786Trader

A correction is due. 11 months pretty much straight bull run, barring one pullback in October that lasted less than a week. Agree, if not now then certainly by the end of June. Possibly a pullback by March, followed by another race to the moon before sanity/common sense/ global shock takes precedent and we all realise just how expensive most everything is. In the meantime, it's just one really stonking party! Until it's not.

Not that I am complaining. So far, almost every long position I have has popped, with the exception of the FTSE or Flat Stonks exchange, as it's been the ugly duckling of world indices for quite some time. From USD weakness to barn storming world and US indices to commodities that have risen to orgasmic heights plus bonds of all descriptions including total junk with stratospheric totally unreasonable valuations and how can we not mention cryptos? Supersized prices and Bears that have chosen hibernation over extermination this winter. What goes up can only keep going up is the new adage. Are we all riding the rocket to the moon? Or will common sense prevail? Or remain effectively persona non grata, as is the current attitude to common sense? It looks like the Casino and all of the amusements and rides to the moon are the mode and trend. It is totally bonkers! I am predominantly an Oil and Gasoline trader and frankly it's been a cash fest. All of my targets for the year have popped. For the year! Dow target popped, Euro targets popped. Popped the lot. Save the loveless FTSE which has still popped stage 1 and 2 of the ladder up. And we are still in lockdown!! Totally bonkers. It's like the worlds economy will be busier than ever and so soon. But this isn't representative of the worlds economy is it? This is the Fed saying it will underwrite the value of almost anything up to infinity and beyond. Naturally, the Fed has limitless money as do all of the other federal bankers across the globe. Unlimited upside. Makes sense surely? It's like the party will never end. So who am I to be a party pooper? I have taken several put options, across the board, as insurance and have started to think of positions to be taken in the extreme short term, as opposed to longer. (Days, weeks, months). It's madness out there. Much reminiscent of 1929 when the world and his wife, not to mention the wife's boyfriend, are stonking their hard earned savings to the moon. Only to get burned? stay safe all. BTW my aunty Janis recovered from Covid. There is an actual Cancer Covid 19 ward... she is over the Covid but still fighting the Cancer.. small mercies.

Have read this thread on reddit. It is interesting and potentially damaging, with a ring of truth to it. The idea of certain Funds counterfeiting shares for the purpose of shorting the market is pretty horrific, then punishment should be severe and swift. To suggest the DTC, Clearing and certain Hedge funds knew of this and conspired together to the same end is also of interest and warrants further investigation. The fact that all of this is over a stock that should cost no more than $30 and cost $4 at the beginning of the year is deliciously ironic. That it is called Gamestop is more so. Whether the SEC actually do anything about it is quite another matter.

The principles of a free market are the same for large corporations and individuals alike. It would seem that GME and AMC have proved that all is not equal, after all. I understand why, in this case it is a simple liquidity problem that shuts out the " little guy" in favour of other large entities. However, the principle is the important matter here. It also seems that because of this, the government would like to start regulating the way markets work. Which rarely works out well for anyone. It is kind of a no brainer to short GME at its current price, even if, ironically, the price will bounce first thing Monday due to the vast amount of cover trades required from many of the hedge funds currently shorting Gamestop.. Not that traders on IG will see any of that action. Which again is somewhat remiss of IG. What is not forgivable is the app and site totally freezing and denial of service when the markets are in super casino mode. Cost me cash combined with quite a bit of angst. I am not big on losing. It's all part of trading, but when you need to trade and can't that's where the frustration and anger begins. Please improve on this IG. Or you will lose clients who will migrate to more reliable and cheaper platforms and I'm not talking Robinhood.

In a significant bear day (all markets) it is reassuring that one is unable to trade.As we know, as day traders, time and speed are of the essence. Unfortunately, the IG platform has completely gone down. This is not the first time and I imagine the trading volumes are very high as there's chaos out there. The technicals all point down without even crazy crypto coin providing any green trades. Certainly on my watch lists. It was due. However, having one's hands tied whilst the ship sinks does somewhat impede ones ability to swim in the storm. Thanks IG.

