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While markets continue to expect US rate cuts this year, it does look like the case for easing policy is becoming weaker. Source: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Personal consumption expenditures price index Inflation United States Economic growth Stock market Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 04 April 2024 16:11 Stronger data weakens case for US rate ctus While June is still viewed as a likely point for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points (62.1% chance according to the CME FedWatch tool, as of April 3rd), the arguments for continuing to hold rates unchanged remain strong. Source: CME website The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation measure targeted by the Fed, showed an acceleration in recent months after appearing stable late last year. The headline PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month in February, while the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% as well, suggesting annual inflation could move above 4% if repeated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the increase, calling it "along the lines of what we would like to see" and saying the Fed won't overreact, but the bond market sold off in response. Economic data like the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index pointed to strengthening demand and pricing power, contradicting narratives of slowing growth that would justify rate cuts. The Atlanta Fed revised up its gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for first quarter (Q1) 2024 to 2.8%, further distancing the prospects of near-term rate cuts. Market expectations have shifted, now pricing in the Fed's terminal rate settling around 3.6% by 2027, much higher than the Fed's 2.6% longer-run projection. The combination of firming inflation and economic resilience makes imminent rate cuts less likely and creates challenges, especially for regions like the eurozone which must contend with weaker economic growth than that seen in the US. What does this mean for markets? If the Fed does swerve a rate cut in June, it may be a cause for disappointment for equity markets. A commonly-held view is that the rally from November has been built on hopes of a Fed rate cut, and not much else. This is wrong – the improvement in earnings and the solidity of US economic data has been the real driver here. But stocks do remain vulnerable to a short-term sell-off. US indices (and several European ones) have had an astonishingly quiet few months. As an example, the S&P 500 hasn’t had a 2% drop since October. Pullbacks happen, and investors need to remember that markets go up AND down, not up OR down. Source: Compound Capital Advisors A short-term period of weakness in stocks could deliver the kind of dip many are waiting for. It would certainly be ‘healthy’ – markets should correct from time to time. It would not be surprising to see the VIX and dollar both rise in the aftermath of a ‘hold’ from the Fed, particularly if the commentary around the decision refers to fears of resurgent inflation. A ‘hold’ in June would not be likely to cause a major market decline – for that we’d need the Fed to declare it was moving to raise rates again, but there could be a decent wobble in stocks if the Fed continues to step away from the idea of rate cuts in 2024. If history is any guide we should continue to see global stock markets make headway, so long as earnings remain supportive. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Technical overview continues to struggle on the daily time frame even as it matches the weekly’s ‘bull average’, while traders both large and small are in majority short territory. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Nasdaq Inflation Nasdaq-100 Purchasing Managers' Index Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Thursday 04 April 2024 07:18 FOMC commentary and rate cut speculations There was plenty of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members speaking. The attention was largely on Chairman Powell. He did not stick to a timeline on rate cuts, stating it's "too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump" when referring to inflation. Bostic mentioned a potential rate cut, but only in the fourth quarter of this year. Kugler expects the disinflationary path to continue but did not specify when the first interest rate reduction in the current cycle would start. Barr commented on the resilience of the banking system. Economic data and market reactions Market pricing (CME's FedWatch) doesn’t need much to no longer anticipate a rate cut this June. It is pricing in fewer cuts next year, aiding the ‘higher for longer’ narrative. As for Treasury yields, they finished the session little changed but edged higher on the further end and slightly so in real terms. Breakeven inflation rates are holding at/near recent higher levels. Economic data out of the US showed the services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for March was a miss, dropping to 51.4. It remains in expansionary territory according to ISM (Institute for Supply Management). Its