bloomberg
      Forex Commodities United States dollar Market sentiment Japanese yen Gold
    IG Analyst The dollar's surging momentum

    The broader US dollar opened the session on a subdued note but saw a strong afternoon rally, primarily fueled by surging yields, following lackluster demand for US government securities at a significant Treasury auction. The greenback's upward surge gained further momentum with the hawkish statements made by Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Jerome Powell during a panel hosted by the IMF.
    Powell's hawkish outlook and market uncertainty

    In public remarks, the FOMC chief said that policymakers are not confident they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner. He also indicated that further progress on cooling price pressures is not guaranteed, and stronger growth could warrant higher rates.
    When it was all said and done, the DXY index was up nearly 0.4% on the day. Taken together, Powell’s comments suggest that the central bank is not 100% convinced that the hiking cycle is over. This could mean another possible hike next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to ease, as has been the case since late October (tech stocks have been on a bullish tear, ignoring today’s performance).

    For the time being, expectations will remain in a state of flux, with sentiment shifting with the strength or weakness of data releases. For this reason, it is imperative that traders keep an eye on the economic calendar in the coming days and weeks. That said, one key report worth following is the October consumer price index survey, due out next Tuesday.
    Impact on bond yields and currencies
    In terms of analysts’ projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, bringing the annual rate down to 3.3% from 3.7% previously. The core gauge, for its part, is seen increasing 0.3% monthly, resulting in a yearly reading of 4.3% - unchanged from September. With the Fed hypersensitive to incoming information and fearful of inflationary risks, any upward deviation of official data from consensus estimates should boost bond yields and strengthen the case for higher interest rates for longer. This scenario would be positive for the greenback, but negative for gold, the euro, the Australian dollar and the yen.
    EUR/USD technical analysis

    After facing rejection from Fibonacci resistance at 1.0765, EUR/USD has undergone a quick pullback, with the exchange rate now flirting the lower limit of a support band at 1.0650. The bulls must defend this floor at all costs – failure to do so can send the pair reeling, driving prices toward trendline support at 1.0555. On further weakness, the possibility of a retest of the 2023 lows come into view.

    In case the market turns and sentiment swings in favor of the bulls, the first technical barrier to watch appears at 1.0765, where the 200-day simple moving average aligns with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the July/October decline. Overcoming this confluence of key levels could reinforce the bullish momentum, paving the way for a move towards 1.0840.
    EUR/USD technical chart
      Source: TradingView
    USD/JPY technical analysis

    USD/JPY pulled back last week, but has reasserted its upward momentum, taking out an important ceiling at 150.90 and charging towards its 2022 and 2023 highs, just shy of the psychological 152.00 mark. With prices on a bullish tear and approaching an important tech zone, traders should exercise caution, as Tokyo may step in any minute to curb speculative activity and prevent further yen depreciation.

    In the event of FX intervention by Japanese authorities, USD/JPY could quickly sink below 150.90 and head towards the 149.00 handle. On further weakness, the focus shifts to 147.25, followed by 146.00. If Tokyo stays out of currency markets and allows the exchange to drift above 152.00, a potential rally towards the upper boundary of a medium-term rising channel at 153.40 becomes conceivable.
    USD/JPY technical chart
      Source: TradingView
    AUD/USD technical analysis

    AUD/USD fell for the fourth straight session on Thursday, erasing all gains accumulated following last week’s bullish breakout, which turned out to be a fakeout. After this pullback, the pair has arrived at an important support near 0.6350. The integrity of this area level is vital; a failure to maintain it could result in a drop towards 0.6325. On further weakness, a revisit to this year's lows could be in the cards.

    Despite the recent setback for the Australian dollar, the bullish scenario should not be entirely dismissed. That said, if the bulls engineer a comeback and trigger a rebound off current levels, overhead resistance appears around the 0.6400 handle, followed by 0.6460. Successfully overcoming this technical barrier could reignite bullish momentum, opening the door for a rally toward the November highs near 0.6500.
    AUD/USD technical chart
      Source: TradingView
    Gold technical analysis

    Earlier this week, gold reversed lower when the bulls failed to take out a critical ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 area. However, XAU/USD has started to perk up after this setback, with prices encountering support around the 200-day simple moving average ahead of a modest bounce. If gains pick up pace in the coming trading sessions, initial resistance appears at $1,980, followed by $2,010/$2,015.

    Conversely, if sellers return and regain the upper hand in financial markets, the first floor to monitor is positioned at $1,945, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Although gold might find a foothold in this region during a pullback, a breakdown could prompt a descent towards $1,920. Below this region, the focus transitions to $1,900.
    Gold price chart
      Source: TradingView
     
     
     
     
     
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
  16. MongiIG

    What are IG’s Christmas trading hours?