Ok, thanks Casey. So, empowered drama merchants then (the govt and it's advisors). Have found it pays to be sceptical, though am also a rank pragmatist (for my sins) and am prone to buy the rumour and sell the fact when opportunity presents. It would appear the current reactions to CV19 will inevitably create one mother of a future recession unless alternatives are found. Mind you last time the doo doo hit the fan clever old Bill Bernake invented QE. So lets hope for another similar wheeze this time!

Ironic, when the most unstable of forces (Trump) finally exits, under duress, stage left, the worlds economies get exactly no time to breathe a sigh of relief. For the 2nd Friday in a row, nervous profit taking abounds. Markets , almost in totality are on the move and heading south for the winter (it seems). Naturally the outlier is Bitcoin, which is like the mad cousin at a family reunion where no one is quite sure what they will say or do next. It would appear that markets are becoming aware that the virus is not just going away. Far from it. More of the world is locking down again, even as the vaccines are rolled out post haste. This would appear to give a different complexion to the rosy, the only way is up, opinions of legions of equity traders, who may end up being skinned by forces so much bigger than themselves. Was it ever thus? Perhaps the way of the contrarian may be an apt strategy in this climate of uncertainty. Certainly till spring. Perhaps one may be advised to take profits when they are there and not wait for more. and move quickly. Position traders may have to adapt accordingly, especially if the day of the week ends in "y". It is interesting to see the inflation figures both for the US and Uk. it would appear the trend is on the up. Considerably so in the case of the US. This does not translate so well for equity, but is converse for commodities, especially food. We shall have to keep a ken eye on the weather. Am hedging furiously currently, though am of the bias confidence will return when the (Covid hospital and death) numbers show sustained reduction. For how long is a moot point, but long enough for a decent swing (imo). It's like windsurfing when it's too windy really to windsurf. You either get better at windsurfing, get very wet and a bit scared or, at worse drown. Beware out there, it's blowing a hooley!

As usual am enjoying the posts on this thread. They are informative and sometimes way out in left field. Casey, you sure do your research.... However, my question is; if the PR tests are so unreliable with false positives, how come in summer when there were very few recorded positive cases with a good deal of testing ongoing, were there so few deaths and those in hospital? Currently 1000's are dying everyday from Covid, according to Govt figures. It cannot all be down to testing, can it? Or manipulation of data? Again, on a personal front, my aunt Janis who lives in town (London) has stage 3 lung cancer and is undergoing radiotherapy at Guys hospital. She has also contracted Covid. The hospital (Guys) will not keep her in and send an ambulance to pick her up 3 times a week for her radiotherapy and the same ambulance drops her off at home. She is 75 years old. I am surprised that they have not elected to keep her in. Her son (my cousin) also contracted Covid (probably from hospital) but was fine (ill for a few days then fine). She not so. The reason she has not been kept in may probably be because Guys Hospital is full. They have not said, they just provide the ambulance. The full hospitals are not fake. The Kent mutation is not either. We expected it to mutate, it is a Corona virus, after all. You are correct that there are those who wish to propagate this situation for their own gain and have their own agenda. However, I may contend that the full lockdown and closing of borders should have happened last February, as should a mandated, anonymous track and trace app that should have been obligatory for all. At the end of which all personal data should have been permanently deleted. Instead we have had a series of failures and half measures which have only served to compound the situation. We have showed the world just how incompetent our Brexit loving government really are, when the only core competency required for govt was being a Brexiteer.. (sorry had to bring the calamity that is Brexit into this). In short, I am with you on the moronic govt score and all for the scepticism required to assimilate the Covid response and implications for the economy. Am not with the deniers or hoaxers. This is no hoax. It also detracts from what I am interested in atm which is inflation and commodity appreciation. Stay well and good trading.