employment component is still sub-50. New orders dropped to 54.4, and prices paid decreased from 58.6 to 53.4. S&P Global's survey held at 51.7. Before this, ADP's non-farm estimate showed growth of 184K for March, besting forecasts. This comes prior to tomorrow's market-moving Non-Farm Payrolls reading, expected to be around 200K. As for today, the focus is on the weekly claims and trade data for February. More FOMC members are speaking today and tomorrow. Wall Street: winners, losers, and surprise moves Sector performance by the close put communication on top. There were small gains for both consumer discretionary and tech. The results were not necessarily strong but helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 on IG’s trading app and platform) avoid a red finish. This contrasted with the Dow 30, and in percentage terms, Nasdaq did better than the S&P 500. Component performance by the close put Intel at the very bottom, with foundry business losses mounting. At the top was Micron Technology, with Warner Bros Discovery and Netflix not far off. In a session where (non-component) Disney was in retreat, this occurred after Peltz's Trian Partners failed to get a seat on the company's board. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels When it comes to its price action, it lacked a play yesterday. The intraday highs and lows were within Wednesday’s 1st levels, keeping both conformist and contrarian strategies at bay. Key technical indicators are mostly neutral in the daily time frame. They are largely positive on the weekly. Price action within a positive channel has kept its overview ‘bull average’. Here, buying on dips comes with caution for those in the conformist camp. Source: IG IG client and CoT sentiment for the Nasdaq As for sentiment, slight price gains have naturally taken the retail traders' majority sell bias slightly higher, to 59% this morning from 57% yesterday. They continue to hold a significant short position in both the S&P 500 (at 68%) and the Dow 30 (at 65%). CoT speculators recently shifted from a slight buy at 54% to a slight sell at 53%, according to last Friday’s report, where positioning is as of last Tuesday. We’ll get the latest figures tomorrow to see whether they’ve opted to remain in majority short territory. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 6am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Asian shares rose overnight, with the Nikkei gaining 1.6%, as the Japanese yen weakened against major currencies. The yen's decline is seen as safe by investors, given the threat of intervention capping the dollar's rise versus the yen at 152. Currencies like the Canadian dollar hit 16-year highs against the yen, aided by higher oil prices. Commodities like copper and gold also rallied, with copper reaching a 13-month peak, potentially boosted by China's measures to promote auto sales and EV purchases. Gold topped $2,300 an ounce, attracting momentum buyers concerned about rising government debt levels. The oil price rise could exacerbate inflation pressures for central banks. OPEC+ maintained its output cuts, while Fed Chair Powell reiterated rate cuts are coming if data allows. However, Fed officials giving speeches on Thursday may differ on the rate outlook. Market pricing suggests a June start to Fed cuts is expected, though the anticipated pace and depth of cuts has moderated. Treasury yield rises hint at a higher neutral rate perception. Upcoming US data on jobless claims today and nonfarm payrolls tomorrow will be closely watched.

The Japanese yen remains near its 34-year low of around 151.95 per US dollar hit last week, despite repeated warnings from Tokyo about the yen's slide. The Japanese finance minister reiterated warnings to yen bears on Tuesday as Japan tries to prevent a destabilizing currency fall. While initially shocked by stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data raising doubts about Fed rate cut timing, markets seem to be taking evidence of economic strength in their stride. Investors remain wary of a higher-for-longer rates narrative, but most analysts think the Fed is more concerned with easing inflation and the labour market. European stock markets are set for a higher open after holidays, with the STOXX 600 index closing at a record last week. Investors will watch European manufacturing and inflation data to assess the economy's health and the ECB's likely rate path. A growing number of ECB policymakers support rate cuts, with June seen as the most likely timing according to economists polled by Reuters.

Australian shares hit new record highs as weaker-than-expected domestic inflation brought forward rate cut expectations while those in China and Hong Kong also advanced. In Europe and the U.S. stock indices also rallied with the DAX 40 and S&P 500 hitting new record highs despite hawkish comments by Fed member Waller who stated that the central bank is in "no rush" to cut rates. The U.S. dollar appreciated slightly with all eyes now on tomorrow's US PCE data release, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 7.30pm on Friday which may provide volatility in thinly traded markets due to the Easter break.

