dmedin

So much for Tom's beloved stochastics

Lots of upside to come, sweet cheeks? 🤯

Morningstar thinks BATS has an 'intrinsick vertue' (to use an old political economy term!) of £43, yet it's trading currently at £27. And it has a yield of over 7%. Would you buy and hold? https://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?Site=uk&id=0P00007O1O&LanguageId=en-GB&SecurityToken=0P00007O1O]3]0]E0WWE$$ALL

That's such a s3xy chart, I turned myself on

Possible variation: don't use a 200 EMA as a filter. Just sell overbought conditions and buy oversold ones. Especially when the stochastic crossing happens with a bullish/bearing candle formation.

False

Here's where we are now with DAX. Two fall signals, followed by one good one. The Auto-Fib is turned on here. No buying at the bottom because all the price action here is so far below the 200 EMA that the 200 EMA is off screen.

See? The liberal left are very selfish people. I view them as being merely one side of the ruling bourgeoisie. As long as they can keep their five-figure salaries and keep their 'pets' (BLM), they don't care about massive swathes of people seeing a reduction in their living standards. Workers need unions now more than ever: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-portugal-protests/angry-but-determined-portuguese-workers-protest-for-better-wages-amid-pandemic-idUKKBN26H0V5?il=0

This entire move down is excluded because the stochastic cross occurred when price was still above the 200 EMA. You're lucky if you get sloppy seconds, once the trend is nearly over.

The point of using the stochastic was to get more signals, as using the MACD generates few valid signals (unless you are going to buy on crosses above 0, and sell on crosses below 0). Predictably, having more signals just results in having more bad trades and does nothing to keep you in on trending moves. All indicators are equal: equally bad.

Could be that they are withdrawing their holdings of foreign shares and buying their own? Who knows with these inscrutable Japanese! They do tend to be ahead of the rest of the world.

The search goes on though. Why? With buy and hold we typically have to buy an ETF. There are plenty of S&P 500 ETFs, but few for indices like Nasdaq and Dow Jones. (I found a good Nasdaq ETF, but it's about $500 for a single share.) Also, we have no chance of profiting from shorting unless we buy short ETFs, which are probably more arcane and pointless even than spread betting. Also, we have no exposure to FX or commodities if we buy and hold. But then again, why should a fat smelly punter sitting at home in his underpants (like me) have 'access' to complex financial instruments in the first place

Bottom line: we are wage slaves. We cannot trade ourselves to financial independence. This is by design, and anyone who thinks otherwise has not been educated. 😘

When you're buying £500 a month, you're buying a varying prices. So your 'chunks' of £500 bought during downtrends will give back more than the 'chunks' you bought near the top. If my calculations are right, £25000 worth of shares in that FTSE 100 tracker is 1000 shares which is £43.40 a year in dividends, which even with compounding is absolutely awful, but then again we all knew that the stock market is a gigantic fraud and designed to enrich the wealthy, didn't we

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/etf/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=0P0000WA5M £25 a share, or so. You get 4.34% a year, divided into quarters. £500 a month = 20 shares. Face value of a share is £1? So you'll get 4.34p x 20 = 86.8p in dividends on your £500 after a year. You lucky c&nt But hey, at least you're not a retarded day trader losing all your money

And there's nothing to suggest that these EMAs will keep on working on the DJIA into the future, either. So, we have made another discovery: the same TA approach, applied to different markets, different times, or the same market at different times, provides completely different results.

I see a price whipsawing up and down like a heartbeat monitor. Almost entirely random. I wouldn't go near it even with someone else's money

Chart reading and technical analysis is designed for people who work as advisors to those who have money. Not a single one of them makes money from trading, they are employees or sell training courses. Institutional traders hedge, have access to other people's money and work completely differently to the punter sitting at home in his underpants. To make matters worse, the tiny few that can trade profitably almost never outperform the indices. How much time are you spending on trying to 'read' charts (this is the same as reading horoscopes), and if you are making money, ask yourself 1) am I making money commensurate to the amount of time and effort I'm putting into this and 2) am I making more or less money than if I put money into a tracker and did something else with my life entirely?

Hope you're staying fit and cheerful Tom! Can't see to see those 15 minute charts on Monday!

'Including the dividend' - except you didn't. If the FTSE 100 gives you compounding interest of, say, 4% a year, what do you have at the end of 10 years if you invest £500 per month and the price stays the same? Please do the calculations. My results show that buy and hold absolutely blows moving average strategies out of the water for some indices at least. What have you got to show for us?

Last one. Ditch the requirement for %K to be beneath 80/above 20. It just needs to cross below/above %D when %D is above/beneath 80/20.

Dang! This system also misses out on enormous trending moves - whether using a fixed R:R or waiting till an opposite signal TA is so unbelievably sh!t.

Immediate refinements need to be made. First, don't take a buy or sell signal when the candle is weak (long wicks, small real body, or is contrary to the direction you are about to go in). Don't take a trade when the stop would be too far away (large whipsaw movements). Stop is usually just above/below the immediately previous high/low. Also, instead of using fixed R:R you could try using the opposite condition as the exit trigger (exit long when %K falls below %D from above 80, exit short when %K rises above %D from below 20) 💩

Pretty much. It's like this:

Turns out that you can indeed backtest pivots in tradingview.com. Select 'Go to' to go back in time, pick a date (e.g. 2018-01-01), then click the 'replay' button and select a point to start replaying from. It will recalculate the pivots as it goes. Now, let's see one of you c*nts backtest it. Because it makes no sense to me