    By MongiIG,


    Festive Period Trading Hours
    What are IG’s Christmas trading hours?
      During the festive period there will be some changes to our normal opening hours*. All times listed are in AEDT.
    Thursday 23 December Normal trading Friday 24 December US index futures close at 9am, along with most other out-of hours markets. US shares closed, early close in some equity markets. Early close on Australian shares(14:00).
    Saturday 25 December FX & Crypto closes at 9am
    Sunday 26 December Weekend Trading, including cryptos (19.00 Open) Monday 27 December AU shares closed, most other markets regular hours Tuesday 28 December AU shares closed, most other markets regular hours Wednesday 29 December Normal trading Thursday 30 December Normal trading Friday 31 December Early close on Australian shares(14:00). Saturday 1 January FX & Crypto and out-of-hours markets close at 9am.
    Sunday 2 January Weekend Trading, including cryptos (19.00 Open) Monday 3 January AU shares closed, most other markets regular hours Tuesday 4 January Normal trading  
    The following tables list the opening hours of our most popular markets over the coming month:
      Indices Market Friday 24 Dec Monday 27 Dec Tuesday 28 Dec Friday 31 Dec Monday 3 Jan FTSE® 100 Futures close 11.50pm
    Closed
    Quoted out-of-hours
    Closed
    Quoted out-of-hours
    Futures close 11.50pm
    Quoted out-of-hours 11.50pm-9am Saturday morning
    Closed
    Wall Street
    US 500
    US Tech 100
    US Russell 2000
    FANG index Closed Normal hours Normal hours
    Normal hours Normal hours Germany 40 Closed
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours until 9am Saturday morning
    Normal hours France 40 Futures close 00.05am Saturday morning
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Futures close 00.05am, quoted out-of-hours 00.05am-9am(Saturday morning) Normal hours EU Stocks 50 Closed
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours until 9am Saturday morning Normal hours Italy 40 Closed Normal hours Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours until 9am Saturday morning
    Normal hours Netherlands 25 Futures close 00.05am Saturday morning Normal hours Normal hours
    Futures close 00.05am, quoted out-of-hours 00.05am-9am(Saturday morning) Normal hours Spain 35 Closed
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours until 9am Saturday morning Normal hours Sweden 30 Closed
     
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours until 9am Saturday morning
    Normal hours Switzerland Blue Chip Closed
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours until 9am Saturday morning
    Normal hours Japan 225 Futures close 8.15am(Saturday morning) Normal hours Normal hours
    Normal hours Normal hours Hong Kong HS50
    China H-Shares Early close 3pm
    Closed, quoted out-of-hours Normal hours
    Early close 3pm
    Quoted out-of-hours 3pm-9am Saturday morning
    Normal hours Australia 200 Early close 2:10pm
     
    Closed, quoted out-of-hours Closed, quoted out-of-hours
    Early close 2.30pm
    Quoted out-of-hours 2.30pm-9am Saturday morning
    Closed Singapore Blue Chip Futures close 8.15am Saturday morning
    Normal hours Normal hours
    Normal hours
    Normal hours South Africa 40 Normal hours
    Closed,quoted out-of-hours Normal hours
    Normal hours
    Normal hours Volatility Index Closed Normal hours Normal hours
    Normal hours Normal hours  
     
    Shares Market Friday 24 Dec Monday 27 Dec Tuesday 28 Dec Friday 31 Dec Monday 3 Jan US shares Closed
    Open Open
    Open
    Open UK shares Early close at 11.30pm Closed Closed Early close at 11.30pm Closed French shares Early close at 00.05am Saturday morning Open Open Early close at 00.05am Saturday morning Open German shares Closed Open Open Closed Open Spanish shares Closed Open Open Closed Open AU shares Early close at 2.10pm Closed Closed Early close at 2.10pm Closed NZ shares Early close at 11am Closed Closed Early close at 11am Closed HK shares Early close at 3.10pm Closed Open Early close at 3.10pm Open JP shares Open Open Open Closed Closed SGX shares Early close at 3.16pm Open Open Early close at 3.16pm Open  
    Commodities Market Friday 24 Dec Monday 27 Dec Tuesday 28 Dec Friday 31 Dec Monday 3 Jan US energies Closed Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Normal Close Times UK energies Early close 00:00am Saturday morning Normal Close Times (except for Emissions which are closed) Normal Close Times (except for Emissions which are closed) Early close 7am(Saturday morning) Normal Close Times (except for Emissions which are closed) US metals Closed Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Normal Close Times
    Normal Close Times US CBOT Commodities Closed Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Normal Close Times US NYBOT commodities Closed Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa opens late at 11.30pm Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa opens late at 11.30pm UK Commodities Closed Closed Normal Close Times Normal Close Times Closed  
    Interest rates Market Friday 24 Dec Monday 27 Dec Tuesday 28 Dec Friday 31 Dec Monday 3 Jan US rates Closed Normal hours Normal hours Normal hours Normal hours UK rates Early close 11.15pm Closed Closed Early close 11.15pm Closed European rates Closed Normal hours Normal hours Closed Normal hours  
    We have tried to make this information as accurate as possible, but it is intended for guidance only and is subject to change. Please contact our Helpdesk on 0800 409 6789 for the latest information. What are IG's Christmas trading hours market details.
     
     

  17. MongiIG
    WHAT IS THE NUMBER ONE MISTAKE TRADERS MAKE?
    Big financial market volatility and growing access for the average person have made active trading very popular, but the influx of new traders has met with mixed success.
    There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money?
    Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing
    Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies.
    Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong.
    Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades.
    Before discussing how to solve this problem, it is a good idea to gain a better understanding of why traders tend to make this mistake in the first place.