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Bitcoin's recent 12% surge eyes a record high pre-halving, as Ethereum lags. Coinbase shares soar, mirroring crypto market's upbeat momentum. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Bitcoin Coinbase Cryptocurrency Ethereum Written by: Nick Cawley | Analyst, DailyFX, London Publication date: Wednesday 27 March 2024 06:04 Bitcoin has rallied by around 12% since Sunday’s opening print, as demand for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continues to increase prices. A technical, bullish, break of a short-term descending channel now suggests that Bitcoin will attempt to make a fresh record high in the near-term and likely ahead of next month’s halving event. Any pullbacks will find initial support around $69k before just under $65k comes into focus. The Average True Range (ATR) reading is at a multi-month high, while the CCI indicator shows Bitcoin nearing overbought territory. The chart set-up suggests Bitcoin will move higher over the coming days but a short-term turn lower cannot be discounted. Bitcoin daily price chart Source: TradingView Ethereum is also pushing higher but continues to lag Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has already made a new ATH, Ethereum remains around 30% its peak and is struggling to regain its mid-March multi-month high of around $4,100. The proposed Ethereum spot ETFs look like they will not be approved by May 23rd – the Van Eck ETF deadline date – and this is weighing on the cash Ethereum price. With the ETF potential approval being pushed further out, Ethereum may struggle to match Bitcoin’s performance over the coming weeks. Any further move higher will likely be kept in check by the mid-March high. Ethereum daily price chart Source: TradingView Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US continues to benefit from the increased interest, and turnover, in the space. Coinbase shares are back at highs last seen in December 2021 and remain a proxy for overall crypto-market performance. Coinbase is trading around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2021 – January 2023 sell-off and targets the 78.6% retracement level at $343. Support on the weekly chart is seen at the 50% retracement level at $230. Coinbase weekly price chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Explore the latest market trends and sentiment indicators for the Japanese yen against major currencies. Unravel the intricacies of EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY. Source: Bloomberg Forex Market trend Japanese yen Technical analysis AUD/JPY GBP/JPY Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Wednesday 27 March 2024 06:46 In the world of trading, it's easy to get swept up in the herd mentality, buying when everyone else is buying and selling in a frenzy of fear. But savvy traders understand the potential of contrarian thinking. Indicators like IG client sentiment offer a unique window into market psychology, revealing when excessive optimism or pessimism may create ripe opportunities to go against the prevailing trend. Of course, contrarian indicators aren't a magical crystal ball. They're best used as a valuable tool within a well-rounded trading strategy. By blending contrarian insights with robust technical and fundamental analysis, traders gain a richer understanding of market dynamics that may be overlooked by the crowd. Let's explore this concept further by examining how IG client sentiment can shed light on the Japanese yen's potential. EUR/JPY technical analysis IG client data highlights the retail crowd is overwhelmingly bearish on EUR/JPY, with 71.61% of traders holding net-short positions. This translates to a short-to-long ratio of 2.52 to 1. While this net-short positioning aligns with our typical contrarian approach (suggesting potential for a price rise), recent shifts in sentiment create a more nuanced picture. Compared to yesterday, traders are slightly less bearish, with the number of net-long positions up 3.88%. Yet, looking back to last week, the number of net-long positions has surged by 60.67%, indicating a substantial increase in bets in favor of the euro over that timeframe. This combination of factors—current net-short positioning alongside a recent easing of bearish sentiment— brings ambiguity to our contrarian analysis of EUR/JPY, leading to a mixed outlook. That said, the market may still have room to push higher, but traders should exercise caution. Key takeaway: Even reliable tools like contrarian indicators can sometimes produce conflicting signals. In these situations, it's essential to prioritize a holistic approach, utilizing technical analysis and fundamental factors alongside sentiment data to gain a clearer understanding of potential price movements. EUR/JPY daily chart Source: IG GBP/JPY technical analysis IG client sentiment data reveals a net-short bias towards the GBP/JPY, with 64.9% of retail traders holding bearish positions. This translates into a short-to-long ratio of 1.85 to 1. In our contrarian framework, this typically implies there may be room for GBP/JPY to climb further. However, recent sentiment shifts complicate this outlook. The number of net-long positions has increased significantly compared to yesterday (15.22%) and even more dramatically compared to last week (68.79%). This suggests growing bullishness among retail traders, despite the overall net-short positioning. This weakening of the bearish sentiment introduces uncertainty. While the GBP/JPY may continue its upward trek, the shift could foreshadow a potential reversal. The market might be losing its conviction, making the contrarian signal less reliable. Key takeaway: Contrarian indicators are most powerful when market sentiment is strongly skewed in one direction. The recent changes in GBP/JPY sentiment cloud the picture, suggesting increased caution. It's advisable to incorporate thorough technical analysis and monitor key fundamental drivers impacting price action before relying solely on the contrarian signal. Source: IG AUD/JPY technical analysis IG client sentiment data paints a complex picture for the AUD/JPY. While a majority of retail traders (58.88%) remain net-short, this figure represents a decrease compared to both yesterday and last week. The ratio of short to long positions currently stands at 1.43 to 1. Typically, we view heavy net-short positioning as a contrarian indicator, implying the potential for a price rise. In this case, AUD/JPY may have room to run a little higher. However, the recent weakening of bearish positioning introduces an element of uncertainty and can be tentatively foreshadowing a reversal. Key takeaway: It's crucial to recognize that contrarian signals, while valuable, aren't infallible. The AUD/JPY situation highlights the importance of combining contrarian insights with technical analysis, fundamental drivers, and overall market context. This multifaceted approach will provide a more robust understanding of the potential price direction. AUD/JPY daily chart Source: IG This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

