phillo
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Posts posted by phillo
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Important level in my opinion
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there was a lot of interest in this one between Mid Feb & Mid May, those holders must still be there, so they may take some shaking out. 1700 must hold for them. I think they'll hold on for a while, unless there's some sort of market shock
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On 15/08/2019 at 13:45, elle said:
at quite a point here - there was a lot of interest here earlier in the year
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maybe this one still has a little more to go ?
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On 30/09/2019 at 19:43, elle said:
yep, this has caught me, thought Trump wanted it lower ! It's gonna hurt some other countries with $ denominated debt & pegs
going Trump's way now
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On 17/10/2019 at 20:55, elle said:
you seem to set a good set of rules, but I have always found forks a little subjective, even personal. Different people see different ones. Here's mine
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On 30/09/2019 at 15:19, elle said:
All time high
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gave demo a quick go
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could be tricky with a £500 a/c
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1 hour ago, DSchenk said:
Good news. Ross from Warrior Trading is starting over again. With a small account challenge. Starting with $500 !!!
His last small account challenge started about 3 years ago, also with around $500 and he turned it into a million $ within bit over 2 years.
Might be the perfect time to also create a small account and trade alongside him. Should be a good learning experience comparing on a daily basis what trades you took vs him, your profits vs his, etc.
Also for the doubters, like @dmedin who believe it's not even possible to grow a small account to a million - if Ross can pull it off twice within a 5 years timeframe - then everyone can do it. No doubt about it. All you need is passion for the game, concentration, resilience and the right mindset to pull it off.
I'm gonna set-up my demo account today (I'm actually out of cash - wasn't joking earlier) and will focus on US market open for the next couple of weeks. No more indices, commodities, etc. Not sure yet if I'm also gonna give UK market open another try. I guess I got to do something in the morning as well.
If I manage to grow the demo account consistently over a period of 4 weeks, then I'm gonna go back to live.Who else is in giving the small account challenge a try? @nit2wynit, @dmedin, @Mercury, @Caseynotes, @TrendFollower, @elle ...
Should be fun, although it's sometimes tricky to precisely follow someone else's day trades
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9 hours ago, nokuthulan313 said:
Hi Everybody
Iam new here, and a new trader, hopely i will last, please welcome me.
Is anyone has tip for today trade
Hello, I wish you well. What do you think your trading style is ? What assets are you interested in ?
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the link to some original stuff on this topic https://www.andrews-lines.com/
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& this from the same channel ( this is a weekly feature ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHkwcl5sS7Q
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I like this youtube channel Here's a recent video, I think this guys thought process for the first trade was great https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sy6sYzWZCs
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8 hours ago, Guest Trader Martino said:
Forget the charts , trade price from a Macro Economic Outlook over a longer period , build a Long Short portfolio less stress more money.....
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4 hours ago, DSchenk said:
Hi everyone,
so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market.
Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts.
First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle.
Thought Process
I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later.
So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles.Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high".
I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day.
I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high.
Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low.
Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low.
If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy.The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown.
Andrew's Pitchfork
This is where the Pitchfork comes in.
The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later)
The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%)So how does it work
The way I imagine it to work is the following:1) Identify previous day's high and low
2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart.
3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level)
4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns.
Does it work?
Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't.
Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day.
On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs.Next steps
Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly.
Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon)First success
First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL.
You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day.
At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet.
Could've been luck - who knows.What do you think of this approach?
you seem to set a good set of rules, but I have always found forks a little subjective, even personal. Different people see different ones. Here's mine
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clearly, it's the "Deal or No Deal" Line
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Not much you can do ( no shorts! ) but wait
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3 hours ago, elle said:
Stock market turning points - are we there yet?
in Indices and Macro Events
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seemed so