Caseynotes

New CryptoCred video on Entry Triggers; Published 6th May Hr 1:10.

Ftse looking to break up through 7369.

Dax Option; LT bull, MT neutral, Current bull. Daily ATR 116 points. News; 10:00 EU econ forecast. Possible LOD 12249. T1 12353. T2 12373 (R1). T3 12414 (ATR) Buy Call @strike (12310) for 3 @£10/point - risk £30. Close out trade before market close at 4:30 pm. Summary of yesterday; Buy call yesterday spent nearly the entire day out of the money til about an hour before close when price took off, closed out at plus 3R (3x risk). Reminder that this is on demo and that I've not traded options before and am still waiting for someone to tell me I'm doing it all wrong (which I may well be as the book I've ordered on options trading still hasn't arrived yet ) 😧

Indices get a big bounce off news that China has not cancelled it's planned US visit for the 11th round of trade talks on May 9 - 10.

US oil back up to 63.00 yesterday after the bounce up off 60.00, need to check here and look for a clue as to next direction.

Another dip down after US market close on basically what was confirmation of Trump's weekend tweets of a tariff increase being imposed on Friday. This is inline with Bannons comments in the interview posted in this thread last week, and is said to be a response to China attempting to renegotiate past agreements. Difficult to say which way the markets will break from here but the targets are clear. Nikkei looking the most pessimistic at the moment while Ftse is the least concerned. Dow looks to have found support at the old weekly chart resistance level (red) while Dax is sitting on it's daily chart support level (orange). 7:00 Ger factory orders. 10:00 EU econ forecasts.

The S&P and a strong bull day and the highs are looking very vulnerable. The big corporate earnings reports are out of the way, good recent GDP and NFP figures, not much on the calendar ahead, so expecting to see a run up this week (Trump tweets notwithstanding).

Left Ftse out today being a UK bank holiday but has performed much as Dax.

Dow continuing on to fill the gap with less than an hour to go in the US session, Dax struggling a bit out of hours but making good progress to the pivot. This is a strong bull day and bodes well for the rest of the week.

Today's option worked out well in the end, closed before market close for 3R, even though missed the big rally of the last ten minutes. Both having got above the Daily chart resistance level (orange) should reach higher.

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This is an interesting log scale (2 weekly) chart published end of Jan 19 on bitcoin price in relation to halving dates. Current 1 week chart below that.

Dax making hard work of it with the UK on holiday, those Europeans are useless on their own 🙂 Dax went back down to take another look at the low after the strong open but has since been making it's way back up. Dependent on the US session now to get a lift up above 12246.

US Oil catches a bounce off 60.00, what a surprise who could of seen that coming, er ... well I could, see post of 24hr ago.

This one is more difficult, it could be that both the high and low are already in. Dax has put in a strong London open (on a UK bank holiday) M30 bar and what looks like the session low at 12155 but found resistance at the already tested 12246. So, because there is a gun to the head am looking to target higher at 12350 nearly 2x ATR, but given that price just come down from there seems reasonable if the big move down was an over reaction. The buy call on demo was at 3 for £10/point. LT bull, MT neutral, ST bear, Daily ATR is 110 points.

Markets feeling the Trump effect once again (see posts above). Currently looking to secure support, Dow and Ftse seem to have found something but Dax still trying to feel the bottom.

Dow may have bottomed out at 25955 and there is the possibility of initial market over reaction and a subsequent attempt to fill the gap. Dow currently sitting at 26020 and a move higher should attempt a test of 26175 while tested support is at 25955. Dax still looking for support.

Shanghai Composite down 5.8%;

Who are you talking to? I've been sat here 6 years full time. This forum only started at the end of 2015, I've been posting continuously since March 2016. Who, in any way shape or form is interested in proving any thing to you?

And there he goes again, Trump's tweets of the last hour sends weekend wall street down. Also along the lines mentioned in the Bannon vid above.

Just to update this chart. US Oil has recently put in a lower high and now a lower low but wait, does that automatically mean it has turned bearish? Would you automatically assume a reversal? What would be the most probable scenario from just looking at the chart structure? The most probable next phase is always going to be consolidation, that's a statistical fact, on any chart. V reversals tend to be caused by a fundamental shift and are relatively rare. As we have seen from the SSI thread, trying to pick tops and bottoms is the number one strategy for retail clients, the same guys who are wrong 80% of the time. So looking at just the chart structure where would you expect the bulls to be gathering to mount a serious challenge after their profit taking (and if the fundamentals were encouraging enough for them to even try)? NB; Oil likes round numbers.

Good question, I'm not sure. Also, see this thread

The 10,000 refers to the minimum deposit to open an account in the US not the margin, and different account types require even more. I think the answer on the other thread covers this but sing out if not.

@jruthe3000, yes, they trade by telephone to the dealing desk only.

@Turnip230248, so if you are trading with IG you are trading IG's contracts, I'm not sure IG offer access to the CM exchange even on the DMA platform (you could check). So you would probably need a US broker that offered trades in cme's micro lots. When the US regulator brought in rules to save the poor retail client they not only lowered leverage (not as much as esma) but also brought in minimum account deposits for different account types that range from $10,000 upwards to 25K and I suspect that would still apply whether you were trading micro lots or not or reside in the US or not.