US dollar remains rangebound ahead of key events; Friday's PCE data and Powell's speech set to influence markets amid anticipated thin liquidity due to Bank holiday. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar USD/JPY EUR/USD Japanese yen Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Wednesday 27 March 2024 07:31 The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, moved within a narrow range on Tuesday, displaying a lack of clear direction, but ultimately managed to eke out tiny gains. Mixed US Treasury yields and a sense of caution among market participants contributed to the muted price action, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of high-impact events on the US economic calendar later this week. DXY index Source: TradingView The release of core PCE data on Friday, the FOMC’s preferred inflation gauge, holds particular significance. This data point will provide fresh insights into the trajectory of consumer prices, which policymakers are watching carefully to guide their next move. Additionally, a speech by Fed Chair Powell on the same day will be closely scrutinized for any clues about the timing of the first rate cut of 2024. However, here's the wrinkle: Friday falls on a bank holiday. In addition, some countries in Europe observe Easter Monday. This means the true market reaction to these events might be delayed until the following week. This extended period of anticipation could further add to a sense of hesitancy among investors, dissuading many from making large directional bets until a clearer picture emerges. Holiday trading: managing forex volatility and key levels for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD While Forex trading will continue, but it won't be business as usual. Reduced liquidity, a hallmark of holidays, can amplify price swings at times. Even seemingly routine trades can upset the delicate balance between supply and demand, with fewer traders around to absorb buy and sell orders. Hence, exercising caution is highly recommended for those planning to trade in the upcoming days. Fundamentals aside now, the next portion of this article will revolve around examining the technical outlook for three key currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Here, we'll dissect critical price thresholds that can act as support or resistance in the upcoming sessions – levels that can offer valuable insights for risk management and strategic decision-making when building positions. US economic calendar Source: DailyFX EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD remained relatively unchanged on Tuesday, failing to capitalize on the previous session's rebound and stalling at confluence resistance at 1.0835-1.0850. Should prices face rejection at current levels, a retracement towards the 1.0800 mark might be anticipated. On continued weakness, the focus will be on 1.0725. On the flip side, if EUR/USD resumes its advance and successfully takes out the 1.0835-1.0850 range, bullish sentiment could make a comeback, ushering a move towards 1.0890 in the near term. Additional gains beyond this juncture could reinforce buying interest, paving the way for a climb towards trendline resistance at 1.0925. EUR/USD price action chart Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY displayed rangebound behavior on Tuesday, consolidating after last week's rally and hovering below critical resistance at 152.00. This key level warrants close attention as a breakout could prompt the Japanese government to step in to support the yen. In this scenario, we could see a pullback towards 150.90, followed by 149.75. On further losses, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average. In the event that USD/JPY breaches the 152.00 mark and Tokyo refrains from intervening to let markets find a new balance, bulls may feel emboldened to initiate a bullish attack on 154.50, a key barrier defined by the upper boundary of an ascending channel that has been in place since December of the previous year. USD/JPY price action chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical analysis GBP/USD also failed to build on Monday’s rebound, edging downwards after an unsuccessful push above both trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at 1.2675. Should this rejection be validated in the upcoming days, a retest of the 1.2600 level may be imminent. Further losses from this point onward could prompt a descent towards 1.2510. Conversely, if buyers return and propel cable higher, confluence resistance looms at 1.2675 and then at 1.2700, a key psychological threshold. Overcoming this technical ceiling might be tricky and could present challenges; however, a decisive breakout could reinforce upward impetus, potentially setting the stage for a rally towards 1.2830. GBP/USD price action chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Japanese yen has weakened to nearly 152 against the dollar, a level not seen since 1990. This has prompted warnings from Japan's finance minister about taking "decisive steps" to address "disorderly" currency moves, hinting at potential intervention by the central bank as occurred late last year when similar language was used. The yen's recent depreciation may have been triggered by comments from a Bank of Japan board member advocating a slow pace of policy normalization after last week's first rate hike since 2007. With several central bankers making public remarks during the day, including from the Fed, ECB and SNB, the potential for further market-moving comments remains. The Swedish Riksbank is expected to leave rates unchanged but traders hope for clues on prospects for future cuts. Meanwhile, choppy and directionless trading persists in stock markets ahead of the quarter-end, a key U.S. inflation report, and a speech by the Fed chair on Good Friday when many markets are closed for holidays. U.S. equity futures are indicating a potential up day in Europe while Asian markets were mixed.