    A SIMPLE WAGER – UNDERSTANDING DECISION MAKING VIA WINNING AND LOSING
    We as humans have natural and sometimes illogical tendencies which cloud our decision-making. We will draw on simple yet profound insight which earned a Noble Prize in Economics to illustrate this common shortfall. But first a thought experiment:
    What if I offered you a simple wager based on the classic flip of a coin? Assume it is a fair coin which is equally likely to show “Heads” or “Tails”, and I ask you to guess the result of a single flip.
    If you guess correctly, you win $1,000. Guess incorrectly, and you receive nothing. But to make things interesting, I give you Choice B—a sure $400 gain. Which would you choose?
        EXPECTED RETURN
    Choice A
    50% chance of $1000 & 50% chance of $0
    $500
    Choice B
    $400
    $400
    From a logical perspective, Choice A makes the most sense mathematically as you can expect to make $500 and thus maximize profit. Choice B isn’t wrong per se. With zero risk of loss you could not be faulted for accepting a smaller gain. And it goes without saying you stand the risk of making no profit whatsoever via Choice A—in effect losing the $400 offered in Choice B.
    It should then come as little surprise that similar experiments show most will choose “B”. When it comes to gains, we most often become risk averse and take the certain gain. But what of potential losses?
    Consider a different approach to the thought experiment. Using the same coin, I offer you equal likelihood of a $1,000 loss and $0 in Choice A. Choice B is a certain $400 loss. Which would you choose?
        EXPECTED RETURN
    Choice A
    50% chance of -$1000 & 50% chance of $0
    -$500
    Choice B
    -$400
    -$400
    In this instance, Choice B minimizes losses and thus is the logical choice. And yet similar experiments have shown that most would choose “A”. When it comes to losses, we become ‘risk seeking’. Most avoid risk when it comes to gains yet actively seek risk if it means avoiding a loss.
    A hypothetical coin flip exercise is hardly something to lose sleep over, but this natural human behavior and cognitive dissonance is clearly problematic if it extends to real-life decision making. And, it is indeed this dynamic which helps to explain one of the most common mistakes in trading.
    Losses hurt psychologically far more than gains give pleasure.
    Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky published what has been called a “seminal paper in behavioral economics” which showed that humans most often made irrational decisions when faced with potential gains and losses. Their work wasn’t specific to trading but has clear implications for our studies.
    The core concept was simple yet profound: most people make economic decisions not on expected utility but on their attitudes towards winning and losing. It was simply understood that a rational person would make decisions purely based on maximizing gains and minimizing losses, yet this is not the case; and this same inconsistency is seen in the real world with traders…
    We ultimately aim to turn a profit in our trades; but to do so, we must force ourselves to work past our natural emotions and act rationally in our trading decisions.
    If the ultimate goal were to maximize profits and minimize losses, a $500 gain would completely offset a $500 loss.
    This relationship is not linear, however; the illustration below gives us an approximate look at how most might rank their “Pleasure” and “Pain” derived from gains and losses.
    PROSPECT THEORY: LOSSES TYPICALLY HURT FAR MORE THAN GAINS GIVE PLEASURE

    Figure 3. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
    The negative feeling experienced from a $500 loss can be substantially more than the positive feeling experienced from a $500 gain, and experiencing both would leave most feeling worse despite causing no monetary loss.
    In practice, we need to find a way to straighten that utility curve—treat equivalent gains and losses as offsetting and thus become purely rational decision-makers. This is nonetheless far easier said than done.

    Figure 4. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
    A HIGH WIN PERCENTAGE SHOULD NOT BE THE PRIMARY GOAL
    Your primary goal should be to find trades which give you an edge and present an asymmetrical risk profile.
    This means your primary objective should be to achieve a robust “Risk/Reward” (R/R) ratio, which is simply the ratio of how much you have at risk versus how much you gain. Let’s say you are right about 50% of the time, a reasonable expectation. Your gains and losses need to have at least a 1:1 risk/reward ratio if you stand to at least break even.
    To tilt the math in your favor, a trader making money on roughly 50% of his/her trades needs to aim for a higher unit of reward versus risk, say 1.5:1 or even 2:1 or greater.
    Too many traders get hung up on trying to achieve a high win percentage, which is understandable when you think about the research we looked at earlier regarding loss aversion. And, in your own experiences you almost certainly recognize the fact that you don’t like losing. But from a logical standpoint, it isn’t realistic to expect to be right all the time. Losing is just part of the process, a fact that as a trader you must get comfortable with.
    It is more realistic and beneficial to achieve a 45% win rate with a 2:1 R/R ratio, than it is to be right on 65% of your trade ideas, but with only a 1:2 risk/reward profile. In the short run the gratification of “winning” more often may make you feel good, but over time not netting any gains will lead to frustration. And a frustrated mind will almost certainly lead to more mistakes.
    The following table illustrates the math well. Over the course of a 20 trade sample, you can see clearly how a favorable risk/reward profile coupled with more losers than winners can be more productive than an unfavorable risk/reward profile coupled with a much greater number of winners. The trader making money on 45% of trades with a 2:1 R:R profile comes out ahead, while the trader with the 65% win rate, but making only half as much on winners versus losers, comes out at a slight net-loss.
    Who would you rather be? The trader who ends up positive 7 units but loses more often than they win, or the one who ends up slightly negative but gets the gratification of “being right” more often. The choice appears to be easy.
    USE STOPS AND LIMITS – GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT
    Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading.
    A great way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. But don’t set them for the sake of setting them to achieve a specific ratio. You will want to still use your analysis to determine where the most logical prices are to place your stops and limit orders. Many traders use technical analysis, which allows them to identify points on the charts that may invalidate (trigger your stop-loss) or validate your trade (trigger the limit order). Determining your exit points ahead of time will help ensure you pursue the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset. Once you set them, don’t touch them. (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favour.)
    There will inevitably be times a trade moves against you, triggers your stop loss, and yet ultimately the market reverses in the direction of the trade you were just stopped out of. This can be a frustrating experience, but you have to remember this is a numbers game. Expecting a losing trade to turn in your favor every time exposes you to additional losses, perhaps catastrophic if large enough. To argue against stop losses because they force you to lose is very much self-defeating—this is their very purpose.
    Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. It is one thing to be on the right side of the market, but practicing poor money management makes it significantly more difficult to ultimately turn a profit.
     