As usual, interesting and informative. In response to the question "Who gains", would the response be China? They have certainly cleaned up in the Oil markets (mostly). Their economy has thrived where all others have failed. Honk Kong has been effectively silenced. However, one must temper such rash conclusions with more sustained research. It is true the Dragon(China) has awoken and it's only foil; the Eagle (America) is eating itself, much to the Dragons amusement. The virus is also highly contagious,(as Corona viruses are) mutates like an X man and is randomly deadly to those who are aged, unfit, unwell or plain obese and very occasionally those who are not. But not in every case (my 92 year old grand mother in law, for example, who tested positive, had symptoms but miraculously got better). Go figure. Respecting simple rules makes sense and I agree sustained Lockdown is bad for a nation's health (physical, mental, economic). Also agree our Government has proved themselves incompetent beyond measure, which begs the question of the competency of the electorate in general. I remain moot on that point. However, if one were to re-examine the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 one can easily see the similarities. Including the second wave, which was worse than the first. Curiously enough we are experiencing a second wave which is worse than the first. On the subject of vaccines and their ultra rapid development. No vaccine has ever been developed as fast. We now have 5. In less than a year. Surely this was not just because of the multi billion dollar grants, kudos and vast profits to be accrued? Again more research would be required to ascertain what exactly happened and is happening. Either way, from the pragmatic perspective there is plenty of opportunity and profits to be made in this scenario and at the least, one should take advantage of same said chance. Before the doodoo really hits the fan. Which I expect sometime around September, maybe before. Which will present more opportunities... Stay well and good trading to you.

They don't like losing money. Crypto is a one way bet, until the bubble bursts, which could be months or even years.

Do you not consider the numbers are down because most of the country went into tier 4? Which is lockdown. Emergency and Casualty departments have been empty as people are now afraid to go to Hospital as they do not want to contract Covid. Also, as folk are discouraged from going anywhere or doing much of anything, there will be commensurately less accidents, mishaps, spread of other communicable diseases and general need for triage or emergency services, save for delivery to ever expanding Covid wards.

Agree with the forecast. US is in the middle of a social storm (which should pass). Suspect 18th Jan may be a big day for social unrest as many Trump supporters and other nationalists may feel disenfranchised and demonstrate, possibly violently, their frustrations with the system. This may appear across the country and be interpreted as a negative.

Great data, as usual Casey. Am not crying "witch". It is not a hunt. Maybe a hunt for the truth, yes. Regards personal bias, you have your personal bias, rather obviously. I genuinely appreciate it. However, are you not also looking to affirm your own personal bias in order to reaffirm your own narrative? In this case suggesting those who do not agree are neither scientific nor sensible. I could go further. The virus IS real. That much I contend and maintain, too many people with symptoms that I know and love have had it now. Fortunately, no one has died. There is much that does not make sense and I appreciate the research you are doing. I only question now whether you are doing exactly what you have warned others about doing, that is only believing your own narrative and selecting facts to fit same said narrative. Truth is not exclusive. It is what it is. Either way, stay well and good luck for 2021.