The holiday-shortened week may see a lighter front on the economic calendar, but nevertheless, eyes will be on a key US inflation data release this week, the US core PCE price index, to lay the path for the Fed’s rate outlook. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation Federal Reserve Personal consumption expenditures price index United States Technical analysis Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Tuesday 26 March 2024 Holiday-shortened week to leave US inflation data on watch The holiday-shortened week may see a lighter front on the economic calendar, but nevertheless, eyes will be on a key US inflation data release this week, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to lay the path for the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s rate outlook. Major US indices have been broadly taking a breather into the new week – perhaps an expected reaction to the lack of major data, but with traction still found in selected stocks on earning releases. Nonetheless, Wall Street has been remarkably resilient this year, shrugging off the usual weaker seasonality for March and the stronger US dollar to hover around fresh record highs. What to watch: US core PCE price index At the recent Fed meeting, policymakers have revealed some tolerance for slightly higher inflation, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell noting that higher inflation data lately has not changed its overall trend downward and that the path of inflation towards its 2% target will be a “bumpy road”. As such, further easing in pricing pressures ahead will provide validation for the Fed’s decision to stick to its path of three rate cuts through 2024. The US core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to stay unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year. However, month-on-month, it is expected to tick lower to 0.3% from the previous 0.4% in January. On the other hand, the headline PCE price index is expected to tick slightly higher to 2.5% from a year ago, up from the previous 2.4%. S&P 500 technical analysis: Upward trend resumes The S&P 500 continues to trade within a rising channel pattern, with the formation of new higher high and higher lows validating the prevailing upward trend. For now, it seems that the bullish bias will remain, unless the lower channel trendline support gives way to prompt a deeper retracement. Its daily relative strength index (RSI) has also been trading above the key 50 level for the fourth straight month, reflecting buyers in control. On the daily chart, the index has been trading above its Ichimoku Cloud as well, alongside various moving averages (MAs) (50-day, 100-day, 200-day). The only catch is that divergences have occurred at the daily RSI (lower highs on index’s peaks), but the divergence has been playing out since the start of the year and buyers have been taking any opportunities for weakness to buy any dip. Source: IG charts Nasdaq 100 technical analysis: Another touch of record high territory The Nasdaq 100 index has gained some ground after the recent Fed meeting, tapping on the weaker US Treasury yields and continued traction around the artificial intelligence (AI) hype to touch a new record high at around the 18,457 level. Its daily RSI has also been trading above the 50 level since November last year, with buyers successfully defending the key level in mid-March to keep the near-term upward bias intact. Ahead, a continuation of its prevailing upward trend may leave the 19,000 level on watch next, while on the downside, an upward trendline may be immediate support to hold around the 17,800-18,000 level. Source: IG charts Sector performance Sector performance last week revealed outperformance in rate-sensitive growth sectors, as market participants took comfort in the view that the Fed is willing to tolerate some inflation persistence and continue to look forward to impending rate cuts over the coming months. The communication services sector was up 4.8%, with strength in Alphabet (+1.8%) and Meta (+1.2%), while the technology sector was once again heavy-lifted by Nvidia (+7.4%). Notably, in the semiconductor space, Micron surged 24.9% for the week, Broadcom was up 9.2% but AMD was dragged 6.3% lower. Other “Magnificent Seven” stocks were more mixed, with Apple (-1.7%) in the red while Microsoft (+1.3%) and Amazon (+3.0%) offered support. It has broadly been another week of risk-taking, with ten out of 11 S&P 500 sectors seeing gains, while defensives sector (consumer staples, healthcare) saw less traction from market participants. Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv Source: Refinitiv *Note: The data is from 19th – 25th March 2024. Source: Refinitiv *Note: The data is from 19th – 25th March 2024. Source: Refinitiv *Note: The data is from 19th – 25th March 2024. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

FTSE hits a 12-month high after the Bank of England's dovish pivot sparks rate cut expectations, shifting focus to German consumer confidence data. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Consumer confidence FTSE 100 Technical analysis DAX Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Tuesday 26 March 2024 Last week, the FTSE reached a 12-month peak, breaking free from its long-standing range following a dovish surprise at the Bank of England (BoE) meeting. While the BoE kept rates on hold at 5.25% as widely expected, a dovish pivot was provided as two BoE members, Mann and Haskel, who had voted for hikes in February, removed their hawkish dissent. The dovish pivot implies the bar to BoE rate cuts is much lower than previously thought and has resulted in the interest rate market pulling forward, the expected timing of the BoE's first rate cut to June (17 of 25bp priced) from August. There is currently a total of 72 bp of cuts priced for 2024, up from 66 pre-last week's BoE meeting. With a light data calendar this week in the UK and Europe, the focus will be on the release of German consumer confidence data this evening. What is expected from the GFK Consumer Confidence survey (Tuesday, 26 March at 6pm) Heading into March, German Consumer Confidence increased to -29 from an eleven-month low of -29.6. Expectations of ECB rate cuts are starting to filter through into some business sentiment surveys, such