    GAME PLAN: TYING IT ALL TOGETHER
    Trade with stops and limits set to a reward/risk ratio of 1:1, and preferably higher
    Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is, and again, as we stated previously, you should ideally aim for an even larger risk/reward ratio. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still net a positive return in your account.
    The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as the volatility, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 points away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 points or more away to achieve at least a 1:1 R/R ratio. If you have a stop level 500 points away, your profit target should be at least 500 points away.
    To summarize, get comfortable with the fact that losing is part of trading, set stop-losses and limits to define your risk ahead of time, and aim to achieve proper risk/reward ratios when planning out trades.
    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
     
    Article by Paul Robinson (Strategist), 19 July 2021. DailyFX
  18. MongiIG
    Wall Street gained for the second straight day, as US Treasury yields took a breather after touching their recent highs.
    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Indices United States United States dollar GBP/USD Federal Reserve
     Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Tuesday 29 August 2023  Market Recap
    Wall Street gained for the second straight day (DJIA +0.62%; S&P 500 +0.63%; Nasdaq +0.84%), as US Treasury yields took a breather despite a hawkish takeaway from the Jackson Hole Symposium. Both the US 2-year and 10-year yields cooled by around 5 basis-point (bp) overnight after touching their recent highs. The VIX has also hit its two-week low, potentially as hedging bets unwind from greater clarity on the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s policy outlook. Amid the quiet economic calendar to start the week, market focus will now turn to a series of macro data ahead to justify whether a November rate hike from the Fed is warranted.
    Today’s schedule will leave Germany and US consumer confidence data on watch, along with the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), where further moderation in US July job opening numbers is expected (9.465 million forecast versus 9.582 million prior). The US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index will be in focus as well, with US home prices expected to mark its fourth straight month of year-on-year decline (-1.3% forecast versus -1.7% prior).
    Perhaps one to watch may be the Russell 2000, which has been attempting to defend its 200-day moving average (MA) over the past week. Further upside may validate a bullish crossover on its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) on the daily chart, with immediate resistance to overcome at the 1,900 level. On the broader scale, the index remains stuck in a long-ranging pattern since April 2022, with any move above the 1,900 level potentially leaving its upper bound at the key psychological 2,000 level on watch for a retest next.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Asia Open
    Asian stocks look set for a positive open, with Nikkei +0.50%, ASX +0.45% and KOSPI +0.34% at the time of writing. Lower Treasury yields, a slightly weaker US dollar and the positive handover from Wall Street provide room for some relief in the region, despite lingering reservations surrounding Chinese equities.
    Beijing’s latest efforts to boost markets has been met with a lukewarm reaction, with gains in Chinese equities fizzling into the close yesterday. The Hang Seng Index was up as much as 3% at one point, but closed only 0.9% higher. Similar measure in 2008 eventually saw the CSI 300 move to form a new low, suggesting that a turnaround in economic conditions remains the key driving force for longer-term upside in Chinese equities.
    This morning saw Japan’s July unemployment rate head higher to 2.7% from previous 2.5% (forecast 2.5%), with the sharper moderation in Japan’s labour market likely to provide more room for dovishness for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) by having a taming effect on wage pressures. For now, the USD/JPY has breached the 145.00-145.80 level, where previous yen-buying intervention was executed back in September 2022. While the overall trend remains up with a rising channel pattern in place, some near-term exhaustion seems to be in place, with a flat-lined MACD and lower highs on its relative strength index (RSI) from the daily chart. The 145.00 level will be an immediate support to hold, failing which may pave the way to retest the 141.60 level next.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    On the watchlist: GBP/USD retesting neckline of head-and-shoulder formation
    The GBP/USD has retraced by close to 4.5% since mid-July this year, further weighed by weaker-than-expected purchasing manager’s index (PMI) data out of the UK and some firming in the US dollar last week to retest its 1.260 level. On the broader scale, the 1.260 level seems to mark the neckline of a head-and-shoulder formation, with an attempt to stabilise after recent sell-off. Its weekly RSI continues to trade above the 50 level for now, which could still put an upward trend in place, but any failure to defend the 1.260 level over the coming days may potentially pave the way to retest the 1.231 level next.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Monday: DJIA +0.62%; S&P 500 +0.63%; Nasdaq +0.84%, DAX +1.03%, FTSE +0.07%
  19. MongiIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By MongiIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
      Week commencing 24 July
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    This week is again dominated by earnings season in the US, which continues with technology companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel. Rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank’s (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the latter part of the week will also be closely monitored. Flash purchasing managers index (PMI), consumer sentiment, US and French preliminary second quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) as well as German consumer price index (CPI) and US personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) price inflation data will likely add some volatility to the mix.
    Economic reports
    Weekly view Monday
    1.30am – Japan PMI (July, flash): manufacturing to rise to 50 and services to drop to 53.4. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
    8.30am – Germany PMI (July, flash): manufacturing to fall to 40 and services to weaken to 52.9. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    9am – eurozone PMI (July, flash): manufacturing to fall to 42.8 and services to fall to 51.5. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    9.30am – UK PMI (July, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 46 and services to fall to 53. Markets to watch:
    1.45 – US Chicago Fed index (June): index to rise to 0.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    2.45pm – US PMI (July, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 46 and services to weaken to 54. Markets to watch:
     