Hi guys, It's forecast and yearly strategy time. Well I'm a tad late really. What does 2021 hold regarding finance, commodities and indices? Personal strategy for 2021 is obviously to not lose money, where possible. Being predominantly an Oil and gasoline trader, I shall start with that. Global stocks and supplies are just about balanced as of now with slight imbalance in US as Covid effects continue to stall demand in key states. However, OPEC+ seem to have their communal act together and are actually acting in unison regarding supply. Naturally, this has increased the price, as intended. Price of Brent crude expected to rise from current level $51.00 to a minimum of $60-$65 by the end of 2021. Price will rise by at least 17% as airlines return to a semblance of normal. A further rise will be caused by USD depreciation and increased demand fed by a gradual return to normal road use, also expect some supply disruption as threats of war or political upheaval threaten the supply chain. All this should lead to an increase of 20-25% over the course of 2021. I expect the price of Gasoline to increase in line with Brent., currently 13850 and expect to see 16500+ by the end of 2021. The Dow. The Dow will continue to be overvalued and even increase by a factor of perhaps 10%. I expect the relative calm of a Biden presidency will be balm and stimulus enough to the markets long used to having to check the Donuts manic twitter (nutter) feed before going to work. I expect a Republican majority of ONE in the senate which will serve as counter-balance to the urges of Democratic fiscal excess. Markets will like this. I expect the Dow to rise to 31500- 32500 maybe higher, before a significant retracement sometime after the summer. FTSE. This year has been a total **** storm for the FTSE 100. Even the trade deal has only served the auto industry and not the Financial Services industries (the golden goose and net £85 billion contribution to the treasury p.a). I expect there to be a satisfactory deal in the end re Financial Services, though with caveats, as the EU is not wild keen on the UK becoming a vast washing machine for tax avoiding EU residents. (The very thought, how dare they even imply....) However, the FTSE IS undervalued. I would expect to see the FTSE rise from current levels 6650 to 7350 possibly even higher. The UK economy will return to some sense of normalcy and with it a rebound in confidence and spending, including in travel and leisure. Trade deals with the USA may be problematic as more folk become aware of the full implications of leaving the EU's common agricultural policy, as US farmers may insist on full access to UK market as precondition to US doing a deal on Financial and digital services, for example, in a classic " pork for pork" exchange which tends to especially please incumbent US politicians. Also, sooner or later Google, Facebook and co are going to HAVE to pay their FAIR share of tax to the Uk economy from which they derive so much taxless profit. Could also prove tricky in trade negotiations. As a result of the considerable in flows of capital into the Uk markets I expect the £ to continue to appreciate from multi year lows. The Cable will reset in Sterlings favour. I also expect the BoE to take first mover advantage and raise interest rates by upto 1%. This will also be beneficial to Sterling and may even boost GDP...I expect Sterling to break the $1.44 , retrench and explode past 1.55 post US negotiations and a deal, even if that is unlikely within the 2021 time-frame. I don't see Sterling devaluing much against USD in 2021. Finally, on the subject of dwarf giants. The price of Zoom and Tesla has astonished many folk in 2020. In doubt is the actual value in the price, the dividend and the whole question of value. Tesla's price suggests it will be the dominant manufacturer of EV's in the world, with no significant competition worth the name. I would suggest that overstates Teslas position. True enough it is profitable, thanks mainly to the grants it receives for making eco friendly vehicles. But it is also vulnerable. It is possible that traditional manufacturers may end up dumping perfectly reliable reasonably priced cars on the market at a time when Teslas are still comparatively expensive. At least 10 years before gasoline vehicles will be no longer available, 15 for hybrids. That's a lot of competition and enough time for several able competitors to rise, consolidate and take on Tesla at its own game. Making Teslas stratospheric p/e as outrageous and unjustified as it appears. It's a possibility. Zoom has millions of users but not enough revenue. It also has competition in the form of Google, Microsoft Teams, Slack, even Facebook. It was Zooms lucky year, not sure it will maintain value or users when comparative new normal returns. Both stocks am liable to short, at my peril, at various points in the year. Wishing all good health and handsome profits for 2021. Happy New year!

Glad to see the torch of conspiracy burning bright on this forum. Can only speak from a personal and local perspective regarding the virus. I can tell you that the hospital admissions related to Covid in our local hospital has gone from negligible (9 patients on December 3rd) to 19 less than a week later to 60 a week after that to over 200 last week. Numbers are available on the NHS website. I have no other information as I haven't seen my friend since we went into Tier 4, who works in admissions at the hospital for confirmation of said numbers. I occasionally text him but he prefers face to face chats when commenting unofficially about his work at the hospital. 60% of the hospital is a no go area and effectively sealed off due to Covid. This new strain is certainly more infectious. It's last mutant hurrah. Regarding vaccines, my wife is on the list and will not hesitate to have it when given the green light to do so by her GP. She feels it will give her piece of mind and confidence when she returns to work from furlough. She considers it safe enough and worth the risk. My son is adamant he does not need it and we believe he is old enough to make his own, balanced, informed choice on the matter, as he is now 15. He has had a cruddy year at school and it's a GCSE year for him. Slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, and all that. Personally, I will probably be obliged to have it, as part of my work used to include international air travel. If the travel returns, I suspect it will necessitate a valid health passport, or equivalent, which will serve to ease any quarantine restrictions or any possible enforced vaccination abroad. Regarding the "underlying conditions" debate. Most adults over 50 have some form of underlying condition. Covid seems to combine with the condition (usually lung or weight related) and do double damage. For those who deny Covid really exists and is some great conspiracy to benefit the nameless dark state, all I can say is; paranoia WILL get you in the end.... I cannot deny the whole episode has been spectacularly mishandled by our esteemed elected politicians, who should forever live in shame (which they won't, of course). Also cannot deny simply respecting a few rules like clean hands, masks and social distancing will and do make a difference to one's chances of catching the virus. Wishing everyone a very happy and healthy and prosperous 2021 and good riddance to 2020.