as the ZEW, which recently jumped to its highest level in two years. This impact, along with slowing inflation and rising household incomes, should also be observed in upcoming consumer confidence surveys. However as can be viewed on the chart below, a good deal of improvement is required before consumer confidence returns to positive territory. GFK consumer confidence chart Source: TradingEconomics FTSE technical analysis After many weeks of discussing the potential for the FTSE to break higher, it finally hit the after-burners last week, surging 2.63% to a 12-month high of 7961. From here, we expect dip buyers to be active ahead of support, formerly resistance, in the 7760/20 area. We are looking for the FTSE to test and break its all-time high of 8047 before a push towards 8250. Aware that if the FTSE were to lose support at 7760/20 on a sustained basis, it would warn that the break higher has failed and likely see a retest of the 200-day moving average at 7550. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView DAX technical analysis The DAX has had a memorable month, gaining 4.85% in March. This makes it a candidate for some month-end/quarter-end rebalancing selling flows this week. While there are many moving parts to rebalancing, typically, it involves selling the best-performing stock markets, which for March would be Korea, Germany, Japan, and the US, and buying the laggards. Weakness should be well supported initially at 18,000/17,900. However, the more important area of support is at 17,650, coming from the October 14,630 low. Providing this level holds, the uptrend remains intact and with-it expectations of a push towards 18,500. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 26 March 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Markets are cautious ahead of the US inflation data release, with Asian stocks and the yuan slipping slightly on Tuesday, while the yen held steady around 151 per dollar amid warnings of potential intervention. South Korean stocks lead Asian markets higher, though gains in other indices were limited. US futures point to a higher open after a recovery from Monday's lows for tech stocks. US durable goods orders and consumer confidence populate the calendar, though it looks like Monday's quiet session will continue into today.

Earnings season begins in April, and is expected to see a third consecutive quarter of growth in earnings, helping to support the S&P 500 at record highs. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares S&P 500 Price–earnings ratio S&P Global Ratings Forecasting Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 25 March 2024 16:47 For the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings growth of 3.4% year-over-year and revenue growth of 3.6%. This marks the third consecutive quarter that the index is projected to report year-over-year earnings growth. While the overall earnings growth forecast is positive, analysts have lowered their Q1 earnings estimates by 2.6% since December 31st. This downward revision is below the historical average cut to estimates, which ranges from 3.4% over the last 10 years to 3.9% over the past 20 years. However, companies themselves have been more pessimistic in their earnings outlooks. At this point, 70% of the S&P 500 companies that have issued Q1 earnings guidance provided negative guidance, which is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. Strength in IT & consumer discretionary, weakness in energy Breaking it down by sectors, six of the eleven sectors are expected to report year-over-year earnings growth in Q1, led by the Utilities, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. On the other hand, four sectors are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, with the Energy and Materials sectors seeing the largest declines at -27.1% and -23.4% respectively. The Industrials sector is expected to report flat earnings growth of 0%. Looking further ahead, analysts are forecasting earnings growth of 9.3% for Q2 2024, 8.4% for Q3 2024, and a robust 17.4% for Q4 2024. Valuation remains above average The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 currently stands at 20.9, which is above the 5-year average of 19.0 and the 10-year average of 17.7. This elevated valuation ratio reflects the strong price performance of the index. Despite historically overestimating gains, industry analysts are projecting the S&P 500 price will increase by 7.0% over the next 12 months based on their target prices for individual stocks. This projected increase is supported by the positive earnings growth forecasts for the coming quarters. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Hi @Boobiwoobi Welcome to the community, We are happy to have you here. We are here to answer every question you may have and please don't hesitate to engage in forum posts by other members. Thanks, MongiIG

Post-FOMC, US stocks rose sharply. With diverging Fed views and upcoming Core PCE data, market volatility looms. Key indices show strong support. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Inflation Federal Reserve S&P 500 S&P Global Ratings Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 25 March 2024 04:51 US equity markets locked in robust gains last week, aided by a dovish FOMC meeting. For the week, the Nasdaq finished 2.98% higher, the S&P 500 added 2.29%, and the Dow Jones added 761 points (+1.97%). While there were concerns that after a run of firmer data, the Fed might signal it expected just two rate cuts in 2024, the Fed Chair noted that firmer inflationary data had not changed its overall trend lower and that the path of inflation towards its 2% target will be a “bumpy road”. In theory, this reduces the importance of this week's Core PCE inflation data, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. However, at the end of last week, there were signs of some disagreement within the Fed's ranks. On Friday night, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he now expects just one rate cut this year (from two previously) based on the US economy's resilience. This suggests there might be less tolerance for an upside surprise in this week's Core PCE inflation number. What is expected from Core PCE inflation (Thursday, 21 March at 5am) Both headline and core PCE price inflation has moved lower since September 2022. In January, headline inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.6%. Core inflation eased to 2.8% down from 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE prices increased by 0.4%, accelerating from the 0.1% increase in December. In February headline is expected to come in at 0.3% month-on-month, which would see the headline rate remain stable at 2.4%. The Core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM, to leave the annual core rate of inflation at 2.8%. Annual core PCE inflation chart. Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis The signs of a "loss of momentum" noted in recent weeks were negated as the S&P 500 failed to provide any downside follow-through last week, before exploding to new highs. Providing the S&P 500 cash, doesn’t see a sustained break of March’s low’s 5055/5040 area, expect dips to be well supported at 5180 and again at 5100 before a push towards 5350 in the coming weeks. Aware that if the S&P 500 were to see a sustained break of support at 5055/5040, it would warn that a short-term high is likely in place and that a deeper pullback towards 4800 is underway. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis The signs of a "loss of momentum" noted in recent weeks were negated as the Nasdaq failed to provide any further downside follow-through last week before exploding to new highs. Providing the Nasdaq cash doesn’t see a sustained break of March’s low’s 17,750/00 area, expect dips to be well supported at 18,200 and again at 18,000 before a push towards 18.750 in the coming weeks. Aware that if the Nasdaq were to see a sustained break of support at 17,750/00, it would warn that a short-term high is likely in place and that a deeper pullback towards 17,000 is underway. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 25 March 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Central bank moves sparked AUD/USD volatility, ending the week lower. Upcoming consumer and CPI data may steer its next trend. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD Consumer price index United States dollar Inflation Central bank Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 25 March 2024 07:12 Last week's central bank meetings triggered a roller coaster ride for the AUD/USD, closing down 0.70% at .6514. The main culprits behind the AUD/USD's wild ride last week were: The RBA's dovish tilt at its board meeting on Tuesday. Thursday's FOMC meeting, which pointed to a shallow Fed easing cycle. A surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank on Thursday evening. Chinese authorities set a weaker-than-expected USD/CNY fix on Friday, which saw the 7.20 level give way for the first time in 2024. Whether the AUD/USD can find a trend this week will depend on a data-rich local calendar. It starts with the Westpac Consumer Confidence survey on Tuesday; and rolls into the Monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday before culminating in retail sales data for February, which will be released on Thursday. What is expected from the monthly CPI indicator (Wednesday, 27 March at 11.30am) In January, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.4% YoY, unchanged from December and below market forecasts of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose by 4.1% YoY easing from 4.2% in December. Annual trimmed mean inflation fell to 3.8% from 4% in December. The data showed inflation inching towards the RBA's target, but January's CPI, marking the new quarter's start, primarily reflected goods prices, with fewer services costs included.Sticky services inflation has been a key concern and focus for central banks and was highlighted again at this week's RBA board meeting. "The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4 per cent over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated, and is moderating at a more gradual pace," the board said In February, the monthly CPI indicator is expected to increase to 3.6% YoY due to higher petrol and housing prices; and the unwinding of electricity rebates. This is in line with the RBA's expectations of 3.5% year over year over the quarter. CPI monthly indicator chart Source: RBA AUD/USD technical analysis As viewed on the weekly chart below, the AUD/USD continues its choppy sideways price action within a contracting multi month bearish triangle. Downtrend resistance from the January 2023 .7158 high is at .6795c, and uptrend support from the October 2022 .6170 low is at .6320c. The middle of that range, where the price action would be expected to be most choppy, is at .6557, 20 pips above the current price. AUD/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView On the daily chart below, the AUD/USD reversed sharply lower from Thursday's .6634 high before testing uptrend support at .6500c, from the October 2023 .6270 low. For the week ahead, traders will be watching for a break of support at .6500c as an initial indication that the AUD/USD is set to test the year-to-date low of .6442 before a move towards .6320. On the upside, the 200-day moving average at .6553 will provide short-term resistance, with a sustained break above here needed to open up a move towards the next layer of resistance at .6625/35. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source:TradingView. The figures stated are as of 25 March 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

This holiday-shortened week will see the release of the closely watched US core PCE inflation data on Friday, with any higher-than-expected reading potentially dashing hopes for a Fed rate cut in June. Markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance of a June cut and 3-4 rate reductions for the year. Central bank speakers from the Fed, ECB, and BoE will also provide guidance amid expectations of future rate cuts. Meanwhile, the surprise SNB move last week has raised uncertainties, while China's central bank pushed back against a sharp yuan depreciation beyond 7.2 per dollar. Overall, inflation data and central bank rhetoric will drive market movements in a quieter trading week. Sterling watchers will want to keep an eye out for a speech at 2.15pm by noted BoE hawk Catherine Mann, which might push back against the expectations of an imminent rate cut at the BoE.