    Tuesday
    9am – German IFO index (July): index to fall to 86.6 from 88.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    3pm – US consumer confidence (July): index to rise to 113 from 109.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
     
    Wednesday
    2.30am – Australia inflation (Q2): prices to rise 6.3% YoY from 7% and 1.1% from 1.4% QoQ. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    3pm – US new home sales (June): sales to fall 4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 21 July): stockpiles fell by 70.1 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    7pm – FOMC rate decision: US interest rates expected to rise to 5.5% from 5.25%. Press conference at 7.30pm. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
     
    Thursday
    7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): index to rise to -24. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates to rise to 4.25%. Press conference at 1.45pm, which may provide further detail on the outlook. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, advance), durable goods orders (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 22 July): GDP to rise 1.9% QoQ, from 2% in Q1. Durable goods orders to rise 1% and fall 0.1% excluding transportation. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3pm – US pending home sales (June): sales to rise 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
     
    Friday
    4am – Bank of Japan rate decision: rates to be held at 0.1%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
    1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): prices to rise 6.1% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 6.4% and 0.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30pm – US PCE price index (June): core PCE price index to rise 0.2%, from 0.3% in May. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
     
     
    Monday
    24 July
    Tuesday
    25 July
    Wednesday
    26 July
    Thursday
    27 July
    Friday
    28 July
    Full-year earnings
              Half/ Quarterly earnings
    Moneysupermarket.com,
    Philips,
    Ryanair Unilever,
    Deutsche Boerse,
    Alstom,
    Spotify,
    Alphabet,
    Microsoft,
    Visa,
    General Motors,
    Verizon,
    Snap British American Tobacco,
    Rio Tinto,
    Lloyds,
    GSK,
    Just Eat Takeaway,
    Stellantis,
    Carrefour,
    Deutsche Bank,
    Airbus,
    Boeing,
    Coca-Cola,
    AT&T BT,
    Shell,
    Barclays,
    TotalEnergies,
    Volkswagen,
    Nestle,
    Intel,
    Ford,
    McDonalds AstraZeneca,
    Standard Chartered,
    NatWest,
    IAG,
    Air France-KLM,
    Sanofi,
    Chevron,
    Procter & Gamble Trading update*
    Vodafone          
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: SSE
    FTSE 250: Qinetiq, NB Private Equity, Monks Inv Trust, Bankers Inv Trust, City of London Inv Trust
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    17 July Tuesday
    18 July Wednesday
    19 July Thursday
    20 July Friday
    21 July Monday
    24 July FTSE 100             Australia 200 0.4           Wall Street   8.6 6.2       US 500   0.08 0.44   0.08 0.08 Nasdaq     0.01       Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50         2.4   China H-Shares         1.3   Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50         2.4   South Africa 40             Italy 40         110.0   Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
    * Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
  20. MongiIG

    Economic Calendar Poll

    By MongiIG,


    Product Update
    Your Poll vote matters:
    Hello IG Community! We are working towards revamping the IG economic calendar, giving it new and improved features.
    Why? We strive to provide our clients with a good user trading experience, therefore your feedback is important to us and we will pass on your feedback to our development team. 
    Your poll vote matters! We would appreciate it if you could take part in the poll as we are continuously working on adding more features to our IG economic calendar to make your trading experience better. 

    Economic Calendar
    Use the economic calendar to explore key global events on the horizon that could subtly shift or substantially shake up the financial markets. Using the Economic Calendar
    An economic calendar is fully customizable, helping you keep track of the exact data you’re interested in. Select specific time zones and currencies of interest and apply filters to refine results and fit your strategy.
    Prefer commodities, stocks or indices? Our economic calendar showcases relevant events to help you trade these markets too. You can also dig deeper into global financial trends and events with our latest news and analysis articles. 
     

    Thank you very much for sharing your valuable & useful feedback. Here at IG we want to make sure your suggestions or feedback help shape our direction and future.
    We appreciate that the best businesses are built around two-way communication with clients. If you have other feedback or suggestions and time to spare, please write to us and comment on this blog for other economic calendar features you would like to be added,
    We would love to hear from you!
     