Bulls can be "bull headed". When whipped up into a frenzy (vaccine and stimulus) they can charge forward seeing nothing infront of them, just a will to move forward with the herd, to pasture green and new (and more valuable). It is understandable. Covid soon to become a bad memory, Stimulus will oil the vast economic behemoth that is the US economy and all will move forward. Dividends will return to pre pandemic levels. We will all buy a Tesla. The Fed will continue to buy bonds and feed the economy with ultra loose economic policy. Unemployment will ease to manageable levels. Trump will concede and the Senate will remain in Republican hands, thereby ensuring no reversing of tax breaks. No downside then? Surely not overbought? If anything under valued? So why the devaluation of the USD$? The ATH of all the indices will only be dwarfed by new greater all time highs. Won't they? Things really are fantastic and will only improve. Can only improve. Ok, so maybe this winter will be a bit tough and the mythical virus may well take more lives and fill to capacity more hospitals. Ok, so the vaccine roll out will take 6 months longer than anticipated and take up may be less than the required 66%. Maybe there are lots of people still unemployed that were employed and contributing to the economy this time last year. And there surely isn't any sign of inflation to upset all of that ultra loose economic policy as commodity prices are rock steady. And the markets are absolutely not overbought again, as retail investors commit ever larger sums of their 401k's into equity markets. No risk there then. Plus the debts from 2020 do not have to be repaid any time soon, or ever, just roll them over with these sweet miniscule interest rates. The property market can only go one way as history shows. I think my rose tinted glasses have been surgically implanted on my face. Gosh am I on trend? Oh no not again.

Just a personal update... My son's school has effectively shut down as most of the pupils are working from home again (isolation) as the virus spreads through the school. 7 children in his year have tested positive, my son not, despite sitting next to one of the infected children in French and another in Music. So far most (5 of 7) of the cases have been asymptomatic. This has necessitated another Covid test for our home. (We are currently in Isolation by association 4.0) Again negative. It would appear the rate of infection is high, but with few actual cases that are not asymptomatic. Makes one wonder what all the fuss is about. I have a friend, who is a male nurse, who works in casualty. Apparently, there is a rush of cases in our A and E. The majority, he says, are middle aged, obese men with diabetes or associated problems. I cannot verify this as am in isolation....like most of the parents in my son's school. Several other schools in the area have had to close down on account of viral spread. Lockdown may have ended for some. But not for all.

I must thank you Casey for being the counter-balance to general consensus. Though you often raise some interesting points , I do wander why 1/3rd of our hospitals are reaching capacity with Covid related issues. Were one to witness firsthand any Covid ward in any Hospital and suggest then that it is all over reaction or group hysteria, I suggest one may seem to appear callous and erroneous in perception. Which is where I have trouble with the whole denial/conspiracy narrative. I understand the scepticism, in fact it is healthy and to be encouraged. However, to then suggest there is a greater global conspiracy at work enters into the Donald Trump/ Qanon school of delusion and self deception. I mention that, as some of your retweets and shares often allude to the same conclusion. Stay well and good luck with your trades.

Many people have predicted the downfall and disappearance of bitcoin They are still waiting. They may have a long wait. It is a currency. It is exchanged for goods, services and other currencies. It is secure. It's value is volatile, which is also its attraction for traders. If one does not want to trade them, then no problem, trade something else. I observe the Crypto market and marvel at it. Personally, it's Gasoline and Oil and by extension the Dow and FTSE that I prefer to trade. Our system of Capitalism is determined by trade, Bitcoin and Crypto are just another part of the cornucopia. It appears to have a life and value of its own.

The Fed wants to ban it or tax it. No central government likes crypto as its a form of financial anarchy.