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week ESTABLISHED 1974313,000+ CLIENTS WORLDWIDE17,000+ MARKETS Week commencing 25 March Chris Beauchamp's insight After the central bank action of last week, this week is quieter, with mostly second-tier data such as durable goods orders and US consumer confidence. Kingfisher, Ocado and ASOS are key companies to watch for this week for UK investors. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 12.30pm – US Chicago Fed index (February): index expected to fall to -0.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US new home sales (February): expected to rise 3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses 11.30pm – Australian Westpac consumer confidence (March): index expected to fall to 84.6. Markets to watch: AUD crosses Tuesday 7am – German GfK consumer confidence (April): previous reading -29. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 12.30pm – US durable goods orders (February): orders forecast to rise 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2pm – US consumer confidence (March): index expected to hold at 106.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 22 March): preceding week saw stockpiles fall by 1.95 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Thursday 8.55am – German unemployment data (March): rate to rise to 6%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 12.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 23 March): claims expected to rise to 212K from 210K. Markets to watch: USD crosses 1.45pm – US Chicago PMI (March): index forecast to rise to 45. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2pm – US pending home sales (February): sales expected to rise 2.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses 11.30pm – Japan unemployment rate (February): expected to hold at 2.4%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses Friday Good Friday – US, UK and German Markets closed 1.30pm – US PCE price index (February): prices expected to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.3%, and 2.4% YoY, in line with last month. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – Fed chair Powell speaks. Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 25 March Tuesday 26 March Wednesday 27 March Thursday 28 March Friday 29 March Full-year earnings Kingfisher Flutter, John Wood Group, AG Barr, Fevertree EnQuest Half/ Quarterly earnings Carnival Smiths Group, Bellway Nanoco, H&M Walgreens Boots Alliance Trading update* Pennon, Pets at Home Ocado ASOS Dividends FTSE 100: Smith & Nephew, Taylor Wimpey, Melrose, Prudential, M&G FTSE 250: Moneysupermarket.com, Travis Perkins, Volution, Ithaca Energy, Primary Health Properties Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 25 March Tuesday 26 March Wednesday 27 March Thursday 28 March Friday 29 March Monday 1 April FTSE 100 4.70 Australia 200 0.8 0.6 0.2 Wall Street US 500 0.63 0.16 0.02 0.15 Nasdaq 1.15 0.17 1.62 Netherlands 25 0.25 EU Stocks 50 China H-Shares Singapore Blue Chip Hong Kong HS50 South Africa 40 190 Italy 40 Japan 225 266.4

European traders may face a sell-off on Friday as equity markets in Asia declined, with investors adjusting their expectations for fewer and later Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Declines were steeper in markets like Hong Kong and South Korea, over 1%, compared to a 0.3% drop on Wall Street yesterday. Japan's tech sector was the only declining sector, but its chip giants' heavy weighting led the Nikkei index to a 0.3% loss. With many markets near all-time highs, and having rallied so strongly, there remains the potential for short-term weakness. The focus remains on Fed rate cut timing speculation, with US producer price data overnight following hot consumer inflation, eroding expectations of a June cut. The Fed's dot plot after next week's meeting will be crucial for gauging their cautiousness. Other central banks like the BoE, SNB and especially the BoJ, with a potential stimulus exit, also meet next week. US Empire State manufacturing and the preliminary Michigan confidence survey are released today.