    All the best - MongiIG

     
  21. MongiIG

    How Central Banks Impact the Forex Market

    By MongiIG,


    Analyst piece
    THE ROLE OF CENTRAL BANKS IN THE FOREX MARKET
    Central banks are mainly responsible for maintaining inflation in the interest of sustainable economic growth while contributing to the overall stability of the financial system. When central banks deem it necessary they will intervene in financial markets in line with the defined “Monetary Policy Framework”. The implementation of such policy is highly monitored and anticipated by forex traders seeking to take advantage of resulting currency movements.
    This article focuses on the roles of the major central banks and how their policies affect the global forex market.
    WHAT IS A CENTRAL BANK?
    Central Banks are independent institutions utilized by nations around the world to assist in managing their commercial banking industry, set central bank interest rates and promote financial stability throughout the country.
    Central banks intervene in the financial market by making use of the following:
    Open market operations: Open market operations (OMO) describes the process whereby governments buy and sell government securities (bonds) in the open market, with the aim of expanding or contracting the amount of money in the banking system. The central bank rate: The central bank rate, often referred to as the discount, or federal funds rate, is set by the monetary policy committee with the intention of increasing or decreasing economic activity. This may seem counter-intuitive, but an overheating economy leads to inflation and this is what central banks aim to maintain at a moderate level. Central banks also act as a lender of last resort. If a government has a modest debt to GDP ratio and fails to raise money through a bond auction, the central bank can lend money to the government to meet its temporary liquidity shortage.
    Having a central bank as the lender of last resort increases investor confidence. Investors are more at ease that governments will meet their debt obligations and this heps to lower government borrowing costs.
    FX traders can monitor central bank announcements via the central bank calendar
    MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS
    Federal Reserve Bank (United States)
    The Federal Reserve Bank or “The Fed” presides over the most widely traded currency in the world according to the Triennial Central Bank Survey, 2016. Actions of The Fed have implications not only for the US dollar but for other currencies as well, which is why actions of the bank are observed with great interest. The Fed targets stable prices, maximum sustainable employment and moderate long-term interest rates.
    European Central Bank (European Union)
    The European central bank (ECB) is like no other in that it serves as the central bank for all member states in the European Union. The ECB prioritizes safeguarding the value of the Euro and maintaining price stability. The Euro is the second most circulated currency in the world and therefore, generates close attention by forex traders.
    Bank of England
    The Bank of England operates as the UK’s central bank and has two objectives: monetary stability and financial stability. The UK operates using a Twin Peaks model when regulating the financial industry with the one “peak” being the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the other the Prudential Regulating Authority (PRA). The Bank of England prudentially regulates financial services by requiring such firms to hold sufficient capital and have adequate risk controls in place.
    Bank of Japan
    The Bank of Japan has prioritized price stability and stable operations of payment and settlement systems. The Bank of Japan has held interest rates below zero (negative interest rates) in a drastic attempt to revitalize the economy. Negative interest rates allow individuals to get paid to borrow money, but investors are disincentivised to deposit funds as this will incur a charge.
    CENTRAL BANK RESPONSIBILITIES
    Central banks have been established to fulfil a mandate in order to serve the public interest. While responsibilities may differ between countries, the main responsibilities include the following:
    1) Achieve and maintain price stability: Central banks are tasked with protecting the value of their currency. This is done by maintaining a modest level of inflation in the economy.
    2) Promoting financial system stability: Central banks subject commercial banks to a series of stress testing to reduce systemic risk in the financial sector.
    3) Fostering balanced and sustainable growth in an economy: In general, there are two main avenues in which a country can stimulate its economy. These are through Fiscal policy (government spending) or monetary policy (central bank intervention). When governments have exhausted their budgets, central banks are still able to initiate monetary policy in an attempt to stimulate the economy.
    4) Supervising and regulating financial institutions: Central banks are tasked with the duty of regulating and supervising commercial banks in the public interest.
    5) Minimize unemployment: Apart from price stability and sustainable growth, central banks may have an interest in minimising unemployment. This is one of the goals from the Federal Reserve.
    CENTRAL BANKS AND INTEREST RATES