Very good point, Casey. They see Bitcoin and want to emulate it, or in the case of the Fed try and ban it. Bitcoin and Crypto have DEMAND. A Euro backed or $ backed crypto may not have them same demand, but will also be seen as currency. Crypto's lack of provenance (political and geographic) is a major USP. The market normally wins as governments know too well.

Agreed Bopperz. It is now a currency though. No two ways about it. So view it as that. It is a part of the new paradigm (sorry to use that old naughties word, but it fits). Ok, so you might not like $USD right now because you take a view on the multi trillion dollar Fed debt, or £ Sterling because of the risk of No Deal or the Thai Baht because of potential political unrest... Bitcoin comes without any Government debt. It is radical because it's value is determined exclusively by the market with no government interference or influence. It is also not underwritten by any bonds or gilts. It guarantees no interest. But you can spend it and exchange it for ready money. It is simply another form of currency. You can see why governments are afraid of it and why some want to emulate it. The blockchain principle is secure and reliable. It will become money on your phone, like Applepay or Paypal, but without the politics of provenance. True, the hyperbole is confusing and verges on the ridiculous, but the currency itself...it's here, despite the naysayers predicting its downfall. The world is changing and Bitcoin is part of the change. Have a grand day and good luck on your trades.

One can understand why some investors are reluctant to invest in Crypto. As a Crypto market observer it makes fascinating viewing. Todays 10% fall for example, after a 90% increase since October. Talk about profit taking. Or is this a classic case of Pump and Dump, just on a phenomenal scale and compressed timezone. Either way, doubters must now accept Crypto is here to stay and is bona fide currency. It is also a wild wild ride. If it were an attraction at an amusement park it would come with multiple health warnings and indemnity release forms as mandatory. However, those with Cahones large enough make some pretty awesome margin.

Everyone, it seems accepts the result of the recent US elections, except the President and half of the GOP. Convinced of his own meritless delusions of fraud and other voting chicanery, he now pursues a policy of obfuscation, denial of service and general spite while mad dog Giuliani and even madder Sidney Powell pursue laughable cases in various courts in the vainglorious expectation that 6 million perfectly legal votes will somehow be annulled/ cancelled and cease to exist. This is not to be, though the only realists in the GOP are keeping their own counsel on the subject, thereby enabling the Presidents' persistent delusions. That's the problem when you believe your own propaganda, it is easy to become confused with reality. Apart from hiding rotten fish behind the radiators of the White house and carving his name on the Resolute desk, soon to be ex president Trump is doing his best to make the transition for "sleepy" Joe as difficult as he can. This includes a tacit refusal to provide more stimulus. He has instructed Steve Munchkin to end funding for various emergency programs to the tune of $438 billion., thereby hampering the incoming Treasury secretary before he/she even walks through the door. This has rightly upset Jerome Powell who has the interest of the US economy as his overarching priority. Unfortunately, the President is unmoved by the needs of the American public as he feels they have betrayed him. Why reward treachery? Trump is known for his heartless ardour when crushing those he deems as unworthy, which in this case is the American people as a whole, overcome as he is with nihilistic zeal. Playing golf while ignoring a health crisis , at the same time as full denial in the face of outright defeat, does not an effective president make. Indeed, might I venture his very legacy as president and future GOP kingmaker hang very much in the balance, indeed may have been irretrievably lost. Like Trump, lost with nowhere to go. Though he will surely be welcomed in Turkey, Russia, not to mention North Korea. The markets really want to break higher and gap up to new ATH's but Trumps intransigence, denial (of Covid and the election results) and general spite ( no new stimulus)are causing a state of intermarket bearish divergence, with the SP and Nasdaq refusing to break into new ATHs(all time highs). I guess we will have to wait until he is forced out come 20th Jan.

When was it ever not thus? They are holding cash as they sense the next down turn and realise equity is too risky. So holding 20- 30% in cash makes sense in tumultuous times. Also, how can you tax it if it is constantly on the move? Obscenely wealthy companies, individuals and families do not like paying tax as they fundamentally distrust govt (comes from bribing so many of them, I suppose). Also, holding cash means that when bargains come along, the money is there to put a down a deposit, leaving one free to borrow the rest at just over zero% interest. Win win. Nice work if you can get it.