    Central banks set the central bank interest rate, and all other interest rates that individuals experience on personal loans, home loans, credit cards etc, emanate from this base rate. The central bank interest rate is the interest rate that is charged to commercial banks looking to borrow money from the central bank on an overnight basis.
    This effect of central bank interest rates is depicted below with the commercial banks charging a higher rate to individuals than the rate they can secure with the central bank.
    Commercial banks need to borrow funds from the central bank in order to comply with a modern form of banking called Fractional Reserve Banking. Banks accept deposits and make loans meaning they need to ensure that there is sufficient cash to service daily withdrawals, while lending the rest of depositors’ money to businesses and other investors that require cash. The bank generates revenue through this process by charging a higher interest rate on loans while paying lower rates to depositors.
    Central banks will define the specific percentage of all depositors’ funds (reserve) that banks are required to set aside, and should the bank fall short of this, it can borrow from the central bank at the overnight rate, which is based on the annual central bank interest rate.
    FX traders monitor central bank rates closely as they can have a significant impact on the forex market. Institutions and investors tend to follow yields (interest rates) and therefore, changes in these rates will result in traders channeling investment towards countries with higher interest rates.
    HOW CENTRAL BANKS IMPACT THE FOREX MARKET
    Forex traders often assess the language used by the chairman of the central bank to look for clues on whether the central bank is likely to increase or decrease interest rates. Language that is interpreted to suggest an increase/decrease in rates is referred to as Hawkish/Dovish. These subtle clues are referred to as “forward guidance” and have the potential to move the forex market.
    Traders that believe the central bank is about to embark on an interest rate hiking cycle will place a long trade in favour of that currency, while traders anticipating a dovish stance from the central bank will look to short the currency.
    For more information on this mechanism, read, “Interest Rates and the Forex Market”
    Movements in central bank interest rates present traders with opportunities to trade based on the interest rate differential between two country’s currencies via a carry trade. Carry traders look to receive overnight interest for trading a high yielding currency against a low yielding currency.
    LEARN MORE ABOUT FOREX FUNDAMENTALS
    DailyFX provides a dedicated central bank calendar showing all the scheduled central bank rate announcements for major central banks. Keep up to date with crucial central bank announcements or data releases happening this week via our economic calendar. Data releases have the ability to make significant moves in the FX market but with increased volatility, it is important to manage your risk accordingly by learning how to trade the news. To learn more about forex trading and get your foot in the door of successful trading, download our free New to Forex guide. By Richard Snow, Analyst, 13th August 2021. DailyFX
    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
    DISCLOSURES
  22. MongiIG
    With Tesla’s share price surging more than 17% over the past week, what may be on watch?
    Source: Bloomberg   Car Automotive industry Electric vehicle Climate change Revenue Technical analysis  Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 27 October 2021  What is propelling Tesla’s share price this week
    Tesla has seen a surge as high as 19% over the past two trading days, supported by positive news flow with Hertz's order of 100,000 Tesla cars to be delivered by the end of 2022. This may potentially bring about $4.2 billion of revenue for Tesla, which translates to 8.97% of its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue and 12.4% of its LTM total vehicle deliveries. Therefore, it seems that the deal may aid to cement Tesla’s growth in the upcoming year. Positive sentiments were also riding on expectations that the massive order could possibly drive a further shift into electric vehicle (EV) adoption for the automobile industry.
    What else to watch?
    The upcoming Conference of the Parties 26 (COP26) summit will kick off towards the end of the week, where several world leaders will discuss tackling climate change. As per previous summits, the pressure for countries to do more will continue to be emphasised. That may bring about headlines regarding several environmental commitments or calls-to-action for countries. With more mitigation pledges to achieve net-zero targets by countries, such as China’s aim to be carbon-neutral by 2060, some near-term traction for clean energy stocks could emerge.
    Its recent third quarter (Q3) results also saw a beat on both unit sales and net profit, although lower average selling prices (ASPs) are putting a cap on revenue. Automotive margins continue to trend higher, suggesting that cost control measures are aiding to keep inflationary pressures under control for now. That said, supply chain issues are expected to linger for longer, and rising costs will continue to be a key risk to watch ahead. The pocket for optimism is that Tesla’s margins are higher than the industry average, which suggests that it may be better able to cope with rising cost pressures than its automobile peers.
     
    Source: Tesla Inc Tesla’s valuation
    Tesla’s forward EV/sales currently stand at 15.1, commanding a significant premium over the automobiles industry average of 7.8. This may come as markets have been pricing in for higher growth to continue for the years ahead, with its five-year historical revenue growth of 50.8% towering above the automobiles industry of 13.4%. Markets are also pricing in several competitive advantages, such as being the first-mover in the EV space, along with a wide addressable market to ride on for future growth.
    Tesla shares – technical analysis
    Tesla’s share price has registered a new record high this week, after breaking out of an ascending channel pattern back in May 2021. That said, overnight movement seems to form a bearish shooting star candlestick, as initial gains were pared back throughout yesterday’s trading session. The key $1,000 psychological level will be a near-term support level to watch. A subsequent close below this level may potentially bring about a near-term retracement to retest the key $900 level next. In terms of resistance, the Fibonacci 161.8% extension level suggests that the $1,120 level may be one to watch.
     
    Source: IG Charts
  23. MongiIG
    ARTICLE 16 EXPLAINER:
    UK-EU Tensions Rise Over Northern Ireland Protocol. UK to Trigger Article 16 Should Talks Fail, Raising Trade War Risks.
    OVERVIEW
    Tensions between the UK and EU have been on the rise in recent weeks, as both parties have yet to resolve their differences over the Northern Ireland Protocol. In turn, should the UK and EU fail to bridge the gap in talks, the UK have threatened to trigger Article 16.
    WHAT IS ARTICLE 16?
    Article 16 deals with issues related to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The protocol, which is a part of the EU-UK withdrawal agreement, prevents a return of a north-south trade border on the island of Ireland. As a result of the protocol, Northern Ireland has remained in the EU’s single market for goods and therefore, the UK is required to apply regulatory checks on select goods moving from GB to NI, protecting the integrity of the EU’s single market.
    On Article 16, this is a safeguard measure, which states that if the protocol leads to serious “economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist or to diversion of trade” then the UK or EU can take unilateral action to limit the aspect of the protocol at fault.
    UK’S STANCE
    Back in July, the UK issued a command paper, setting out its proposed changes to the NI protocol. In the paper, it stated that the protocol in its current form was causing serious economic and societal difficulties as well as creating a diversion of trade and thus provides justification for the UK to invoke Article 16.
    AREAS THAT THE UK WISH TO CHANGE
    The UK wish to reduce the number of checks and the number of goods that require checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Now while the EU has shown a willingness to compromise on this, the biggest area for contention is the role of the European Court of Justice, which the UK wants to remove from enforcing elements of the protocol. Oversight of the ECJ is a red line for the UK and an area that the EU have to provide next to no compromise with. Therefore, the decision on the role of the ECJ will be crucial as to whether progress on talks has been made or not.
    WHAT IF TALKS FAIL?
    Should talks fail, Article 16 is likely to be triggered and checks across the Ireland board is suspended, which in turn would threaten the integrity of the EU single market. Subsequently, the UK can be expected to face a retaliatory response from the EU, raising the risk of an all-out UK-EU trade war. Much like the Brexit saga, it seems that tensions will get worse before the light is reached at the end of the tunnel, therefore, political risk premium is likely to be on the rise for the Pound, meaning that the currency’s sensitivity to headlines will increase.
    USING TWITTER FOR TRADING UK POLITICS
    That being said, I would recommend following my curated Twitter list, to help on top of the latest UK politics, while also on occasions providing a speed advantage. The example showcases how efficiently using Twitter can provide an edge to short-term traders.
    During the Brexit saga, the first point of communication for many political correspondents had been via Twitter. This meant that traders who followed high ranking journalists that typically received the latest scoop from the halls of Westminister had a speed advantage over BBG/Refinitiv owners. The example below shows one of many occasions where Twitter had been quicker to report breaking Brexit news. Of course, the risk was the authenticity/reliability of the headlines, however, this was largely dependent on the journalist who tweeted the report.
    On October 1st, 2020, a political correspondent tweeted that the probability of a Brexit deal had shifted from 30% to 70%. As such, in the near 4-minutes, before the tweet crossed the wires (Refinitiv), GBP/USD rose from 1.2841 to 1.2871 before taking a fresh leg higher from 1.2871 to 1.2976 in 36-minutes after the tweet had been picked up by Refinitiv.

    Source: Bloomberg
    Justin McQueen, Strategy, 11th November 2021. DailyFX
  24. MongiIG

    ProRealTime Client Sentiment Indicator

    By MongiIG,


    Product Update
    How to use ProRealTime client sentiment indicator.

    Alongside technical and fundamental analysis, client sentiment data can be a useful additional tool for a trader, if they know how to read the changes in positioning.

    Client sentiment, which looks at the number of long and short trades on a particular market, is a useful tool in a trading strategy. It is often said that clients look to sell into rising markets and buy into falling ones. There is an element of truth to this, but it is also important to look at turning points in sentiment, when the number of long positions begins to rise or fall. When combined with price analysis, the foundation of all good trading, a useful picture can emerge.
     
    How to add the ProRealTime client sentiment indicator.
    1. Right click on chart and the select "Add indicator"

     
    2. Or select indicators bottom left corner of the chart.

     
    3. Then search for client sentiment indicator and select it to add.

     
    ProRealTime client sentiment indicator settings.
    1. Client sentiment settings for uptrend (green color/long positions) and downtrend (red color/short positions).

     
    2. Horizontal lines settings: sentiment indicators are numeric or graphic representations of how optimistic or pessimistic traders are about market conditions. This can refer to the percentage of trades that have taken a given position in a currency pair. For example, 70% of traders going long and 30% going short will simply mean 70% of traders are long on the currency pair.

     
    3. Color zones settings.

     
    4. Scale settings.

     
    5. Chart settings.

     
    6. Client sentiment indicator window panel.

     
    For more information visit the following link: ProRealTime
    Also share and comment down below on how you use client sentiment indicator in your trading strategy. 
     
    All the best - MongiIG

  25. MongiIG

    Three Easy Ways to Buy Gold and Silver

    By MongiIG,


    Analyst Piece
    Jan 31, 2022 By Frank Kaberna, tastytrade.
    The descent in metals following last week’s FOMC could present an interesting opportunity for those looking to add long gold and silver exposure to their portfolio or at least try their hand at trading this unique asset class diversified from equities on a historical extreme.
     

    Futures have long been a low-cost, direct route to gaining precious metal investment without having to either physically own the commodity or pay a high capital requirement (50-100% of investment) for an exchange-traded fund or note. The relatively new Small Metals (SPRE®) futures let you access gold, silver, and platinum in one order that costs less than traditional and Micro Gold and Silver futures.
     

     
    Buying a Market with Long Calls

    The long call option can give you close to 1-for-1 exposure in the underlying market if that market’s price is higher than your strike’s, and your loss potential is simply the amount you paid for the call. However, you trade probability of success for a defined amount of risk in this strategy in what is called the premium on the option.

     
    Buying a Market with Short Puts

    The short put option can give you close to 1-for-1 exposure in the underlying market if that market’s price is lower than your strike’s, and you take near-full ownership as long as the market exists below your put strike. Since you are on the short side of options, however, your probability of success is boosted north of 50% given you are the seller of option premium. That said, you stand to lose exposure, the premium, and more as the underlying market rises.

     
    Derivatives offer different ways to profit from the same old markets you hear about daily, and each derivative - futures, calls, puts - comes with its own tradeoffs. Gain exposure to gold, silver, and more in the way that best suits your portfolio.
     

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